José Ramírez’s place in the AL MVP race, and what makes Cleveland’s third baseman so good
Sep 9, 2021; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Indians third baseman Jose Ramirez (11) runs the bases before being caught in a rundown against the Minnesota Twins in the first inning at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports
By Zack Meisel 1h ago 5
NEW YORK — There are, believe it or not, a few steps José Ramírez can take to work his way into the American League MVP conversation that revolves around Shohei Ohtani and, to a lesser extent, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
First, Ramírez would need to bathe in the fairy dust Carl Willis and Ruben Niebla sprinkle on their starting pitchers. Then, he’d need to join Cleveland’s rotation and author a series of masterpieces on the mound for the final two weeks of the season. Finally, he’d need to record a barrage of home runs and stolen bases, the sort of surge Albert Belle rode to the end of the 1995 season. (Mo Vaughn topping Belle for the AL MVP that year was a travesty.)
OK, even a superhuman performance from Ramírez the rest of the way wouldn’t be enough to vault him into the AL MVP debate. The race is pretty clear-cut, with Ohtani and Guerrero at the top and a significant gap separating the rest of the pack. Ramírez should fall into that second tier, but there are plenty of candidates who could sneak onto voters’ ballots, including Cedric Mullins, Marcus Semien, Salvador Perez, Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts, Aaron Judge, Carlos Correa, José Altuve, Matt Olson, Kyle Tucker and Teoscar Hernández.
Ramírez ranks fourth in the AL in position player fWAR, with 5.3, though that excludes Ohtani, who has amassed 7.3 fWAR overall.
Ramírez’s slash line — .258/.348/.539 — is impressive, though by his standards it seems slightly underwhelming. He has been an MVP finalist (top three in his league) in three of the past four years. No player in baseball can match that claim.
Ramírez in 2021 vs. his MVP finalist seasons:
2017: .957 OPS, 146 wRC+
2018: .939 OPS, 147 wRC+
2020: .993 OPS, 164 wRC+
2021: .887 OPS, 132 wRC+
He might need a sizzling finish to sneak into the top three for the fourth time in five seasons, but it’s not impossible. Since he blossomed into an everyday player in 2016, Ramírez has posted a .285/.363/.531 slash line with nearly as many extra-base hits (392) as strikeouts (405).
What is it that makes Ramírez, who turns 29 today, so good?
Jose Ramírez bashes another baseball. (Ken Blaze / USA Today)
He lures pitchers into a spell.
Every opponent knows exactly what Ramírez wants to do: yank a fastball on the inner or middle of the plate. The problem, for the pitcher, is Ramírez won’t chase anything out of the zone, and he rarely swings-and-misses (94th percentile in whiff rate). Since Ramírez won’t bite, the hapless pitcher often submits to his demands.
Ramírez is pulling the ball far more than he ever has: 55.7 percent of the time; the league average is 36.6 percent. Defenses have shifted against him 96.4 percent of the time when he bats left-handed. (Imagine the numbers he could register if MLB ever restricts shifting.)
His patience and contact ability fuel impressive walk and strikeout rates. His strikeout rate (13.7 percent) ranks fifth in the AL. Among the top 20 hitters in the majors, by strikeout rate, Ramírez ranks second in walk rate, behind only Juan Soto.
Ramírez’s contact rate on pitches in the zone is elite (90.9 percent). His contact rate on pitches out of the zone is much higher than league average (71.3 percent).
Also, his BABIP (batting average on balls in play) of .243 — league average is .291 — suggests he’s endured rotten luck this season, and speaks to the frequent shifts he faces. Sure, he could make more of an effort to hit the ball to the opposite field and find holes in the infield defense, but that approach sent him sputtering in 2019.
What does this all mean? Ramírez can foul off pitches on the outside part of the plate and resist pitches out of the zone until the pitcher decides to throw something in his wheelhouse. And when the pitcher caves, Ramírez is usually ready to deliver an extra-base hit.
He doesn’t just slap singles around the field.
He’s diminutive, but strong, and he knows which pitches he can smack toward the outfield seats. Ramírez has hit 160 career home runs. Only two have gone to the opposite field. The rest have been pulled, with an occasional home run to center.
He’s not picky, either. Sure, he’d love to turn on a fastball and deposit it into the outfield seats, but his numbers against fastballs and off-speed pitches are pretty similar. Ramírez is hitting the ball harder than he ever has and doing so more often than he ever has.
Since the start of the 2016 season, no player in baseball has tallied more doubles than Ramírez (219). Only Nolan Arenado has recorded more extra-base hits in that span. Ramírez ranks second in the AL this season in extra-base-hit rate (nearly one every eight plate appearances).
He could be in line for his first Gold Glove Award.
FanGraphs credits Ramírez with 8 DRS (defensive runs saved) this season, which leads all AL third basemen. He is in the 93rd percentile in Statcast’s Outs Above Average metric, after ranking in the 9th percentile in 2020. He has historically fared well in that domain (89th percentile in 2019, 79th in 2018 and 94th in 2017).
Coaches point to him as an example of how to run the bases.
Jose Ramírez has 150 career stolen bases. (Ken Blaze / USA Today)
He’s far from the fastest player — he ranks 143rd in the majors in sprint speed — but he’s 23-for-26 in stolen base attempts this season. Ramírez, Ohtani and Fernando Tatis Jr. are the only players this season with 30 or more home runs and 20 or more steals.
Ramírez is the only player in the league with a 20/20 season in 2018, 2019 and 2021. (No one accomplished the feat in 2020, though Ramírez was on pace to eclipse both totals had the season been 162 games.) His base-running acumen factors into why his WAR is consistently high. FanGraphs rates him as the fourth-best base runner in the AL, just ahead of speedy teammate Myles Straw. Cleveland’s coaches implore young players to study how he runs the bases in an aggressive but smart manner, even if he’s lost his helmet a career-high 69 times this season. Unfortunately for Ramírez, helmet losses don’t factor into his MVP candidacy.
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