Twins-Guardians series preview: AL Central rivals meet for key stretch of games


Minnesota Twins' Luis Arraez, left, makes it safe back to first base against Cleveland Guardians first baseman Owen Miller (6) during the third inning of a baseball game Sunday, May 15, 2022, in Minneapolis. (AP Photo/Stacy Bengs)
By Zack Meisel and Dan Hayes

An important stretch of games awaits. The Athletic’s Guardians beat writer, Zack Meisel, and Twins writer Dan Hayes break down this AL Central matchup.

Meisel: Dan, these conversations are always more lively and enjoyable when both teams we cover are involved in the AL Central race, rather than slogging through the summer outside of the playoff picture.

Perhaps to the surprise of many, that’s where things stand in late June, as the Twins and Guardians, the top two teams in the division standings, begin a stretch of eight games against each other over 10 days.

Had I told you three months ago that on June 21, the Twins would lead the AL Central, you would have said …

Hayes: Hello, Zack. First and foremost, I’d like to wish you a belated Happy Father’s Day. I hope you’re wise enough to not raise your child a Browns fan, unless one of your goals is to teach him early on that life isn’t fair.

As for three months ago, well, the ink on Carlos Correa’s deal hadn’t dried yet. Word of his stunning $105.3 million contract broke in the early morning hours of March 19. Everyone had just begun to comprehend the magnitude of that deal. How in the world did the Twins and Carlos Correa wind up in a sentence together other than one that read, “Yankees slugger Correa ends Twins season”?

After finalizing that contract, the Twins made more moves, adding Chris Archer, Chris Paddack and Emilio Pagán. Aside from the Byron Buxton extension on Dec. 1, the Twins’ offseason occurred almost entirely from March 12 to April 7.

It was clear early the Twins had some good vibes, almost immediately in fact. Correa lit a fire in the clubhouse upon arrival. But even then, who’d have thought the Twins would make this much of a turnaround? Cleveland, I’m not as surprised by because they always have pitching and a smart coaching staff that gets the most out of its roster.

What say you?

Minnesota Twins
38
30
.559
---
Cleveland Guardians
34
28
.548
1.0
Chicago White Sox
31
33
.484
5.0
Detroit Tigers
26
40
.394
11.0
Kansas City Royals
23
42
.354
13.5
Meisel: These aren’t the two teams I expected to be sitting atop the division at this juncture. In Cleveland’s case, this was supposed to be another season of auditions. Only, so many of the auditions have gone well that the team has played its way into contention. With a stocked farm system and the major league’s youngest roster, many in the organization figured the team would be well-positioned to factor into the October equation next year and in subsequent seasons. Well, it appears as though the Guardians may have arrived early.

This isn’t the traditional Cleveland “dominant pitching and juuuuust enough hitting” team, either. The Guardians boast an offense that proves proficient by stringing together singles and doubles with a bevy of high-contact hitters. The starting pitching has rounded into form over the last month after early-season shakiness. And, you probably haven’t heard of any of their relievers outside of Emmanuel Clase — Jhoan Duran’s chief competitor on the velocity leaderboard — but the bullpen has flourished. The last time you saw Eli Morgan, Sam Hentges and Enyel De Los Santos, they were … not the fire-breathing dragons into which they have blossomed.

What’s been the key to the Twins’ fast start? Do you think this is what Derek Falvey and company envisioned, or are even they a bit surprised?

Hayes: I think the Twins hoped that a refurbished roster could reignite a core of previous winners. I don’t think they thought they had any chance to sign Correa when the offseason began or even when it resumed after the lockout ended. But when it was apparent they could get him, they leapt into action and signed him 14 hours later.

Through that signing and the trade for Gary Sánchez and Gio Urshela, they now have a club that really enjoys playing together again. That wasn’t the case last year. Bench coach Mike Bell’s death at the end of March and the COVID-19 protocols — and the team’s April outbreak — sapped the joy and then Alex Colomé happened. It was brutal and over before May 1.

Basically, a great defense and a good offense have helped the Twins survive despite having as many as 16 players on the injured list two weeks ago. They’re just getting back to health in the starting rotation, which is key with Cleveland right on their heels.

I think they’ve shown the front office enough that it will try to add more pitching for July because the team is not going to get to October without more arms. How has this start perhaps altered the Guardians’ plan for next month?

Meisel: More than anything, it has increased their options. Look, they’re going to have to execute a significant trade this summer or this winter (or both). They have too many well-regarded, young middle infielders who have either reached the majors or are on the doorstep. They’re always on the prowl for controllable assets. If they can snag a long-term solution for their rotation, bullpen or outfield, that’s eternally on their agenda, and that was the original focus for this year’s trade deadline.

But the more the Guardians win and nudge their way into contention, the more they can explore short-term help. Catcher has been a sore spot, but if they believe in prospect Bo Naylor’s leap this year, then maybe they’d prefer to deal for someone who is under team control for only 2022, or maybe 2022 and 2023. Suddenly, improving immediately might actually be a priority.

I wouldn’t have predicted that in March. Or when the Guardians were 19-24.

This seemed like Chicago’s division, with everyone else at various points in a painful rebuild or an expedited recalibration. And yet, here we are.

Hayes: And where these teams are is decidedly better than a year ago. Obviously, they’re both being propped up by the fact that Detroit and Kansas City haven’t taken the steps forward they were supposed to, and the White Sox haven’t been able to get out of their own way just yet.

But I still think Chicago’s talent will eventually shine through in time to impact this division. There are just too many good arms in the starting rotation and the bullpen, and plenty of bats in the lineup to believe the little mistakes that have hurt them so far will continue to drown them.

I like what I’ve seen from the Twins so far. Their swagger and Buxton’s powerful display have been entertaining. If they can get another starting pitcher and a reliever, they are a bona fide playoff team.

How do you see this playing out for the Guardians, and what do you expect from the next 10 days?

Meisel: Well, they’re returning their two biggest disappointments from April/May, Aaron Civale and Franmil Reyes, from the IL. If they rebound from their wretched starts, that would provide an enormous lift. The pitching will be key for Cleveland. The rotation has recovered after an uncharacteristically sluggish start, and they’ll need those starters to continue to chew up innings so the team can survive its upcoming schedule.

The Guardians play 29 games in the 27 days leading into the All-Star break. That includes three doubleheaders, all against AL Central foes.

