Guardians mailbag: Andrés Giménez’s future, José Ramírez’s MVP chances, trade talk
Cleveland Guardians' Andrés Giménez runs leaves the batter's box after hitting an RBI double against the Texas Rangers during the second inning of a baseball game Wednesday, June 8, 2022, in Cleveland. (AP Photo/Nick Cammett)
By Zack Meisel
CLEVELAND — To your questions (which have been edited for clarity and length) …
What will it take for Andrés Giménez to get playing time against lefties? It’s frustrating to see a 23-year-old who has made massive improvements and leads all second basemen in fWAR get platooned with Ernie Clement. Do the Guardians see him as a long-term solution for one of the middle-infield positions or are they just trying to slowly grow his confidence? — Josh C.
I asked manager Terry Francona about that this week, the art of gradually offering young hitters more opportunities to prove they can handle an everyday role.
“I’ll have people ask me from time to time,” he said, “like, on the street: ‘Why don’t you hit (Steven) Kwan first?’ Like, back in April. We’re trying to develop this kid, and I want to make sure that when we do something, we’re not setting a young player back. I talked to Giménez earlier in the year because he was the kid who felt like he had to get three hits or he wasn’t going to be playing the next day. I said, ‘Hey, there are going to be some days … you’ll grow into it. So don’t be trying to do too much.’ I think, more often than not, that’s how everyday players get to be (everyday players).”
For the last two weeks, Giménez has played every day, no matter the handedness of the opposing pitcher. (As he should.) A primary objective for the Guardians this season is to identify core members of the roster, the guys Francona can pencil into future lineups. Giménez has capitalized on his opportunity in the first half. He should be (and, very recently, has been) rewarded with more chances.
There’s also this:
Giménez vs. RHP in 2022: .318/.361/.533 slash line
Giménez vs. LHP in 2022: .318/.348/.432 slash line
José Ramírez has finished top six in AL MVP voting four times. (Ken Blaze / USA Today)
What are José Ramírez’s realistic chances to win AL MVP? — Andrew S.
It won’t be easy. Rafael Devers, Mike Trout, Aaron Judge and Yordan Alvarez are having exemplary seasons. Ramírez deserves credit for having such a diverse skill set: He hits for average and power, walks far more often than he strikes out, runs the bases at an elite level and typically plays above-average defense. But it’s a crowded competition this year in the American League. He’ll need a second-half surge to stand out. (The following stats are as of Tuesday morning.)
Devers: 4.2 fWAR, 176 wRC+, .995 OPS
Judge: 4.0 fWAR, 179 wRC+, 1.006 OPS
Ramírez: 3.9 fWAR, 178 wRC+, 1.000 OPS
Trout: 3.8 fWAR, 188 wRC+, 1.038 OPS
Alvarez: 3.4 fWAR, 198 wRC+, 1.053 OPS
It’s pretty wild how similar the numbers are for each player. Depending on your preferred criteria, you could probably build a case for any of the five at the moment.
What is the Guardians’ record this year with and without Franmil Reyes? Does he even fit in their lineup anymore? Even if he returns to his usual slash line, his all-or-nothing approach is clearly something the organization is trying to shy away from. — Alex J.
Entering Tuesday’s action, Cleveland was 17-23 when Reyes played and 19-10 when he didn’t. Only the A’s and Tigers, by far the two most pitiful offenses in the league, have socked fewer home runs than the Guardians. So, they need some oomph in the middle of the order. But Reyes hasn’t provided that this season. He carried a .314 slugging percentage into the doubleheader against the Twins, only a slight upgrade from the muscle (or lack thereof) the team has received from its catching corps.
Reyes’ hard-hit rate of 55.2 percent ranks in the top 2 percent in the majors, so when he hits the ball, he does so with authority. He just … doesn’t hit the ball with enough frequency. Only Rays outfielder Brett Phillips owns a worse strikeout rate.
Reyes’ track record would suggest a reversal of fortunes is coming, but it’s worth wondering what his future holds. He’ll be due — at minimum — $4.55 million this winter via arbitration. The club controls him through the 2024 season, but there’s a horde of position players angling for major-league plate appearances if his struggles persist.
For the first time in a long time we have outfield talent in the bigs and below. What area of weakness needs the biggest upgrade to be true long-term contenders? — Rob A.
This feels strange to say regarding this organization, but … how about the starting rotation?
The Guardians’ approach to the trade deadline will be fascinating. The front office will demonstrate over the next five weeks how strongly it believes this team can hang around in the AL Central race. The Guardians have a glaring need for a catcher who can hit his weight; those are scarce in today’s game, but there should be at least a couple of them available at the trade deadline. They could use another reliable arm in the bullpen, too.
