Overanalyzing some surprising early-season Cleveland Guardians statistics



CINCINNATI, OHIO - APRIL 12: Shane Bieber #57 of the Cleveland Guardians throws a pitch against the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park on April 12, 2022 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
By Zack Meisel
Apr 20, 2022


CLEVELAND — In their four wins, the Guardians have scored 44 runs. In their five losses, the Guardians have mustered five runs.

They have resembled invincible, Marvel-concocted titans and they have resembled hapless, hitting-averse doormats. Such is life with a young team in a small sample. But that won’t stop us from analyzing. Which trends are real and which are mirages? Let’s take a look at some of the numbers that stand out through nine games.

Owen Miller is on pace for 126 doubles
The major-league record for doubles in a season is 67, by Earl Webb in 1931. Move aside, Earl.

Miller in 2021: .551 OPS, eight doubles in 60 games
Miller in 2022: 1.510 OPS, league-leading seven doubles in nine games

Odds are, Miller won’t finish the season with a .500/.545/.964 slash line. His track record and his hitting traits suggest he’s better than the .204/.243/.309 clip and 54:9 K:BB ratio from his 2021 rookie season would indicate, though. His metrics paint a bright picture: He has made a bunch of hard contact and has rarely swung and missed. As a result, not only has he produced jarring numbers, but he has wrestled away playing time from Bobby Bradley and Yu Chang as the team attempts to identify potential long-term lineup members to place around José Ramírez.

Cleveland’s starting pitchers have allowed three earned runs or fewer in all nine games
We can’t neglect to mention the disclaimer that the starters aren’t fully stretched out. No one has logged six innings yet. Still, it’s been an impressive early showing for the group.

• They have allowed four hits or fewer in eight of nine starts
• They have allowed two earned runs or fewer in seven of nine starts
• They rank seventh in the majors with a 3.00 ERA
• Opposing hitters have managed a .198/.267/.312 slash line against them
• They have yet to allow a run in the first inning
• They rank fifth in the majors in home run rate, but only 23rd in strikeout rate (Triston McKenzie’s six strikeouts in Cincinnati last week are a team-high)

The rotation has been Cleveland’s bedrock for years. That status doesn’t seem to be in any jeopardy.

Steven Kwan has a walk-to-strikeout ratio reminiscent of a player from the 1800s
Steven Kwan’s walk rate is Jim Thome-esque. His strikeout rate is Tony Gwynn-esque. Granted, he’s appeared in only eight games. He needs at least a few more 100-pitch stretches without a swing-and-miss before he’s granted a statue. That said, he has eight walks and only two strikeouts thus far, and his rates in those categories fall in line with some slap-happy hitters of yore, guys like Wee Willie Keeler, Stuffy McInnis and Pie Traynor. (OK, really, I just wanted to squeeze those names into a sentence.)

Kwan’s numbers are the product of elite strike zone awareness, pitch recognition and contact ability, attributes about which a manager daydreams when assembling the top of his order. Eight walks in eight games — and his first eight games, no less — is an impressive feat for a rookie, considering how many first-year players press as they attempt to make a promising first impression. Kwan’s walks and strikeouts will probably trend toward even over the course of the season, but he did walk more than he struck out at every minor-league level.

Emmanuel Clase has thrown sliders 39 percent of the time
Emmanuel Clase has faced 11 batters, so placing his ERA or FIP under a microscope seems especially silly. His pitch usage is worth noting, though. Clase saw a boost in effectiveness when he mixed his two offerings more last summer, a correlation that had his coaches and the organization’s pitching analysts encouraging him not to solely rely on his renowned cutter. So far, he has continued that better balance, though he has tossed only 44 pitches.

Clase’s slider usage, per month:
April 2021: 22.5%
May 2021: 19.8%
June 2021: 21.2%
July 2021: 38.5%
August 2021: 34.2%
Sept. 2021: 40.9%
April 2022: 38.6%

Franmil Reyes is on pace for zero home runs
It’s been an ugly start, one he has acknowledged. Franmil Reyes is slashing .150/.171/.150. Slash lines like that were the driving force behind the league’s decision to adopt the designated hitter in the National League.

He’s 6-for-40 with 15 strikeouts, one walk, four ground-ball double plays, no extra-base hits and an OPS+ of minus-2. An OPS+ of 100 is league average. Reyes’ OPS+ is a negative number. League average is the sun. Reyes’ OPS is some ice-covered rock light-years past Pluto.

Again, it’s been nine games. Reyes has been a streaky hitter in the past. His metrics reveal he simply hasn’t made enough hard contact — or contact at all, really. He ranks in the 4th percentile in whiff percentage, and has whiffed on 66.7 percent of his swings on breaking balls.

