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by rusty2
Top 100 MLB prospects for 2021: Keith Law’s rankings are here, with Wander Franco at No. 1
Keith Law 4h ago 214
Welcome to this year’s ranking of the top 100 prospects in baseball. I’ve been compiling and writing such rankings for 14 years now, and those of you who’ve read them before will find the format here similar to those from the recent past. Today kicks off the prospect package with that top 100. My organization rankings, farm reports covering at least 20 prospects in each team’s system, and notes on prospects who might appear in the majors this year or who might be breakout prospects for the 2021 rankings will all appear in February.
I see as many players as I can in person each year, but 2020 had other ideas, so the process that went into this ranking was quite different this offseason. I’ve had to rely more than ever on notes from team executives, mostly in player development, about what they saw from their own prospects, since there was no scouting at all at alternate sites, limited scouting in fall instructional leagues (in which only some teams participated), and no data of any sort to guide us on player changes. I have seen some video of players from those environments, but there’s simply no substitute for players playing real games against opponents who are also trying to win, and the observations scouts and I can make while watching them.
I tend to favor upside in prospects more than certainty, but there is value in both. A player who is all ceiling and no floor isn’t as valuable, in the trade market now or in considering his expected value in the long term, as one who has a somewhat lower ceiling but a much higher floor. I want players who might be stars, and after that I want players who might be above-average big leaguers — but I also try to keep in mind that many of these prospects won’t reach their ceilings, and to consider what other scenarios exist for their futures.
I refer to grades throughout the prospect rankings on the 20-80 scouting scale, where 50 is major-league average, 80 is the highest possible score, and 20 is the lowest. I’ll also use similar language, referring to tools that are above (a grade of 55) or below average (45 or less), or referring to plus (60) or even plus-plus (70), or maybe you should try another line of work (35). I try to discuss players’ tools, their frames, their level of athleticism and other physical attributes, as well as their skills, their aptitude, and other mental attributes as well. This is comparable to how major-league teams evaluate players, although they will always have the advantage of access to more and better data than those of us on the outside can get. The least I can do for you is try to reflect how the industry thinks about players, and give you the most accurate possible picture of the prospects in these rankings through both the lens of my own evaluations and those of the people within the industry whom I most trust.
To be eligible for these rankings, a player must still be eligible for the Rookie of the Year award in 2021, which means they may not have more than 130 at-bats, 50 innings pitched, or 45 days on an active roster heading into this season. Days on the roster in September 2020 do count against the rookie threshold, whereas days on the active roster in any previous September do not count, a change MLB made to the rookie eligibility rules just for last season. Thus new Cleveland shortstop Andrés Giménez, who played a full season for the Mets in 2020 and spent 65 days on the Mets’ active roster, is no longer a rookie and thus ineligible for these rankings. I also exclude players who have come here as free agents from Japan’s NPB or Korea’s KBO, because while they are rookies (and I would vote for them if I have a Rookie of the Year ballot), they are not prospects by my definition.
Finally, please bear in mind that the pandemic has changed so much about our world, and caused me to reevaluate many things in my life, but it has not changed my feelings about your favorite team. I still hate them.
Note: All ages are seasonal ages, which refers to a player’s age at the midpoint of the year, so July 1, 2021.
1. Wander Franco, SS, Tampa Bay, Age (as of 7/1/21): 20
Franco nearly showed up in the majors during the Rays’ run to the World Series, traveling with the team in October, and then played five games in his native Dominican Republic before a biceps injury ended his winter. He retains the top spot on this list as he approaches his 20th birthday this March 1, but I’d bet he loses it this year by spending a good chunk of 2021 in the majors, because he wasn’t that far off even when 2019 ended. Franco has ridiculous hand speed and one of the best batting eyes in professional baseball, rarely striking out and making consistent, hard contact even as a teenager, with the projection of above-average power as he matures. He hit a combined .327/.398/.487 as an 18-year-old in Low A and High A in 2019, while striking out just 7 percent of the time. Franco is a shortstop now and has the hands, actions and arm to stay there, although he could move to second or third if he loses any foot speed as he gets into his 20s. He’s going to play a skill position regardless, and his bat will make him a star at any of those spots, with high averages and OBPs early while the power develops, boasting the ceiling of an MVP candidate at his peak.
2. MacKenzie Gore, LHP, San Diego, Age: 22
Gore was the top pitching prospect in the game last winter and spent the summer and fall at the Padres’ alternate site, so he retains his rookie eligibility into 2021. Gore has everything you’d want in a potential No. 1 starter, with four above-average pitches that can all show plus, tremendous athleticism, and deception from the extreme high leg kick in his delivery. He’s regularly up to 97, with a big-breaking power curveball, a plus changeup with deception and good fading action, and an upper 80s slider he added after getting into pro ball and that’s become another swing-and-miss weapon for him. His delivery is difficult to repeat, but he’s such a good athlete that he’s able to do so, even with a leg kick that would knock most pitchers over. The Padres might have used Gore down the stretch last year, cycling through a number of starters for their fifth spot before trading for the now-injured Mike Clevinger, but Gore had some timing issues in his delivery at the alternate site, affecting his command enough that the team felt it was better to let him work it out before bringing him up. Stuff this good, with the performance Gore showed in 2019, doesn’t come along very often. If he stays healthy he’ll be one of the best left-handed starters in baseball within a few years.
3. Cristian Pache, OF, Atlanta, Age: 22
Pache is an 80 defender in center who draws comparisons to Andruw Jones, and not just because of the Atlanta connection. He’s a plus runner with plus raw power who didn’t homer at all until his third year in pro ball, seeing his power increase in the last two seasons toward an ultimate projection of 20-25 homers a year. His reads and range are at the top end of the scale, and he has a huge arm to go along with the glove. All that remains for Pache beyond further physical maturation is working on his approach at the plate, where he’s been very aggressive, making plenty of contact but limiting his OBP and not always waiting for a pitch he can drive. That defense alone will give him a very long career in the majors, but a 25-homer/25-steal center fielder with top-of-the-line defense and even a .330 OBP is a star.
4. Jarred Kelenic, OF, Seattle, Age: 21
Kelenic was the sixth overall pick in 2018, and if anything that seems too low in hindsight, even though four of the five guys taken ahead of him have already reached the majors. Kelenic is a true five-tool player, grading out above average in his hit, power, glove, arm and run tools, projecting to stay in center field but with the arm for right if he ever has to move there (e.g., with Kyle Lewis in center). He played in three levels in 2019 as a 19-year-old and continued to hit up through Double A, showing more discipline than expected for a cold-weather high school kid. His power should get him to 25-30 homers, with 20+ steals and strong OBPs. He probably would have debuted in 2020 had there been a full minor-league season, and I expect he’ll be up by the middle of 2021. I know it pains Mets fans to read this, but I think Kelenic is going to be a superstar.
