7 hitters on an upward trajectory
May 14th, 2022
Andrew Simon
Andrew Simon

@AndrewSimonMLB ...

Harold Ramirez, DH/OF/1B, Rays
xwOBA gain: 119 points (to .427)

Have the Rays uncovered another gem? Ramirez is 27 and on his sixth organization, having been acquired in late March for a Minor League infielder from the Cubs, who had purchased him last November from Cleveland, which had plucked him off waivers from Miami before the ‘21 season. In 818 career plate appearances, Ramirez was 10% below league average offensively.

The lefty-mashing Ramirez isn’t playing every day, and he isn’t hitting for power. He still takes his hacks (36.7% chase rate). But his hard-hit rate is in the 92nd percentile, and his line-drive rate has jumped to being one of the game’s highest (33.3%), following the lead of teammates Franco and Manuel Margot (another big gainer). That’s helped him bat .311 with 128 OPS+ for the two-time defending AL East champs.

Checking in on the Andrés Giménez-Francisco Lindor comparison
by Steve DiMatteo21 hours ago Follow @steve_dimatteo


Since the comparisons are inevitable, let’s check in on the 2022 numbers between Guardians infielder Andrés Giménez and Mets shortstop Francisco Lindor.

Even though Andrés Giménez isn’t currently the everyday shortstop, much to the chagrin of Guardians fans everywhere, he’ll forever be tied to Cleveland’s previous starting shortstop, Francisco Lindor.

Giménez, of course, was a key part of the trade package with the Mets that sent Lindor to New York, and the 23-year-old is currently enjoying a breakout season. After a clutch, tenth-inning double that helped the Guardians beat the Twins Saturday night, Giménez is now hitting .326/.344/.562 with four home runs, five doubles, two triples, 20 RBIs and a 165 wRC+ in 93 plate appearances.

Now, because they’ll always be connected and we’ll all always be comparing the two, let’s take a look at Francisco Lindor, who is trying to rebound from a disappointing 2021 season, his first with the Mets. In 154 plate appearances so far this season, Lindor is batting .231/.312/.388 with five home runs, six doubles, 21 RBIs and a 107 wRC+.

Though he continues to walk at a healthy clip of 9.1%, Lindor is currently striking out at the highest rate of his career, at 18.8%. His .252 BABIP and a .255 xBA doesn’t suggest all that much bad luck, either. And since 2020, his last season with Cleveland, Lindor has sported a 104 wRC+ in 822 at-bats, which is above league average, but far below the expectations for a player making $34 million a year.


Lindor’s slash line since 2020 now looks like this: .238/.324/.409 with 33 home runs, 35 doubles, 111 RBIs, and a 102 OPS+.

To be fair, in the case of Giménez, his .385 BABIP suggests an unsustainable clip but the Guardians will certainly take an xBA of .295 should that regression inevitably occur. Giménez has managed to reduce his strikeouts so far this season to a shade under 23%, though he walks less than ever at just 3.2%. That being said, the name of Giménez’s game is to make contact and he’s doing it to great effect, seemingly taking the offensive leap that once made him such a highly-touted prospect in the Mets’ system.

One might say Lindor is too good a player to struggle much longer at the plate, but a large-enough sample size is starting to emerge that suggests the Mets can’t expect him to hit 40 doubles and 30+ home runs every year like he did from 2017 to 2019 in Cleveland. Ultimately, Lindor is probably going to run into a few more seasons of 30 homers and 30 doubles, but it might no longer be the norm.

Given that he’s just 23, Giménez has so much development ahead of him. Nobody is saying the Guardians wouldn’t want Lindor’s bat in their lineup, but at what he’s making salary-wise, Cleveland has to be glad they have seemingly been able to take advantage of a tough situation.

As the Guardians continue to forge ahead with their youth movement, and the Mets set their sights on the World Series, this comparison will no doubt continue to be an intriguing one to watch.

I put up some of those numbers yesterday; I will be surprised if Giminez hits at his current rate but Lindor's drop off is a disappointment for all those of us who like the guy.

As for Harold Ramirez, yeah he can hit, but he can't catch balls hit to him and one DH is all most teams can keep.
Ben Gamel's offense for the Pirates is more of a surprise but I won't shed tears about his departure either.

Guardians pitching gets Terry Pluto notice, too

CLEVELAND, Ohio – My good friend Les Levine passed away on February 3, 2021. Many of you probably remember his “More Sports & Les Levine” show. He usually opened with it his commentary about the local sports scene. He called himself “The Self Proclaimed Voice of Truth & Reason.”
Many times, he was exactly that to those of us who follow Cleveland sports and loved Les.

Les often wrote his opening commentaries in less than 30 minutes. I know. I watched him do it when we did his show together. He was clever and right to the point. Les and I had much in common. Among them, we both loved baseball and believed the Tribe/Guardians were the most underrated and under appreciated franchise in town. I used both names because Les was gone by the time of the name change.

In sense, they always will be Our Tribe to us. OK, a cheap plug to an old book I wrote, but it reflects how we both felt. There was something special to us about baseball. It was like the team was a second family to us. Les would like this team. He’d be engaged watching the young players, surprised at the development of Andres Gimenez, Josh Naylor, Owen Miller and a few others.

But I could hear Les right now saying in a loud voice, “THE PITCHING...”

In fact, I hear the same from legendary sports talk show host Pete Franklin booming down from the heavens: “THE PITCHING...WHAT HAS HAPPENED TO OUR PITCHING???”

You probably been hearing how the Guardians have been near the top of the American League in batting average nearly all season.

As of Monday, they rank first with a .251 team average. They are third in runs scored, third with an OPS of .718.
If I knew Cleveland would rank that high in offense, I’d be certain their record would be better than the current 16-17. “So what’s the problem?” as Les would say. “Pitching...it’s the pitching.”

We are in an era where it seems no one really hits for long. What kind of baseball is being played where the top team in the American League is batting .251? Or the average hitter has a batting average of .233?

We can go into a long debate about the impact of defensive shifts on the game and what seems to be the deadening of baseballs.
But that’s the game right now...

It’s about pitching... Did you know Cleveland’s 4.20 ERA ranked 14th out of 15 American League teams?

I was shocked when I looked it up. In an era where hitters seem lost, you can have pitchers who are near the bottom. Even after Triston McKenzie’s excellent outing Sunday (7 innings, 3 runs) in a 3-1 loss to Minnesota, the starting rotation has an ERA of 4.70! The average American League starter has an ERA of 3.75.

Here is the Guardians rotation and their ERAs: McKenzie (2.97), Shane Bieber (3.72), Cal Quantrill (3.93), Zach Plesac (4.68) and Aaron Civale (9.86).
It’s obvious that Civale’s stats weigh down the rotation. But in the spirit of Truth & Reason, let’s look deeper:

1. Something is wrong with Civale, and not just this season. He had a 10-2 record and 3.32 ERA when he hurt his finger right before the All-Star break. He came back for 26 innings late in 2021 and had a 5.56 ERA.

2. Since the finger injury, Civale has a 7.76 ERA. It’s only 52 innings. Of course, if he’d pitched well, there would be more innings in that span. I talked to Civale late in spring training. He said his finger injury was behind him. Cleveland.com’s Paul Hoynes did some work with analytics demonstrating Civale’s stuff is simply not the same. That’s the bottom line, and it should be a major concern for the front office.

3. In 2020, Plesac had a 4-2 record and 2.28 ERA in the 60-game COVID season. Since then, he is 11-9 with a 4.67 ERA. That 4.67 ERA is high in this era of pitchers dominating.

4. I know Bieber’s velocity is down, but I’m not worried about him. He’s had one bad outing. He isn’t Cy Young caliber right now, but he’s good and likely to improve.

5. Quantrill has a 3.30 ERA since moving into the Cleveland rotation in June of 2021. McKenzie has taken a major step forward.

ARE THERE ANY STARTING OPTIONS?

At Class AAA, starting starting options are Konnor Pilkington (who has been up and down between Columbus and Cleveland) and Peyton Battenfield (2-2, 2,54).

Sam Hentges was a starter in the minors, but he’s found success in Cleveland’s bullpen. I’d leave him there.

The next wave of starters is at Class AA Akron: Logan T. Allen (3.38 ERA), Tanner Burns (1.69 ERA), Daniel Espino (2.45 ERA), Joey Cantillo (2.57) and Gavin Williams, who was just promoted from Class A Lake County where he had a 1.48 ERA.

