Just-missed list: The MLB prospects right behind Keith Law’s 2021 Top 100


By Keith Law 2h ago 30
Every year that I produce a Top 100 ranking, I go through an iterative process where I start with more than 100 players, circulate the first cut to industry sources, move some guys around, take some names off the list and add other ones, circulate again, and so on. That process always means there are players who just missed the list – the decision to stop at 100 is rather arbitrary, just a function of us having 10 fingers and base-10 number system – and this year I’ve written up a few more. All of these players are very good prospects who shouldn’t be overlooked just because they missed the main list.

Gabriel Arias, SS, Cleveland
Arias is a plus defender at short, with a plus arm, and runs really well, but he still has to prove that he can hit to project as any sort of regular, even with the high bar provided by his defense. His plate discipline isn’t very good, and he’s been through multiple iterations of his swing already, even though he won’t turn 21 until late February. His age works in his favor in that it gives him more time to figure various things out, but scouts aren’t optimistic that his current swing and approach will work.

Corbin Martin, RHP, Arizona
Martin might have made the top 100 had he finished 2020 healthy, but an oblique strain ended his season a little early and cost him some innings that might have helped him handle more work in 2021. He was still working his way back from mid-2019 Tommy John surgery that came after he made five starts for the Astros, but before the surgery was sitting 95 with a plus slider and at least average curveball. He has to work more on developing his changeup and on fastball command, and I’d like to see where his stuff sits post-surgery when he’s working 5-6 innings at a clip.

Mick Abel, RHP, Philadelphia
The best high school pitcher in the 2020 draft class, Abel never got on a mound last spring before the pandemic arrived, but he did throw extremely well in fall instructs for the Phillies, including a well-attended matchup against the first high school pitcher taken in the 2019 draft, Quinn Priester. Abel has been up to 98 with a plus slider with good tilt, and is working on developing his curve and changeup. He’s also got a good pitcher’s build at 6-5, 190 pounds. We’ll see how he looks after some time in pro ball, facing real hitters, since the history of high school pitchers taken high in the draft – even ones who look as good as Abel – is not very promising.

Luis Medina, RHP, NY Yankees
Medina is a great athlete with an incredible arm and a delivery he should be able to repeat, but his problem has always been throwing strikes. I’ve seen him hit 99 in the same start where he couldn’t get out of the second inning because he was so wild, and he has two plus or better secondary pitches too. In 2018, he walked 46 batters and threw 12 wild pitches in 36 innings for short-season Pulaski. In 2019, he improved but still walked 70 guys with 27 wild pitches in 103.2 innings, hitting nine batters for good measure, although he looked like he might have turned a corner late in the season, walking only six guys in his last four starts, covering 22.2 innings, with only two wild pitches. And now we have a little more cause for optimism, as Medina was the pitcher of the year in the Puerto Rican Winter League after he made four starts for Mayaguez, throwing 16.2 innings, walking six batters and striking out 32, more than half of the batters he faced. Four starts here, four starts there, none of this is a big sample, but it’s better than he’s pitched anywhere else in pro ball, and if he can build on this and put together a full season, or even most of one, with this level of control, he’s a top 50 prospect at worst.

Shea Langeliers, C, Atlanta
Langeliers is a premium defensive catcher with some pop who never hit for much average while at Baylor or on the Cape, and then hit .255/.310/.343 after an aggressive post-draft assignment to full-season Rome. He looked good early in spring training before the shutdown and continued to impress with the bat at Atlanta’s alternate site, but we have to see this come through in games against real pitching before we can buy into it. He still has a high floor as a major-league backup and doesn’t have to hit that much to be a regular given his defense and 15-20 homer power.

Hudson Head, OF, Pittsburgh
I thought Head would end up making my top 100 before I started assembling the list, but he ended up just on the outside of it. Head has elite bat speed and has shown huge power in BP, although word from instructs was that his swing had started to go backwards, which would put a big dent in his projection. He’s still a center fielder, although he had hamstring trouble last year and didn’t always show the range he can have at the position. If his swing is back to where it was before the shutdown, he’s a good candidate to make the jump in 2021.

José Israel García, SS, Cincinnati
García had been a top 100 prospect off a solid season in High A, but was very, very clearly not ready for the majors last year, striking out in 38 percent of his 68 PA in the big leagues – he had twice as many strikeouts as hits – with just one walk. I don’t know how a debut that bad might affect García in the long term, but it did underscore that his hit tool is still a ways off. He’s a plus defender at short with good actions and a strong arm, and he projects to come into some power as he fills out, so as with Gabriel Arias, there’s the potential there for a good regular or more if he shows he can make enough quality contact.

Miguel Amaya, C, Chicago Cubs
Amaya has everyday upside, with plus power and a plus arm behind the plate, along with adequate receiving skills right now; he couldn’t crack the top 100 last year because of the poor choices he can make at the plate, often giving away at-bats and making weak contact on pitches he should take. Maybe that’s improved since last we saw him in High A Myrtle Beach, but – stop me if you’ve heard this one before – he needs to prove it against real competition.

Josh Jung, 3B, Texas
Jung is a perfect example of a prospect I do like despite his omission from the top 100. There are more than 100 prospects in the minors right now, and a player missing the main list could still be a good prospect and someone I’d want in my system if I were a GM or President of Baseball Operations or Lord of All the Beasts of the Earth and Fishes of the Seas or whatever the decision-makers are calling themselves these days. The Rangers have tried Jung at second base at their alternate site, and even had him fill in at short, but ultimately Jung’s value is going to come down to how much power he has, since it seems very likely he’s going to hit for average, and, once again, we need to see him show some thump in games since he didn’t in a brief run after signing in 2019.