5. Nate Pearson, RHP, Toronto, Age: 24
Pearson’s debut in the majors was tantalizing, but as with his first full pro season in 2018, it was interrupted by injury, leaving him still eligible for these rankings. Pearson averaged 96.3 mph on his four-seamer, showed a full four-pitch mix, all three of which at least missed bats, although he leaned most on his slider and the pitch wasn’t as consistent as it has been in the past. He’s 6 feet 6 inches and 250 pounds, with a good delivery that he has learned to repeat since the Jays signed him, so in theory he should be durable. Still, he had several fluky injuries in 2018 that limited him to one inning, and a flexor strain sent him to the injured list in late August, after which the Jays used him for just a single relief appearance. If he can stay healthy, there are very few starting pitching prospects who can match his stuff and size, which give him the ceiling of a No. 1 starter.
6. Adley Rutschman, C, Baltimore, Age: 23
The Orioles took Rutschman with the first overall pick in 2019, and he probably would be on the cusp of the majors if it weren’t for the pandemic. A switch-hitting catcher with power and incredible patience at the plate, Rutschman is also an advanced defensive catcher who earns raves for his work with pitchers and shows a plus arm, nailing 7 of 11 runners in pro ball after he signed. His right-handed swing can get long, but his left-handed swing is more compact, and he should be able to hit for both contact and power. If he hits for enough average, he’s going to be a frequent MVP candidate, and his power/defense combo gives him a floor as a solid regular.
7. Alex Kirilloff, OF, Minnesota, Age: 23
Kirilloff is now on the very short list of players who made their major-league debuts in the postseason, also known as the Mark Kiger All-Stars, but unlike Kiger, Kirilloff will be back. He’s among the very best hitting prospects in baseball, thanks to a beautiful left-handed swing, an advanced approach to the strike zone, and all-fields power. Kirilloff was a pitcher and outfielder in high school and missed the 2017 season while recovering from Tommy John surgery, but he returned without a trace of rust and has continued to make hard contact at a high rate. His power was down in 2019 after he injured his wrist that spring, so look for a big power spike from him in 2021, whether he does so in Triple A or in the majors.
8. CJ Abrams, SS, San Diego, Age: 20
Abrams, the sixth overall pick in the 2019 draft out of a Georgia high school, rose significantly in the industry’s eyes after his strong pro debut that year, and reports from this past summer and fall have been even more glowing because he’s showing more power than expected at this young age. Abrams is an 80 runner with great bat speed and a direct, contact-oriented swing, but as he’s gotten stronger he’s now driving the ball with more authority and showing bigger exit velocities as a result. While the presence of Fernando Tatis Jr. might lead to a position change, Abrams is a no-doubt shortstop with a quick release and good actions; he could play center, or he could be a Gold Glove-caliber defender at second. He’s a star at any position, and if the Padres ever do have to move Tatis because he outgrows shortstop, they have a replacement on the way.
9. Dylan Carlson, OF, St. Louis, Age: 22
Carlson was the talk of spring training last March, with much debate over whether he should make the Cardinals’ Opening Day roster, but the shutdown put the kibosh on that idea and delayed Carlson’s major-league debut until mid-August. He’s a very disciplined hitter for his age and struggled in the majors in part because he was too patient, falling behind in the count more often than he’d get ahead, taking a more passive approach than he had in the minors. St. Louis sent him back to their alternate site for two weeks in September, and he returned for his best stretch of the short season with more damage in hitters’ or even counts, albeit in a tiny sample. Carlson is an above-average runner who can handle center field but may be best served as a plus defender in right, for which he has plenty of arm strength. He should be a strong OBP guy who eventually gets to 25 homers a year along with that strong defense, and he has star-level upside that depends mostly on where his hit tool ends up.
Andrew Vaughn (Rick Scuteri / USA Today)
10. Andrew Vaughn, 1B, Chicago White Sox, Age: 23
The best pure hitter in the 2019 draft class, Vaughn showed exceptional patience and contact rates in his last two years at Cal, and carried that over into a pro debut where the White Sox pushed him to High A by the end of the summer. Vaughn has a simple right-handed swing that gets good loft for line-drive power, so while he’s barely 6 feet tall (if that), he’s going to hit 20-25 homers in the big leagues, if not more. The main question on Vaughn is his position; he’s capable at first base but not great over there, while the White Sox have worked him out at third both to try to get him some versatility and improve his agility back at first. The hot corner seems unlikely, but even at first, Vaughn offers a high floor with his patience and hit tool, with the upside of .400+ OBPs and above-average power to make him a good No. 2 or 4 hitter in a championship lineup.
11. Casey Mize, RHP, Detroit, Age: 24
Mize was the first overall pick in 2018, but his ascent to the majors stalled in 2019, right after he threw a no-hitter in Double A, when he hit the injured list with shoulder inflammation. He was healthy in 2020 and throwing as hard as he had before the injury, but became homer-prone in the majors, marring an otherwise promising debut. Mize can touch 97 and sits 92-94, throwing both a four-seamer and sinker according to Statcast data, although the two pitches are pretty similar in velocity. His off-speed stuff ranges from above-average (slider) to plus-plus (his splitter), and MLB hitters swung and missed at 14 percent of all non-fastballs he threw in 2020, so there’s a clear path for him to miss bats and avoid hard contact by pitching less with his fastballs and more with his splitter, slider and curve. He ran into trouble by leaving too many sinkers and sliders up in the zone in the majors, and his slider in particular is more of a chase pitch against right-handed batters than a pitch to generate whiffs in the strike zone. Mize has all the ingredients to be a No. 1 starter, especially with that devastating splitter, so it’s a matter of refining his pitching plan, and working to locate better to the top and bottom of the strike zone. Given his intelligence and athleticism, there’s no reason to doubt his ability to do just that.
12. Triston McKenzie, RHP, Cleveland, Age: 23
McKenzie was absolutely electric in his major-league debut in August, showing exceptional command of the best stuff he’d ever shown, but his velocity tapered off in subsequent starts and Cleveland eventually began to limit his workload after one outing where his average fastball velo dipped from 93-97 in that first game to an average of 90.7. McKenzie gets great extension out over his front side, peaking at 7.4 feet in 2020, giving hitters less time to react and improving his deception, all of which allows him to succeed even if he isn’t sitting at the velocity he showed in his first outing. His changeup doesn’t have much action, and it was better in that first outing when his velocity was up and he could get more separation between the change and the fastball; after that, his slider was his best weapon, with a 20 percent whiff rate on the year, thanks again to how far he extends out front. The entire question about McKenzie’s future revolves around his durability. While I don’t believe his MLB.com listing at 6-5, 165 pounds, he is not and never will be a big guy, given his narrow frame and a metabolism so fast it could do the Kessel run in under 12 parsecs. Maybe he’s a Blake Snell type of starter, limited to 5-6 innings per outing but incredibly effective when he pitches; but I’ll hold out some hope that he eventually fills out and becomes durable enough to pitch at the top of a rotation.
