Emmanuel Clase’s sterling season as Cleveland Indians ace reliever, by the numbers
CLEVELAND, OH - AUGUST 08: Cleveland Indians pitcher Emmanuel Clase (48) delivers a pitch to the plate during the ninth inning of the Major League Baseball game between the Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Indians on August 8, 2021, at Progressive Field in Cleveland, OH. (Photo by Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
By Zack Meisel Sep 1, 2021 9
DeMarlo Hale doesn’t recall having to gear up to slug a 101 mph cutter when he played in the minors for the Red Sox and the Athletics in the 1980s. Cleveland’s acting manager said he first noticed the rise in relievers’ velocity when he served as the Blue Jays’ bench coach and they battled the Royals in the 2015 ALCS.
Kansas City trotted out its ace relief trio of Kelvin Herrera, Wade Davis and Greg Holland, who all possessed mid-90s heat.
“That’s the new norm,” Hale said.
Emmanuel Clase is a different breed, though. Cleveland’s closer unleashes a 101 mph heater that adeptly avoids the sweet spot on a hitter’s lumber and a 92 mph slider that fools any hitter brash enough to sit back and attempt to pounce on that triple-digit offering.
“He has stuff to really dominate that last inning,” said Hale, who praised Clase’s ability to remain calm on the mound, even when the opposing team threatens to erase Cleveland’s lead.
Clase, 23, served up a walk-off home run in Cleveland’s first game after the All-Star break. Since, he has rattled off 19 consecutive scoreless appearances, providing stability in the ninth inning as his high-leverage partner-in-crime, James Karinchak, searches for answers.
During that stretch, Clase — who is still, technically, a rookie, by the way — has limited opponents to a .109/.123/.125 slash line, with one walk and 21 strikeouts in 19 1/3 innings.
Overall, Clase’s ERA sits at 1.44 this season. Here are some other numbers that stand out and provide context for his sterling 2021 campaign.
370: The number of pitches Clase has thrown that have registered at least 100 mph
That’s the most in the league this season, exactly twice as many as the next pitcher on the list, Jacob deGrom. Those 370 triple-digit readings account for 43.6 percent of all of Clase’s pitches this season, which also leads the majors. Dodgers reliever Brusdar Graterol ranks second at 32.9 percent.
Only three pitchers — Cardinals reliever Jordan Hicks is the other — have thrown 100 mph heaters with at least one quarter of their pitches. Only eight pitchers have done so for at least 5 percent of their pitches.
.115: Hitters’ slugging percentage against Clase’s slider
Clase threw his slider about 20 percent of the time in April, May and June but has increased his reliance on the pitch over the past two months, a decision that seems to have paid dividends. He used his slider 38.5 percent of the time in July and 33.5 percent of the time in August.
Sure, his 101 mph cutter that gets up close and personal with left-handed hitters and tails away from righty hitters is effective on its own. But when hitters have to guard against a 92 mph slider that carries more vertical movement and plunges out of the strike zone, they might as well close their eyes and hope for the best.
Opponents are batting .098 with a .115 slugging percentage against Clase’s slider this season (and .238 with a .298 slugging percentage against the cutter). The cutter jams hitters and induces weak contact. The slider is more of a swing-and-miss pitch, and it produced a whiff rate of 44 percent the past two months. When he leans on both pitches, it can make them more imposing.
69.5 percent: Clase’s ground-ball rate
The league average is 45.1 percent. This explains how Clase has surrendered only two home runs this season. Hitters have topped his pitches 55 percent of the time they put the ball in play; the league average is 33.3 percent.
Simply put: It’s really, really difficult to square up that cutter. If it were a straight, 101 mph fastball, this might be a different conversation. But Clase ranks in the 97th percentile in hard-hit rate and the 98th percentile in opponents’ expected slugging percentage. Hitters don’t make solid contact against him. On the rare occasion they do, they’re fortunate if they record a single.
Instead, Clase racks up a ton of weak grounders and registers a little more than a strikeout per inning. He ranks in the 71st percentile in strikeout rate. He doesn’t boast the sort of eye-popping total one might expect for someone who possesses a pitch that is unrivaled throughout the league. But the ground-ball rate explains why that’s the case.
Clase still induces plenty of swings-and-misses, though. He ranks in the 91st percentile in whiff rate.
2: The number of walks Clase has issued over the past seven weeks
Clase has granted opponents two walks in his past 30 2/3 innings. We’ve established how difficult it is to make solid contact against Clase, so imagine how daunting it is to string together hits to produce a run against him. If Clase were consistently walking batters, he’d make that assignment much easier, but that hasn’t been the case.
99th percentile: Clase’s chase rate
Clase’s chase rate is 37.6 percent; the league average is 28.3 percent. Hitters don’t have much time to contemplate whether to offer at his pitches because they zip toward the plate at the speed of light. He throws the ball in the strike zone only 46.3 percent of the time, the result of only having pitches that don’t travel in a straight line.
If we dig even deeper, we find that his chase contact rate is 42.7 percent. In other words, when hitters fish for a cutter or slider out of the zone, they make contact with that pitch less than half of the time. The league-average chase contact rate is 58.5 percent. Clase has expertly convinced hitters to expand their zone, and they don’t typically do so to their benefit.
(Photo: Frank Jansky / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
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