Jordan Groshans, 3B, Toronto
Last year I wrote this about Groshans: “A full, healthy year in 2020 will help establish just how advanced his bat is and whether he has the power to be a star even in a corner.” Ah, well, it was a good thought, but because of the pandemic Groshans hasn’t taken an at-bat in an actual game since May 2019. Groshans did spend the summer at the Jays’ alternate site, facing a lot of pitchers who had appeared in the big leagues or were close to doing so, which is better than no experience but doesn’t give us much new information, such as whether he’s still rotating his hips early and cutting off some of his potential power. He does have a great swing path and has shown an ability to make some adjustments in the limited experience he has in pro ball. I’d just like to see him produce over a longer period against better pitching now.

Brett Baty, 1B/3B, NY Mets
Baty was a 19-year-old high school senior when the Mets took him in the first round in 2019, a big kid with an advanced bat who’d probably end up moving from third base to first base. The case for a 19-year-old high school position player revolves around his bat being so advanced that he could get to Double A by his age-21 season, which was the Mets’ belief (and mine, for that matter) on Baty. Sometimes that belief is wrong; I thought Blake Rutherford, the Yankees’ first-round pick in 2016, was that kind of guy, and he hasn’t produced at all, making a lot of weak contact in A ball and all but falling off prospect lists. Baty just lost his age 20 season to the pandemic, so now he’s 21 and has yet to take an at-bat in full-season ball, without the experience that 21-year-old college products have of playing in the SEC or ACC against better pitching. Baty might still be a star, but the road for him to get there is tougher now because of the lost year.

Cade Cavalli, RHP, Washington
The Nationals were the only team without a player on the top 100, and Cavalli, their first-round pick in 2020, was the closest. He’s very athletic, with four pitches and good control, including a power curveball and a potential wipeout slider, but he didn’t miss anywhere near as many bats as he should have in college, especially on his fastball, and he’s going to have to make some sort of adjustment – pitching away from it, using more two-seamers, locating it more to the corners – to get to be a mid-rotation starter.

Thanks for that rusty.

I've often heard it said on MLB Network that many times a ++ fielding shortstop develops his hitting skills later. Our own Omar Vizquel was a great example of this.

Ozzie Smith as well became a better hitter later on. Present day example of this is an Andrelton Simmons.

Harold Reynolds harps on this theme also - that we tend to see players as frozen in time. As if what we see now is what they will always be. Development happens!


So Arias already has what we love - great fielding at a premier defensive position. The Tribe obviously thinks they can develop his hitting. And #101 is a pretty high ranking really. There are, after all, 30 teams.

Lindor who not nearly the offensive threat he became when he was already lauded for his defensive skills and enthusiasm. I'll wait a year or two for Arias.

I'm expecting Tyler Freeman or Owen Miller to be the opening day 2nd basemen in 2022.
My new knowledge that Jones can't hit lefties has tempered my enthusiasm greatly.

BA posts their entire Top 30 for each team on line. I don't think they've put the whole list on line before; I always had to buy the prospect before.

here's Cleveland's List:

https://www.baseballamerica.com/teams/1 ... 021&type=P

Shortstops are listed as Nos. 3, 4, 7, 8, 12, 13, 19, 24, 28, 29, 30 [Gimenez, Freeman, Arias, Rocchio, G.Rod, Tucker, Miller, Clement, Valdes, Martinez, Chang]
Outfielders are No. 6 and No. 26 Valera and Greene [from the Mets]
An equivalent number of Logan Allens at Nos. 14 and 21 [Sr. ahead of Jr.]
Half as many catchers No. 5 Naylor's brother
And as many 3B No. 2 Jones
And as many 1B No. 22 Bradley
And as many 2b No. 11 [Bracho; no 11??]
And 3 more LHP not named Logan Allen: No. 17 [Cantillo] No. 20 [Moss] No. 23 Hentges
And RHP at Nos. 9, 10, 15, 16, 18, 25, 27 [Espino, Hankins, Clase, Burns, Vargas, Wolf, Torres]

Best Tools
Best Hitter for Average: Tyler Freeman
Best Power Hitter: Bobby Bradley
Best Strike-Zone Discipline: Ernie Clement
Fastest Baserunner: Quentin Holmes
Best Athlete: Will Benson
Best Fastball: Daniel Espino
Best Curveball: Triston McKenzie
Best Slider: Kyle Nelson
Best Changeup: Logan Allen
Best Control: Eli Morgan
Best Defensive Catcher: Bo Naylor
Best Defensive Infielder: Brayan Rocchio
Best Infield Arm: Gabriel Arias
Best Defensive Outfielder: Steven Kwan
Best Outfield Arm: Johnathan Rodriguez

MLB 2021 farm system rankings: Keith Law grades all 30 teams on prospects

Keith Law 3h ago 87
As part of my prospect rankings, I’ve also ranked all 30 major-league teams’ farm systems here, with a brief explanation of why they’re in this order — although I think you’ll get an even clearer picture on any individual team by reading the team reports that are rolling out this week (for the American League) and next week (for the National League). Bear in mind that these rankings only consider players currently in the system and eligible for the rankings, meaning they have not yet lost rookie status.

1. Tampa Bay
The Rays may have just won the AL pennant, but the process that got them to that point didn’t gut their farm system and they didn’t shift their draft philosophy to try to suit the needs of the big-league club. Their organization is still replete with high-ceiling talents, led by the best prospect in the minors in Wander Franco and the second coming of Babe Ruth in Randy Arozarena, but it’s the depth in prospects well beyond the eight guys they placed on my top 100 — no other team had more than six — that is most impressive. They have pitching depth, they have guys up the middle, especially at shortstop, and they even have some depth behind the plate, a chronic position of need since the Rays first came into existence 25 years ago. They’ve clicked on all three cylinders of the player development engine: They’ve drafted well, they’ve really improved their work on the international free agent market, and they’ve made several players better once they got into the system. The Rays’ model isn’t one we want to see more teams emulate — it doesn’t involve paying or retaining some of the team’s best players, as we saw this winter with the trade of Blake Snell — but it has worked consistently for Tampa Bay for the last 13 years.