13. Ke’Bryan Hayes, 3B, Pittsburgh, Age: 24
Hayes was the best rookie in the National League in 2020, not that any voters bothered to check the stats before sending in their ballots last year; his month in the majors was worth 1.6 (FanGraphs) to 1.9 (Baseball-Reference) WAR, putting him ahead of eventual winner Devin Williams by a sizable margin. Hayes is an elite defender at third base who’ll rival Nolan Arenado for the title of best in baseball, with great hands and reads off the bat as well as a plus arm. He’s always been more of a hitter for average than big power, so the 5 homers he hit in September were a surprise and probably not indicative of 30-homer seasons to come. He just hits the ball hard, and often: Had he qualified, his hard-hit rate of 55.4 percent would have ranked ninth in baseball, between two guys named Yelich and Trout. His swing doesn’t have a ton of loft, so there’s the potential for a tweak later on that unlocks big-time power, but as is he should hit for a high average with a slew of doubles. Add that to his defense at third and you’ve got a 4-5 win player even if his homer total tops out in the teens.
14. Austin Martin, SS, Toronto, Age: 22
The best prospect in the 2020 draft class slipped to the Blue Jays, who picked fifth and were probably delighted to have a player with his kind of potential get to their selection. Martin has exceptional hand-eye coordination and plus-plus bat speed, striking out only 36 times with 50 walks in 392 PA over his last year-plus at Vanderbilt. He’s probably best suited to third base, but the Jays intend to try him out at shortstop — which he has the athleticism and foot speed to handle — with third, second or even center field all possibilities. He did have some throwing trouble in the brief college season in 2020, but it’s not supposed to be a long-term issue and the Jays seem comfortable with his throwing post-draft. This bat at a skill position is pretty unusual and gives him some MVP upside, although we should be a little cautious since he has yet to take a pro at-bat.
15. Ian Anderson, RHP, Atlanta, Age: 23
Anderson has long been a top prospect, as the No. 3 pick in the 2016 draft and the No. 27 prospect in baseball last winter, but he was better than anyone expected when he saw the majors last year, thanks to a changeup that big-league hitters could not figure out. Anderson’s fastball velocity is above average, but the pitch doesn’t have great spin, so he uses the changeup heavily as a swing-and-miss pitch (hitters whiffed on 20 percent of the changeups he threw) and to keep hitters off the fastball. His curveball is above average despite a low spin rate because that increases its deception, giving him one of the larger deviations between the spin-based movement and the observed movement on the pitch of any curveball in the majors. Even with a fastball that plays below its velocity, he has two real offspeed weapons in his quiver, pitches aggressively, and is built to eat innings, the way you’d want a No. 2 or better starter to do.
16. Luis Patiño, RHP, Tampa Bay, Age: 21
Patiño was the main prospect coming back to the Rays in the Blake Snell trade and could end up taking Snell’s spot in the Rays’ rotation by the middle of 2021. Working mostly as a reliever for the Padres in 2020, Patiño was up to 99 and sat 96-97, with very high spin on both the four-seamer and his plus slider, with batters whiffing on 18 percent of the 61 sliders he threw. His mid- to upper-80s changeup can also flash plus, although he has to get the pitch down more frequently, missing too often in the middle-up part of the zone. His arm is very quick, with a little effort to the delivery and some cutoff when he lands, but he’s very balanced and stays well over the rubber, and his extension out front — as high as 7.6 feet — is among the best in the majors. He could be a No. 1 starter with this three-pitch mix as long as he develops his command and stays healthy.
17. Daniel Lynch, LHP, Kansas City, Age: 24
Brady Singer and Kris Bubic saw the majors in 2020, but Lynch was and still is their best pitching prospect, a lefty who’s up to 99 with three off-speed pitches that can all grade out as plus, coming from a 6-6 or 6-7 frame too. Lynch missed some time in 2019 because of shoulder soreness but returned with the same power stuff he’d shown before, hitting 99 in the Arizona Fall League, and was doing so again at the Royals’ alternate site last summer while he worked on improving his changeup and developing more confidence in the pitch. His fastball doesn’t play up to its velocity, so he’ll need to pitch more with his secondary stuff, but his slider was already plus and his changeup looks like one now too. He’ll have to keep working on repeating his delivery to boost his command and control, but this is elite stuff from the left side, and his arsenal has only improved since we last saw him.
18. Spencer Torkelson, 1B/3B, Detroit, Age: 21
Torkelson was the first overall pick in the 2020 draft, following a career at Arizona State in which he hit 54 homers in 129 games for the Sun Devils, including a .780 slugging percentage last spring before the world fell apart. He’s an advanced hitter with a fairly simple right-handed swing and plus-plus power now, as he’s already well filled out and quite strong for his age. Torkelson is competent at first base, but the Tigers have tried him out at third and will continue to develop him there, at least in the short term, since playing the more difficult position would boost his value quite a bit even if he’s just a fringe defender there. Even at first base, this would be an impact bat who’ll hit 30+ homers on a regular basis with a strong OBP, but if third base works out — and it is a longshot — he’d probably make some MVP ballots in his prime.
19. Francisco Alvarez, C, NY Mets, Age: 19
Alvarez signed with the Mets in July 2018 for $2.7 million, then a club record for a signing bonus for an international player, and hasn’t stopped hitting since. He’s a force at the plate, with a compact but powerful swing as well as impressive command of the strike zone for someone who just turned 19 in November. He rarely strikes out and already has enough power to project as an above-average regular at catcher when he gets to the majors. Behind the plate, he’s a solid-average receiver with an arm that might be a tick above that, enough of everything that he’s going to stay at the position. With his contact skills and present power, he’ll be very good, but if the power develops, or he maintains his strong walk rates, the Venezuelan teenager will be a star.
20. Edward Cabrera, RHP, Miami, Age: 23
As good as Sixto Sánchez is — and he’s very very good — there’s a solid chance Cabrera will be better, because he has the swing-and-miss secondary pitch Sánchez lacks. Cabrera is 96-100 with a plus-plus changeup that’s among the best in the minors; it’s 90ish with huge tumble and might be a grade 80 pitch. He might have debuted in 2020 with the Marlins contending but had a minor shoulder issue, so they chose to be cautious, recognizing the top-of-the-rotation potential he has with those two pitches. His slider is average to above-average, with a little less power than you’d expect from his arm speed but enough to miss some bats. He’s 6-5 and 217 pounds, and probably has room on that frame to fill out, so he has a size advantage over Sixto as well. Pick your poison: They’re both potential aces and very, very valuable prospects right now.