Reyes’ hard-hit percentile, by year:
2019: 98th percentile
2020: 79th percentile
2021: 87th percentile
2022: 36th percentile



Shane Bieber’s velocity is noticeably down
Shane Bieber brushed aside velocity concerns after his Opening Day start, when his fastball sat around 90 mph. He reminded (this) reporter(s) (I) asked similar questions after his season debut amid a winter wonderland in Detroit a year earlier. It should be expected, though, for those who follow the team to over-examine how he rebounds after missing half of last season with a shoulder injury.

Bieber’s average April fastball velocity:
April 2019: 93.0 mph
April 2021: 93.0 mph
April 2022: 90.8 mph

Bieber’s average fastball velocity, by month:
April 2021: 93.0 mph
May 2021: 93.0 mph
June 2021: 92.4 mph
Sept. 2021: 91.2 mph
April 2022: 90.8 mph

Again, we’re dealing with a sample size small enough to prompt overreaction and nitpicking. Bieber’s velocity did slightly increase in his second start, in Cincinnati. His third start, thanks to conditions that wouldn’t aid any pitcher’s quest to throw harder, has twice been pushed back.

Cleveland’s catchers have totaled one hit
Austin Hedges is 1-for-22. Bryan Lavastida is 0-for-7. Luke Maile is expected to join the club on the West Coast next week, barring a setback on his rehab assignment, but he’s not exactly a bat-toting savior. Maile owns a career .568 OPS. This figures to be the lineup’s primary source of weakness throughout the season. Hedges offers occasional pop, but nothing in the form of consistent production.

Hello and welcome to the Guardians Newsletter! Just a reminder: I’m Mandy Bell and this is my fourth year covering Cleveland for MLB.com. I’m excited to bring all things Guardians directly to your inbox all year. Thanks for following along!

 
FOR ARIAS, CALLUP SHORT BUT SWEET

Without a doubt, one of the best things about baseball is callup stories.

It’s a time when young players realize their dreams have come true. Nothing else matters but playing the game they love at the highest level possible. And we get to sit back and watch the emotions of all of this taking place. Guardians No. 3 prospect Gabriel Arias was no different.

Arias was added to the roster as the 29th man for Wednesday's doubleheader against the White Sox, which means he knew he wasn’t going to be around for more than a day. But that didn’t matter when he walked into the clubhouse, peeked at the Game 1 lineup and saw his name inked at the seventh spot in the order at second base.

“I have to confess,” Arias said through team interpreter Agustin Rivero, “I [had] a couple of tears come down when I saw my name up there.”

Arias couldn’t prevent a big cheesy grin from emerging on his face the entire time he met with media Wednesday morning. Not breaking camp with the team out of Spring Training was a difficult pill for him to swallow, considering he had a strong spring campaign both this year and last. So, just to be able to taste the big leagues -- even if just for 24 hours -- was enough to build his confidence even higher.

Arias was hitless in his first game, but returned to the lineup in the nightcap, starting at third base. In the fourth inning, he served a single into right field to record his first big league hit. The Guardians’ bench yelled for the ball to be thrown into the dugout for Arias to save as a keepsake.


When the ball made its way out of play, it found its way into the hands of José Ramírez, who stepped out on the field and pretended to throw it into the crowd, playfully taunting Arias at first base. After a couple of pump fakes, Ramírez ran into the dugout, got a second ball and came back out to throw the extra ball into the stands. He waved Arias’ first hit souvenir in the air to prove he didn’t get rid of it -- because, let’s face it, it’s Ramírez and we’d believe he’d do anything.

Arias got that ball and a few other keepsakes from his first day in the big leagues. When asked what he was going to do with all of it, he didn’t hesitate: He will give it to his grandfather.

“Without support you're not able to become a player at any age," Arias said, when asked why his grandfather was so important to him. "More than that, he was the one taking me to baseball games when I was a little kid.”

 

The Guardians’ present and future lineups and the next wave of contract extension candidates: Meisel’s Mailbag


NEW YORK — Let’s get straight to your questions, which have been lightly edited for the sake of clarity.

It’s obviously early, but at what point do you believe Terry Francona considers moving Franmil Reyes out of the 4-spot. We’ve all seen his power potential and it’s great, but the man just looks lost out there. Is he holding the offense back? Again, I know it’s early. — Joe B.

Well, you answered your own question by twice noting “it’s early,” and it’s a bit easier to answer this inquiry now that Reyes slugged a two-run homer on Thursday afternoon. It’s been (an admittedly brutal) 49 plate appearances. But for future reference, consider the case of Carlos Santana in 2014. It took until May 18 — Game 44 — for Francona to shift Santana out of the cleanup spot. At the time, he was carrying a .156/.319/.293 slash line. That same day, Francona also slid Nick Swisher, who owned a .203/.303/.323 slash line, out of the 2-spot. Santana recovered to post a .792 OPS with a league-leading walk total. Swisher did not.