The Central Division is weak. Sure, the Guardians can use another hitter. That’s true of almost every team in this age. But if they want to contend, they had better plug a couple of holes in the rotation. Assuming Civale and Plesac are healthy, there is no rush to make a change now.

What to like (and not to like) so far about the 2022 Cleveland Guardians


By Zack Meisel


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CLEVELAND — The Guardians have been as hot and cold as the ever-fluctuating weather in the city they represent. They have been as up and down as an elusive Whack-a-Mole critter.

Through the first six weeks of the season, there has been a lot to like about the Guardians. There have also been trends and storylines that have fans grumbling.

To like: José Ramírez’s aversion to strikeouts
So many of Ramírez’s statistics are noteworthy — such as his .290/.386/.581 slash line, 184 wRC+, league-leading 33 RBIs and fifth-ranked fWAR (2.1) — but his walk and strikeout rates are downright silly. He took a called third strike on a splitter on the inside corner at the knees against Twins reliever Emilio Pagán in the ninth inning Sunday and glared at the umpire as if there were some malfunction in the system — because Ramírez simply doesn’t strike out like that. He sports the league’s best strikeout rate (Steven Kwan is second), an incredible feat on its own, and even more so for a heart-of-the-order hitter who wields power and an elite walk rate. He ranks in the 98th percentile in whiff rate, so he doesn’t even swing and miss, let alone do so for a third strike. Ramírez and Yandy Díaz of the Rays are tied for the league lead in BB/K ratio. Kwan is third. There’s a Pacific Ocean-sized gap between those three and the rest of the qualified hitters.

Not to like: Franmil Reyes’ aversion to not striking out
Reyes has 51 strikeouts in 124 plate appearances, and although it’s simply a facet of his profile, it’s more profound this season, and it hasn’t been accompanied by the usual barrage of home runs. Mark Reynolds (remember him?) holds the MLB record with 223 strikeouts in a season. That year (2009), he carried a strikeout rate of 33.7 percent. The following season, he struck out 211 times in far fewer plate appearances for a strikeout rate of 35.4 percent.

Reyes right now: 41.1 percent.

The Cubs’ Patrick Wisdom has struck out at an even higher clip: 42.7 percent. It’s a big jump between those two and the rest of the league, with Atlanta’s Dansby Swanson checking in third at 35.6 percent.

To like: Josh Naylor’s comeback story
For the first half of last season, Naylor was just sort of … there. Unspectacular, unremarkable. Fine.

Then he suffered a traumatic leg injury and he … wasn’t there. That set up this season as a critical one for him to progress beyond the injury and also prove to the organization that he should be part of the team’s core. It’s difficult to imagine a better start toward achieving those two goals.

Naylor is showcasing a fascinating hitting profile, with power and a lot of contact. As we witnessed last week, he plays with the vigor and passion of someone who just chugged a blend of Red Bull, coffee and jet fuel. That leads to plenty of aggression at the plate and chasing pitches out of the zone. And, yet, because his contact rate is sky high, he rarely strikes out. He’s been enthralling to watch this season, as his free-swinging, batting glove-less approach has produced a .347/.377/.611 slash line.



Not to like: The rotation has reached uncharted territory
Last year’s rotation was a mess, but that was fueled by injuries. This year, it’s just been underwhelming. The metrics for most of the group are alarming. Shane Bieber’s velocity drop has been well-documented, but he just isn’t as sharp and isn’t overmatching hitters with his secondary pitches like he has in recent seasons. Aaron Civale has surrendered a ton of hard contact, resulting in a 9.85 ERA. Cal Quantrill and Zach Plesac have dealt with a ton of traffic.

A fact that wouldn’t have seemed believable two months ago: Civale is the only one of Cleveland’s five starters averaging more than a strikeout per inning.

To like: Triston McKenzie is a rotation mainstay
Manager Terry Francona likes to say “it’s easy to dream” when a young player shows flashes of brilliance, and McKenzie served as a perfect example of that last summer when he started to pitch with conviction. He has resembled a polished veteran this season, with no signs of the confidence or command issues that plagued him for much of 2021. Only once in his six starts has he allowed more than four hits, three runs and two walks.

Not to like: Where does Amed Rosario fit?
Rosario hasn’t yet joined in on the Guardians’ parade of singles and doubles, though his metrics are more promising than his .239/.288/.299 slash line would suggest. He has significantly decreased his strikeout rate and, like many others in Cleveland’s lineup, he boasts an elite contact rate. One issue: His hard-hit rate ranks in the 35th percentile in the league and, per usual, his chase rate ranks near the bottom. To make matters worse: He doesn’t really have a position. The Guardians want Naylor and Owen Miller in the lineup every day, and if they’re occupying first and second base, that leaves Andrés Giménez at shortstop, where he belongs. Hence, Rosario has returned to left field, where he has limited experience.

To like: Giménez has seized his opportunity
Giménez has outperformed his advanced metrics at the plate, but not by a significant degree. So, no, maybe he won’t carry a .909 OPS all season, but a solid offensive contributor who possesses his glove? That’s a valuable player. Giménez has already amassed five Defensive Runs Saved this season — three at second base, two at shortstop — and he ranks in the 95th percentile in Statcast’s Outs Above Average metric. His walk rate is one of the lowest in the league, but he sees 4.18 pitches per plate appearance, which is one of the better marks in baseball.

Giménez's improved metrics
Hard hit rate
30.4 percent
42.0 percent
Expected BA
0.211
0.297
Expected SLG
0.320
0.501
Exit velocity
86.3 mph
90.0 mph
Not to like: They haven’t run amok
The Guardians preached all spring that they would be aggressive on the bases, on the heels of a 2021 season in which they stole a bunch of bases and did so with the best success rate in the league. This year, though, they rank in the middle of the pack in stolen bases, success rate and extra-base-taken rate. Myles Straw has eight of the team’s 18 stolen bases. Last year, Rosario went 13-for-13 in attempts; this year, he’s 1-for-2. Kwan, who had 21 stolen bases in 217 minor-league games, has one stolen base in two attempts. He admitted last week: “I’m not a great base stealer yet. I have a lot to learn from Myles.”

am disappointed in the lack of basestealing but really they don't have too many candidates. Rosario and Ramirez could run a little more, but they are selective in when they take off.

For the baseball purists out there, this sends shivers down their spines.

Banana Ball

https://sports.yahoo.com/banana-ball-sa ... 56099.html

40 in 25: Yohan Ramírez
The Legend of the Lowered Arm Slot

By sanford_and_son@sanford_and_son Apr 5, 2022, 10:00am PDT 2 Comments
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Seattle Mariners Photo Day
my brother in christ, are you familiar with the amish of pennsylvania dutch country? Photo by Sam Wasson/Getty Images
The live right arm of Yohan Ramírez remains a tantalizing and elusive grail among the many volatile “what if?” aspects of the Mariners bullpen in 2022. Let’s be honest, though. With an average BB% of 15.4% from his combined appearances in 2020 and 2021, Ramírez is ideally not Plan A, B, or C when it comes to the bullpen. But, with the loss of Casey Sadler to injury and the (spits through fingers, tosses salt over shoulder) impending avalanche of arm injuries sure to come league-wide in the wake of an abbreviated Spring Training, Ramírez stands to get plenty of opportunities to get his control woes behind him and evolve into the good kind of “effectively wild” relief pitcher the Mariners will need to compete in 2022.

Staff writer and pitching analyst Mikey Ajeto wrote about the improvements Ramírez made in 2021. By lowering his arm slot, similar to what Paul Sewald did, Ramírez added a level of deception to his delivery and to the movement on this pitches that makes life extra difficult for batters.


.gif created by Mikey Ajeto
As Mikey notes, this arm slot change has also helped Ramírez hit the zone more regularly, which can be bad for his home run numbers if he’s too in the zone or misses his spot. But, generally speaking, being able to throw strikes when you need to is better than walking the whole world.

In five appearances in 2022 Spring Training, Ramírez has managed to keep the walk rate fairly respectable in that small sample size (5 IP) with a BB/9 of 5.4, along with 7 strikeouts. We take all ST stats with a massive grain of salt, but it’s reassuring to see things are more or less in line with where he left off.

Seattle Mariners v Los Angeles Angels
Photo by John McCoy/Getty Images
When a pitcher gets the “effectively wild” reputation, it tends to stick for their whole career. Whenever I hear that tag, I think of two things: Fernando Rodney and the “Drunken Master” martial arts movies starring Jackie Chan. Rodney needs no introduction here at LL, but we are all aware of how pitch control issues can turn a sure victory into a demoralizing loss in a hurry. We also know about the joy of seeing a pitcher hone in control of such devastating pitches and seeing them embarrass batters with half-swings and knee-bucklers.