Those are the immediate needs, though, and you asked about long-term upgrades. This front office targets players with an abundance of team control. There are enough intriguing middle infielders and outfielders in the organization to satisfy those positions. If the Guardians can land an unquestioned improvement in the outfield — an All-Star caliber player — that would be worth pursuing. But it doesn’t seem to be as pressing of a need as another top-line starter.
In a year or two, Daniel Espino, Gavin Williams and Logan Allen could usher in a new era of talented Cleveland rotations. Until then (and maybe beyond), the club could use someone to pair with Shane Bieber on the front end. The Guardians’ rotation entered Tuesday’s doubleheader ranked 19th in the league with a pedestrian 4.20 ERA.
If you had to extend one position player and one pitcher right now, who would they be? — Michael J.
Can I opt to re-extend Ramírez?
This is a trickier question than it might seem. I considered Giménez because he’ll be eligible for arbitration after next season and it might be prudent to secure him to a long-term deal soon.
But I’ll instead surprise you with a different answer, a player who hasn’t even reached Triple A: George Valera. I’m no prospects expert, but I think he’s a safe bet to be a productive major leaguer, at worst someone who will hit for power and whose patience will translate into a healthy on-base percentage.
Before he stepped onto a big-league diamond, Luis Robert signed a six-year, $50 million contract (with club options that could make it an eight-year, $88 million deal) with the White Sox in January 2020. This winter, I’d at least explore if Valera were open to a similar arrangement, probably a bit less pricy because Robert was widely deemed a top 10 prospect in the sport. If the two sides could hammer out a deal, the Guardians wouldn’t need to worry about manipulating Valera’s service time next season.
Much of what makes this topic difficult to answer is we know little about each player’s preferences. Valera did receive a $1.3 million signing bonus when he joined the organization in 2017.
As for the pitching side, I’m inclined to still lean Bieber, since he’s unearthed ways to remain effective despite the velocity drop, but the terms of any pact would have to look awfully different than they would have 12 to 18 months ago. There isn’t another obvious answer. A month ago, I might have said Triston McKenzie, but only Toronto’s José Berríos has surrendered more home runs this season.
Would you expect the Guardians to move at least one of their middle-infield prospects at the trade deadline? Wouldn’t it make sense to move at least one of Tyler Freeman/Gabriel Arias/Brayan Rocchio/Jose Tena? — Collin B.
For sure. Those in the front office know they’ll need to deal from that surplus this summer or this winter. There’s a Catch-22 with all of this: That prospect you’re eager to see in the majors is probably the prospect other teams would covet, too. In their ideal world, the Guardians will identify a team that values their prospects differently than they do internally.
Freeman and Arias should be major-league options pretty soon, and there isn’t room for both of them — especially with Amed Rosario still occupying the shortstop position. So, at some point, the front office needs to settle this logjam. But even with that pressure, it still needs to be the right trade. Timing is everything. They’ll want to deal a prospect when his value is high.
Am I the only one excited about the schedule changes in 2023? I am sick of hearing how weak the AL Central is, as if the teams don’t play the entirety of April in freezing weather. — Alex J.
I’m with you. I’ve been asking for this for years. It’s one thing to battle your division foes with regularity, but the disparity — playing division opponents nearly three times as often — is too great. A more balanced schedule can give us a clearer understanding of how to compare teams in different divisions.
Plus, the new format will allow fans to see more MLB stars on a regular basis, which is sorely needed.
Here’s how the schedule will look:
• 14 games against each division opponent
• Six games against each non-division league opponent
• Four games against a league-appointed rival
• Three games against each of the other 14 teams from the opposite league
So, instead of visiting Cleveland maybe once or twice in his career, Ronald Acuña Jr., for instance, should play at Progressive Field every other year.
Do you think Will Benson or Alex Call will get a shot with the big-league club at some point? — Elizabeth A.
Call will turn 28 in September and although his walk/strikeout rates fit the team’s M.O., he’s probably better suited for a shot with a team that doesn’t have such a crowded position-player picture.
Benson is interesting. The 2016 first-round pick just turned 24. He’ll never hit for average or make a ton of contact, but he possesses plenty of power, walks a lot (fueling his .401 on-base percentage), steals bases and can handle all three outfield spots. Those tools could make him a compelling fourth or fifth outfielder, someone a manager would want pinch hitting or pinch running when a late home run or stolen base is needed.
What are your splits looking like on diaper-change times? Do you think a change clock would help you speed up the process? In all seriousness, welcome back Zack! — Nathan D.
The difference between pitching and changing diapers is that when changing a diaper, you don’t get sticky stuff on your hands until after you start your motion.
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