Steven Kwan had unbelievable numbers to start the season, but what would be a realistic outlook for his rookie campaign? — Joseph R.

Toward the end of spring training, in a fantasy baseball roundtable on The Athletic, I was asked to project his slash line. I went with .280/.335/.400. I thought that would be more than solid for a rookie, but it appears I may have underestimated him. Many have noted his lack of strikeouts and swings and misses, but his walk rate is equally eye-opening and provides him a high floor in terms of production at the plate. So, if he does wind up hitting, say, .290 or so, he’ll do so with a highly impressive on-base percentage.

Who would you predict to start on Opening Day 2023 for the Guardians at RF, LF, SS, 2B, and 1B? — Alex C.

I’ll even list my predictions in order of confidence. Let’s go with Kwan in left field, Josh Naylor at first base, Gabriel Arias at shortstop, Andrés Giménez at second base and … (hems a bit) … (haws a bit) … Nolan Jones in right field.

Owen Miller could very well cement his place in the everyday lineup, but his defensive assignment is a bit hazier. Even with the aforementioned arrangement, he could secure at least semi-regular playing time at first or second, since just about everyone on this club can play multiple positions.

Once Jones is healthy, the team needs to learn whether he can handle big-league pitching. Tyler Freeman could factor into the equation at second base, too. And those trials need to take place because at some point next year, George Valera and Brayan Rocchio could be ready to wreak havoc on opposing pitchers. Another wrinkle to this prompt that the team could consider this summer or winter would be packaging a couple of these guys (and/or younger prospects) for a proven corner outfielder. This is a fun, yet impossible exercise. I could probably supply a different answer each week.

With the extension bonanza, who is the next candidate? Is it safe to assume Shane Bieber won’t take a hometown discount like José Ramírez to stay in Cleveland? — Andrew L.

What are the chances that Shane Bieber receives a contract extension? I’m shocked he hasn’t been right in line with the others or before some of them. Thanks! — Livia G.

I’d be surprised if any other players landed an extension before the offseason. Chris Antonetti indicated in Kansas City that the team was finished with discussions for the time being. Bieber and the front office have discussed a long-term pact in recent years, but I don’t think the conversations have ever gained a ton of traction. Maybe Reyes will be a candidate next spring. Depending on which starting pitchers thrive in 2022, Cal Quantrill or Aaron Civale or Zach Plesac could be an option.

Another idea: If the organization is confident — like, really confident — in a prospect such as Arias or Rocchio or Valera (a pitcher seems less likely, given injury risks) next spring or the spring after, could it lock one of them into a long-term deal to cover future arbitration costs and a free-agent year or two?

Just found this stat: The Indians/Guardians have not had the same Opening Day outfield in back-to-back seasons since 1999-2000 with David Justice, Kenny Lofton and Manny Ramirez. — Jonathan O.

How about this…

The last 11 seasons, the team has had 11 different Opening Day right fielders: Steven Kwan, Josh Naylor, Domingo Santana, Tyler Naquin, Lonnie Chisenhall, Abraham Almonte, Collin Cowgill, Brandon Moss, David Murphy, Drew Stubbs and Shin-Soo Choo.

The last nine seasons, the team has had nine different Opening Day center fielders: Myles Straw, Jordan Luplow, Oscar Mercado, Leonys Martín, Bradley Zimmer, Naquin, Rajai Davis, Michael Bourn and Nyjer Morgan.

The last seven seasons, the team has had seven different Opening Day left fielders: Amed Rosario, Eddie Rosario, Luplow, Jake Bauers, Naquin, Michael Brantley and Marlon Byrd.

Straw should end the revolving door in center. Perhaps Kwan and, eventually, Valera or Jones will halt the constant turnover in the corners.

Any chance we see Daniel Espino this year? — Brian S.

The only scenario I could envision would be if the team is in the thick of contention and opts to deploy him as a multi-inning relief weapon late in the summer. Even that might be a stretch. Espino has totaled 16 strikeouts in 8 2/3 innings in his first two starts at Double-A Akron. He seems poised to debut his elite fastball and slider in the majors in 2023.

Does this front office have any plans of upgrading at catcher or are they fine with Austin Hedges batting under .200 (if he ever even gets close to that)? — Cody K.

Oakland’s Sean Murphy makes sense as a trade target, since he has four years of team control. He’d surely cost a lot. As things stand, Bo Naylor and Bryan Lavastida are the club’s future at catcher. But when will that future arrive? Naylor needs a strong rebound season after a rough 2021. Lavastida is still relatively new to the catcher position, and this is an organization that values defense behind the plate. Luke Maile is expected to join the club on the West Coast next week, replacing Lavastida, who has barely played at Triple A. Hedges can be a free agent at the end of the season. Will the team need another stopgap or will Naylor and Lavastida be ready?