Obviously, if either Cleveland or Minnesota makes life miserable for the other over the next 10 days, that could loom large in the division standings. Stakes! In late June! A year ago on this date, Civale suffered a finger injury, which jumpstarted Cleveland’s downfall. The Twins were 10 games under .500.

Eight meetings in 10 days seem much more enticing this way.

Cleveland Guardians: The case against trading Amed Rosario
by Steve DiMatteo2 hours ago Follow @steve_dimatteo

Shortstop Amed Rosario has been a popular name included in potential trade scenarios for the Cleveland Guardians, but here is why the team would be wise to keep him.

Amed Rosario’s name comes up a lot when talking about potential trade scenarios for the Cleveland Guardians. It’s not surprising why – everyone under the sun knows Andrés Giménez is a better defensive shortstop, and the experiment of Rosario playing more left field this season fell apart almost immediately.

And, of course, the Guardians have an absurd glut of middle infield talent ready to break into the majors – guys like Gabriel Arias, Tyler Freeman, and Brayan Rocchio will soon be pushing for playing time in Cleveland if they aren’t eventually traded themselves.

And as Rosario struggled out of the gate this season offensively, the calls to include him in a trade – any trade – got louder and louder. But even as the future might look bright for the Guardians’ infield, the team would be far better served keeping Rosario, a beloved member of the clubhouse, a part of this group for as long as possible.

Why shouldn’t the Guardians trade Amed Rosario?
Right now, Rosario is in the midst of a hot streak at the plate, having just had his 12-game hitting streak snapped Sunday following an 0-for-5 day in Cleveland’s 5-3 victory over the Dodgers. Still, since May 30, he is batting .329/.333/.494 with a homer, six doubles, and two triples, raising his season batting average nearly 40 points. He’s gotten hot at the perfect time too, slotting into the second spot in the order after rookie Steven Kwan was pushed down in the lineup.


At the age of 26 – Rosario is still very young himself – he’s beginning to put together his best season in the majors. Rosario’s xBA of .287 is the highest of his career and he’s striking out just 14% of the time, the lowest mark of his career. He’s still working his way out of the depths of his ice-cold start to the season, but he’s been one of Cleveland’s most important hitters during the team’s recent run of six straight series wins.

That all being said, Rosario’s cold streaks can be just as frustrating as his hot streaks are exciting, and when that’s happening, the patience for any of Rosario’s defensive miscues among fans is razor-thin. But that’s not so much the reason why plenty of people peg him as a trade target. Most people simply see Rosario as a man without a true position, soon to be pushed out by any one of the highly touted prospects in the minors.

That day may ultimately come, but it’s putting immediate trust in prospects who may or may not pan out at the major-league level, or at least start hitting day one, and there’s no guarantee they’ll do so as well or as better than Rosario, who has a 96 OPS+ in his time in Cleveland to date. That’s a tick under league average, but parting ways even with a league-average bat in the name of a prospect at the same position is a tricky proposition when the decision isn’t financially motivated.

We often make assumptions about prospects and how they’ll perform at the major-league level, and fans are often far more willing to part ways with a known commodity for an exciting unknown. But baseball being the immensely difficult sport that it is, a move like that certainly doesn’t always pan out. And with the Guardians already being the youngest team in the league now in the midst of a surprising season of contention, they can afford to tread more carefully in any acquisition they attempt to make.

Perhaps more importantly as well, the Guardians control Rosario’s services for another season, and even in arbitration, he should come at a favorable price for Cleveland.

There’s no denying Amed Rosario is in a weird position considering the current construction of the Guardians’ roster and what it may look like in another season or two. And the day may come where it makes perfect sense to trade Amed Rosario, but right now, Cleveland’s best move is to do nothing at all.

Most people simply see Rosario as a man without a true position, soon to be pushed out by any one of the highly touted prospects in the minors.

And the reverse interpretation is that he is a very valuable man of all positions.

We often make assumptions about prospects and how they’ll perform at the major-league level, and fans are often far more willing to part ways with a known commodity for an exciting unknown. But baseball being the immensely difficult sport that it is, a move like that certainly doesn’t always pan out.

This is very well put and the bottom line now that this team is contending leading into July.

civ ollilavad wrote:

Most people simply see Rosario as a man without a true position, soon to be pushed out by any one of the highly touted prospects in the minors.

And the reverse interpretation is that he is a very valuable man of all positions.

If you can hit, you will be in the lineup, no matter where.

Grips and gripes: MLB tests new sticky stuff in minors, but some pitchers object
Evan Drellich

Editor’s note: An earlier version of this story incorrectly stated which ball the Southern League used in phase one of testing. It used a mudded ball, not one with a gripping agent early this season. The story has also been updated with new information about the Southern League returning to a mudded ball.

Recently, two of Minor League Baseball’s three Double-A leagues entered the second phase of an experiment being conducted by the commissioner’s office.

For all of the 2022 season, the Texas and Southern Leagues have been using the same baseball as major league teams do. This is a change in itself, because MLB uses different balls at most levels of the minors than it does in the majors. But the heart of the experiment lies in what’s being put on the ball before it enters the field of play. Substances from two vendors, the materials science behemoth Dow (formerly Dow Chemical) and a smaller company, Chalkless, were to be tested in different portions of the season, people with knowledge of the experiments told The Athletic.

In the Texas League, one of the gripping agents was applied to every ball for the first two months of the season. During roughly the same period in the Southern League, a mudded ball was used — the standard finishing for baseballs across the sport — making it a control of sorts in the test.

Recently, the Southern League switched over to a ball with one of the gripping agents, a planned second phase of the test. But MLB halted the usage of the ball with the gripping agent in the Southern League after about two weeks, multiple people with direct knowledge of that league said. Both the Southern and Texas leagues are now using the mudded ball.

MLB’s intent was to run the test throughout the 2022 season, conducting one phase with a mudded ball, one phase with one vendor’s substance, and another phase with the other vendor’s grip, in differing order depending on the league, sources said. But following the halt in the Southern League, it was not immediately clear whether MLB will again use one of the vendor’s substances this season or use only the mudded ball for the rest of the year. MLB declined comment.

This is not the first time MLB has conducted such an experiment in a game setting, after introducing one of the substances in the Arizona Fall League last year. Some players, however, have found the process burdensome.

