The Cleveland Guardians’ 3 options with Amed Rosario at the trade deadline
By Zack Meisel
Jul 29, 2022
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ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. — Months ago, even weeks ago, Amed Rosario seemed destined to don another uniform. When Cleveland dealt Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco to the Mets in January 2021, Andrés Giménez landed the lead role. Rosario was the supporting actor, a placeholder keeping shortstop warm until one of the Guardians’ umpteen middle-infield prospects forced his way onto the big-league roster.
A funny thing happened, though. Rosario kept hitting. He kept contributing in the clubhouse, where a major-league-toddler-filled roster believes it can win the division.
And so Rosario just … stayed. The guy renting the Airbnb changed all the locks, lowered the blinds, disconnected the phone lines and is lounging on the couch with his feet resting on the living room coffee table. This is his kingdom now.
A Rosario trade once seemed inevitable. But as he has become an integral part of the Guardians’ AL Central contention bid, moving him this summer has developed into a dilemma for the front office.
If the team faced more of an uphill climb toward playing meaningful late-summer baseball, or if Gabriel Arias and/or Tyler Freeman were performing at an undeniable level at Triple A, or if Rosario wasn’t deemed a leader on the league’s youngest roster, this would be a different discussion. Another team could present Cleveland with an irresistible offer before Tuesday’s trade deadline. But what was once seen as a foregone conclusion has become far more complicated.
Giménez garners the attention because he’s younger, has a higher ceiling, wields a more reliable glove and made the All-Star team. Yet Rosario has weathered a slow start for a second straight season to form the team’s flourishing table-setting duo with Steven Kwan atop manager Terry Francona’s lineup. The two opened the series opener at Tropicana Field on Friday night with back-to-back singles, a familiar sight lately.
Amed Rosario has slashed .294/.330/.405 with 28 extra-base hits. (David Berding / Getty Images)
It’s easy to identify Rosario’s faults. If he were infallible, a trade never would have been a consideration. He doesn’t walk much and doesn’t hit for much power, which explains his glowing batting average (.293 entering Friday, versus the league-average mark of .243) but only slightly above-average on-base and slugging percentages. He delivers his value via singles and hustle and hustle-caused singles. He does have 10 stolen bases and a league-high six triples.
Coaches have raved about the example he sets on the basepaths (as well as his influence on José Ramírez and younger teammates). And, really, his profile is representative of the team’s identity. The Guardians pride themselves on making a lot of contact, stringing together hits and applying pressure on the defense with their base running.
Rosario ranks in the 97th percentile in the major leagues in sprint speed and the 87th percentile in strikeout rate.
Rosario’s strikeout rate, 2021: 20.4 percent
Rosario’s strikeout rate, 2022: 14.6 percent
He has never been lauded for his defense at shortstop, but he has made strides over his 2021 showing. He has totaled five defensive runs saved (compared to minus-9 last year) and ranks in the 43rd percentile in Statcast’s Outs Above Average metric (compared to the 17th percentile last year).
As a result, Rosario has already amassed 2.1 fWAR this season, nearly matching his mark of 2.4 from last season. It’s all left the Guardians with three options when determining how Rosario fits in their master plan.
Option 1: Trade him before the deadline
The central theme driving the conversation: Is Rosario more valuable to the Guardians or another team? Given how this season has unfolded, the answer is trending toward the former, especially if you ask those in the dugout or clubhouse.
Obviously, everything hinges on what Cleveland could acquire for him. To trade Rosario, there would need to be a suitor that can’t stand to go on without his presence in the lineup, spurring them to offer a return that team president Chris Antonetti can’t refuse.
There’s also the thought in the front office that Rosario was never part of the long-term blueprint, with a farm system stocked with middle-infield prospects. And this is a group that examines each decision on an individual basis; short-term sensibility doesn’t always win out over the sometimes-painful long-term play.
There hasn’t been much buzz about the infielder trade market. Rosario hasn’t demonstrated much defensive versatility, though he’s been willing to audition in the outfield in a couple of short-lived experiments in left and center. On the infield, he hasn’t strayed from short. That could limit his market a bit. But maybe some team covets his bat and wants increased production from the shortstop position, and it doesn’t want to wait until the offseason to court Carlos Correa, assuming he opts out, or Trea Turner.
Teams with the worst offensive output from their shortstops in 2022 …
Angels: Another year wasted with two otherworldly talents, making them sellers and not a match here.
Orioles: An impressive turnaround, but they don’t seem like a fit for a short-term shortstop.
Diamondbacks: Still building up, so not a fit.
Nationals: A team dangling one of the league’s top hitters won’t be in the market for a short-term answer.
Phillies: They have Didi Gregorius, though he’s been dreadful at the plate.
Giants: They might wind up being sellers, not buyers.
Tigers: They’re basically having an estate sale.
Pirates: Still building up, so not a fit.
Rays: No one ever knows what they’re up to, and Wander Franco is sidelined for a while, though this is the one team Cleveland hasn’t outwitted in trades in recent years.
Cardinals: If they land Juan Soto or they prefer to have Tommy Edman bounce around, they could be an option.
Padres: A.J. Preller is always interested in any player available for trade, though they might have more pressing needs.
A’s: They’re tearing down, not adding.
Yankees: Isiah Kiner-Falefa has essentially been a poor man’s Rosario at the plate.
The question is, even if the front office committed to shipping out Rosario, does any contender have something worthwhile to offer the Guardians? They already boast a top farm system, with many of their well-regarded prospects only a step or two from the majors.
Option 2: Trade him this winter
This might be the leader in the clubhouse for one of the leaders in the clubhouse. Delaying the decision gives the Guardians more time to evaluate Arias and Freeman (or trade one of them), and Rosario could still fetch them something moderately useful with one year of control remaining.
Rosario, 26, is in line to earn somewhere in the neighborhood of $7 to $8 million via arbitration next season. After the 2023 campaign, he can become a free agent.
The downside to this option is the club needs to start learning about Arias and Freeman as soon as possible because Brayan Rocchio and Jose Tena aren’t far behind. But that’s easier said than done, with the division title up for grabs.
And, by the way, there’s another 40-man roster crunch lurking. So dealing Rosario for a couple of prospects who need to be protected from the Rule 5 draft will only contribute to the front office’s headache.
Option 3: Just keep him
Sometimes you search far and wide for love, and it was under your nose the whole time. Is Rosario the guy for whom the Guardians have been searching? There’s no guarantee any of the prospects eclipse his output or fit better with the team’s style of offense. But that’s where the organization must trust its evaluations and prospect projections.
Freeman carries the most similar hitting profile, but he’s probably best suited for second base or a utility role (which could work, since Giménez is more than capable of handling shortstop). Arias is more susceptible to whiffs, but is more highly regarded defensively. He’s had an uninspiring season at Triple A, though, stemming, in part, from injuries.
Part of the calculus is how other teams value Cleveland’s prospects. If there’s a disparity — if another team, hypothetically, treasures Freeman, but Cleveland isn’t high on Freeman — there’s an opportunity to capitalize on that contrast in evaluations. The Guardians can package a few prospects and land an established player at whichever spot on the roster they desire (think catcher or starting pitcher). On the other hand, there are constraints to Rosario’s trade value because of his contract situation and the already-exposed limitations to his profile.
It still seems doubtful Rosario will be the club’s shortstop in 2023, but that was also the case before the 2022 season. And yet, here he is, still wearing a Cleveland uniform, for at least another few days, and perhaps a few more months.
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