2. Cleveland
Cleveland’s system was already on the ascent before the recent trades that sent Francisco Lindor, Carlos Carrasco, and Mike Clevinger away for prospects and young major leaguers, but those just added even more depth and potential upside to a system that already had both of those things in spades. They’ve drafted for upside, especially in the first round, for several years now, which has meant a lot of long-developing high school prospects who are now starting to bubble up into full-season ball enough where we can talk reasonably about their impacting the major-league team, complemented by ridiculous depth in shortstop prospects signed as international free agents. They’re far deeper in position players, mostly guys up the middle, than in pitching, where the pipeline that gave the major-league team guys like Clevinger, Shane Bieber, Zach Plesac and more is starting to dry up enough that they may need to refocus their efforts on adding arms in the next draft or two.


3. Toronto
The Blue Jays have boosted the talent in their system through all three avenues of player acquisition: They’ve drafted very well in the last two years, including landing the player I had at No. 1 on my board in 2020 in Austin Martin; they’ve found a slew of high-upside position players in international free agency; and they’ve done well acquiring prospects in trades, enough so that they’ve been able to flip the script and trade away some lower-tier guys in deals like the Taijuan Walker trade. The Jays placed six guys on my top 100, one on the just-missed list and have three or four more who would comfortably fit among the next 40 names.

4. Miami
This is by far the best Marlins system I’ve ever had the pleasure of ranking and detailing, and while that’s not saying much by historical standards, it’s also just an objectively great system, reflective of the new front office’s draft strategy and emphasis on blending R&D with traditional scouting. After everyone (myself included) excoriated them for dumping major leaguers like Giancarlo Stanton for too little in prospect capital, they’ve done far better in subsequent trades, adding Sixto Sánchez, Jazz Chisholm, Jesús Sánchez and Lewin Díaz in trades over the last two years. They’ve also re-entered the international free agent market, an area they’d eschewed under Jeffrey Loria’s reign, and started to find talent there for the first time in over a decade at least, although that will take longer to manifest on their org top 20 or at the major-league level. The Marlins have been a laughingstock — mostly due to their previous ownership’s craven approach — for a long time, but that’s about to end in a significant, on-field way.

5. Arizona
The Diamondbacks endured one of the worst GM tenures of the century, which resulted in a badly depleted farm system, less-than-productive drafts and a fiasco on the international free agent market because the GM didn’t understand the bonus rules, but current GM Mike Hazen turned things around in a hurry. Some extra picks in the draft helped, as did a few solid trades and heavier investment in the international market, as well as the establishment under Hazen of the club’s first proper R&D department. They’ve also gone after players they felt were undervalued in the draft — Corbin Carroll and Alek Thomas, both relatively undersized high school outfielders, both look like steals relative to where they were selected — and are developing players better than they have in franchise history.

6. Atlanta
The Atlanta system that was the envy of baseball a few years ago remains strong, but it’s starting to thin out due to a slew of promotions, some minor trades and their exile from the international free agent market, which starts to end this year. Their pipeline of pitching will hit a brief gap after this current wave, headlined by Ian Anderson, ends with promotions this year; the next potential starters beyond back-end guys after him and Tucker Davidson will probably spend 2021 in Low A. They do have some surplus talent in the outfield they could use for a trade, and it looks like they have their catcher of the future in Shea Langeliers, addressing a longtime organizational hole, but they’re banking on some development by some high-ceiling, lower-probability draft picks to keep the train rolling.


Tucker Davidson in 2020. (Adam Hagy / USA Today)
7. San Diego
The Padres no longer have the best system in baseball, thanks to several key promotions and the series of trades that built them a potential championship-caliber rotation, bringing in Blake Snell, Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove and the since-injured Mike Clevinger, as well as some relief and catching help. They’ve dealt 15 players who’d qualify as prospects this winter in those four trades as well as the Austin Nola-Austin Adams deal, all of which came in the last six months, and at least nine of those would have been on the Padres’ top 20. That the system is still in this kind of shape is a credit to the Padres’ drafting and international scouting efforts, as well as player development.

8. Minnesota
The Twins have managed to keep this system strong even as they’ve turned into the powerhouse of the AL Central in the last two years, because they haven’t really begun to dip into the strength of their farm for promotions or trades just yet. That is about to change with Alex Kirilloff ready for the majors, Jhoan Duran and Jordan Balazovic not far behind, and some depth among their outfield prospects that could help them in the trade market. Even with Royce Lewis developing more slowly than expected and less immediate results from their big international signings, the system remains fairly deep and has plenty of high-ceiling guys to help the Twins win on a moderate payroll, with more potential upside if guys like Lewis, Keoni Cavaco, Blayne Enlow or Emmanuel Rodríguez progress once games resume.

9. San Francisco
The Giants’ system is making a rapid comeback thanks to some high draft picks looking good out of the chute, a promising 2020 draft class where they spread their money out effectively over three picks after the first round, and an advancing group of position-player prospects led by shortstop Marco Luciano. The major-league team hasn’t seen much of the fruits of the system yet, other than Joey Bart, and that may not be true until at least 2022 given where these players are and the loss of the 2020 minor-league season, but if we get games this year this system is likely to jump into the top 5 — helped, naturally, by the fact that they’ll lose almost nobody to promotion to the majors, and by some of those high-ceiling hitters getting to play.