In the midst of all the big contract extensions, I saw on FanGraphs and Spotrac that Zach Plesac signed a $2 million contract for 2022. As far as I can tell, he wasn’t Super Two eligible, and he’s still listed as having three more years of arbitration. Did I miss this signing? I can’t find any stories online. — Martin L.

Plesac is indeed earning $2 million this season, he was not Super Two eligible, and he will have three more seasons in which he’ll be arbitration eligible. It’s the result of an agreement between the league and the players’ union, following the handling of Plesac’s service time in 2020, I was told. After Plesac and Mike Clevinger violated the team’s COVID-19 protocols in Chicago that August, the club placed both pitchers on the restricted list and then optioned them to the minors. Plesac spent nearly three weeks at the club’s alternate training site.

My buddy and I had a bet going on who could most closely guess your Top 30 list. Are we ever going to see the rest of that series? Can you at least tell us the finishing order so we can settle our bet? — Michael P.

Yes, we’ll eventually resume the Cleveland Baseball Countdown. The lockout ended so late that there were a million stories to publish in a short period of time, so it took a backseat once we reached the halfway point. Much of the series is already written and set in order, but for a reasonable price, I’d gladly stick Matt Lawton or Casey Blake or Michael Martinez in the top spot.

Any chance we see Daniel Espino this year? —

I think there is. Management has pushed top pitching prospects from Akron to Columbus in short order. Bieber recently; Nagy decades back; and sometimes bypassed AAA altogether: McKenzie and of course Sabathia.
Espino is perhaps the highest pitching prospect since C C.
After striking out 14 in 5 innings and walking none on Saturday he's going to only get higher marks.
Looking forward to updated Top 100 lists for his surge.

NAHEIM -- Monday night’s 3-0 loss to the Angels at Angel Stadium was mostly one to forget for the Guardians. The offense was held to just three hits and Shane Bieber’s solid performance was tarnished by two homers from Angels leadoff man Taylor Ward. Yet, it was a night that No. 18 prospect Richie Palacios -- and his parents -- will always remember.

Just 24 hours prior to first pitch, Palacios was in Indianapolis, wrapping up a series with Triple-A Columbus, having no idea that he would soon get the call that he’s dreamed of receiving since he was a little kid.

It was inevitable that Palacios would get a chance at the Major League level at some point this season, but the end of April seemed ambitious, considering he didn’t get off to the hottest of starts at the plate with Columbus. But when Steven Kwan started experiencing left hamstring tightness in New York on Sunday, the team knew it needed an extra body in the outfield. That’s when Palacios was called into manager Andy Tracy’s office.

“He said, 'You're going to the big leagues,'” Palacios recalled, with a big grin. “I was extremely excited. Started clapping.”

He immediately picked up his phone to call his parents, who were back in New York after spending time in Pennsylvania earlier in the day, watching his older brother, Josh, play for Triple-A Rochester -- an affiliate of the Nationals.

“I was screaming, but not screaming because no words were coming out,” his mother, Lianne, said. “I think it was overwhelming for him because he was just quiet for a while as we were celebrating in our home in Brooklyn.”

It’s easy to understand how this moment would be overwhelming. Palacios was born into a baseball family. His father, Richie Senior, was a Minor Leaguer. His uncle, Rey Palacios, played for the Royals. And his older brother, Josh, made his Major League debut last April.

“He just had a greater desire and breed of hunger to [play] more and more as he got older,” Richie Senior said. “And then the willingness to work and the work ethics to put in to become better, it was just amazing to see that develop before us.”

That passion took him to Towson University, where he became the highest-drafted player in school history, getting selected in the third round of the 2018 MLB Draft by Cleveland. But just shortly after he joined the organization, he suffered a setback, having to undergo surgery on his right (throwing) shoulder to repair a torn labrum.

“It was pretty tough,” Richie Senior said. “He’s put so much into this and so many years into it and he sacrificed everything. And to see he had to put a pause and it was beyond his control, our control, it made it very difficult, emotionally.”

“Receiving that call as a mother, it definitely broke my heart to know that I was so far away from him,” Lianne said. “But we knew he would be able to overcome it. Our kids are from Brooklyn. They can overcome a lot of things.”

After his injury, Palacios had to find a way to keep working during a COVID-canceled 2020 season. He returned to hit .297 with an .874 OPS between Double-A and Triple-A in 2021. And even though he got off to a slow offensive start this season, he smacked his first homer of the year on Sunday, unknowingly setting the tone for what was to come the next day.

As soon as Palacios got the news, Richie Senior and Lianne scrambled to find flights to get them to Anaheim before first pitch. The long day of travel was rewarded when the couple got to California and learned that their son had been penciled into the last spot in the lineup, starting in left field.

It became even more exciting when he logged a 102 mph base hit in his first career at-bat. And if you can’t imagine how emotional of a day it was for the Palacios family, his mother gave a glimpse of how much it meant to them when she was mid-interview on Bally Sports Cleveland’s broadcast when her son picked up another single in his second at-bat.