For those unfamiliar with the concept of Drunken Boxing, it’s a fascinating and mythologized style of Chinese martial arts in which the combatant imitates the off-kilter behavior of a drunk person. As a young preteen who was obsessed with video games like Street Fighter II and later the Tekken series, it quickly became a big deal for me whenever a new Jackie Chan movie hit the theaters in the US, starting with “Rumble in the Bronx” in 1995. In 2000, perhaps my favorite Jackie Chan movie showed up in US theatres six years after it came in Hong Kong, re-titled as “Legend of Drunken Master.” Now, teenage Eric thought this was the first time anyone had ever portrayed this style of Drunken Boxing on film, but of course it turned out that Chan had already made several movies about the style dating back to the 70’s and this was just the re-packaged, cranked-up-to-11 for American consumption version and man, I was SOLD.


Anyways, we’re in the weeds now, but hey that’s what you’re here for, right? In the movie, (and most Drunken Boxing-related movies) Chan realizes how self-destructive the style can be if/when he over-indulges and he gets into all kinds of trouble with family and friends (extremely relatable, right?) before figuring out how to “dial it in” and use the style correctly to protect himself and others. Sounds like an “effectively wild” reliever, right? Reader, I know you already got there a couple paragraphs ago, but I just like talking about Jackie Chan whenever possible, so here we are. Just watch the final fight scene before you move on, trust me. It’s nine minutes of PURE CINEMA (pinched fingers emoji).


Can Yohan Ramírez be the “Drunken Master” of the Mariners bullpen, but in a good way? Can he keep batters completely off-balance and in fear of their lives due the unpredictable path of scorching sliders and fastballs? Doing so will require Ramírez proving he can indeed hit the zone when he needs to, otherwise the walk rate will continue to climb and sad times will ensue. Here’s hoping Ramírez can regularly find that sweet spot between blackout drunk and effortlessly, beautifully buzzed whilst striking out the side during each appearance in 2022.

Gammons: Cleveland Guardians traded their way to success for 20 years, and may have done it again

CLEVELAND, OHIO - MAY 17: Jose Ramirez #11 celebrates with Owen Miller #6 of the Cleveland Guardians after both scored during the ninth inning on a home run by Miller against the Cincinnati Reds at Progressive Field on May 17, 2022 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images)
By Peter Gammons
May 20, 2022
60

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It was Oct. 8, 2007, in THE Yankee Stadium — not the hollow 2009 remake — and 45 minutes earlier the then-Cleveland Indians had defeated the Yankees in the American League Division Series. The team now known as the Guardians had to that moment faced the Yankees twice in the postseason, swatting them aside in 1997 and losing to them in 1998, falling after going into a Sunday night Game 4 up 2-1 at Jacobs Field only to be carved up by Orlando Hernandez as that great Yankee team marched on to the World Series.

This Yankee Stadium moment was different, so different from those World Series losses in ’54 or ’95 or ’97, and different from the ALCS loss in ’98. When I finished interviewing players and went back out through the tunnel to the dugout to watch the after-effects of the Yankees being denied an ALCS rematch of 2004 with the Red Sox, Cleveland owner Paul Dolan and son Peter were scooping some of the stadium dirt in front of the dugout into Ziploc bags. He gave a sheepish look at me, to in which I said, “that’s great, the right thing to do. You’re honoring the Yankee tradition, and if you don’t enjoy every sandwich along the way, you’ll never fully appreciate tonight.”

Dolan that night was a very happy man. In 2000, he had bought a team that had drawn three million fans or more for six consecutive seasons, made the postseason five times in six years and played in two World Series in three years. They had stars like Albert Belle, Jim Thome, Manny Ramirez and Kenny Lofton, and after the 1998 season signed Hall of Famer Roberto Alomar as a free agent. I remember at a party the Saturday before the 1999 All-Star Game watching Cleveland general manager John Hart and Toronto’s Pat Gillick sitting on deck chairs in the backyard haggling over the player cost of Cleveland acquiring Scott Erickson for the second half of the season. Not dollars. Those two clubs were big market powers.

Little did we imagine that between them only the 2016 Indians — memorably on the arm of Andrew Miller, whom they acquired from the Yankees — would make it back to the World Series.

The closest Cleveland came after 1998 was that series a decade later, when after eliminating the Yankees they were taking the field in Fenway Park in the ALCS; they had been up 3-1 in games, a win away from playing the Colorado Rockies in the World Series, but Josh Beckett won Game 5 to take the series to Fenway, and make it a two-game series between the two winningest (96-66) teams in the American League.

J.D. Drew blasted a first-inning grand slam off Roberto Hernandez and the Red Sox won 12-2, then the next night Kevin Youkilis hit a three-run homer in the first inning, Daisuke Matsuzaka pitched superbly and the Red Sox were on to the Series. Cleveland was outscored 30-1 in the last three games and lost less than a mile from the park, Braves Field, where the Indians mobbed one another on the field after Bob Lemon pitched the clincher of the 1948 World Series over the Boston Braves. Yeah, I just mentioned 1948.

When Dolan bought the team in 2000, Cleveland was coming off its slam/bam decade. John Hart ran the baseball operation under owner Dick Jacobs, with the requirement that he had to clear a small annual profit. Downtown Cleveland was ripe for the bashers that enabled them to build Jacobs Field, less than a mile from the old Mistake on The Lake. They sold out 455 straight home games. The ribs at the concession stands were to die for. They were players, such as when they signed Alomar as a free agent in December 1998. Hart announced 2001 would be his final season and that Mark Shapiro would take over on Nov. 1, 2001, and since the club won 97 games in 1999, 90 in 2000 and 91 in 2001 the passage of Hart to his protégé Shapiro seemed to indicate that there was no real regime change, no reason to believe golden era would end anytime soon.

Yet 2001 was the last season of the run of three million fans packing The Jake. Headwinds were coming, in the prominence of the Indians in the local sports scene, and in the economic situation of the city itself.

As Shapiro and Chris Antonetti ascended to leadership roles, Shapiro says, “Chris saw what was in front of us. He recognized certain signs. The Browns came back. Lebron James would come downtown. Chris and I truly love the city; we know how many times Chris has had the opportunity to go elsewhere for more money and a larger payroll. But Paul always let us know what reality lay in front of us, he trusted us to do the best we could, he’s tried to do what he could. I think we were dealing with a new reality.”

Yet, from the day the Terry Francona Era began in 2013 until you read this, the Guardians have won more games than any American League team but the New York Yankees. They haven’t done it with free agents; after the extra-inning defeat in Game 7 of the 2016 World Series, Dolan stretched the budget to sign Edwin Encarnación for three years at a $20 million AAV, and the only other free agent signings of at least $10 million AAV were Nick Swisher, Michael Bourn, Kerry Wood and Juan Gonzalez. After the strike of 1994-95 — which for many Guardians fans killed a chance at forgetting 1948 since they were a game out and getting better when the ’94 season was ended on Aug. 12 — Belle became a free agent in 1996 and Jerry Reinsdorf brought him to Chicago with a five year, $55 million deal that may have been founded in rage about the bargaining settlement. They couldn’t compete for Manny Ramirez or Thome on the market.

As Shapiro and Antonetti assumed complete control in 2002, the team was in the midst of its first losing season since 1993. The local economy was changing as well, with Fortune 500 companies leaving the downtown and a shift underway that would play its part in gradually changing the way the organization did business. In 1999, the Indians were fourth in payroll, $15 million less than the industry-leading Yankees; in 2007, the Cleveland payroll was less than a third of that of the Yankees, and the Indians were still only 23rd among the 30 teams.


Chris Antonetti and Mark Shapiro in 2015. (David Richard / USA Today)
By June 2002, Shapiro and Antonetti understood baseball’s new world. Major League Baseball had taken over the Montreal Expos before the season, Omar Minaya came in as general manager, and by Memorial Day they were barely over .500 despite an 11-17 May, and had a chance to make a wild-card spot and reward MLB. Shapiro and Minaya, respected friends, discussed Bartolo Colon for weeks. At the time, Colon was a premier starting pitcher who might be able to help the Expos make the playoffs. He was closing in on free agency. On May 17, Shapiro sent Colon and minor league pitcher Tim Drew to Montreal for Brandon Phillips, Cliff Lee, Grady Sizemore and journeyman first baseman Lee Stevens, whom they took to balance the money.