Players in the majors and minors alike have never used bright and shiny balls straight out of the box; they’d be too slick. That’s why mud became standard. MLB has long had a rule forbidding the application of additional substances to the ball aside from rosin, but its enforcement was lax for a long time, and pitchers steadily took advantage — not just to enhance grip, but to improve the performance of their pitches. That problem seemed to reach its apex in 2021, when MLB directed umpires to physically check pitchers for substances regularly, a practice that’s since been modified but is still in place.

Even before last season, though, MLB was investigating whether something better than mud was available. The league wants to see if there’s a way to achieve more consistency from ball to ball, with increased grip that does not simultaneously inflate spin rates and pitcher effectiveness too much. MLB’s goal is to increase the entertainment value of the sport, and increasing balls in play creates more action.

The league does not feel it must make a change, however.

“We have a ball that has served the sport well for decades and we have taken a number of steps to make the baseball the most consistent it has ever been,” said Morgan Sword, EVP of baseball operations at MLB, in a statement. “While we continue to explore solutions to add tackiness without materially increasing spin rates, it’s a very hard thing to get right, and we have set a very high bar for success.”

MLB would rarely want to implement something untested in the major leagues if it can be avoided, hence the test in the minors. But the experiments they’re running in the Texas and Southern Leagues this year have drawn the ire of some players and staff.

“It’s horrible, to be completely honest,” said one pitcher in those leagues of the ball that had a gripping agent applied.

“I hated it,” said a pitcher with another team in those leagues. “A lot of guys had problems with it, for a number of reasons. Sometimes it was fine, other times it was really an issue.

“There was an overwhelming reaction of positivity when they let us start playing catch with these newer balls,” he continued, referring to the standard mudded balls that were brought out last week. “Everybody was pretty fired up.”

MLB declined to provide specific feedback it has received from the leagues, citing a concern for the integrity of the test.

“Our best attempts so far are popular with some and not popular with others, just like our current ball is popular with some and not others,” said an MLB official. “It’s a very challenging effort.”


Umpire Mark Carlson does a routine check on Orioles pitcher Tyler Wells in May (AP Photo / Julio Cortez)
MLB started to explore alternatives to the current ball before the 2021 crackdown on sticky stuff. Dating to 2019, league officials said, the commissioner’s office was investigating differently designed balls, including some modeled after those used in Japan and Korea. But those builds did not win over enough players in the U.S.

Any additional grip on the ball has the potential to affect the attributes of a pitch, to make it spin and move more than a mudded ball. But MLB is not worried that either Dow Chemical or Chalkless’ agent will create a pronounced effect tantamount to that of, say, Spider Tack, which was particularly strong and a popular choice among pitchers heading into 2021.

“You’d ultimately be making a tradeoff between slight changes in performance and improving consistency and, honestly, player adoption,” a second league official said. “If you really felt like pitchers preferred the ball more, you could live with a small change in spin. If you feel like you’re not getting a real improvement in kind of the reaction from players, your tolerance is going to be lower.”

Before MLB started checking pitchers for illegal substances last season, the ratio of a pitch’s spin to velocity reached its highest point on May 20, 2021, at 24.89. That figure is a seven-day rolling average, and indicated high usage of illicit sticky stuff. By July 1, once MLB started enforcing the prohibition on substances, that figure had dropped to 23.63, a drop the league considered significant. But it climbed back to 24.13 at the end of the 2021 season, and entering Friday was at 24.05.

The higher that ratio is, the more effective pitches become. In the Statcast era, pitchers that have thrown four-seam fastballs at least 500 times and had a spin-to-velocity ratio better than 26.00 have a 22 percent strikeout rate on the pitch. Pitchers sitting below a ratio of 24.00 had a 19 percent strikeout rate on the fastball.

MLB first met with Dow Chemical during last year’s All-Star week. William S. Stavropoulos is the owner of a minor league team in Midland, Mich., the Great Lakes Loons, and also a former CEO of Dow, headquartered in the same city. He brokered a connection, and Dow started to develop a substance specifically for the sport.

Dow is a prominent company, and originally introduced the brand Ziploc, among others. But it also has run afoul of environmental laws, agreeing to pay a $2.5 million penalty in 2011 for violations at its complex in Midland. Last year, another settlement committed Dow to spend $294 million on reducing air pollution in Louisiana and Texas, and there are other examples in its history. MLB declined comment when asked about Dow’s environmental history.

MLB did not address what is in either company’s substances, citing proprietary formulas and the league’s own minimal knowledge of them. Chalkless, which markets to athletes across other sports, brought a product to MLB that was already on the market that has since evolved as the businesses work together. On the bottle of a product Chalkless features on its website, silica silylate is the only listed ingredient. “Doesn’t make things sticky, makes them less slippery,” reads promotional copy on the site.

Chalkless acknowledged it is working with MLB, but did not provide comment for this story.

“As a leading materials science company, Dow works closely with customers around the world to imagine better and tackle tough challenges,” Dow spokesperson Kyle Bandlow said. “However, Dow does not comment on pre-commercial innovations being conducted, owing to the proprietary and confidential nature of such innovations.”

The second MLB official said the league did due diligence on safety matters because pitchers will lick their fingers.

With the regular mudded balls, teams apply the mud themselves before games. But that leaves variability in how much mud gets applied (and potentially, room for teams to try to influence the performance of the ball). Dow and Chalkless are both applying their tack before the balls are shipped to teams, removing a step from the process, which MLB likes.

If MLB did adopt one of the new substances, it would mean moving away from the rubbing mud it has used for almost three-quarters of a century, which comes from an undisclosed location in New Jersey, gathered by a mom-and-pop operation, Lena Blackburne Baseball Rubbing Mud. A message left for the company was not returned by the time of publication.

Ultimately, the new grips have to work and win over players. An MLB official said the commissioner’s office is aware of concerns over the impact of switching between three different balls in a given season.

“We sent the balls to the clubs well in advance of their incorporation into games so that there’s an opportunity to incorporate them before they’re used in games,” the second official said. “And you wish you could do this in a way that wouldn’t require you to actually test in games before you were confident that you had an answer. But unfortunately, we just need a large enough sample and you need feedback from enough pitchers, where it’s really hard to get the information you need … without doing it like this, in games. Where you can see what the impact is.”