“Amazing,” Palacios said, of having his parents in the crowd. “I mean, they sacrificed so much for me, so it’s only right I put a little show on for them.”

Palacios couldn’t help Cleveland get in the win column, but he was able to walk away with a few baseballs, the lineup card that had his name on it for the very first time and a memory that he and his family will never forget.

“I’m keeping [the balls and lineup card],” Palacios said, “and keeping them close to the heart.”

Shane Bieber, the Cleveland Guardians’ starters and a mysterious drop in fastball velocity



ANAHEIM, CALIFORNIA - APRIL 25: Shane Bieber #57 of the Cleveland Guardians pitches during the first inning of a game against the Los Angeles Angels at Angel Stadium of Anaheim on April 25, 2022 in Anaheim, California. (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)
By Zack Meisel


NEW YORK — It is not Shane Bieber’s favorite topic to discuss. That much seems evident. He would prefer, understandably, to direct you to his ERA, to the effectiveness of his slider and curveball, to opposing hitters’ miserable numbers against him.

But there’s one number that’s difficult to ignore: 90.7. That’s the average velocity, in miles per hour, of Bieber’s fastball in his four outings, a significant drop from last season, an even more significant drop from the season before that and, it’s worth noting, a noticeable dip from his usual April velocity.

Now, it’s unfair to mention Bieber’s velocity plunge without also offering the reminder that he owns a 2.82 ERA and a 2.93 FIP, and that he has limited hitters to a .573 OPS. He could probably throw underhand and still submit a quality start.

How long, though, can he maintain his dominance without a trusty 93 or 94-mph heater? Is this a new iteration of Bieber, or will he regain the zip on his fastball by the time summer arrives?

This mystery calls for an investigation. Let’s start by going straight to the source himself.

“I feel good,” Bieber told The Athletic. “I’m getting good results. Do I want to throw harder? Yeah. It’ll come. That’s how I feel. I wish I could give you more, but to give you more, I’d have to be tripping about it and I’m not really tripping about it.”

Bieber offered two possible explanations. First, spring training lasted only three weeks, instead of the customary six. He noted his start Monday night against his hometown Angels would have been his Opening Day outing had the lockout not caused a truncated spring slate. He also, on Monday, became the first Cleveland starter to reach the 100-pitch mark. Joe Torres, the club’s assistant pitching coach, said there’s usually a dead-arm period pitchers endure late in spring training that they could instead be experiencing during their April starts because of the altered schedule.

Bieber’s average fastball velocity in his four outings:
April 7 at Kansas City: 90.6 mph
April 12 at Cincinnati: 91.0 mph
April 20 vs. Chicago: 90.2 mph
April 25 at Anaheim: 91.1 mph

Would he be concerned if his fastball is hovering around 90-91 mph in, say, July?

“I don’t think that will be a thing,” he said.

Hitters vs. Bieber's fastball, 2018-22
93+ mph
0.225
0.397
Less than 93 mph
0.347
0.592
One front office source said the club’s coaches and analysts have asked the same questions, but are not urgently tracking any specific concerns.

Bieber is aiming to make 30-plus starts after he totaled only 28 the last two years because of the pandemic and a shoulder strain. It would be understandable if he were attempting to ease into the new season to ensure he has enough strength in September, but Bieber indicated he hasn’t made a conscious effort to do that.

Bieber’s average fastball velocity in March/April, by year:
2019: 93.0 mph
2021: 93.0 mph
2022: 90.7 mph

As for Bieber’s second point, he and the team’s pitching gurus identified some mechanical tweaks required to correct some bad habits Bieber developed once his shoulder started barking last year. Torres said the three-and-a-half-month communication ban during the lockout cost pitchers valuable feedback as they worked their arms back into shape.

“There are things we’re still ironing out,” Torres said.

Carl Willis suggested Bieber was “trying to protect himself” last season in the outings leading up to Bieber’s injured list stint. Bieber insisted the difference in how he feels on the mound now, compared to last June, is “night and day,” but he admitted his delivery is not a finished product.

“Once I get to a good spot when I feel comfortable with all of that,” Bieber said, “then I can take my brain out of my mechanics and all of my movement and just go out there and be athletic and throw the shit out of the ball. Hopefully, that’s pretty soon.”

Willis thinks it will be. He said the staff’s tests that evaluate a pitcher’s strength and explosiveness have trended in the right direction for Bieber in recent weeks, so “you would think that’s going to translate,” he said.

“Odds are, there’s more in the tank,” Willis said. “We didn’t get that far in spring training and here it is. We know how to get beyond it. It just hasn’t shown itself yet. A lot of theories, but hopefully they’re the right theories.”

The league-wide average fastball velocity so far this season is 93.7 mph, which is actually a tick above the league-wide number from last season, 93.4 mph.