“When the story hit the wires and most national news outlets, it was reported that the Indians traded Colon for Lee Stevens and three minor leaguers,” recalls Shapiro. “No one had heard of the other players because they were minor leaguers. It was the beginning of a new time in the game, especially the value of young players.”

This was an important beginning to one of the elements that have helped maintain Cleveland’s competitiveness, particularly since Francona, who is headed to the Hall of Fame, took over. For a moment, let me re-set my GPS from June 17, 2002, to May 9, 2022. The May 9 destination is on the South Side of Chicago at Guaranteed Rate Field. Josh Naylor had an RBI double in the eighth inning, a game-tying grand slam in the ninth, a three-run homer in the 11th. Andrés Giménez had a critical double and a homer. Emmanuel Clase got the win in relief, hitting 101.8 mph on the radar gun.

Guardians May 9 lineup origins
Myles Straw
CF
Trade, HOU
Steven Kwan
RF
Draft, 2018
José Ramirez
3B
Int'l, 2009
Owen Miller
2B
Trade, SD
Josh Naylor
1B
Trade, SD
Franmil Reyes
DH
Trade, SD
Andrés Giménez
SS
Trade, NYM
Amed Rosario
LF
Trade, NYM
Austin Hedges
C
Trade, SD
The road to that moment all began with a pair of trades, one good, one not so good, that defined how the organization evaluated talent and viewed trades from that point on.

In December 2001, they traded Alomar to the Mets, essentially for highly touted, toolsy center fielder Alex Escobar and outfielder Matt Lawton. “Chris broke the Mets deal down and knew it wasn’t a very good one,” says Shapiro. “We probably could have had David Wright, but we took the immediacy of the deal. We learned from it, and I think it’s fair to say I learned a lot from Chris.”

The other trade came the next year, hammered out between Shapiro and Minaya, over Colon and what the return for him would be. Sizemore was in the Carolina League in the Expos system, Lee in the Eastern League, Phillips in the International League, and considered by many evaluators to be the best player in the deal. “We have never evaluated in any one way, analytics, pro scouting … we’ve always tried to get every bit of information we can,” says Antonetti. “We want to try to know everything we possibly can.”

In this case, they had a good line on Lee, who was 9-2. But Shapiro, Antonetti and 2003 addition Mike Chernoff — who started as an intern and rose to general manager and ranks up there with anyone — have strong beliefs in club culture. In the Colon deal, they had an advantage in Tony LaCava as a special assistant, an outstanding evaluator who later turned down at least two GM jobs, who had worked in the Expos organization. He was very high on Lee. But he was highest on Sizemore, who was drafted and signed by Montreal in 2000. He was the guy they really wanted, and while he had some notable seasons (like leading the American League in WAR in 2006) had his career diminished and eventually ended by injuries. “Grady was nothing short of a superstar,” says Pirates manager Derek Shelton, who in Cleveland was Sizemore’s hitting coach. Lee won a Cy Young Award in Cleveland with a 22-3 record, had three other top four Cy Young Award finishes, and had postseason shutouts of the Dodgers for the Phillies and the Yankees for the Rangers. Phillips didn’t match his hype, but he made three All-Star Games for the Cincinnati Reds, played 16 seasons, and compiled 28.4 bWAR.


Brandon Phillips made three All-Star teams and won four Gold Gloves, though all came after he was traded to Cincinnati. (Jim McIsaac / Getty Images)
Subsequent trades would be viewed through that lens, and there would be many, often necessitated by payroll limitations. In July 2008, C.C. Sabathia was months from free agency, was sent to Milwaukee, and fetched Michael Brantley. Lee was shipped out in 2009 and got them Carlos Carrasco, who would win 88 games for them. Víctor Martínez got them Justin Masterson, who was an All-Star for Francona. Shin-Soo Choo later brought them Franmil Reyes, who in 2021 hit 30 homers for a power-starved team. They traded Jake Westbrook for a minor leaguer named Corey Kluber, who won a Cy Young Award and, after injuries, got them Clase.

In 2020, when Mike Clevinger was reaching an All-Star level at the age of 29, Antonetti and Chernoff traded him to the Padres — who were mounting a challenge to the Dodgers — for Austin Hedges, Owen Miller, Cal Quantrill, Naylor and Gabriel Arias. Miller and Naylor are 25, Quantrill 27, and Hedges 29, with years of productive receiving in front of him. Giménez is 23. In case you’re wondering, they got Clevinger from the Angels for Vinnie Pestino.

Go back in time. Remember Casey Blake for Carlos Santana. Travis Hafner for Einar Díaz and Ryan Drese. Esmil Rogers for Yan Gomes. Asdrúbal Cabrera for Eduardo Perez and Choo for Ben Broussard from Seattle, in the same month.

Both Shapiro and Antonetti credit the organization’s remarkable capacity to develop bright young executives to Hart and Dan O’Dowd and what they began in the early 1990s. One looks at these trades, and appreciates that knowing people, sourcing, vision and understanding of a trade partner’s situational needs are part of the search-and-acquire process. It’s knowing the difference between touted prospects and actual talent, the difference between the Alomar and the Colon trades. Mike Hazen, Carter Hawkins, Ben Cherington, Chernoff, David Stearns, Derek Falvey and Ross Atkins all came up in the Hart/Shapiro/Antonetti (and Chernoff) system that has been a fixture since before they traded Felix Fermin for Omar Vizquel.

This season? Who knows? The White Sox and Twins could be 90-win teams, the Tigers are far better than their start, as are the Royals. Shapiro left to run the Toronto Blue Jays in 2015, but Antonetti and Chernoff have continued his excellence in developing pitchers, encouraging their individualism and creativity from the day they sign. Shane Bieber won the Cy Young Award in 2020. Trading for pitching the last few years hasn’t been that much of a need; the only member of their current rotation that came in trade is Quantrill, and look into their current system and they have two pitchers currently at Double-A Akron who could help in Cleveland before the season is over — Daniel Espino and the Logan Allen they drafted, not the Logan Allen they traded.

I get 1948. I get 2007 and as great as 2016 turned out to be, it hurt. But, remember, the Guardians have never tanked. They’ve never had the first pick in the draft. They had the second pick (Paul Shuey) in 1992, 1988 (Mark Lewis), 1986 (Greg Swindell), 1972 (Rick Manning) and 1970 (Steve Dunning). When Shuey was picked, George Herbert Walker Bush was president and Shapiro was in the first full year in the baseball business under Hart and O’Dowd. When they made their push, they traded two high draft pick guys for Andrew Miller, who some would tell you was the best reliever in the sport at the time, as well as one of the finest human beings.

I empathize. When I was very young, my favorite pitcher in the world was Herb Score. Even though I’m right-handed, I tucked my glove underneath my shoulder when I threw against walls, somehow emulating him, and I had my transistor radio under the blankets listening to that May 7, 1957, game when he was hit by the line drive. When I asked Ted Williams who was the best left-hander he ever faced, he replied, “Herb Score,” and somehow it almost felt worse thinking about it.

It’s not their fault the Fortune 500 Companies left, and the Browns and Lebron James came, and even when Grady Sizemore arrived, he had to leave too soon. Someone downtown watched that game in Chicago this May and told a friend, “it ain’t 74 years, yet. We got Bieber in a Game 7.”

Maybe. The yield for Clevinger is very impressive. For Lindor could be, too, if perhaps Giminez turns out to be a less charismatic almost duplicate of Frankie. It's unlikely but possible that Isaiah Greene, Lynchburg OF, could be a useful return to that deal, too.

Good past weeks by Valera Naylor and Tolentino in the minors are positive, too

I remember it all’: Jason Kipnis, while open to an opportunity, is prepared for end of career



Aug 31, 2019; St. Petersburg, FL, USA;Cleveland Indians second baseman Jason Kipnis (22) at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
By Ken Rosenthal

I’ll admit, most of the postgame interviews I conduct for Fox Sports, even in the postseason, are not terribly meaningful or revealing. Players, just coming off the field, do not always have time to collect their thoughts. And the topic of the conversation rarely strays from specific elements of the game.

My interview with Cleveland second baseman Jason Kipnis after Game 4 of the 2016 World Series was different.

Kipnis, playing in his native Chicago, that night became the first visiting player since Babe Ruth to hit a three-run homer during the World Series at Wrigley Field. More important, Cleveland moved to within one victory of its first Series title since 1948, defeating the Cubs, 7-2, to take a three-games-to-one lead.