10. L.A. Dodgers
The top of the Dodgers’ system looks a little down relative to the last few years — there’s no Walker Buehler or Dustin May here, no Cody Bellinger or Gavin Lux, at least not yet — but it remains very deep, and the top echelon of prospects here includes some guys who could end up in that class a year from now, like pitcher Josiah Gray or catcher Diego Cartaya. As much as we talk about the Dodgers flexing their financial muscle, their successful draft strategy hasn’t revolved around money but good scouting and good player development after the fact. Buehler, May, Lux, Will Smith, now Michael Busch — these guys were all available to other teams, sometimes more than once. The Dodgers are a behemoth, not just rich, but well-run (and also rich).


Josiah Gray in 2020. (Joe Camporeale / USA Today)
11. St. Louis
The Cardinals just acquired Nolan Arenado without dealing anyone from their top 10, which I suppose you could argue is a sign of the depth of this system. The Cards went for huge ceiling in the 2020 draft, taking high-upside, high-risk athletes like Jordan Walker, Tink Hence and Masyn Winn, all of whom have pretty significant risk factors in their development but all of whom also have the tools to project as grade-60 or better regulars. They also continue to develop catching better than any other organization, allowing them to trade a Carson Kelly and perhaps to consider trading Andrew Knizner or Julio Rodriguez … which does make you wonder why neither of those latter two guys is with the Rockies right now.

12. Detroit
The Tigers’ system is better than it has been in some time, but it’s extremely top-heavy, with five prospects in my global top 50, four of whom were top-10 picks in their respective draft classes — and it’s to the Tigers’ credit that they appear to have hit on four of their last five first-round picks, at least. They haven’t had a success story on the international free-agent side in a while, and their draft record below the first round is weaker, with Tarik Skubal their best pick outside the first round since they took Spencer Turnbull (3.2 WAR) in the second round in 2014. What they need now to boost their rebuild is depth, especially on the position-player side, some of which could come from development of high-ceiling players already in the system, like Parker Meadows or Wenceel Perez, but some of which would need to come via trades. Getting Joey Wentz and Franklin Perez, both former top 100 prospects, healthy for 2021 would also help the overall system’s value by quite a bit.

13. Seattle
As with the Marlins, so with the Mariners: Their system is the best it’s been in at least a decade, with five guys on my top 100, the most they’ve ever had since I started compiling these lists. The biggest difference is that they’re keeping the prospects they acquire, and are dealing for prospects rather than trading them away, even targeting guys in other systems they think are undervalued or could benefit from their player development work. They’ve been hurt more than anything by the major-league team’s flirtations with relevance; they picked sixth in 2020, the first time they’ve picked in the top 10 since 2014 (when they took the since-traded Alex Jackson). There’s also some upside here, as they’ve been willing to take on more teenage talent in the search for ceiling.

14. N.Y. Yankees
The Yankees seem to develop velocity as well as any organization and have used it to great effect for their own system and for packaging unheralded prospects into bigger trades, while largely hanging on to their own high-dollar guys from the draft and the international market. Because they’ve drafted so low in recent years, their top 20 reflects more of the high-upside talent they’ve found internationally than draft products, although they do have a few recent draftees whose industry value might rise quickly once they get to play this year. They have some depth up the middle, especially at catcher, and even with trades like the Jameson Taillon deal they still have a lot of power arms.

15. Kansas City
The Royals’ investment in college pitching in the 2018-20 drafts is really paying off, as they’ve remade a system they’d all but strip-mined to win a World Series and another pennant in 2014-15. They’ve also added a handful of very high-ceiling position player prospects to the system in Bobby Witt Jr. and Erick Peña, both signed in 2019. The real test of the system will be how some of their players who struggled in 2019, like Nick Pratto, MJ Melendez or Khalil Lee, bounce back after a year focused just on development at the team’s alternate site.


Adalberto Mondesi beats Nick Pratto’s tag during 2020 workouts. (Denny Medley / USA Today Sports)


16. Pittsburgh
The Pirates were probably due for a change in approach on the minor-league side, as many things they’d tried just hadn’t worked out in practice, with first-round picks coming up short and a lot of pitchers getting hurt or just failing to develop, but the two big trades they made this winter have infused a lot of talent into the system, and their international side has brought in some very talented prospects who just haven’t gotten to play in the U.S. yet. I think this is a system on the rise for a variety of reasons, and some is just a function of bad luck turning around given enough time.

17. Cincinnati
The Reds’ system is holding serve, as the team didn’t dip into their prospect pool for trades or significant promotions in 2020 despite their run to the postseason, while continuing to add some high-ceiling talent in the last two drafts. The return of Hunter Greene from 2019 Tommy John surgery will be big for the Reds, as he’s far and away their best pitching prospect and best chance for someone who could pitch in the top two spots of a major-league rotation; below him, their depth is far greater on the position-player side, especially on the dirt and behind the plate.

18. Baltimore
The Orioles’ new leadership didn’t benefit from trading major-league players for prospects, as most rebuilding GMs do, so their progress has been slower than Baltimore fans might want, but so far they’ve done fairly well with high draft picks and talent already in the system — although I wasn’t a huge fan of how they spread their money out in the 2020 draft. There was no international scouting department to speak of before Mike Elias took over as GM, and their efforts in Latin America still haven’t paid off — the only player in their top 20 who didn’t enter pro baseball via the draft was Yusniel Díaz, signed as a free agent by the Dodgers. They’ve been picking up lesser-known prospects on the sly for a year or so now, and at some point you would expect their R&D-informed player development work to boost some of those players’ stock.