21. Matt Manning, RHP, Detroit, Age: 23
Manning would have seen the majors along with teammates Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal last year but for a minor forearm strain that led the Tigers to shut him down in late August. A former two-sport star in high school who had a scholarship to play basketball at Loyola Marymount, the 6-foot-6 Manning was more of a thrower with a golden arm when the Tigers took him ninth overall in 2016, but Detroit has turned him into a polished pitcher, with a much-improved delivery that gets him over his front side better and a real breaking ball that was absent when he was in high school. He can sit comfortably at 92-95, with more in there if needed, and has the curve and changeup as above-average secondary pitches. He did have serious trouble with his control the winter after he signed, but that’s long behind him. I think he can be a No. 2 starter if healthy, especially given his athleticism and how well he’s already taken to the adjustments the Tigers made with him.
22. Tarik Skubal, LHP, Detroit, Age: 24
Skubal can show the best combination of stuff, delivery and athleticism of the Tigers’ big three pitching prospects (along with Casey Mize and Matt Manning), but major-league hitters hit Skubal very hard last year, and that’s not consistent with the quality of his pitches. Skubal sat 92-97 in the majors with an upper-80s slider, both of which finished in the zone far too often, the main reason he was hit so hard. Skubal’s approach is to try to go up with his high-spin four-seamer, down and away to lefties with his breaking pitches, and away to righties with the changeup, but he executed the curve and change far better than the fastball and slider. Most of the damage he gave up was from right-handed batters, and his failure to execute the fastball is probably the reason. He should dominate with this stuff, and I still think he will, but there are clear adjustments he needs to make to get to that No. 2 starter ceiling.
23. Corbin Carroll, OF, Arizona, Age: 21
The Diamondbacks were ecstatic to get Carroll, the No. 4 prospect on my draft board in 2019, with the 16th overall pick, and he has impressed across the board since signing, even showing more power than anticipated once he got into pro ball. Corbin can flash all five tools, as he’s already a 70 runner, projects to stay in center with above-average defense, and has shown a real feel to hit, with an advanced idea of the strike zone already despite playing amateur baseball at a private high school in Seattle. He’s just 5-10, which hurt his draft stock but hasn’t kept him from making hard, loud contact. He may not have the most pure upside in the Diamondbacks’ system, but he has the best combination of ceiling and probability, and may be advanced enough to move quickly to High A or Double A this year.
24. Julio Rodriguez, OF, Seattle, Age: 20
Rodriguez was just 18 years old when he ripped through Low A and High A in 2019, hitting like someone three years his senior, with a very impressive contact rate for any prospect at those stops, and he probably would have spent most of 2020 at Double A had there been a season. He’s a big, strong kid with long levers and an easy, rotational swing that looks geared to hit the ball a long way. He’s played mostly center field to date, but he’s going to end up in right field or left given his frame, with the power to profile in a corner. What remains to be seen is how much he’ll hit — his pitch recognition isn’t that advanced and his swing can get long — which will determine whether he’s a star who can hit cleanup or just a very solid regular with power and lower OBPs.
Sixto Sánchez (Thomas Shea / USA Today)
25. Sixto Sánchez, RHP, Miami, Age: 22
Sánchez was every bit as good as advertised and then some when he debuted for the Marlins in late August, and held that form through the Marlins’ run into the playoffs. Sánchez, the main piece coming back to Miami in the J.T. Realmuto trade, averaged 98.5 on his four-seamer as a starter, and showed a wipeout changeup as well as two pretty functional breaking balls. The latter was always the main question he faced as a prospect, other than health, as he doesn’t naturally spin the ball that well, but he got whiff rates over 10 percent on both his curveball and his slider. His strikeout rate in the majors was lower than you’d expect, but he has the weapons to put away hitters, needing to work more on location when he’s ahead in the count. He still has to maintain his conditioning and show he can hold velocity like this over a regular season’s workload, but this is No. 1 starter material with this new, more complete arsenal.
26. Jazz Chisholm, SS, Miami, Age: 23
Chisholm was the Diamondbacks’ top prospect before they traded him to Miami at the 2019 deadline for starter Zac Gallen, who’s been outstanding for Arizona since the trade. Chisholm is still a very high-upside prospect, a plus-plus runner with incredible bat speed, strong hands, and the quickness and arm to stay at shortstop, but he lacks polish on both sides of the ball and could really use a year in the high minors in 2021. He wasn’t ready for the majors last year, struggling in particular with big-league breaking stuff (whiffing on one of every seven breaking pitches he saw), but the Marlins saw value in getting him a cup of coffee after a summer at the alternate site. He’s still an elite prospect, with 20-homer upside and great speed at a premium defensive position, but also the sort of prospect who might be most hurt by a year of lost reps facing live pitching.
27. Bobby Witt Jr., SS, Kansas City, Age: 21
Witt was the second pick in the 2019 draft class, beating his father by one spot (Bobby Sr. went third overall in 1985, and the next year walked 143 men in 157.2 innings for Texas), with arm strength inherited from his dad but the potential for five tools out at shortstop too. Witt is a plus runner with great instincts and projects to be a plus defender with a cannon for an arm. He has a simple swing but collapses his back side, adding to power but possibly costing him contact as he faces better pitching. He played extremely well at the Royals’ alternate site, where they also had him work on smaller things like bunting for hits, and could move very quickly once minor-league games resume. He’s the long-term shortstop solution for the Royals, and if he hits for average as well as everything else, he’ll be their best player by his peak.
28. Hunter Greene, RHP, Cincinnati, Age: 21
Greene was back from Tommy John surgery last summer and throwing hard once again at Cincinnati’s alternate site, clocked up to 102 there while he would pitch at 97-98. Greene has remarkably easy velocity, and while he rehabbed from the surgery he gained a substantial amount of muscle, which should help him work deeper into games. He’s added a cutter, along with the improving slider and hard changeup, although that last pitch might be too firm and doesn’t have a lot of action to it. He was working six innings or so per outing by the end of the summer, which should set him up for a full season of pitching if we get a regular minor league schedule — and he could potentially make his debut by the end of the year.
29. Forrest Whitley, RHP, Houston, Age: 23
Whitley still hasn’t made his major-league debut after what amounts to two lost seasons, the first due to poor performance and the second due to the pandemic, but he’s still a potential front-of-the-rotation prospect if he can recapture the form he showed in 2018. Whitley is listed at 6-7 and 238 pounds, and comes at hitters with five distinct pitches, headlined by a fastball that was sitting 97-98 in short stints at the Astros’ alternate site last summer, as well as a plus-plus changeup, plus cutter, and two solid-average breaking balls. His loss of command in 2019 remains a puzzle, and maybe he would be better served via an internship in the Astros’ bullpen before they stick him in the rotation, but there is still so much to like here between the stuff and the size that I remain a believer that he’ll be an impact big-league starter in time.