The walk rates in both leagues the Texas and Southern Leagues have been elevated compared to the full-season numbers from last year. Pitchers in the Texas League last year walked 4.0 batters per nine innings, and this year were averaging 4.6 entering play Sunday. That’s the highest the walk rate has been in the Texas League in the last 16 years, and the second-biggest increase year-over-year in that time frame.

In the Southern League, the rate has climbed from 3.6 last season to 4.2 per nine entering Sunday. That’s the highest walk rate in the last 16 years, and also the biggest year-over-year increase — and three times as large as the second-largest year-over-year increase.

For comparison, the Eastern League, the only other Double-A league in the sport and a league where testing is not underway, went from 3.6 per nine last season to 3.9 this year.

A player development staffer in the National League said it was true for his team that the tacked-up balls were provided in advance. But a pitcher with a different organization said that was not the case for his group, and that they had to start sneaking balls from the game allotment so they could adequately prepare.

“Especially for the first couple weeks, guys really didn’t have any idea where the ball was going. You could tell,” the pitcher said. “Our relievers who came in from the ‘pen would warm up with a regular baseball because we didn’t have access to the tacked balls outside of the game environment.

“We had to start stealing baseballs from the game ball bag and hiding them in our sweatshirts from the bat boys who are running out the balls, and then we would keep them in a separate bag and only use them in the bullpen for our guys who are about to come into the game so that they would have a feel for where the ball is going.”

During spring training, the commissioner’s office asked some pitchers to throw a bullpen with tacked balls. But that process struck one pitcher who did so as odd.

“They came to me before my scheduled bullpen that day, they were like, ‘Hey, they want to try out some tacked balls, would you be ok with that?’” said the pitcher. “I was like, ‘Sure, whatever.’ And so I go through my catch play before the ‘pen using the ball fine. Feels a lot different than a normal baseball, but that’s kind of what I’m expecting. I get up on the ground and the first pitch that they want me to throw is a slider or something, and all the pitching coaches are like, whoa whoa whoa.

“In a bullpen environment, it’s pretty much established that you start off with fastballs and work into the ‘pen, and they were like, ‘Well, we have this predetermined script that we have to follow.’ And I was basically like, ‘You know, this is my bullpen, I’m going to throw my five fastballs or whatever, and if it messes up your data, I really don’t care.’ So that was the first sign that like these really guys really don’t know what it’s like to be a pitcher. They’re just here trying to collect data in a vacuum.”

Said an MLB official in response: “There were baseball people involved in every step of the test, including a former Major League pitcher, to ensure player safety considerations. The test was designed to be a collaborative environment, with pitchers fully warm and ready to go before beginning the test sequence, and player preference incorporated.”

Both pitchers said that the tacked-up balls were inconsistent.

“I don’t know whether it was, if it was extremely humid it made it worse, if it was extremely dry it made it worse, or you need to have just a little humidity?” one said. “Often times I could look in my glove after an outing and it would just be coated — looked like someone sprayed baby powder in my glove from all of the powder that was coming off the ball into my glove and into the catcher’s glove.”

Said the other: “The problem that I had comes when the balls are not stored properly … all of the spray that they put on it kind of deactivates after a while, and then it just turns into dust and it feels like you’re throwing a snowball, basically.

“It wears off on the ball after about three pitches, three to four pitches. The ball goes back to feeling like a normal pearl, like an old-school regular baseball. Which is what I prefer. And so I started telling all my infielders, like, ‘Hey, if a ball gets hit’ — usually they want to throw it out and get you a new ball. But in reality, the more time you can throw those balls the better-feeling they become.”

Club staff, meanwhile, have concerns from a player development perspective.

“Negatively impacting spin rates, negatively impacting vertical movements, spin efficiency,” the player development staffer said of using a ball with a gripping agent. “I think there was some unintended movement of offspeed pitches for that reason. But it definitely negatively impacted fastballs on multiple occasions.

“There were some guys who were really really affected by it, some guys who weren’t. For the guys who were really affected by it, they’ve pitched a couple times (with the mudded ball) and have been the person that we knew they were going to be. It’s pretty frustrating for us in a lot of cases, where I don’t think we are getting a true evaluation of a guy’s total ability. Because he’s being handicapped by something that’s completely out of his control.”

One of the reasons MLB chose Double A for the tests this year rather than a lower level, an MLB official said, is to minimize the number of times pitchers switch balls in their career. Had MLB done the test at the Single-A level, then pitchers climbing the ranks would have had to use a major league ball at Single-A, a minor league ball in Double A, then a major league ball at Triple A or the majors.

The club staffer noted that some pitchers who normally didn’t have control problems newly appeared to.

“A big issue we ran into with a few of our guys, guys who never had issues with walks or command or feel or anything like that, basically as soon as you get sweaty the ball would just get slippery,” the staffer said.

It’s not just the actual ball with a gripping agent applied that has thrown players for a loop. The fact that they are participating in an experiment does not sit well with some. Both pitchers, as well as one player agent, volunteered the same term: “guinea pigs.”

Other rule changes are also ongoing in the minors, including tight enforcement of the pitch clock, which one pitcher noted can have some interplay with the ball.

“When we first started getting the new balls, you could doctor them on the spot how you wanted to if you just rub them up, or if you swipe the grass with your hand and then rub them up for 10 seconds. But the pitch clock didn’t allow for that,” one of the pitchers said, describing attempts to remove some of the grip from the ball. “That’s a scenario where throwing multiple rule changes in at once really screwed us.”

MLB has been soliciting feedback through some in-person visits to teams, and through questionnaires emailed to players.

Were MLB implementing a test in the major leagues, it would at the very least be discussed with the Major League Baseball Players Association. But the MLBPA, which declined comment, does not represent most minor league players. Harry Marino, the executive director of the non-profit Advocates for Minor Leaguers, criticized the experiment.

“In any fair system, Minor Leaguers would have to consent to being used as test subjects for prospective Major League rules changes,” Marino said in a statement. “In exchange, Minor Leaguers would be able to negotiate for increased compensation — after all, the data gathered from rule experimentation with Minor League players is immensely valuable to MLB. Instead, MLB imposes such experimentation without consent, at no additional cost. This is fundamentally unfair and needs to change.”

Speaking to a group of sports editors, including those from The New York Times, Manfred in May left the door open for a new substance to be in place in the majors for 2023. This month, the first league official said that while it would not be impossible to implement a change for next season, it’s not likely at this point.