That hasn’t been the case in Cleveland, even though a Guardians starter has only once allowed more than three earned runs in the first three weeks of the season. Bieber isn’t alone; average velocity has been down for Zach Plesac, Cal Quantrill and Aaron Civale, too.

Cleveland's SP fastball velocity
Shane Bieber
90.7 mph
92.8 mph
93.0 mph
Zach Plesac
90.8 mph
92.8 mph
92.6 mph
Cal Quantrill
92.6 mph
94.3 mph
94.3 mph
Aaron Civale
90.1 mph
91.4 mph
91.2 mph
Triston McKenzie
92.3 mph
92.1 mph
91.2 mph
Of his six pitches, Civale throws his cutter most often (about 30 percent of the time this season). His average cutter velocity is down 2.1 mph, though it ticked up in his start at Yankee Stadium on Sunday. He said after the rough outing that as the season unfolds and coaches can use video and data to help repair issues that popped up in the spring or while the pitchers were training on their own during the lockout, the velocity will be restored.

“We’re trending in the right direction,” Torres said. “There’s no concern.”

Bieber hasn’t induced as many swings and misses as he typically does. His whiff rate, which registered at 40.7 percent and 36.4 percent the last two years, is sitting at 29.4 percent in 2022. His strikeout rate, while still about one per inning, has plummeted to middle of the pack after ranking among the league leaders the last three years. His slider and curveball have continued to mystify hitters, and Willis raved about his command of all of his pitches, no matter the speed at which they travel toward the plate.

“They’re setting an unbelievable foundation for themselves,” Torres said. “When the stuff comes back on top of that, we feel good about what can happen.”

“They’re setting an unbelievable foundation for themselves,” Torres said. “When the stuff comes back on top of that, we feel good about what can happen.”

That's pretty telling. Without directly saying it this team has a plan to have pitchers acclimate slowly - first working on command. Velocity later.

GuardsInsider
@GuardsInsider
·
8m
The
@CleGuardians
today claimed RHP Luis Oviedo off waivers from the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Returns to the Guardians system after signing in July 2015, spending four seasons with Cleveland before Dec 2020 Rule 5 selection Spent 2021 in the
@Pirates
bullpen

Was interesting prospect before we lost him

How the Guardians can solve their offensive issues from within

ANAHEIM -- The Guardians haven’t gone through a skid like this since the beginning of July last season.

Tuesday night's 4-1 defeat to the Angels at Angel Stadium extended Cleveland’s losing streak to five games after the team's attempt to find some consistency with a sweep of the White Sox last week. But a rough series in New York and two rocky showings in Anaheim have the Guardians at their lowest point since a nine-game losing skid nine months ago.

Cleveland was held to just two hits through the first eight frames on Tuesday, before a last-ditch effort in the ninth resulted in a single, double and one run to avoid being shut out for the second consecutive night.
José Ramírez's RBI double

Apr 27, 2022

·

0:29
José Ramírez's RBI double

We can state the obvious that the team needs to start stringing hits together to right the ship -- but instead, let’s take a look at three other factors that have played a large role in the offense’s continued struggles:

Hard-hit rate is alarmingly low
When a team’s Baseball Savant page has more blue areas than red, that's a sign that it’s going through tough times. Cleveland ranks among the lowest in the league in crucial categories like expected batting average (.242), expected slugging percentage (.397) and average exit velocity (87.6 mph). But the most problematic stat might be its low hard-hit rate (34%), which ranked near the very bottom of the Majors entering Tuesday.

The Guardians have been able to put plenty of balls in play and have kept their strikeout numbers down, considering the offensive difficulties they’ve had. But the team has struggled to barrel pitches and make hard contact. A hard-hit ball is defined as anything that clocks in at 95 mph or higher. And it goes without saying that the weaker the contact, the easier the out.

Aside from Owen Miller (who owns a 53.6 hard-hit percentage), the team doesn’t have any other hitters who rank favorably in this category. And if the Guardians are looking to quickly turn things around, it’s going to need more than one bat making solid contact.
José Ramírez's sliding stop

Apr 26, 2022

·

0:23
José Ramírez's sliding stop

Cleanup spot has gone ice cold
Speaking of difficulties making contact, the Guardians currently have a big hole at arguably the most crucial spot in the lineup: Cleanup. Franmil Reyes has proven in his time in Cleveland that he can be extremely streaky at the plate -- and right now, he’s hit a cold patch.

Reyes has gone 0-for-his-last-13 with nine punchouts, punctuated with a whopping four-strikeout night on Tuesday. And for a team that hasn’t struck out too often, Reyes has caused the strikeout percentage to skew higher with his 27 K’s -- tied for the most in the Majors with Atlanta’s Dansby Swanson.