19. N.Y. Mets
The Mets would have had a top-10 system had they not traded away so many prospects in the last three years, although trading a couple of lottery-ticket teenagers for Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco is a lot easier to swallow than trading Jarred Kelenic for Robinson Canó and Edwin Díaz was. It’s still a decent system despite all of those departures thanks to some shrewd draft strategy and big-ticket international signings that all look good in the early going. Their pool of talent aged 20 and under is impressive, just from a scouting standpoint, although those players have little to no track records on the field so far.

20. Boston
The popular refrain that Boston’s system is bad isn’t really fair or accurate; they have a lot of guys who project to major-league value, and they have a lot of guys with some ceiling who need to get out and play, whether it’s coming back from injury (Jason Groome) or trying to show a real change in skill (Chris Murphy, Matthew Lugo) or just needing to get off the ship and onto a field (Noah Song). Drafting low in the first round for several years, occasionally going without a first-round pick at all, and then going way off the radar in the 2020 draft did not help matters, however.


Noah Song in 2018. (Billie Weiss / Boston Red Sox / Getty Images)
21. Colorado
A hypothesis: The Rockies’ system is chronically underrated, including by folks like me, for two structural reasons. One is that, at least under the previous system, most of their teams played in extreme hitters’ environments that skewed reports and stats for pitchers and created skepticism around position players. The other is that they present fewer opportunities for scouts to see their players. They were, at least until now, the only team in baseball without a short-season team at their complex, and they have generally been reticent to share information with scouts during minor-league spring training games or instructional league. That said, there are a lot of good athletes in this system, but a lot of prove-it guys too — players who had some significant question about their game in the draft, or in international free agency, or just in pro ball in general, that will only be answered with games. Yes, I am saying that a lot this year, and no, I’m not bothered by it. We are operating with less information than ever.

22. Chicago White Sox
The White Sox have graduated or traded a lot of talent but still have four guys atop their system who will have major-league value in 2021-22, and now they have some high-ceiling arms below that as they opened up their draft approach a little in 2019. The system’s problem now, as ever, is a lack of depth, especially up the middle, although their international scouting group has been adding more players to the system than they have in quite some time.

23. L.A. Angels
If we were just ranking systems by tools, somehow adding up those grades or averaging them or however you might measure an entire organization’s toolsiness, the Angels would be in the top half, maybe the top 10. They love athletes, targeting them in the draft and on the international market, but developing those guys when their baseball skill level starts out low is a huge challenge for any organization. They also have tried to develop some of those athletes as two-way players, and I’m not sure that does anything except create prospects who are OK at both and great at neither.

24. Texas
Talk about a system that needs to get healthy. The Rangers had a terrible run of injuries in 2019, including four top 20ish prospects going down with Tommy John surgery and Anderson Tejeda needing shoulder surgery. Their luck hasn’t really turned around yet, as their breakout pitcher from the back fields in 2020, Ricky Vanasco, also blew out his elbow. I like what they’ve done in their recent trades, acquiring far-off or just less-known prospects in the Lance Lynn, Rafael Montero and Elvis Andrus-Khris Davis deals.


Rangers second baseman Anderson Tejeda in a 2020 game. (Troy Taormina / USA Today)
25. Houston
Trades, lower draft picks and the gutting of the Astros’ pro and amateur scouting departments have really put a dent in what was once a stacked system. Some big player development successes and aggressive moves on the international free agent front give the Astros some long-term potential, and their 2020 draft leaned back toward upside and away from low-ceiling performers.

26. Chicago Cubs
The Cubs have tightened the purse strings at the major-league level, but their farm system isn’t up to the task of backfilling the major-league roster just yet, and the organization is really short on potential stars after Brennen Davis, which is what they’ll need to build another contender now that the 2016 core is splitting up and ownership isn’t spending.

27. Philadelphia
The Phillies’ trouble in the draft is well documented; while the whiff when picking first overall in 2016 is the most famous example, their low ROI on high draft picks goes beyond just that pick and that year, from Cornelius Randolph to Kevin Gowdy to Cole Stobbe to Adam Haseley. They’ve also had a lot of trouble developing hitters, with a lot of swing tinkering that hasn’t produced any results and in some cases may have set those players back. Their international free agent scouts continue to find talent, often at lower dollar figures, and their 2019-20 drafts, under new scouting director Brian Barber, look more promising out of the chute than did the drafts the previous four years.

28. Milwaukee
The Brewers’ system has been crushed by trades, low draft picks and a lot of high-round picks that just haven’t worked out (Corey Ray, Lucas Erceg, Tristen Lutz). After several years out of the high-end international free agent market, they’ve started to invest there again, with a big class in 2019, but of course we haven’t seen any of those players play yet. They could have an impact on this system the way the Giants’ big international class in 2018 is having on San Francisco’s farm system.

29. Oakland
Terrible luck with pitcher health and limited production on the international front have both really hurt the A’s system, which is generally shallow but especially so on the mound, while they’ve also been held back by some top-10 overall picks that haven’t worked out, from Austin Beck to Kyler Murray (the latter not their fault).


Kyler Murray in 2018. (Jeff Chiu/ Associated Press)
30. Washington
The Nats won the World Series in 2019, and as is often the case with teams that do so, they spent a lot of their prospect capital to get there. They’ve traded prospects, drafted lower in the first round and given up some picks for free agents. Their international scouting department has been very aggressive under the new system, however, and the Nats’ system could look a whole lot better in a year if all of their teenage Latin American prospects get a chance to play and show us if their abilities line up with their tools.

No. 2 is pretty impressive; we were only in the middle of the pack on last year's ratings but everyone noted they were likely to rise. Since the kids didn't get to improve during the "gap year" the only changes are new trade pickups and another good draft.

BA has it's ratings posted too but hadn't opened yet. Let's see if they agree; I really don't expect this high.