30. Asa Lacy, LHP, Kansas City, Age: 22
Lacy had a legitimate argument to go first overall in 2020 as the best college pitcher in the draft, and a left-hander to boot, but the early end to the season probably put an end to that possibility. He flashed No. 1 stuff before the world ended, touching 98, sitting 93-94 deep into starts, with a plus changeup and an above-average slider, all with a good delivery that has him taking a big step toward the plate. His command and control lagged behind a little, especially when he just tries to throw hard and harder when he falls behind or needs a swing and miss, but that’s more a function of inexperience than mechanical or physical deficiency. I don’t think the year off hurts guys like Lacy as much as it hurts most prospects — I’d rather he take a few months off than work deeply into June because his team runs to Omaha — and wouldn’t be surprised to see him get to Double A in his first pro season, with No. 2 to No. 1 starter potential.
31. Marco Luciano, SS, San Francisco, Age: 19
Luciano was the Giants’ big signing in the July 2018 international period, getting $2.6 million as a bonus, and had a tremendous U.S. debut in 2019 in the Arizona League at age 17. He did so well, and is so important in the Giants’ eyes, that they had him at their alternate site last summer even though he was just 18, and then had him play through instructs, all to try to replace some of what was lost when he would have been in Low A. Luciano has plus bat speed and loose hands at the plate, with the ability to drive the ball to all fields and power to come as he fills out. He’s a shortstop for now, with a plus arm and soft enough hands, although he might grow big enough to move to third base in time, especially since his foot speed is already fringy. Even at third base, though, he could have the hit/OBP/power tools to project as a superstar there, just needing some reps against real pitching in Low A to prove it.
32. Ronny Mauricio, SS, NY Mets, Age: 20
Mauricio may have been passed by Alvarez in the Mets’ system but is still a potential star thanks to his ability to add value on both sides of the ball, with his upside really a function of how strong he ultimately gets. He’s a dynamic athlete who plays above-average defense at short, and his hands are extremely quick, generating a ton of bat speed, although so far that’s put the ball on the ground far too often and he’ll have to learn to put the ball in the air more often to get to his ceiling. He did make a lot of contact at age 18 in Low A, however, so there’s reason to think he can improve his line-drive rate and possibly get to some power in a few years. Mauricio won’t turn 20 until April but has already spent a full year in Low A, despite the loss of the 2020 season to the pandemic, and could still head to High A this year at an appropriate age. There’s huge upside here; last offseason I said he could become a top 5 prospect with a big year at High A, and I’m sticking to it.
33. Brendan McKay, LHP, Tampa Bay, Age: 25
McKay was a top 20 prospect in the game going into 2020, but he tested positive for COVID-19 in July, and then had surgery on his left shoulder in August that ended his season. Pre-surgery, McKay showed exquisite command with an above-average fastball and plus changeup as well as two breaking balls, although he barely used the change in his major-league time in 2019 and right-handed batters made him pay for it. His delivery was not violent or high-effort, and he’s a superb fielder, so if the velocity comes back he’d be the same high-floor prospect he was before. He might still hit occasionally, but he was already showing he’s a pitcher first and foremost and that he’d need a lot more reps at the plate to make him a viable two-way player. We’ll just have to see how well he comes back from the knife.
34. Riley Greene, OF, Detroit, Age: 20
Greene was the fifth overall pick in 2019, out of a Florida high school, but impressed the Tigers so much in his pro debut that they had him finish his first summer in full-season ball. That decision looks great in hindsight, since there was no season in 2020, and at least he heads into 2021 with a little experience outside of short-season leagues. Greene is a bat-first prospect, with very good feel to hit and a mechanically sound swing, projecting to get to above-average or plus power in his 20s. He’s played all three outfield spots, with good instincts in the field, but projects to go to a corner and be above-average there, given his speed now and the likely decline as he gets bigger. Like so many teenage prospects, he needs a minor-league season to continue to develop, or just to show us how advanced he already is.
35. Vidal Bruján, 2B, Tampa Bay, Age: 23
I thought Bruján might get a callup for the Rays during their pennant run, giving them another infielder, right-handed bat off the bench, and possible pinch runner, although there’s still no obvious place for him to play right now in St. Petersburg. Bruján has gotten much stronger since the Rays first signed him, when he was somewhere near 120 pounds, and is now driving the ball with more authority without any real change to his swing or ability to make contact. He’s a 70 runner and plus defender at second, and a switch-hitter who’s much better batting left-handed, with large platoon splits the last two years in the minors. The Rays had him, Wander Franco and Taylor Walls at their alternate site, so all three players moved around the field, with Bruján getting reps at short, second and in center field, which might be a hint at how he’ll debut in the majors — playing multiple positions while waiting for a full-time job to open up at second or in center. He could be an All-Star at either spot, and probably could be someone’s shortstop if they were willing to bet on his bat and speed while accepting more average defense.
36. Brandon Marsh, OF, LA Angels, Age: 23
Jo Adell debuted for the Angels last year but struck out 42 percent of the time and struggled in the field, so perhaps the Angels will let Adell spend the year at Triple A and give Marsh a shot at the right field job. Marsh impressed the Angels at the alternate site as his power continued to develop, including power the other way as well, while still playing above-average defense in center. He cut his strikeout rate significantly from 2018 to 2019 despite moving up to Double A for the full season, and if he holds that while also adding a grade of power, he could be a 5+ WAR player in center, or maybe something like peak Brett Gardner with more pop in a corner spot.
37. Kristian Robinson, OF, Arizona, Age: 20
Robinson is a swing-for-the-fences prospect in both literal and figurative terms: He has otherworldly power, but his approach is still crude and he may have trouble with contact when he can return to Low A at some point this year. Robinson is a big, athletic kid, with plus raw power and plus speed, quick enough to play center but with the arm to handle right if he outgrows the middle of the diamond. He’s shown some patience in short-season ball but has struggled with off-speed stuff, in part due to low recognition and in part because he overstrides at the plate and ends up out in front. In instructs this past fall, he showed enormous power to the opposite field, but also showed he still has a ways to go picking up anything other than fastballs. He just turned 20 in December, and between the lost pandemic year and his relative inexperience growing up in the Bahamas, he’s probably more like 18 in baseball years, but the upside here is undeniable even if it’s far away.