Strikeouts are a large part of today’s game, especially with power hitters who are often swinging for the fences. But when the homers and hits aren’t mixed in regularly, it becomes quite a problem. And for now, the Guardians are going to hope that Reyes can turn hot just as quickly as he went cold.

“There's been a few at-bats where he chased down soft,” manager Terry Francona said of Reyes' rough patch. “Yesterday he chased up hard. Just got to get to a point where you're swinging at pitches you can handle. Sometimes that's easier said than done.”

They’re missing Kwan
When only three players on the Guardians’ roster boast at least one red category on Baseball Savant, it’s hard to continue on without one of them. Miller was missing at the start of this losing skid due to a positive COVID-19 test and as soon as he returned to the team, early-season standout Steven Kwan was sidelined with left hamstring tightness.
BK digs in on Steven Kwan

Apr 26, 2022

·

3:29
BK digs in on Steven Kwan
Get the latest from the Guardians

Have the latest news, ticket information, and more from the Guardians and MLB delivered right to your inbox.

The Guardians are expected to know more on Wednesday about Kwan’s status. The hope is that he’ll just need another day or two before returning to the lineup, but there’s still a chance he’ll have to spend a short stint on the injured list. And even though he only has 14 big league games under his belt, he’s proven to be one of the most reliable hitters in the lineup. Despite his low hard-hit rate (20%), he’s still manufactured a .341 average with a .956 OPS.

If the Guardians can get Kwan back in the lineup, find a way to ignite Reyes’ bat and make a little better contact at the plate, there’s no reason the team won’t find its way back in the win column.

"Cleveland is down a little bit the last couple days, but don't be deceived, they're a very good ballclub,” Angels manager Joe Maddon said. “They can jump up and bite you at any time. Their bench is loaded with left-handers. They're just a really good team."

Postgame Transactions

+Designated LHP Logan Allen and INF Bobby Bradley for assignment
+Activated RHP Anthony Castro from the COVID IL and optioned him to AAA Columbus
+Major League roster is at 26 players; 40-man is at 39.

8:41 PM · May 1, 2022·TweetDeck

Meanwhile Logan Allen had a great April for Akron.
No alternate Bradleys available

Revisiting the Mike Clevinger trade from Cleveland’s perspective, 20 months later


By Zack Meisel

CLEVELAND — For the first time in 19 months, the guy with the chestnut-colored hair that dangles from his cap, the guy whose arm rocks back and forth like a pendulum as he stares down his catcher, the guy with the herky-jerky windup and the Cade York-like follow-through, will stand atop a major-league mound.

And, as fate would have it, in one of those beautifully scripted baseball storylines, he’ll do so in Cleveland, against his old pal Zach Plesac, the day before Cal Quantrill, a key piece in the Mike Clevinger trade, faces his former Padres team.

The guy dubbed “Sunshine” is no stranger to the Progressive Field mound, where he spent parts of five seasons. When the Padres dealt for him in August 2020, they were acquiring two and a half years of what seemed like a burgeoning ace. Clevinger owned a 2.96 ERA in his three-plus seasons as a full-time starting pitcher for Cleveland.

When Cleveland acquired him for the final gasps of Vinnie Pestano’s career, Clevinger was a lost pitching soul, struggling in his return from Tommy John surgery. With assistance from the organization’s pitching wizards, he developed into a power pitcher whose fastball regularly sat in the mid-to-upper 90s, with an array of effective off-speed pitches at his disposal.

A few weeks before the trade amid a chaotic, shortened season, Clevinger was punished for violating the team’s COVID-19 protocols. And though he’s undeniably athletic, he has something of a violent delivery.

But who would have imagined that, 20 months after the nine-player deal, Clevinger would have supplied San Diego with only four regular-season starts totaling 19 innings, and one postseason frame? Clevinger underwent his second elbow reconstruction surgery in November 2020, which caused him to miss the entire 2021 campaign. He can become a free agent at the end of this season, around the time of his 32nd birthday.

For the Padres, a team that was evolving from plucky upstart to aspiring National League juggernaut, the concept of trading for Clevinger, especially given his team control, made perfect sense at the time. When it didn’t pan out, they traded for Yu Darvish … and Blake Snell … and Joe Musgrove … and Sean Manaea.

For Clevinger, they parted with a haul of six players. Cleveland was headed for an awkward transition phase, with Francisco Lindor’s time with the franchise dwindling and the rotation undergoing a transformation. The front office sought young major leaguers and upper-level prospects. San Diego had a stocked farm system, and Cleveland wound up with three prospects and three big leaguers. One source said the club explored that sort of arrangement, as well as a deal centered on a couple of top prospects. Cleveland also included Matt Waldron, a starting pitcher who is now a knuckleballer at the Padres’ Double-A affiliate, and outfielder Greg Allen, who has since bounced to the Yankees and the Pirates. One source summed up the trade 20 months later by saying “holy shit” in regards to Cleveland’s return before noting the Padres, obviously, would be feeling much better about the deal had Clevinger not missed so much time.