NO. 10 on that list. We don't have that much yet in the top 50 to 100. I still think Valera and Rocchio and Bracho and Espino and Naylor and maybe Hankins will have shots to make the 100 by this time next year, assuming that get a chance to play this somewhere.


10
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Cleveland Indians
Notes:
2020: 19 | 2019: 16 | 2018: 21 | 2017: 18 | 2016: 17 | 2015: 23 | 2014: 17


Top 100 prospects (4): RHP Triston McKenzie (26), 3B Nolan Jones (45), SS/2B Andres Gimenez (66), SS Tyler Freeman (82)


The Skinny: Cleveland’s ability to target amateur pitchers with plus command and improve their stuff to match the command has paid off handsomely. But the ability of Cleveland’s close-to-the-majors bats to step up will be vital to the team’s attempts to remain in contention in the post-Francisco Lindor era.

in the AL Central, BA taps Detroit 4, Twins 8, KC 14 and the Sox 21

As noted BA rates Cleveland's system No. 10.. And furthermore, does not list as one of the 6 featured today as likely to rise significantly.

Cleveland’s 2021 prospect rankings: Keith Law on the team’s top 20


By Keith Law Feb 12, 2021 16
Cleveland’s system is loaded with position-player talent, mostly up the middle (including enough shortstops to field an entire team of only shortstops, which would be some sort of record), as well as some intriguing power bats on the corners, but their pipeline of pitching is about to hit a dry patch, as after Triston McKenzie they probably don’t have another starter prospect above A-ball for this year.

To be eligible for these rankings, a player must still be eligible for the Rookie of the Year award in 2021, which means he may not have more than 130 at-bats, 50 innings pitched or 45 days on an active roster heading into this season.

1. Triston McKenzie, RHP (Top 100 rank: No. 12)

From the Top 100: McKenzie was absolutely electric in his major-league debut in August, showing exceptional command of the best stuff he’d ever shown, but his velocity tapered off in subsequent starts and Cleveland eventually began to limit his workload after one outing where his average fastball velo dipped from 93-97 mph in that first game to an average of 90.7 mph. McKenzie gets great extension out over his front side, peaking at 7.4 feet in 2020, giving hitters less time to react and improving his deception, all of which allows him to succeed even if he isn’t sitting at the velocity he showed in his first outing. His changeup doesn’t have much action, and it was better in that first outing when his velocity was up and he could get more separation between the change and the fastball; after that, his slider was his best weapon, with a 20 percent whiff rate on the year, thanks again to how far he extends out front. The entire question about McKenzie’s future revolves around his durability. While I don’t believe his MLB.com listing at 6-foot-5, 165 pounds, he is not and never will be a big guy, given his narrow frame and a metabolism so fast it could do the Kessel run in under 12 parsecs. Maybe he’s a Blake Snell type of starter, limited to 5-6 innings per outing but incredibly effective when he pitches; but I’ll hold out some hope that he eventually fills out and becomes durable enough to pitch at the top of a rotation.

2. Bo Naylor, C (Top 100 rank: No. 42)

From the Top 100: Naylor continues to make great progress behind the plate, to the point now where he’s not just likely to stay there but has a chance to end up a plus defender with the glove and arm, a testament to his athleticism and his work ethic. Naylor was the 29th overall pick in 2018, following in the footsteps of his brother and fellow first-round pick Josh, but was more of an infielder who’d tried catching rather than a polished backstop — and maybe that’s good, considering the poor track record of high school catchers who were drafted in the first round. He’s an above-average runner with good bat speed, making contact at a rate above league average in Low A in 2019, even though he was young for the level at 19 years old. His results on balls in play were just fair, however, with more power but a lower BABIP than I would have forecast. He’s going to catch, and there’s a lot of untapped potential in the bat, enough that he could leap into the top echelon of prospects with a strong year at the plate in High A or Double A in 2021.

3. George Valera, OF (Top 100 rank: No. 76)

From the Top 100: Valera missed most of 2018 with a broken hamate bone in his hand and didn’t seem completely recovered when he returned to play the following summer, although he was also very young for the New York-Penn League (may it rest in peace) and still showed great promise in the power department. Valera was healthy for all of 2020 and even came to Cleveland’s alternate site as a 19-year-old, then showed off in instructional league with a beautiful swing that produced hard contact and plus-plus power. He can really hit a fastball already but tends to chase stuff out of the zone too often, something that may improve as he’s facing more pitchers who are around the plate and he gets more pitches he can square up. On defense, he’s adequate in a corner, but could get to above-average with the right instruction. He’s a flashy player, but that’s great if you can bring it, which Valera certainly can, with 30-homer upside and the potential to hit for a high average even if he continues to swing and miss.

4. Tyler Freeman, SS (Top 100 rank: No. 78)

From the Top 100: Freeman has filled out some more since we last saw him in games, which does help address one of the biggest concerns about him as a hitter — whether he’d be strong enough to keep hitting the ball hard and thus hold up his consistently strong batting averages. Freeman rarely strikes out, with just 87 strikeouts so far in 997 pro plate appearances, and is a solid-average to tick above-average runner who plays a competent shortstop but will probably end up at second base, especially in a system with so many superior defenders at short. Everything Freeman does plays up because he shows such good instincts and feel for the game, earning the dreaded “ballplayer” tag from scouts and coaches (as if the other kids on the field are not also ballplayers, which would create a substantial ontological dilemma for those of us who evaluate the sport for a living). I don’t think this swing is going to generate power, but he looks like he’ll hit .300+ consistently with solid OBPs, average defense at short or plus defense at second, and a little added value on the bases as well.