38. Luis Campusano, C, San Diego, Age: 22
Campusano has come on so quickly as a prospect on both sides of the ball that the Padres have been willing to trade away most of their other catchers — Austin Hedges, Francisco Mejía, Blake Hunt and Luis Torrens have all left the organization in deals in the last six months — to clear the way for him to be their catcher of the future. He has great bat control, rarely striking out, and as he’s gotten stronger he’s been making harder contact and driving the ball more in the air; his one ball in play in his brief major-league call-up was a flyball hit at 101.1 mph. He’s also improved substantially as a catcher since signing, with a plus arm and at least average receiving skills. The Padres are right to bet on him; a catcher with this kind of bat is extremely valuable. (He is currently facing felony charges in Georgia for marijuana possession, under an archaic law that will likely fall to the tide of decriminalization, so there is some chance he’ll miss part of the 2021 season.)
39. Josiah Gray, RHP, LA Dodgers, Age: 23
Gray came to the Dodgers along with Jeter Downs (since traded to Boston) as part of a big salary dump for the Reds, a trade in which the Dodgers used their resources to essentially buy two very good prospects, and Gray has emerged as the best part of the deal. A second-round pick out of Division II Le Moyne College in 2018, Gray has a four-pitch mix and has worked to improve his deception by maintaining a consistent release point for all of his pitches. His fastball is 93-95 with good run and carry despite the low release height, generating a lot of swings and misses on the pitch. The Dodgers saw more consistency and quality to the curveball in 2020, adding depth against left-handed batters. Gray was just so-so at the alternate site over the summer, but the Dodgers chose to bring him to their playoff bubble in case they needed another right-handed arm in the bullpen. He’s still developing, and talks quite a bit about working with different grips to improve the characteristics on his pitches like spin efficiency. As a converted guy who was primarily a shortstop until 2018, he has a lot of room for continued growth as a pitcher.
40. Max Meyer, RHP, Miami, Age: 22
Meyer might only be a 6-foot right-hander, but he’s been up to 100 mph as a starter with a hellacious slider, and there’s as much consensus that Meyer can start as I’ve ever heard scouts offer on a right-hander this size. The University of Minnesota had him throw sliders way too often, but his fastball plays, and it turns out he has a pretty good changeup that was gathering dust on a shelf in Minneapolis the last few years. He’s very athletic and has a great delivery for someone who throws this hard, also earning raves for how hard he competes. It’s easy to project him as a top-end, 2-3 win reliever, but the Marlins see him as a starter and he could give them another above-average or better option in their rotation along with Sixto Sánchez and Edward Cabrera as soon as the end of 2022.
Joey Bart (Kyle Terada / USA Today)
41. Joey Bart, C, San Francisco, Age: 24
Bart only debuted out of need, and his lack of experience really showed, especially once pitchers adjusted to him and started pounding him with soft stuff away. The No. 2 overall pick in 2018, Bart missed a chunk of time in 2019 due to injury, so he reached the majors with just 130 games of pro experience, and that exacerbated the problems he already had with contact. Bart has plus power, a plus arm, and gets raves for his receiving and game-calling, so it comes down to how much he can hit. With his deep hand load and some recognition issues with off-speed pitches, he’s not an advanced hitter right now, and there’s a good chance he ends up a 40/45 hitter but is still a regular because he’s a great defensive catcher with power. I generally argue that we should dismiss stats from 2020, but Bart whiffing on more than a quarter of the non-fastballs he saw this year is at least a tiny bit concerning, especially with previous concerns on his hit tool. I think he’s a longtime regular, with the high floor from his defense, but maybe doesn’t have the hit tool to be a star.
42. Bo Naylor, C, Cleveland, Age: 21
Naylor continues to make great progress behind the plate, to the point now where he’s not just likely to stay there but has a chance to end up a plus defender with the glove and arm, a testament to his athleticism and his work ethic. Naylor was the 29th overall pick in 2018, following in the footsteps of his brother and fellow first-round pick Josh, but was more of an infielder who’d tried catching rather than a polished backstop — and maybe that’s good, considering the poor track record of high school catchers who were drafted in the first round. He’s an above-average runner with good bat speed, making contact at a rate above league average in Low A in 2019, even though he was young for the level at 19 years old. His results on balls in play were just fair, however, with more power but a lower BABIP than I would have forecast. He’s going to catch, and there’s a lot of untapped potential in the bat, enough that he could leap into the top echelon of prospects with a strong year at the plate in High A or Double A in 2021.
43. Zac Veen, OF, Colorado, Age: 19
The best all-around high school player available in the 2020 draft, Veen certainly looks the part of an elite position player prospect — tall, athletic, projectable, with plenty of tools. Veen has plus raw power now, with a pretty (if sometimes long) left-handed swing that should produce long drives with some swing and miss. He plays center now and I imagine he’ll stay there a few years, but he’s already 6-4 and might end up 225-230 pounds even if he doesn’t get any taller, so right field seems far more likely. As with most high school hitters, it’s going to come down to how ready he is to face pro pitching, which we won’t see until we get minor-league games back this summer.
44. Leody Taveras, CF, Texas, Age: 22
Taveras played 33 games in the majors last year and just barely sneaks under the wire to retain his rookie eligibility for one more year. He showed flashes of how good a defender he is in center, making more out-of-zone plays in center than many highly regarded defenders who played more innings there in 2020, including Kevin Kiermaier, Harrison Bader and George Springer, thanks to his top-end sprint speed in the 96th percentile. At the plate, he struck out far more often than he ever has in the minors, with breaking stuff his bugbear, but did make harder contact than expected when he did put the ball in play. He’ll play all of 2021 at age 22, and in a non-pandemic year probably wouldn’t have seen the majors last season. Right now the Rangers should just hand him the everyday centerfield job, where he’s going to be a 70 defender, and hope that his longstanding ability to put the ball in play, with strikeout rates down around 20 percent in the minors, comes back as he gets used to major-league curveballs and sliders.
45. Randy Arozarena, OF, Tampa Bay, Age: 26
So … he’s not actually that good, but he’s good, and certainly enough to be a regular in an outfield corner, even if he’s no longer hitting 7-8 homers a month. Arozarena never showed this kind of power in the minors, but he did hit the ball hard everywhere he played, and in 2020 he boosted his launch angle so that far more of those hard-hit balls became Barrels (thus very likely to become hits). He’s not a plus runner but has good instincts on the bases and in the outfield, where he projects to be at least above average in a corner. The Arozarena with the flat swing we saw in 2019 and earlier was more like a fourth outfielder with some everyday upside, but with contact this hard and now a launch angle near 10 percent, he’s more like a 25-30 homer guy who could hit fourth in any lineup. Arozarena was arrested in Mexico this offseason following a situation involving a custody dispute, but was released when his former partner did not want to press charges.