It’s unclear whether MLB would be able to unilaterally implement a new substance without approval of the Players Association. It likely would fall under the jurisdiction of a newly formed competition committee that includes appointees from both the union and the league, and on which the league controls the majority votes. But at least for now, industry sources suggest the process is unlikely to arrive at a showdown or a point where MLB moves without player support. MLB and the union have been in touch about the experiments, and MLB typically would not have incentive to make such a massive change without major league players’ buy-in.

Said one of the pitchers: “Pitching at the highest level is hard enough with as few variables as possible. And I think that this is not an insignificant variable that’s been thrown into the mix.”

The player development staffer said if he had the choice, he would halt the experiment.

“Double A is just too high of a level to start doing this,” he said. “In my opinion, every ball should be the same ball for every single level. … Doing it to these guys who are right on the cusp of getting into the big leagues seems pretty irresponsible to me.”

The Athletic‘s Eno Sarris contributed research to this story

seagull wrote:

civ ollilavad wrote:

Most people simply see Rosario as a man without a true position, soon to be pushed out by any one of the highly touted prospects in the minors.

And the reverse interpretation is that he is a very valuable man of all positions.

If you can hit, you will be in the lineup, no matter where.

For sure seagull. And Amed Rosario can handle the bat. He moves the ball around. And busts it down the first base line at high speeds.

Tend to forget too this guy is only 26. He only looks 46.

If he shaved that 10 pound beard, he'd run a little faster.

The elements that have elevated the Cleveland Guardians to first place



Jun 22, 2022; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Cleveland Guardians outfielder Oscar Gonzalez (39) celebrates scoring the eventual winning run against the Minnesota Twins on a sacrifice fly by infielder Owen Miller (6) during the ninth inning at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports
By Zack Meisel

The Guardians are 17-4 in their last 21 games. They’re 7-1 on their tour of the United States, a trip that began in the Rocky Mountains, continued to Hollywood and is wrapping up a short ride from the Mall of America.

They’re outscoring opponents 35-13 in the ninth inning, and 10-4 in extra innings. The “Guardiac Kids,” as I’ve seen a few readers dub them, have mounted 15 come-from-behind victories. In high-leverage situations, they own a .795 OPS as a team, 22 percent better than the league average.

They have completely reshaped the tenor of their season, expedited the club’s contention timeline and revamped the conversation about the trade deadline. Let’s dive into some of the elements that have fueled the team’s surge in the standings, in this edition of Meisel’s Musings.

1. Remember when the bullpen was a pressing concern for Cleveland? Aside from Bryan Shaw, Emmanuel Clase, a rookie in 2021, is the most seasoned reliever on the roster. And yet, before the Anthony Castro debacle Wednesday, the Guardians boasted the second-best bullpen ERA (2.86) in the majors, behind only the Astros. Now they’re at 2.96, which ranks third, behind the Astros and Yankees.

That 2.96 mark would be the third-lowest ERA by Cleveland relievers in the last 45 years. Only the 2017 bullpen (2.89 ERA), which featured Cody Allen, Andrew Miller and Shaw, and the 2005 group (2.80) — when Bob Wickman, Bob Howry, Rafael Betancourt, Arthur Rhodes and David Riske were a driving force behind the club’s 93-win campaign — sit ahead of the current outfit.

Who would have predicted that, even at this juncture of the season? The emergence of Enyel De Los Santos, Sam Hentges, Trevor Stephan and Eli Morgan has equipped the coaching staff with plenty of intriguing, capable options, and that’s before James Karinchak rejoins the mix and Nick Mikolajchak or other minor-league options enter the conversation. Even Anthony Gose, the converted outfielder who as recently as two years ago was working odd jobs — including planting plastic flamingos in peoples’ front yards in the middle of the night — has thrived recently. He threw two scoreless innings in relief of Triston McKenzie on Wednesday and has limited opponents to a .368 OPS over his last eight appearances.

The Guardians should still at least explore the reliever market at the trade deadline — this unit will be challenged over the next few weeks, from a workload and opponent standpoint — but they have built a solid foundation.


Enyel De Los Santos celebrates after finishing off the Dodgers last Friday. (Kirby Lee / USA Today)
2. De Los Santos was the club’s splashy offseason addition. No, really. He was. It was a punchline all winter, but team president Chris Antonetti and general manager Mike Chernoff can unleash an evil-toned bout of laughter, because De Los Santos, signed to a minor-league deal last December, has been a savior in the bullpen.

He has routinely cleaned up messes in serving as a bridge to Morgan and Clase, and owns a 2.75 ERA and a 2.31 FIP with a healthy strikeout rate. He has gained about 1 mph on his fastball velocity, too, as it has averaged 95.7 mph this season.

The 26-year-old struck out plenty of hitters last year with the Phillies and Pirates, but he permitted flocks of base runners. Now, he’s another notch on Cleveland’s reliever resurrection belt, a leading candidate to join the fraternity of rejuvenated castoffs that includes Dan Otero, Jeff Manship and Scott Atchison. De Los Santos ranks in the 97th percentile in the league in strikeout rate.

Hitters against De Los Santos’ fastball

2018: .293 average, .537 slugging percentage
2019: .286 average, .429 slugging percentage
2021: .333 average, .625 slugging percentage
2022: .196 average, .326 slugging percentage

His slider has given hitters fits, too. They own a .158 average against the pitch and have whiffed on 39 percent of their attempts to hit it.

De Los Santos began his career with the Mariners. They dealt him to the Padres for veteran reliever Joaquín Benoit in 2015. The Padres traded him to the Phillies for infielder Freddy Galvis in 2017. The Pirates claimed him off waivers from the Phillies last September. The Guardians scooped him up and invited him to spring training just before the lockout commenced. Maybe he’s finally found a home.

3. And then there’s Clase. He leads the league with 32 appearances, 17 saves and the advanced metric “ability to not have his fan base ready to chug a handle of whiskey every time he pitches the ninth.” When was the last time Clase entered a close game and your heart rate soared or your palms got sweaty? He’s been automatic.