First, I asked Kipnis what it meant as a hometown kid to be linked like that with Ruth, and he laughed, saying, “Everything.” Then, after he talked about the homer, I popped the bigger question: “You grew up coming to games here. What would it be like to win the World Series at Wrigley Field?”

“I don’t know. I really don’t know,” Kipnis said.

He paused.

“Can you imagine it?” I asked.

“I’m starting to. I’m starting to,” he said. “I’ve got a lot of friends and family here. To be able to do it in Chicago …”

He paused again, his eyes welling with emotion.

“It would mean a lot.”

Of course, Cleveland did not win the Series in Chicago. Cleveland did not win the Series at all. The Cubs reeled off three straight victories to win their first title since 1908, and Kipnis, his teammates and an entire city were left with a what-might-have-been emptiness that has yet to go away.

Kipnis, at least, was in position to get another crack at a championship last season. All 57 players who were on the Braves’ active roster for at least one day received a World Series ring. The list included bit contributors such as infielder Sean Kazmar Jr., and pitchers Jay Flaa and Ty Tice, and even Jasseel De La Cruz, who was active for one day but did not pitch. Such players received lower tiers of ring, but Kipnis did not qualify for even that much. He spent all season with the Braves’ Triple-A Gwinnett affiliate, waiting for a callup that never came.

And now, at age 35, his career might be over.



During the lockout, Kipnis worked out at Bradley Fieldhouse, a facility on Chicago’s North Side about two miles west of Wrigley Field. The fieldhouse, a place where local youth play basketball and train for baseball, is not the type of building where major leaguers condition themselves to play 162 games. But the regular hitting group at Bradley included Kipnis, the Padres’ Jake Cronenworth, White Sox’s Yasmani Grandal, Angels’ Max Stassi, and Cubs’ Nico Hoerner and Jason Heyward. Elite Baseball Training, run by Cubs director of hitting Justin Stone, is set up within the fieldhouse.

Kipnis, a two-time All-Star, made a particularly strong impression on Cronenworth, 28, and Hoerner, 25, both of whom are also middle infielders.

“We’ve been working out together since 2018,” Cronenworth said. “To have a veteran guy like that, who has had a ton of success in his career, it has meant a lot. We talk about hitting all the time. Just little things, stuff he has learned over his career, in the field, at the plate. You couldn’t ask for a better guy to be around.”

Added Hoerner, a teammate of Kipnis’ with the Cubs during the pandemic-shortened 2020 season: “Kip was someone who was always able to enjoy the games and the relationships within baseball, no matter what situation he was in.

“Obviously, I saw him away from his time in Cleveland. But even being in a new clubhouse during the middle of a pandemic season – a really strange set-up – he was someone who was going to make the most of the situations he’s in. I saw him tip his cap to an empty Cleveland stadium in his return there. That’s a good example of him just kind of making fun of a ridiculous situation, something that should have been awesome.”

Kipnis had a .908 OPS over 228 injury-interrupted plate appearances at Triple A last season, but said it was disheartening that he “really couldn’t get an invite” this spring, not even on the kind of minor-league deal he signed with the Braves a year ago. The lockout shortened spring training, and he noticed teams brought in fewer veterans than usual, knowing their windows to evaluate players would be small.

Kipnis kept hitting five days a week until late April. He continues to work out with Shane Wallen, the Cubs’ former strength and conditioning coach who is still in Chicago. But he understands that any team that suffers an injury likely would turn to its bench or farm system for replacements before a player who was not even in spring training. So, while he remains open to an immediate opportunity, he believes if his career is going to resume, it probably will not happen until next spring.

“My five days of hitting have turned into two,” Kipnis said. “I’ll be honest, my baseball swing is starting to turn more into a golf swing. If you ask me if I want to go to the cage or if I want to go play 18, my answer is go play 18. I just don’t see the route to get back to a team this year.”


(Nathan Ray Seebeck / USA Today Sports)
If Kipnis had just stayed healthy, he might have found his way onto the Braves’ roster last season. But his first injury occurred in early April, during extended spring training. While taking grounders and turning a double play, Kipnis felt a sharp pain in his midsection. He thought someone had overthrown a ball and hit him in the ribs. Instead, he had torn his oblique.

The baseball world did not stop. The Braves began cycling through bench types, as teams normally do. Most were more versatile than Kipnis, who was essentially a second baseman. And, as the season played out, the Braves needed outfielders more than infielders. First baseman Freddie Freeman, second baseman Ozzie Albies, shortstop Dansby Swanson and third baseman Austin Riley each started 153 or more games.

Among the reserves, Pablo Sandoval made the team’s Opening Day roster and hit four pinch-hit home runs by May 8. Abraham Almonte, a backup with Cleveland while Kipnis was a starter from 2015 to 2017, had a 1.176 OPS when he was promoted from Triple A on May 31. Orlando Arcia, acquired from the Brewers in April, had a .932 OPS when he was promoted on July 4.

Johan Camargo endured seven demotions and produced a higher OPS at Triple A than Kipnis. So did Travis Demeritte, who played outfield, where the opportunity was greater, but also never made it to the majors. Like Kipnis, the Braves would have needed to add him to their 40-man roster.

Kipnis finally made his season debut on May 25, and his .828 OPS on July 18 might have warranted him consideration for a callup if he had not suffered another injury, an injured calf that sidelined him until Aug. 11. The trade deadline fell right in the middle of his stint on the injured list. The Braves, needing to replace Ronald Acuña Jr. (knee) and Marcell Ozuna (fractured fingers, then administrative leave while under investigation for violating baseball’s joint domestic violence policy), traded for outfielders Joc Pederson, Adam Duvall, Jorge Soler and Eddie Rosario.

For Kipnis, the timing for a promotion never was right.

“That being said, at the end of the year, I was hitting again,” said Kipnis, who batted .407 with five homers and four doubles in his final 19 games. “I knew with my history and everything, I figured I was going to get a shot. Atlanta decided to keep guys who weren’t producing.

“I’m not badmouthing anybody, but they weren’t producing, weren’t doing anything. I thought I could have helped the team more than they were. But it’s hard to argue, when a team goes on to win the championship, that they did anything wrong.”

Kipnis possibly was referring to Arcia, the lone position player the Braves promoted when rosters expanded to 28 on Sept. 1. Arcia, who played mostly left field, had only a .625 OPS with the Braves, a figure he has improved to .929 this season. Guillermo Heredia had only a .665 OPS, but offered valuable late-inning defense in center field.

As Kipnis said, it was difficult to dispute the Braves’ choices. But he admits to being conflicted during the team’s march to the Series title.

“A bunch of guys who were on the team had been at Triple A. I became friends with these guys,” Kipnis said. “It was tough. I was rooting for my friends. But am I really rooting against them to not win because of them not calling me up?”




Kipnis in Game 6 of the 2016 World Series. (David Richard / USA Today Sports)
So, what would it have been like for Kipnis to win the World Series at Wrigley Field? He remembers my question. He remembers our interview after Game 4.

“Trust me,” he said. “I remember it all.”

Kipnis was in the oddest of positions. He had rooted his entire life for the Cubs to break the Curse of the Billy Goat. Yet his mission during the 2016 World Series was to keep the curse alive.

“You’ve got all these people, familiar faces and teachers in the crowd, and you’re being called a traitor in the on-deck circle,” he recalled. “You’re just like, ‘All right.’ You kind of adopt that villain role.”

Kipnis, though, knew the final victory would be the most difficult to secure. The Cubs had Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta and Kyle Hendricks lined up for Games 5, 6 and 7. They won all three, by scores of 3-2, 9-3 and, following a momentum-shifting, 17-minute rain delay in Game 7, 8-7 in 10 innings.

Yes, it still hurts. It always will.

“I’ll put it this way: Ninety-nine percent of me was crushed losing that World Series. The 1 percent of me was happy, that if I were to lose it, it would be to the Cubs. It’s my hometown. So when I went to play for the Cubs in 2020, 99 percent of me was excited and so happy I got to play for the Cubs. And 1 percent of me was like, ‘Great, I have to look at all these banners and hear about ‘16 all the time.’”

Which isn’t to say Kipnis dwells on the memories, not when he already is occupied with the post-playing phase of his career.

About four months before the start of the pandemic, he partnered with Cleveland-based chef Jonathan Sawyer to open SeeSaw, a restaurant in Columbus, Ohio. More recently, he opened a country bar in Cleveland with country music star Chase Rice. Plans are in the works for a second SeeSaw in Miami, and Kipnis said he also has invested in a super fruit CBD drink that has received National Science Foundation (NSF) certification.