46. Royce Lewis, SS, Minnesota, Age: 22
Lewis was the first overall pick in the 2017 draft but hit a bump in his ascent to the majors in 2019 after some offseason workouts led to a breakdown in his mechanics at the plate. Lewis is a plus-plus runner who projected to hit for average without a ton of power, but before the 2019 season, he adopted a high leg kick and big hand movement, but instead of driving the ball more he would bail out more often and make weak contact on stuff away. The Twins have worked with him to get him more online so he can work toward the middle of the field, making better quality contact and letting him use his legs more often. Lewis is rough at shortstop, with all of the athleticism and speed to play there but well below-average actions and instincts; the Twins have tried Lewis a little in center but plan to continue to work him at shortstop, which I think is smart from a value perspective but an uphill battle on the field. There’s a ton of natural ability here, and just restoring Lewis’ swing from 2018 would go a long way to demonstrating the type of player he can be. I see Lewis as a leadoff hitter with huge speed and plus defense in center, different from the player he was in high school but still a valuable player on both sides of the ball.
47. Logan Gilbert, RHP, Seattle, Age: 24
Gilbert is one of the most likely mid-rotation starter prospects in the minors, perhaps lacking the upside of some guys ahead of him who throw harder, but with a higher floor and more probability. Gilbert was the Mariners’ first-round pick in 2018 after a spring when he pitched well but with less velocity due to a case of mono; since then, he’s picked back up to pitch more at 92-95 with a plus breaking ball. At the alternate site in 2020, the Mariners had him work on his changeup to further round out his arsenal, although he didn’t show any platoon split in 2019. Gilbert’s delivery is so easy that it’s almost boring, and he has some of the best command of anyone on this list, so while he probably doesn’t have a 70 pitch anywhere, he should be an above-average starter for someone for a very long time, maybe outlasting a lot of guys who burn twice as bright.
48. Clarke Schmidt, RHP, NY Yankees, Age: 25
Schmidt made three appearances for the Yankees in 2020, two in relief and one as a starter, where he was uncharacteristically wild, but his pitch mix in short stints isn’t a good reflection of how he’s going to pitch as a starter. Schmidt’s slider is plus, with huge tilt and an average spin rate in the majors of over 3,000 rpm, and he gets whiffs on it out of the zone, but in his major-league time he didn’t miss any bats with his four-seamer or sinker in the zone. The four-seamer is 92-95 with a high spin rate, but Schmidt didn’t command the pitch in the majors, missing middle-middle or above the zone too much. That was less of an issue in the minors, where he worked as a starter on a regular schedule. With a changeup and sinker, he has a legit four-pitch mix and a couple of weapons that should miss bats, and has a delivery that is far cleaner than it was in college before he blew out his elbow. I think he just needs a regular routine and pitching schedule to be a mid-rotation or better starter.
49. DL Hall, LHP, Baltimore, Age: 22
Hall was the Orioles’ first-round pick in 2017 and has missed a ton of bats in pro ball, striking out 29 percent of batters he faced in full-season ball, but he’s been wild and walked nearly 1 in 6 batters he faced in High A in 2019. Hall is a great athlete who’ll show three above-average to plus pitches, pitching at 93-96 with a very tight, two-plane curveball and low-80s changeup; the curveball has helped him destroy left-handed batters, while his main issue with right-handers is walks rather than contact. His delivery is fine, but he rushes through it and tries to overpower guys rather than using his swing-and-miss stuff as is, which really should improve with repetitions and maturity. Hall has at least No. 2 starter stuff, and I’m betting on the athleticism and delivery to get him to average control, although that’s not going to improve until we get minor league games.
50. Matt Liberatore, LHP, St. Louis, Age: 21
Liberatore’s trade to St. Louis last winter was a surprise at the time, but the trade netted Tampa Bay Randy Arozarena, without whom they probably don’t win the second pennant in franchise history, so with a bit of hindsight it makes more sense that the Rays would give up one of their top pitching prospects. Liberatore is a great athlete who can touch the mid-90s and gets big spin on his curveball, while also mixing in a slider and changeup, with the slider especially promising given how new the pitch is for him. One concern on Liberatore is that his delivery doesn’t provide that much deception, an issue many pitchers with premium stuff and very pretty mechanics have had before. He’s also had some trouble keeping the delivery together with men on base, although that’s easier to remedy than insufficient deception. If hitters see his fastball too well, that’s a bigger concern, because it has sunk some very talented pitchers before, from Luke Hochevar to Casey Kelly to Jeff Hoffman. We’ll see if St. Louis can find a way to keep hitters off Liberatore’s fastball, because the rest of the package looks like a No. 2 starter in the making.
51. Brennen Davis, OF, Chicago Cubs, Age: 21
Davis was the Cubs’ second-rounder in 2018, a two-sport athlete who starred in basketball and baseball for Basha High School in Arizona, but has turned out to be more advanced at the plate than most players who split time across multiple sports. Davis has a balanced swing with good extension, although it can get kind of long because he’s so lanky. He showed solid plate discipline in his full-season debut in 2019, although he was limited to 50 games when a finger injury effectively ended his season that July, with more power than anticipated given how much room he has left to fill out. He was a shortstop in high school but has handled the move to center field well, showing enough range already to project to stay there over the long term and even end up an above-average to plus defender. He just needs reps, as with so many players drafted in 2018-19 who haven’t gotten much playing time yet, but has star upside between the OBP/power potential and his range in center.
52. Xavier Edwards, 2B/SS, Tampa Bay, Age: 21
Edwards went to Tampa Bay in the Tommy Pham trade but has yet to play a pro game for the Rays due to the pandemic. He’s a natural shortstop who played more second base in the Padres’ system, although the Rays might try him back at shortstop to maintain some versatility and see if his speed and arm stroke are good enough to play there. He’s a plus runner with great bat-to-ball skills and quick wrists, generating good bat speed that should translate into fringe-average power when he fills out — although without that, he’s going to have a hard time generating enough extra-base power to be a regular. His ultimate ceiling depends on that, and whether he stays at short, or perhaps becomes a plus defender at second or even in center field.
53. Michael Kopech, RHP, Chicago White Sox, Age: 25
Kopech opted out of the 2020 season, which gives him one more shot at these rankings before he likely loses his eligibility early in the 2021 campaign. He threw 14 big-league innings in 2018 before his elbow barked and he had to undergo Tommy John surgery, missing all of 2019, but all reports are that his stuff had returned, with a mid-90s fastball and two potential plus pitches in the slider and changeup. He’s modeled himself after Noah Syndergaard in his delivery and conditioning, and he’d been healthy before the torn elbow ligament, with the size and athleticism to be a 200-inning guy. We just need to see him on a mound to assess his progress post-surgery, which may come in Triple A after the White Sox added Lance Lynn via trade this winter, and to see if he can turn either of his breaking balls into a consistent swing-and-miss option. He still has the ceiling of an ace, even though his timeline has been shifted forward by a few years.