We could cite all of his ridiculous velocity-based numbers, but perhaps this is his most impressive statistic this season: He has issued only four walks. He thrives at limiting hard contact because his 100 mph cutter tails away from right-handed hitters and spins uncomfortably toward lefties, and because his slider averages 92 mph. So, when he can locate both pitches, as he has this season, it’s nearly impossible for opponents to piece together anything worthwhile.

4. Hitting coach Chris Valaika, to The Athletic recently, on rookie right fielder Oscar Gonzalez: “His at-bats have gotten better the deeper in the game, especially off back-end bullpen guys. You see him grind out those at-bats, take his hits the other way. I’ve been really pleased with where he’s at.”

Lo and behold, Gonzalez delivered twice in the late innings Wednesday to spur the Guardians to a wild 11-10 win. He launched a go-ahead two-run homer to left in the seventh inning off Twins reliever Jharel Cotton, who entered the game with a 1.76 ERA. In the ninth, Gonzalez knotted the score at 10 with a two-run single off Griffin Jax, who must be tired of the Guardians after three consecutive rough outings against them this season.

Gonzalez ultimately grounded into a double play in the 10th inning Tuesday night, but he fouled off six consecutive pitches from Twins closer Jhoan Duran that ranged from 85 to 100 mph before succumbing on the ninth offering of the duel. On May 29, Gonzalez forced Tigers closer Gregory Soto to throw nine pitches, all ranging from 97 to 101 mph, in a ninth-inning encounter. That was his 12th career plate appearance.

It’s difficult to gauge where Gonzalez’s career is headed. He built a reputation in the minors for hitting for power, racking up strikeouts and rarely drawing walks. In the majors, he’s slugged two home runs in 24 games, both in his last 13 plate appearances. Instead, he’s excelled at smacking sharp grounders and line drives through the infield — not what you’d expect for a 6-foot-4, 240-pound kid who led the farm system in homers in 2021.

“He does have bat-to-ball skills, but there was some swing-and-miss, some chase (in the minors),” Valaika said. “Since he’s been up here, I think he’s handled his at-bats exceptionally well. He’s controlled the strike zone. You’ll see some aggressiveness early, but the way he can lock in (during) his at-bats and finish his at-bats has been really impressive.”

As long as Gonzalez keeps hitting, he could delay Nolan Jones’ big-league arrival and force the front office to look next month at another area of the diamond to upgrade.

5. Pop quiz: Which pitch has Shane Bieber thrown more than any other this season?

A. His fastball, which lacks the sizzle it used to carry
B. His curveball, which continues to stifle hitters
C. His slider, which has induced the highest whiff percentage of any of his offerings
D. His sales pitch, to upper management, for a long-term contract extension

The answer is C, his slider. He’s thrown the pitch 41 percent of the time, a bit more than his suddenly pedestrian fastball. Bieber’s drop in velocity has been well-documented, but he’s found a way to remain effective even with diminished zip.

Take a look at Bieber’s annual output, aside from the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, when he morphed into an unconquerable cyborg en route to a unanimous Cy Young Award.

2019: 3.28 ERA, 3.32 FIP, 4.7% BB rate, 30.2% K rate, .663 opponent OPS
2021: 3.17 ERA, 3.03 FIP, 8.1% BB rate, 33.1% K rate, .672 opponent OPS
2022: 3.00 ERA, 2.71 FIP, 5.7% BB rate, 26.5% K rate, .662 opponent OPS

Really, his 2020 was the anomaly, statistics-wise. And to this point, his 2022 numbers are just as strong, if not stronger, than any other full non-2020 season.

2020: 1.63 ERA, 2.07 FIP, 7.1% BB rate, 41.1% K rate, .495 opponent OPS

Now, this doesn’t mean we should ignore the velocity plunge or the swing-and-miss decrease. Those trends are justifiably concerning, especially for long-term projections. But perhaps a 12-start sample under unique circumstances two years ago raised expectations to unfair heights. Bieber is still performing at a high level, even if there are more flyouts and groundouts and fewer strikeouts, and more sliders winding away from right-handed-hitters and fewer 94 mph fastballs dotting the outside corner. He could be an All-Star again this summer, just as he was in 2019 and 2021.

6. Myles Straw needed to be shifted to the bottom of the lineup. A sub-.300 on-base percentage wasn’t cutting it from the leadoff spot. But it was critical to have a deserving replacement at the top of the order, and Steven Kwan fit that description. Kwan has rebounded after a dreadful May, which followed his scorching-hot April.

April: .354/.459/.500 slash line
May: .173/.271/.253 slash line
June: .367/.400/.417 slash line

Overall, his on-base percentage stands at .365. He leads the league in strikeout rate, just ahead of teammate José Ramírez.

Guardiac Kids! Not bad....

Guardiac Kids: I'll share that one with my baseball friends.

Article by Ken Rosenthal

Warning: Don’t trade with the Guardians


Ken Rosenthal


The Mike Clevinger trade was not seen as a particular triumph for the Guardians when they acquired six players for the right-hander, outfielder Greg Allen and minor-league righty Matt Waldron on Aug. 31, 2020. If anything, the deal was perceived as a win for the Padres, whose acquisition of Clevinger was the fifth trade completed by general manager A.J. Preller in a span of three days.

As it turns out, the deal has proven a bonanza for the Guardians, who have won seven straight series and emerged as a surprising threat in the AL Central while fielding the youngest roster in the majors. In time, it could turn into an even bigger coup for Guardians president Chris Antonetti and GM Mike Chernoff, who according to sources discussed trading Clevinger to the White Sox for righty Dane Dunning and second baseman Nick Madrigal, but ultimately preferred the return from San Diego.

Left fielder Josh Naylor (141 OPS+) and infielder Owen Miller (103) are performing above league average offensively. Right-hander Cal Quantrill (103 ERA+) is an above-average starting pitcher. And catcher Austin Hedges compensates for his below-average offense with superior defense — he is fourth among catchers in Fangraphs’ defensive metric and third in framing — for a pitching staff that ranks seventh in the majors in ERA.

In the deal, the Guardians also landed one of their better prospects, shortstop Gabriel Arias, who reached Triple A at 21, made his major-league debut on April 20 and currently is on a rehabilitation assignment after suffering a broken right hand when he was hit by a pitch on May 1. The sixth player in the trade, left-hander Joey Cantillo, 22, has a 2.04 ERA in 53 innings at Double A. He gained about 3 mph on his fastball during the winter through his work at the team’s development complex, and also features a plus changeup and developing breaking ball. The Guardians believe he has a chance to be a quality major-league starter.