He lives in downtown Chicago, near one of his three siblings. His parents live in a northern suburb. If his playing days are over, he will finish with 1,147 hits, 126 home runs, 136 stolen bases, a .260 batting average and .750 OPS. But he has yet to reflect much upon his professional career, which began when Cleveland selected him out of Arizona State in the fourth round of the 2008 draft.

“I’ve never really come up for air to kind of examine it or give myself any credit,” Kipnis said. “Some guys have to believe that they’re great. I always thought I sucked. That kept me pushing. I always had to micro-manage everything just to get to where I was.

“I think when enough time passes I’ll be very proud. I think I squeezed just about as much as I could out of myself in my career. You can call it overachieving, whatever it may have been. But at the same time, I still have stuff left in the tank and I’m just not being given that opportunity to play, it saddens me. I love the game so much. I want to be out there. I know I can still be out there.”

He worked out all offseason with that goal, not wanting to experience regrets for leaving the game too soon. The end is never easy for professional athletes, particularly those who are accomplished and never fulfill their dream of winning a championship. But Kipnis sounds as if he will be content if no team asks him to play again.

“This is going to be my first chance in a while to have a Chicago summer,” Kipnis said. “The warmer the weather keeps getting, the less likely I will want that phone call.”

The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney contributed to this story

baseball trade values is kind of interesting site. It values players based on performance including advanced metrics and contracts

you can try trades. The guy who developed the site will respond to comments

Here is an interesting discussion on the value of Quantrill https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-81489/

11 Comments
Big Bat
BigBat on May 21, 2022 at 4:26 pm
How are these values even possible? Probably time for an adjustment?

1Log in to Reply
John Bitzer
johnbitzer on May 21, 2022 at 6:19 pm
What on earth are you talking about? Check out Quantrill’s expected stats on Savant. He’s regressing. Adell has failed three times so far at the MLB level, and his options clock is burning.

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Ty Archy
SportsCoach on May 24, 2022 at 12:31 pm
Adell’s value has gone up on here lately, while Quantrill’s has gone to far down. Guardians went ultra conservative with their SPs and he wasn’t given free reign until his last start. Quantrill will have a solid second half like last season….

I think the Guardians would like Adell, but they are willing to trade a legit MLB SP for him…

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John Bitzer
johnbitzer on May 24, 2022 at 1:52 pm
I can see why you have optimism as a Cleveland fan. But the objective sources we use do not paint such a rosy picture for Quantrill. His Savant page is very blue (which means his advanced and expected stats are negative), his K/9 is way, way down, and all the projection systems forecast him for less than 1 WAR going forward (Steamer projects 0.3). If any of that changes, his value profile will as well. But so far the picture is not good.

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John Bitzer
johnbitzer on May 24, 2022 at 2:03 pm
Diving a little deeper, his fastball velocity is down two full ticks, from 94 to 92. And it’s getting hit hard. He’s mostly throwing two pitches — a sinker and cutter, and the xwOBA on the sinker is .369, and the xwOBA on the cutter is .342 (both well below league average, which for a starter is about .320). His most effective pitch is his changeup, but he’s only thrown it 58 times this year (less than 10% of the time), which suggests he’s lost confidence in it. Without that, hitters are just sitting on his weaker velocity and pounding it. Something’s got to change there.

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Ty Archy
SportsCoach on May 24, 2022 at 2:21 pm
I get your numbers, but one thing from watching the Guardians this season, everyone single one of their pitchers velo was down to start the season. They were ramping them up during the season like they normally would do during spring training. You will have to literally throw out the first month of the season since no one was allowed to essentially go all out from the starting staff during that month. The national media doesn’t know this to be honest. If it comes late Juneish and the velo is still down that is when there could be an issue.

Caleb Thomas
cthomas6204 on May 21, 2022 at 5:24 pm
This isn’t even the worst one, I think it plummets the value for guys like Adell once they debut and don’t immediately produce. Apparently Florial for the Yankees is only valued at 1.6 which seems very low for a promising prospect

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John Bitzer
johnbitzer on May 21, 2022 at 6:16 pm
This is indeed part of the model, and it’s been validated many times over. Florial is on his last option year, which matters quite a bit. He’ll be a DFA if he doesn’t stick by the end of the year or early next year, as he’ll be out of options at that point with no MLB success to show for it.

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Caleb Thomas
cthomas6204 on May 21, 2022 at 6:21 pm
That makes sense. I can certainly see how that would make a player less valuable to the team that has them, and obviously you can’t change that value for different scenarios. However, I think rebuilding teams would likely have more value and use for those players, because they’d be more likely to be in a spot to let them work out issues.

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John Bitzer
johnbitzer on May 21, 2022 at 6:25 pm
That’s true, which is why the Orioles end up with guys like Jorge Mateo when they run out of options. But they don’t trade any major assets for them.

1Log in to Reply
Caleb Thomas
cthomas6204 on May 21, 2022 at 6:27 pm
That’s tru

Here are the values he has for Guardians https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/teams/532/

Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High Fangraphs.com URL
Ramirez 29 Majors 3B 2B Very low 6.8 276.3 129.0 147.3 132.6 162.0 191.5
Bieber 27 Majors SP Very low 2.8 108.2 29.0 79.2 63.4 79.2 95.1
Espino Minors RHP 48.3 38.6 48.3 58.0
McKenzie 25 Majors SP Medium 4.8 46.8 16.7 30.1 24.1 30.1 36.1
Straw 27 Majors OF SS Very low 6.8 50.7 22.8 27.9 22.3 27.9 33.5
Rocchio Minors SS 25.3 20.2 25.3 30.4
Kwan 24 Majors OF Low 5.8 68.1 43.2 24.9 19.9 24.9 29.9
Valera Minors OF 24.2 19.4 24.2 29.0
Clase 24 Majors RHRP Low 6.8 40.8 17.5 23.3 18.6 23.3 28.0
Freeman Minors 2B 23.1 18.5 23.1 27.7
Arias Minors SS 21.8 17.4 21.8 26.2
Gimenez 24 Majors SS Medium 4.8 35.5 15.5 20.0 16.0 20.0 24.0
Civale 27 Majors SP Low 3.8 32.9 13.7 19.2 15.3 19.2 23.1
Karinchak 26 Majors RHRP Low 4.8 27.5 9.8 17.7 13.1 17.5 21.9
Williams Minors RHP 14.1 11.3 14.1 16.9
Naylor 25 Majors OF 1B Low 3.8 29.4 16.7 12.7 10.2 12.7 15.2
Plesac 27 Majors SP Medium 3.8 21.9 10.0 11.9 9.5 11.9 14.3
Jones Minors 3B 11.0 8.8 11.0 13.2
Lavastida 23 Majors C Low 5.8 16.9 6.8 10.1 8.1 10.1 12.1
Quantrill 27 Majors SP Medium 3.8 21.8 12.5 9.3 8.4 9.3 10.2
Miller 25 Majors 3B Medium 5.8 15.2 6.0 9.2 7.4 9.2 11.0
Rosario 26 Majors SS OF Medium 1.8 20.5 11.6 8.9 7.1 8.9 10.7
Sandlin 25 Majors RHRP Low 5.8 14.9 7.3 7.6 6.1 7.6 9.1
Naylor Minors C 6.8 5.4 6.8 8.2
Tena Minors SS 6.5 5.2 6.5 7.8
Martinez Minors SS 6.3 5.0 6.3 7.6
Palacios 25 Majors OF Medium 5.8 15.1 9.1 6.0 4.8 6.0 7.2
Allen Minors LHP 5.4 4.3 5.4 6.5
Halpin Minors OF 4.3 3.4 4.3 5.2
Gose 31 Majors LHRP Low 3.8 8.7 4.5 4.2 3.4 4.2 5.0
Hankins Minors RHP 3.9 3.1 3.9 4.7
Burns Minors RHP 3.4 2.7 3.4 4.1
Greene Minors OF 3.4 2.7 3.4 4.1
Curry Minors RHP 3.2 2.6 3.2 3.8
Battenfield Minors RHP 3.1 2.5 3.1 3.7
Mikolajchak Minors RHP 3.0 2.4 3.0 3.6
Noel Minors 1B 3.0 2.4 3.0 3.6
Morris Minors RHP 2.8 2.2 2.8 3.4
Frias Minors SS 2.7 2.2 2.7 3.2
Tolentino Minors SS 2.6 2.1 2.6 3.1
Chourio Minors OF 2.4 1.9 2.4 2.9
Genao Minors SS 2.4 1.9 2.4 2.9
Lopez Minors C 2.4 1.9 2.4 2.9
Nikhazy Minors LHP 2.4 1.9 2.4 2.9
Denholm Minors RHP 2.2 1.8 2.2 2.6
Mace Minors RHP 2.2 1.8 2.2 2.6
Stephan 26 Majors RHRP Medium 4.8 5.5 3.4 2.1 1.7 2.1 2.5
Torres Minors RHP 2.0 1.6 2.0 2.4
Tucker Minors SS 2.0 1.6 2.0 2.4
Wolf Minors RHP 2.0 1.7 2.0 2.3
Bibee Minors RHP 1.9 1.5 1.9 2.3
Morgan 26 Majors SP RHRP Medium 5.8 4.6 2.8 1.8 1.4 1.8 2.2
Rodriguez Minors SS 3B 1.8 1.4 1.8 2.2
Sharpe Minors RHP 1.7 1.3 1.7 2.1
Reyes 26 Majors OF DH Low 2.8 5.3 3.8 1.5 1.2 1.5 1.8
Gaddis Minors RHP 1.4 1.1 1.4 1.7
Myers Minors RHP 1.4 1.1 1.4 1.7
Vargas Minors RHP 1.4 1.1 1.4 1.7
Brennan Minors OF 1.3 1.0 1.3 1.6
Fox Minors SS 1.3 1.0 1.3 1.6
Pastrano Minors SS 1.3 1.0 1.3 1.6
Sanquintin Minors 3B 1.3 1.0 1.3 1.6
Artiles Minors RHP 1.2 0.9 1.2 1.5
Bracho Minors 2B 1.2 1.0 1.2 1.4
Cantillo Minors LHP 1.2 0.8 1.2 1.6
Mercado 27 Majors OF Medium 3.8 2.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 1.2 1.5
Misiaszek Minors LHP 1.2 0.9 1.2 1.5
Pilkington Minors LHP 1.2 0.9 1.2 1.5
Benton Minors RHP 1.1 0.8 1.1 1.4
Enright Minors RHP 1.1 0.8 1.1 1.4
Maile 31 Majors C Medium 0.8 1.8 0.7 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.3
Durango Minors OF 1.0 0.8 1.0 1.2
Clement 26 Majors SS 2B Medium 5.8 2.9 2.0 0.9 0.7 0.9 1.1
Planez Minors OF 0.9 0.7 0.9 1.1
Valdes Minors SS 0.9 0.6 0.9 1.2
Gonzalez Minors OF 0.8 0.5 0.8 1.1
Benson Minors OF 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.9
Fermin Minors 2B 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.9
Lopez Minors C 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.8
Scott Minors LHP 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.9
Gonzalez Minors SS 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.7
Hentges 25 Minors LHRP SP Medium 5.8 1.2 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.9
Fry Minors C 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.6
Delgado Minors 2B 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4
Feliz Minors LHP 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4
Mota Minors RHP 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4
Nova Minors 3B OF 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4
Cairo Minors 2B 0.2 0 0.2 0.4
Casetta-Stubbs Minors RHP 0.2 0 0.2 0.4
Castro 27 Majors RHRP Medium 4.8 -0.6 0.6 -1.2 0 0.2 0.4
Garza 28 Majors RHRP High 5.8 0.8 0.6 0.2 0 0.2 0.4
Lopez Minors 3B 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3
Ramirez 27 Majors RHRP Medium 4.8 0.5 0.6 -0.1 0 0.2 0.4
Rodriguez Minors OF 0.2 0 0.2 0.4
Tully Minors LHP 0.2 0 0.2 0.4
Broom Minors RHP 0.1 0 0.1 0.2
Burgos Minors LHP 0.1 0 0.1 0.2
Call Minors OF 0.1 0 0.1 0.2
Holmes Minors OF 0.1 0 0.1 0.2
McCarty Minors LHP 0.1 0 0.1 0.2
Bradley 26 Majors 1B Medium 5.8 -0.5 0.6 -1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Chang 26 Majors SS 3B Medium 3.8 0.2 0.6 -0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0
De Los Santos 24 Majors RHRP High 4.8 -1.2 0.6 -1.8 0 0 0
Gibaut 28 Majors RHRP High 3.8 -0.3 0.6 -0.9 0 0 0
Jewell 28 Majors RHRP Medium 5.0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Oviedo 23 Majors RHRP Medium 4.8 0.5 0.6 -0.1 0 0 0
Young 28 Majors SP LHRP Medium 3.8 -0.9 0.6 -1.5 0 0 0
Hedges 29 Majors C Medium 0.8 2.7 3.3 -0.6 -0.6 -0.3 0.0
Shaw 37 Majors RHRP Medium 0.8 -1.0 2.5 -3.5 -2.5 -2.5 -2.0
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Eli Morgan deserves another look in Cleveland Guardians rotation
by Steve DiMatteo22 minutes ago Follow @steve_dimatteo


Eli Morgan has made vast improvements from his rookie season – does he deserve another shot in the Guardians’ rotation?

Eli Morgan has been relegated to the Cleveland Guardians bullpen this season, which wasn’t a surprise going into the year. The Guardians’ rotation was back to full health and Morgan had a rocky rookie season with a 5.34 ERA in 18 starts.

But with his truly impressive run out of the bullpen to start 2022, Morgan deserves another look in the rotation. Aaron Civale, who has gotten off to a rough start himself, was recently placed on the 15-day IL with a sore left glute, leaving open an opportunity. Rookie Konnor Pilkington got the first crack at it Thursday night against the Tigers, giving up three runs and seven hits while walking four and striking out four in just 3 1/3 innings of work.

But really, it’s Morgan who should be getting a look. He gave the Guardians another three shutout innings of relief Thursday – striking out three while giving up neither a walk or a hit – and now owns a sparkling 2.70 ERA in ten appearances (one start), with 24 strikeouts in 20 innings and just three walks.

The Guardians seem to love him as the long man, and he’s thriving there, but he’s made too much of an improvement not to at least see how that might translate to the rotation.


What’s Behind Eli Morgan’s Improvement?
Most impressively, Morgan has added some zip on his four-seam fastball this season, which he can routinely throw around 92-93 mph; he averaged 90.5 mph on the fastball last year. He’s been throwing the changeup – his best pitch – more as well, at 26%, mixing in three other secondary pitches sporadically. He’s been keeping things more simple in the pen to great effect.

Morgan’s Statcast profile is an impressive sea of red at the moment as well. His xBA is a paltry .193 and his xERA is actually 2.61, suggesting he’s been even better than his actual ERA is telling us. Both his strikeout rate and walk rate rank among the top 10% o the league, which might be the most impressive stat of all. And all of that is wrapped in the bow of a 142 ERA+, making Morgan one of the best relievers in baseball so far this season.

When Civale returns from the IL, he’ll no doubt slide right back into the rotation, but both he and Zach Plesac, who has also struggled at times this year, have to know their roles could potentially change down the road. On the season, Civale has a 7.84 ERA in seven starts and is getting hit hard for an average exit velocity of 114 mph and the highest barrel rate of his career. Plesac, on the other hand, has shown a few decent glimpses at times, but still maintains a 5.40 ERA and an xBA of .318; he’s not fooling anybody right now.

The struggles of the rotation have certainly come as a shock to the Guardians, who were expecting it to once again be the biggest strength of the club. Even with a vastly improved offense, the inconsistency of the starters has been a major factor in Cleveland’s sub-.500 start, and with numerous young pitchers beginning to knock on the door to the majors, it’ll soon be time for the team to make some tough decisions.

Guys like Civale and Plesac will continue to get time to work out their struggles, but Morgan has earned the right to get another look in the rotation as well. And if Civale and Plesac can’t figure things out quick, that opportunity could come sooner than later.

How Guardians and Oscar Gonzalez were helped by MLB lockout




May 28, 2022; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Cleveland Guardians right fielder Oscar Gonzalez (39) hits a double in the sixth inning against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
By Jason Lloyd
May 29, 2022
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DETROIT — There is at least one benefit to Major League Baseball canceling the Rule 5 draft this year. He was standing in right field this weekend for the Guardians.

Try as they might, Cleveland could not finagle a way to fit Oscar Gonzalez on their 40-man roster in November. As it was, Chris Antonetti and Mike Chernoff made the unorthodox move of adding 11 minor leaguers, including six from Class AA and one from Class High A, to avoid losing them to the vultures of the Rule 5 process. The draft deadline preceded the lockout, and by the time an agreement was reached and baseball went through a fire drill to begin the season, there was no time for the draft.