5. Nolan Jones, 3B (Top 100 rank: No. 86)

From the Top 100: Jones looks like a good three true outcomes hitter in the making, running deep counts already with high walk totals (96 in 2019), showing some power now but with much more projected now that he’s 22 and filling out physically. He doesn’t show much of a two-strike approach, keeping the same swing even when behind in the count, relying more on his strong ball/strike recognition to allow him to get to something he thinks he can drive. Jones’ main concern is that he doesn’t hit left-handed pitching at all; across 2018 and 2019, he had 250 PA against lefties, and hit just .167/.316/.286 with a 36 percent strikeout rate. That can improve, but it hasn’t yet, and he was worse in 2019 than 2018. He’s the kind of player who will probably be more hurt by the lost year in 2020, because this will only get better with more repetitions against the very pitchers he can’t hit. There’s also some concern that he won’t stay at third base, potentially ending up in right field, although that’s likely to be more driven by who’s ahead of him (e.g., José Ramírez) than by his defense, as he can play a capable hot corner already. At third base, with the 25-homer power I expect from him and high walk totals, he’d be an above-average regular — but he has to start to hit lefties in the next year or two to keep that ceiling in play.

6. Brayan Rocchio, SS (Top 100 rank: No. 99)

From the Top 100: Rocchio is on the smaller side, but he does just about everything well and gets some comparisons to Francisco Lindor, although Lindor was a more polished hitter at 20 than Rocchio is. Rocchio has a very good eye at the plate and above-average speed on the bases, giving him a good chance to stay at shortstop in the long term. He’s a switch-hitter, with a slightly better swing from the left side, staying back on the ball more than he does when hitting right-handed, although both swings are very direct to the ball. He just may hit for some power left-handed because he rotates more and transfers his weight more with contact. Rocchio was unable to come from his native Venezuela to the U.S. in 2020 due to the pandemic, so unfortunately he’s missed even more time than most prospects, so he may be a year behind some of his short-season teammates from last year, but he still above-average or better upside as a high-OBP shortstop who might get to 15 homers or more.

7. Gabriel Arias, SS (Just Missed)

From the Just Missed: Arias is a plus defender at short, with a plus arm, and runs really well, but he still has to prove that he can hit to project as any sort of regular, even with the high bar provided by his defense. His plate discipline isn’t very good, and he’s been through multiple iterations of his swing already, even though he won’t turn 21 until late February. His age works in his favor in that it gives him more time to figure various things out, but scouts aren’t optimistic that his current swing and approach will work.

8. Lenny Torres, RHP

Torres missed 2019 after Tommy John surgery but has been electric in his return, and among Cleveland’s low-minors pitching prospects he has the best delivery and best chance to start. He’s worked in the mid-90s with enough feel for a curveball and changeup to think both can become above-average pitches once he gets more experience.

9. Daniel Espino, RHP

Espino was Cleveland’s first-rounder in 2019 and has shown electric stuff, up to 99 mph with two potentially plus secondary pitches, when he’s been healthy. He missed instructs this fall with a sore shoulder, and his delivery has a lot of effort to it, enough that many scouts felt he couldn’t hold up as a starter over the long term.

10. Ethan Hankins, RHP

Hankins was the team’s first-rounder in 2018, and he had a sore shoulder that spring, also a possible consequence of a delivery issue — in this case, a short stride, which also hurts Hankins’ breaking ball. He’s worked on his conditioning during the shutdown and can still show premium velocity, with a better curveball than he had in high school, but he has to show health and improved command in 2021.

11. Jose Tena, SS

Tena has electric bat speed and so far has produced enough quality contact to keep his averages over .300 in complex ball even though he strikes out a little more than you’d like. He’s a plus-plus athlete and 60 runner with great actions for a shortstop, lacking only the arm you want at that position.

12. Aaron Bracho, 2B

Bracho can hit, maybe really hit, and the only real question is whether that will also lead to enough power to make him a regular — maybe an above-average one — at second base. He started at shortstop but was never going to stay there, and the surfeit of shortstops in this system just made him move to the other side of the bag that much sooner. I buy this bat, though, and even though he’s a little undersized, he’s strong for his height and may surprise us all in a few years with his homer totals.

13. Angel Martinez, SS

Martinez has passed some of the other shortstop prospects in Cleveland’s low minors because he’s more physically ready and has a more advanced approach at the plate. Martinez is a switch-hitter with a contact-oriented swing, not getting to power because he opens his front hip so early, and has shown good ball/strike recognition at a very young age. He’s a more instinctive shortstop than a flashy or athletic one, like former Cleveland prospect Willi Castro, and could end up at second base.

14. Gabriel Rodriguez, SS

Rodriguez got a club-record $2.1 million as an international free agent in 2018, in large part because of his promise at the plate. He has a really good swing with strong hands and bat control, although he glides out over his front side a little bit, which could cut into his power. He’s still playing shortstop even though he’s put on about 15 pounds of good weight since signing; other players in this system could push him to second or third over time.

15. Tanner Burns, RHP

Burns was Cleveland’s second overall pick in 2020, going in the supplemental round, after two years as Auburn’s Friday night starter, where he was up to 97 mph with a solid-average slider and changeup as well as average control. If he holds up — he had some minor shoulder soreness in college, and he’s a 6-foot right-hander with some effort — he’s a possible fourth starter.

16. Carson Tucker, SS

Cleveland’s first-rounder in 2020 was a reach for me, as it took Carson Tucker, younger brother of Pirates outfielder Cole, both strong makeup guys with baseball intelligence ahead of their tools. Carson is a steady defender at short who might work his way to average at the position, while at the plate he shows quick hands and a slashing stroke that should lead to contact without power. He might be a soft regular at short but has to make higher-quality contact to be a regular elsewhere.

17. Owen Miller, SS

Miller came to Cleveland in the giant trade that sent Mike Clevinger to San Diego. He’s a high-floor infield prospect, a potential regular at second base given his strong contact rates, with a good chance he’s a quality utility infielder who can play shortstop on a temporary basis. If he finds a way to get to some power, he could become more.