Not bad, huh? Neither was the Guardians’ return from the Mets for shortstop Francisco Lindor, which included second baseman Andrés Giménez, who is outperforming Lindor offensively, and shortstop Amed Rosario, who is tied for the AL lead with four triples and hitting near league average overall.

Oh, and don’t forget one other Guardians heist, from Dec. 2019 — right-hander Corey Kluber, who pitched only one inning for the Rangers in 2020 before becoming a free agent, for Emmanuel Clase, who since has emerged as one of the game’s top closers.

The Padres’ thrill ride under Preller at the 2020 deadline, to this point, has not worked out as well. Clevinger suffered a sprained right elbow late in the season, threw only one inning in the postseason and underwent his second Tommy John surgery that November. He missed all of 2021 and already has made three trips to the injured list — for knee, triceps and COVID issues — in 2022.

A seven-player trade the Padres completed with the Mariners the same day as the Clevinger deal also has been problematic. Catcher Austin Nola is a disappointment offensively, while reliever Austin Adams, currently on the 60-day IL with a forearm issue, set the major-league record in the live-ball era for hit batters in a season … as a reliever.

First baseman Ty France, blocked in San Diego by Eric Hosmer and Manny Machado, has turned into a star with Seattle. The Mariners also landed three other members of their major-league roster — outfielder Taylor Trammell, hard-throwing reliever Andrés Muñoz and catcher Luis Torrens — in the deal.

Look - we have reason to be proud. We have one of the very top organizations in the league. And that is from Ken Rosenthal - not some "homer".

This is an organization that drafts, develops and TRADES with the best of them. Tear it down and rebuild for year after year? NOPE!

Instead just continue to make smart trades and turn the assets into young contributors. Now that is good!

As for Dolan? Isn't he at the top of this chain? Wasn't he the owner when they hired Francona? And doesn't he empower his employees who happen to be great at their jobs?

It is all good - owner included. Blitzer will have bigger money - but we can only hope he doesn't fix what isn't broken. Stay out of that area and let the experts continue to stump the rest of the league.

The secret behind Guardians righty Eli Morgan’s wicked changeup? ‘I’m not giving anything away’

Cleveland Guardians' Eli Morgan pitches during the first inning of a baseball game against the New York Yankees Friday, April 22, 2022, in New York. (AP Photo/Frank Franklin II)
By Zack Meisel

CLEVELAND — Maybe he doesn’t want to reveal too much. Maybe he’s too modest. He’s certainly one of the quieter members of the Guardians’ clubhouse.

But right-hander Eli Morgan doesn’t have a ton to say about his rapid rise from spot starter to setup man or how he has overmatched hitters with a 75 mph pitch.

His catchers have no trouble boasting about him or explaining how the diminutive pitcher who was nearly blown away in hurricane-like conditions in his major-league debut last year now stands confidently on the mound.

“What we call it is that ‘F U mentality,’” Shane Bieber said. “He knows what he has and how to use it, and he isn’t really going to back down. I think that’s an intangible that’s super valuable in this game, especially for a pitcher.”

The key is having conviction in throwing the pitches, and being armed with an arsenal as effective as Morgan’s makes that easier. Morgan started the season as one of the Guardians’ bullpen insurance policies, a guy who could offer several innings at a time after a shortened spring training prevented their starters from fully stretching out.

Over time, with one impressive outing after another, Morgan earned more trust from manager Terry Francona and pitching coach Carl Willis. Mop-up and long-relief duty evolved into shorter stints in critical junctures.

For the last few weeks, Morgan has morphed into Emmanuel Clase’s primary setup man. It’s an unexpected ascent to a role that requires him to clean up other pitchers’ messes, sometimes cover multiple innings and bridge the gap to a closer whose secondary pitch clocks in 15-20 mph faster than Morgan’s off-speed jewel.

Before he surrendered a home run to MLB’s batting average leader, Luis Arraez, earlier this week, Morgan had strung together 20 consecutive innings without allowing an earned run. He limited the opposition to six hits and a .318 OPS during that stretch.

“He’s executed more times than just about anybody that I’ve caught this year,” said catcher Luke Maile, “in terms of percentage of pitches that have been executed.”


Eli Morgan has posted a 2.12 ERA and a 0.618 WHIP with 43 strikeouts in 34 innings. (Kirby Lee / USA Today)
Morgan’s changeup receives all of the attention, and rightfully so. Opponents couldn’t touch it last year, even when they feasted on his fastball and slider. This season, all three pitches are stymying hitters in harmony.

It all begins with the symbiotic relationship between fastball and changeup.

“They see fastball out of the hand,” said catcher Austin Hedges, “and then they recognize changeup but then it just doesn’t get there.”

That’s because there’s an average difference of 16.5 mph between the pitches. Because of the way Morgan releases, and the way he spins the baseball on each offering, the two pitches look identical to the hitter as they travel toward the plate. That doesn’t leave the hitter enough time to decipher which pitch is spiraling in his direction.

Here’s how Morgan details it:

“The big thing with that would just be arm speed. If I’m not giving anything away, they can’t tell coming out of my hand what it might be. That puts me in a good spot. It’s either going to be fastball up or changeup down and ideally, they come out of the same path. That just starts with arm speed, making sure I’m not giving anything away in my delivery that might make them see it, like, ‘Oh, I slowed up a little. Changeup is coming.’ Or, ‘Oh, his face is really tense. Fastball is coming.’ So I try to make sure that they’re both the same during the delivery.”

Look at the 93 mph fastball Morgan threw to Bobby Witt Jr. earlier this month.

And then look at the 75 mph changeup Morgan threw to Witt on the next pitch.

“I can slow you down to have the fastball beat you,” Hedges said, “or I can speed you up with the fastball to let the changeup beat you. It’s just a feel at-bat, really.”

So, you’ll often see hitters flailing at a changeup, fooled into thinking it’s a fastball. But you’ll also see hitters stand idly by as a harmless 91 mph fastball whizzes by in the strike zone, all because they were anticipating a changeup.

“The nice thing with both pitches,” Hedges said, “is you can tell which one they’re on and it’s basically impossible to be both.”