It would’ve been useful information to have in November before the Guardians badly unbalanced their roster and clogged it up to protect their top prospects. Nevertheless, guys such as Gonzalez and left-hander Joey Cantillo likely would’ve been lost if the draft were held in March.

“I don’t know. Probably,” Guardians manager Terry Francona said when asked if Gonzalez would’ve been lost to the draft. Then he hedged — sort of. “Eh, I don’t know. I shouldn’t say that. But probably.”

Gonzalez is a free swinger with massive power, but contact is a battle and he’s deficient defensively. He did not rank among Keith Law’s top 20 Guardians prospects in the preseason, although he was listed under “others of note.”

“Gonzalez swings very hard with an unorthodox approach, producing plus-plus power without much selectivity,” Law wrote. “When you have more homers (31) than walks drawn (22), that’s less good.”

The Rule 5 draft has become a riddle wrapped in Steven Kwan’s chessboard. Francona doesn’t get too involved with the process. There’s an art to navigating other teams’ protected lists, determining who has space and who has a specific need. Free swinging corner outfielders aren’t exactly a commodity in short supply in baseball, which could be why the Guardians initially risked it. They had to stop adding guys at some point. Gonzalez is the opposite of the contact-heavy/power-developing batters who have become the standard for Cleveland prospects. It’s guys such as Kwan, Owen Miller, Myles Straw and Richie Palacios.

Gonzalez is the antithesis, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing, particularly while Franmil Reyes is on the injured list with a strained hamstring. Francona doesn’t believe Reyes’ injury is serious and they’ll go over a rehab program with him when they return to Cleveland on Monday.

Gonzalez is one of the few who reached Cleveland from the team’s academy in the Dominican Republic. The Guardians first arrived in San Antonio de Guerra, Dominican Republic, in 2011. Ownership invested capital repair money through a lease that is paid in multiple years. The academy is now valued at around $20 million and is one of the finest facilities in Latin America. It’s a 22-acre campus that can accommodate more than 120 players, coaches and staff members with dorms that can house up to 88 players.

The Guardians haven’t had much success with the academy to this point, but that should be changing soon. Jose Ramirez is the jewel to come through after he joined the organization when he was 12. Ramirez alone makes the investment worth it. Nevertheless, Ramirez and Danny Salazar are the only players to make any sort of impact on the major-league roster after traveling through the academy. Will Gonzalez join them? It’s too early to say. He laced two hits Saturday at Comerica Park, including a single to right-center, and is batting .500 after two games.

“He had actually swung at a ball up and in, I think that was the first time I’ve seen him swing at a ball yet, which is good,” Francona said. “Then the next pitch, he rifles one to right-center. If he can do that, that’s going to keep him dangerous. That’s going to keep you covering balls on the plate.”

Along with the capital repairs, the Guardians revamped their process of scouting and development in the Dominican and that academy could soon pay more dividends. It has taken three years, but guys such as George Valera, Jose Tena, Jhonkensy Noel and Brayan Rocchio are inching closer to Cleveland. All four spent time at the academy and all four were part of the 11 who were crammed on the 40-man roster in November.

The Guardians aren’t done. There are more difficult decisions ahead next offseason, and more prospects to add. They know at some point, they’re going to have to start making hard decisions and begin bundling some of these minor leaguers in trades or else they will certainly lose them.

For now, Gonzalez is the latest rookie to get a long look in Cleveland — after he almost wasn’t here at all.

Lloyd: Can José Ramírez break Guardians’ RBI record? It might come down to walks



CLEVELAND, OH - MAY 31: Cleveland Guardians designated hitter Jose Ramirez (11) advances to third base during the sixth inning of the Major League Baseball game between the Kansas City Royals and Cleveland Guardinas on May 31, 2022, at Progressive Field in Cleveland, OH. (Photo by Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire) (Icon Sportswire via AP Images)
By Jason Lloyd
May 31, 2022
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When Amed Rosario tripled in the first inning Tuesday night, the Royals never hesitated. José Ramírez hadn’t even reached the plate before Kansas City manager Mike Matheny elected to intentionally walk him. When Rosario doubled in the second, Matheny again walked Ramírez.

The only surprising part was that it took so long.

Tuesday marked the 45th game of the season for the Guardians and the first time an opponent had enough sense to intentionally walk the major’s RBI leader.

Ramírez didn’t have an RBI in Tuesday’s 8-3 win over the Royals, but he remains on pace to break Manny Ramirez’s club record of 165. It’s going to get increasingly difficult if teams start choosing to work around him whenever runners are on base.

Manny Ramirez had Hall of Famers hitting in front of him (Robbie Alomar) and behind him (Jim Thome) when he set the mark in 1999. NFL quarterbacks don’t get that type of protection. It’s no wonder Cleveland led the league in scoring with that lineup.

José Ramírez is simply not afforded those luxuries with Steven Kwan, Rosario, Franmil Reyes, Josh Naylor and Owen Miller often hitting around him.

“We’re young,” manager Terry Francona said.


And yet Ramírez continues to find ways to punish opponents despite Francona’s insistence that he doesn’t get many good pitches to hit. Ramírez was intentionally walked twice Tuesday, the same day he was named the American League’s player of the week and after he received the monthly honor for April.

The Guardians hover around the middle of the big leagues in most offensive categories. Ramírez entered Tuesday having scored or driven in one-third of their runs. MVP talk is a bit premature — it’s the end of May — but there’s little doubt that Ramírez is one of the most feared hitters in baseball. That makes the fact that he’s been intentionally walked just 15 times in the past four years even more surprising: Two of those seasons included an All-Star appearance and a second-place finish in the MVP voting.

Is it a lack of fear? The emergence of the shift? Austin Hedges believes it’s Ramírez’s speed. An intentional walk to Ramírez can lead to a stolen base, as it did Tuesday, and suddenly it’s a free double and a chance to score. Game-changing speed isn’t typically a factor with most of the players teams like to intentionally walk.

There are other theories, such as the fact that Ramírez is such a good bad-ball hitter. Pitchers can enter an at-bat believing they can work around him without intentionally walking him, but he’s such a good hitter that he can handle pitches off the plate inside and keep them fair. The same goes with low breaking pitches. He’s good enough to take pitches low out of the zone and turn on them. A pitcher might begin an at-bat believing he can get around Ramírez and still get punished.

“He doesn’t get a lot of pitches to hit,” Francona said. “He might get one during his at-bat. He’s just so smart. We’ve been fortunate sometimes where they’ve had to pitch to him.”

Barry Bonds was intentionally walked more times in his final season in the majors (43) than Ramírez has been intentionally walked in his career (36). Bonds, in fact, had six seasons with more than Ramírez’s 36 career intentional walks. Bonds was the most feared hitter of his generation. Ramírez isn’t quite that, but he warrants more fear than opponents typically show him.

Can he run down Manny’s club record? He has to stay relatively healthy, of course, although Manny missed 15 games in ’99 and still set the mark. Ramírez also has to avoid prolonged slumps and continue to receive opportunities with runners on base. The latter part is out of his control.

The Royals made sure to pitch to him Tuesday only when nobody was on. That will put more pressure on Myles Straw and whoever is hitting second, whether it’s Kwan or Rosario, to continue creating opportunities for him and forcing opposing managers to make difficult decisions.

“Josey is a premier player everywhere on the field,” Francona said. “He impacts the game everywhere. When you’re talking about Josey in those comparisons (to Manny), that’s a pretty big compliment, probably to both guys.”

Manny had 59 RBIs in his first 45 games in ’99; José has 51 so far.

Manny didn’t go more than four games without an RBI whenever he was in the lineup in ’99; José already had a five-game drought in April. Attrition and fatigue as the season drags on are real, and Ramírez will be tested to maintain this pace.

Those 165 RBIs in 1999 remain 14th on MLB’s single-season list and the highest total of the past 84 years. All of the other single-season RBI leaders ranked in the top 20 played between 1887 and 1938. Then there’s Manny Ramirez, the anomaly, illustrating just how difficult the path is that lies in front of José Ramírez.

Can he do it? If his health holds and his threat to take an extra bag prevents teams from intentionally walking him, then perhaps he has a shot. He has never played in all 162 games, but other than breaking a bone in his hand on a swing in 2019, he has stayed relatively healthy throughout his career.

“I hope people realize what they’re seeing because, I mean, my goodness,” Francona said. “He just is so, so good.”