Let’s review the six San Diego players who joined Cleveland’s organization in the summer of 2020 and how they’ve fared.


Cal Quantrill reacts after a strikeout. (Jayne Kamin-Oncea / USA Today)
Cal Quantrill
Quantrill owns a 2.85 ERA in 186 innings since joining Cleveland’s staff. He produced better than just about every American League starting pitcher after the All-Star break last season, once he settled into a routine in Cleveland’s crumbling rotation. He’s sort of a throwback pitcher, a guy who consistently outperforms his metrics with a sinker/cutter combination. Quantrill is not eligible for free agency until after the 2025 season.

Josh Naylor
It might be easy to forget Naylor is only 24; he debuted three years ago, when he was barely of legal drinking age. The 2020 season was truncated because of the pandemic, and then Naylor wrecked his leg and missed more than half of the 2021 season. So, 2022 is a chance for him to cement himself as a lineup mainstay, and he’s off to a great start with a .313/.340/.479 slash line through 50 plate appearances. He has drawn only two walks, but his strikeout rate is impressive for a hitter with his size and aggressive approach. His reliability in the early going blocked Bobby Bradley’s path to playing time, which ultimately factored into Bradley being designated for assignment on Sunday.

Owen Miller
Imagine being told in, say, January that Miller would be batting fourth in late April, not Franmil Reyes, because José Ramírez needed better lineup protection. Once you reattached your head to your neck, you’d peer into your crystal ball and see that Miller was one of the league’s top hitters in April. He has posted a .377/.444/.660 slash line, with an unlimited supply of doubles, an excellent walk rate and elite average exit velocity. This is the hitter the club targeted, not the overmatched rookie from 2021.

Austin Hedges
The value Hedges provides comes from his glove, his chest protector and his inputs on the new PitchCom device. As for his bat, well, at least he found a home in an organization that prioritizes the other facets of a catcher’s game. Hedges had one more year of team control than Roberto Pérez did, which made him appealing to Cleveland because he could serve as a bridge to the next catching tandem, which appears to be Bo Naylor and Bryan Lavastida.

Gabriel Arias
He’s off to a slow start at Triple-A Columbus this season, but he did excel at that level last season as a 21-year-old. He stood out to many of the team’s evaluators the past two springs, and it says something that the Guardians promoted him to be their extra player for the doubleheader against Chicago last homestand, a role often reserved for a pitcher. The Guardians wanted to reward Arias with a taste of what’s to come, potentially this summer, if he gets on track and the team creates an opening in the middle infield. Arias is a top-100 prospect, according to Baseball America, MLB Pipeline and Baseball Prospectus, though The Athletic’s Keith Law deemed him Cleveland’s 12th-best prospect entering 2022. Law did include him a year ago on a list of prospects who just missed his top 100.

Joey Cantillo
The Guardians have seen about as much of Cantillo as the Padres have of Clevinger. Cantillo has totaled only 28 innings since the trade, in part because of the pandemic. He’s known for his changeup, and in 15 innings this season at Double-A Akron, he has totaled 23 strikeouts. A high walk rate has prevented Cantillo from recording an ERA lower than the 4.20 mark he sports this year. The Guardians left him unprotected ahead of the Rule 5 draft this offseason. He seemed like the sort of pitcher a team might try to hide in its bullpen, the way Cleveland did with Trevor Stephan last year. But, thanks to the lockout, the Rule 5 draft never took place, leaving the Guardians with all six players they acquired for Clevinger.

The Bauer trade has not worked so well but at least we got rid of Bauer. The Reds benefited from his pitching for awhile and then luckily lost him too.
To get him they traded big deal prospect Taylor Trammell who has been a big deal flop

We got Pugh, for a little while
And Logan Allen who didn't help much and has been DFAd
and Scott Moss who never reached the majors and has been DFAd by Cleveland and then a couple months later by Scott Moss
And Franmil Reyes who sometimes is a good middle of the order power hitter. And sometime not.

So asked BA a question and has they often do, they disprove the premise of the question and prove that the Guardians are actually are a power laden team. Are they?

When the Guardians needed another outfielder, they bypassed Gonzalez the slugger for Palacios the slasher. Other than Jose Ramirez [and Reyes if starts hitting] Cleveland is going against the grain with a singles-doubles-walks offense. Can that work in the modern era? I'd think that would be a way to avoid streaks but by contrast the Guardians dont' have any one-game winning or losing streaks this spring. What gives?


Kyle Glaser: The Guardians have the sixth-highest slugging percentage in the majors. And that’s with Franmil Reyes yet to get going. They’re not hurting for power. They’re top six in both batting average and slugging percentage – they’re good at both making contact and hitting for power right now, which is a recipe for success in any era.