“The best is putting that changeup in the back of somebody’s mind,” Bieber said, “and then executing a fastball off that and freezing them. I think that’s probably the best feeling and he’s started to do that a lot more, which is awesome.”

Maile described it as Morgan essentially always having hitters on the defensive. Even though Morgan doesn’t throw particularly hard — his fastball velocity ranks in the 27th percentile in the major leagues — it’s difficult for hitters to be ultra-aggressive against him.

“When you have a changeup that’s spinning the exact same way as your fastball and there’s 20 mph of separation, it’s just tough to cover,” Maile said. “You add the fact that his fastball has a lot of carry to it and a lot of life coming from a lower arm angle, so it plays even more like it’s rising.”

To further complicate matters for the hitter, Morgan has refined his slider, backing him with a third weapon. The slider carries the highest swing-and-miss rate (38.7 percent) of Morgan’s three offerings.

“The slider is our in-between pitch,” Hedges said, “so we pitch with our fastball/changeup, and once we get guys in between and you show them a slider to get a third pitch in their mind, then usually one of the changeup or the fastball will beat them after that.”

Hitters vs. Morgan’s fastball: .133 average, .300 slugging percentage
Hitters vs. Morgan’s changeup: .133 average, .267 slugging percentage
Hitters vs. Morgan’s slider: .125 average, .125 slugging percentage

These come in relatively small samples since Morgan has logged only 34 innings, especially in the case of the slider, which he throws 12 percent of the time. But the expected metrics on each pitch, based on the hitters’ quality of contact (or lack thereof), suggest the results aren’t a fluke. Morgan’s expected batting average, for instance, ranks in the league’s 98th percentile.

“At some point,” Maile said, “the hitters guess right and they connect. But there have been a lot of hitters who have guessed right and haven’t really connected.”

So, which type of strikeout does Morgan find more satisfying — watching a futile attempt to square up his tortoise-paced changeup, or zipping an unassuming fastball past them?

“I wouldn’t say one or the other,” he said. “I just like getting them out.”

Kwan’s turnaound, bullpen concerns, the amazing Gimenez – Terry Pluto’s Guardian Scribbles

CLEVELAND, Ohio – Scribbles in my Guardians notebook, where I never thought SpongeBob would appear:

1. Steven Kwan is showing he belongs in the majors. Most Guardians fans know he was the American League Rookie of the month for April, batting .354 (.959 OPS). Then came May, when he batted .173. Would Class AAA Columbus be calling in June? Nope. Kwan is batting .364 this month. Pitchers adjusted to him, and he adjusted to them.

2. Kwan has been batting leadoff lately, and that should be his spot. His .363 on-base percentage is second on the team only to Jose Ramirez (.388). A lefty hitter, Kwan is batting .326 vs. lefties and .274 vs. righties. That means he can play every day.

3. On to SpongeBob, who is played in Cleveland by Oscar Gonzalez. The Guardians rookie outfielder loves the cartoon character and comes to home plate to the cartoon character’s theme song. I’m also a SpongeBob fan, so I can relate. And like SpongeBob, the 24-year-old Gonzalez approaches life with an admirable sense of joy.

4. That said, I was at Friday’s game when Gonzalez made a running catch and then threw out a Boston runner at home plate. Guardians radio broadcaster Tom Hamilton called it the best outfield play of the season for Cleveland, and I agree. His throw was clocked at 96.7 mph.

5. Gonzalez was supposed to be a very iffy outfielder. I’ve not seen it. He has some trouble going back on balls, but nothing serious. He’s made other nice catches. He’ll take some poor swings, but tends to regroup quickly. Heading into Saturday night, Gonzalez was batting .311 (.812 OPS) with two homers and 13 RBI. He had 23 strikeouts and five walks in 110 plate appearances.

6. Gonzalez was a power hitter in the minors, where he hit 39 HR in his last 162 games. That will come. Manager Terry Francona and his staff have told him to just hit the ball hard. Don’t worry about homers. Try to hit it to right field. The scouting report on Gonzalez is to bust him inside with fastballs, then throw breaking pitches about six inches outside. He tends to chase those outside pitches in the dirt. Keep an eye on that, but he’s been very impressive so far.

7. Some fans are down on Myles Straw, who is batting only .204 (.565 OPS). But Straw is – by far – the best defensive center fielder in the American League, according to fangraphs. No one else is close. Cleveland has been through several center fielders, Francona always wanting more defense from the position. The manager will live with Straw, just as he does Austin Hedges behind the plate. He considers those prime defensive positions.

8. Will Brennan is hitting .343 (.904 OPS) with two home runs and 22 RBI for Class AAA Columbus. Between Class AA and AAA, Brennan has 61 RBI in 61 games this season. Usually, there would be a campaign to bring him up. But with Kwan and Gonzalez in the corner OF spots, there’s no rush. Let those kids plays in Cleveland.

9. How about Andres Gimenez? He’s only 23 and has emerged as one of the team’s most consistent hitters (.314, .869 OPS). The surprise is his eight homers. Gimenez was only 21 when first reaching the majors in 2020 with the Mets. Traded to Cleveland in the Francisco Lindor deal, Gimenez struggled. Now, his body is maturing. Think “wiry strong” when seeing Gimenez with that quick left-handed swing. He was a top prospect when signed by the Mets out of Venezuela for $1.2 million in 2015 at age 16.

10. The bullpen needs help. I looked to Columbus and saw James Karinchak with a 7.88 ERA. More alarming, he’s walked 11 in eight innings. They sent Nick Sandlin back to Class AAA. In his first outing, Sandlin gave up a walk and homer in two-thirds of an inning.

11. I really like Sandlin, with the sharp sidearm delivery. The second-round pick blew through the minors, pitching only 54 innings. He has a career 2.92 ERA in the majors in 52 innings. But this season, he’s walked 18 in 18 innings, his control growing worse with each outing.

12. The Guardians desperately need Sandlin and/or Karinchak to pull themselves together. The bullpen is under major strain with the games piling up. Closer Emmanuel Clase has been magnificent. Eli Morgan and Sam Henges have been very good. They’ve squeezed a lot out of Trevor Stephen and Enyel De Los Santos. Bryan Shaw had pitched well until lately.

13. The Guardians bullpen ranks No. 4 in the American League with a 3.05 ERA. It has the lowest batting against: .201. They’ve done a good job. But this team plays so many tight, pressure-packed games – more help will be needed.