18. Isaiah Greene, OF

Greene was one of the two prospects Cleveland received in return for Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco, just a few months after the Mets took him in the second round of the 2020 draft. He’s a plus runner and potential plus defender in center, showing very quick hands at the plate and comfort hitting against much older pitchers in instructs this past fall. He has yet to play anywhere in pro ball but has upside beyond the typical second-round pick.

19. Junior Sanquintin, SS/3B

Sanquintin has played all over the infield for Cleveland, probably settling in at third base or maybe second. He was more physically developed than some of the other international signees who came over at the same time and looks like he’s got more growth ahead of him, with a swing that should lead to above-average power down the road.

20. Carlos Vargas, RHP

Cleveland added Vargas to its 40-man this winter, as he’s been up to 98 mph and can show a plus slider. He looks like he should have better command than he does and needs a better third pitch to start.

Others of note
Hunter Gaddis was a sinker/slider guy out of college but can show four pitches now, sitting 93-94 mph with a four-seamer, and has a chance to be a back-end starter. … Josh Wolf came with Greene in the Lindor trade; he’s a projectable high school right-hander with good arm speed and sound delivery, needing to work on secondary stuff, command and the other elements of pitching. … Bobby Bradley will turn 25 in May and might get one more shot in Cleveland to prove he can make enough contact to get to his power. He struck out in over a third of his PA between Triple A and the majors in 2019, and didn’t get a call-up in 2020. … Lefty Sam Hentges should get some starts for Cleveland in 2021; he’s huge, up to 95 mph, with some depth on a curveball, but he didn’t come close to average command in Double A. … Outfielder Daniel Johnson got a cup of coffee last season, with 12 PA, all against right-handed pitchers; he could be a platoon outfielder or extra guy, with interesting power/speed from the left side but not enough pitch recognition to get to everyday status. … Right-hander Emmanuel Clase, acquired in the Corey Kluber trade, missed all of 2020 due to a suspension for a positive PED test result; he was up to 101 mph with cutting action and had a slider up to 90 mph when we last saw him in 2019. … Lefty Joey Cantillo was part of the Clevinger deal; he gets great deception from a funky delivery and has a plus changeup, but may not be able to turn a lineup over multiple times without more velocity or a better breaking ball. … Logan Allen The Younger was a safe, low-ceiling college pick, a lefty with three average pitches who missed a lot of bats and rarely walked guys in three years at FIU. … Petey Halpin was their third-round pick in 2020, a center fielder who got bigger and stronger before his senior spring, adding to his potential power but possibly at the cost of staying in center. His swing is handsy, and he doesn’t have the loft or the strong front side he’ll need to get to that power. … Milan Tolentino was the fourth-rounder last year, a solid shortstop with poor bat control and a long swing.

2021 impact
McKenzie should start 2021 in the big-league rotation, and Clase in the bullpen. Cleveland doesn’t have an incumbent at first base, so perhaps Bobby Bradley will get a chance to win that job.

Sleeper
Tena was my pick last year. A healthy Torres makes that leap, too.

He definitely puts Torres up higher than everyone else
He doesn't include the upper level lefties, Logan Allen Sr. or Scott Moss

Two guys who are rated by the pros and the amateurs:

Naylor who scores really high on his last and BA.
Planez who is a big hit among the latter and is nowhere on these lists.

No one puts Johnson or Bradley very high, I don't think we should expect much from either.
No one puts the 2019 top of the draft SS's Y Valdes and Cairo's son anywhere on their lists.

So this year's spring training comes with players in 3 categories; there's the standard 40 man roster; then there are the non roster invitees; and then another batch of guys bring the total in camp up to the max allowed at one time of 75 They are sort of like the "alternate site" crew of last summer. The Indians don't list them on their official website but they do list the following kids who were invited to camp yesterday, and who make up Group 3:
The only among these who are on the top prospect lists are Rocchio, Valera and Cantillo. [Rocchio never made it out of Venezuela last summer so good see he's expected this time]


02/13/21 SS Richard Palacios assigned to Cleveland Indians .
02/13/21 P Nick Mikolajchak assigned to Cleveland Indians .
02/13/21 P Adam Scott assigned to Cleveland Indians .
02/13/21 2B Tyler Krieger assigned to Cleveland Indians .
02/13/21 P Cody Morris assigned to Cleveland Indians .
02/13/21 P Robert Broom assigned to Cleveland Indians .
02/13/21 C Yainer Diaz assigned to Cleveland Indians .
02/13/21 P Kirk McCarty assigned to Cleveland Indians .
02/13/21 P Joey Cantillo assigned to Cleveland Indians .
02/13/21 C Bryan Lavastida assigned to Cleveland Indians .
02/13/21 C Andres Melendez assigned to Cleveland Indians .
02/13/21 SS Jose Fermin assigned to Cleveland Indians .
02/13/21 RF Connor Marabell assigned to Cleveland Indians .
02/13/21 CF Alex Call assigned to Cleveland Indians .
02/13/21 OF George Valera assigned to Cleveland Indians .
02/13/21 OF Steven Kwan assigned to Cleveland Indians .
02/13/21 RF Will Benson assigned to Cleveland Indians .
02/13/21 SS Brayan Rocchio assigned to Cleveland Indians .

Since they will be available as major league roster additions once the season starts they are generally AA and AAA guys including some pretty unimpressive OFs in Marabell and Call. Notably not present are some of the better looking young guys like Bracho Espino Torres and Hankins.

Mikolajchak could be interesting to keep an eye on. Hard throwing reliever; has not yet pitched in full season; they must like him as a possible quick ascending reliever.