54. Emerson Hancock, RHP, Seattle, Age: 22
The Mariners took Hancock with the sixth overall pick in 2020, although a full spring might have given him more of a chance to go higher in the draft, as he didn’t show his full complement of stuff before the pandemic arrived. The University of Georgia tried to make Hancock a groundball guy, telling him to work down in the zone, but that’s not a good fit for his delivery or arsenal. He was 93-97 for the Bulldogs last spring, with two fringy breaking balls and a changeup he never used, but the Mariners directed him to use the changeup over the summer and saw an above-average pitch, as well as a much-improved slider and good ride on the fastball when he stopped trying to sink it. He’s a good athlete, and still has a lot of room to fill out even though he’s already 21. The Mariners do have a lot of work to do here, more than you’d expect with a college arm taken in the top 10, but he has No. 2 starter upside if that slider is consistently plus for him going forward.
55. Grayson Rodriguez, RHP, Baltimore, Age: 21
Rodriguez was the Orioles’ first-round pick in 2018 and dominated Low A the following year as a 19-year-old, working on a very restrictive set of pitch and innings counts where he only pitched into the seventh inning once all year. Rodriguez is built like a workhorse at 6-5 and 220 pounds (listed), and could blow his 94-96 mph fastball right by Low-A hitters, elevating it when he needed to. He has three secondary pitches, led by a tight 11/5 curveball that isn’t consistent but can show good depth and that he can throw for strikes, while his slider remains a work in progress. His delivery has a big pause in it that limits how much power he can derive from his lower half, and some cross-body action because of where his front leg strikes. Despite the mechanical stuff, he shows close to average control, and command I’d call good for someone his age. When he gets to pitch in games again, I’d like to see improvement to his off-speed stuff and a smoother delivery that lets him drive with his legs more, so he can get to his No. 2 starter upside.
56. Jeter Downs, SS/2B, Boston, Age: 22
Downs has been traded twice now, with the second deal bringing him to the Red Sox as part of the return for Mookie Betts, just in time for the second base job in Boston to open up right in front of him. Downs is an advanced hitter for his age, making hard contact with a line drive-oriented swing that helped him lead the High-A California League in doubles in 2019 while he had the league’s 11th-lowest strikeout rate. He’s played primarily shortstop, but he’s going to end up at another position, most likely second base, where he should be above average. He may not have the huge upside of other prospects on this list, but he has a pretty high floor as someone who’ll hit around .300 with a ton of doubles, a strong OBP, and some added value on defense at second or third.
57. Nolan Gorman, 3B, St. Louis, Age: 21
Gorman has grade-80 power with a lot of swing and miss in his game, but that formula has worked well for many hitters, notably Joey Gallo, who wouldn’t have had careers 10 or 20 years ago. For Gorman, as with those hitters, the key is getting to enough contact so the power plays. The Cardinals were aggressive with Gorman in 2019, sending the 19-year-old to High A in the middle of the season, and his strikeout rate crept up to 31 percent — within tolerable limits, but it can’t get any higher while he’s still facing minor-league pitching. He just swings very hard, even with two strikes, also like Gallo always has. Gorman worked extensively with coach José Oquendo at the Cardinals’ alternate site, giving the Cardinals more reason to think he can stay at third base in the long term; he may never be more than fringy there but has enough athleticism to stick. He has a 40-homer bat if he just keeps that contact rate to 70 percent or better.
58. Heliot Ramos, OF, San Francisco, Age: 21
Ramos is still just 21, since he was only 17 when the Giants took him in the first round in 2017, and should start this year in Double A after spending the tail end of the summer of 2019 at that level, which puts him on track for a debut when he’s 22. He’s an aggressive hitter who can be all-or-nothing at the plate, with good enough hand-eye coordination that he’ll hit for some average, and plus power even with a high strikeout rate. Ramos has mostly played center in pro ball, but he’s already put a lot of muscle on his 6-foot frame and he’s going to have to move to a corner in the majors – probably left field, given how large right field is in San Francisco – but he has 30-homer power and I think enough hard contact in his approach to profile as an above-average regular there.
Josh Lowe (Jonathan Dyer / USA Today)
59. Josh Lowe, OF, Tampa Bay, Age: 23
Lowe had shoulder surgery that would have kept him out until at least May of 2020 had there been a season but instead got the entire year to rehab and will be good to go whenever spring training starts. He was a first-rounder who didn’t produce at all until 2019, when he tightened his approach at the plate and improved his offense across the board, hitting for more power and stealing 30 bags, while playing plus defense in center. Lowe still swings and misses, but he does everything else you want: he runs deep counts and takes walks, hits for plus power, runs the bases well, and shows excellent range in center. His swing can get a bit long but he repeats it well, and you’ll take 150 strikeouts a year with all of the rewards he offers on both sides of the ball.
60. Robert Hassell, OF, San Diego, Age: 19
Hassell was the first high school player off the board in the 2020 draft, going eighth overall to the Padres, who loved his swing and think he’s got a chance to stay in center for the long haul. The swing is a classic left-hander’s, and Hassell has great bat speed and good loft in his finish for line-drive power, probably more doubles with 15-20 homers at his peak. He showed impressive plate discipline over the summer at the Padres’ alternate site, facing many big-league or other hard-throwing pitchers who were a huge step above what he’d faced in high school. He’s a solid-average runner with a plus arm, but his reads in center have been good enough that he’ll play there for at least the short term.
61. Alek Thomas, OF, Arizona, Age: 21
Thomas, the team’s second-round pick in 2018, started to show more power in 2019 in full-season A ball without a big jump in his strikeouts, giving more reason to think he’ll end up showing all five tools when he gets to his prime. Thomas has a lot going on in his swing, but he’s shown very good feel to hit and strong pitch recognition so far, striking out less than you’d think from his swing mechanics while getting good lift to drive the ball. He’s a plus runner with the potential to stay in center and be above average there, although the Diamondbacks have other outfielders who may push him to a corner. He may strike out more as he moves up the ladder — his contact rate dropped after a promotion to High A late in 2019, albeit in a small sample — but it looks like he’ll have the OBP and slugging to profile as a regular in a corner or an above-average regular in center, if not even more.
62. Spencer Howard, RHP, Philadelphia, Age: 24
Howard’s debut in 2020 was disappointing on a few levels, as he didn’t miss as many bats as he should have with his stuff and saw his season end in mid-September after another bout of shoulder stiffness. Howard’s biggest problem was location; he left a lot of pitches right over the heart of the strike zone, or middle-up, and paid for it, allowing four homers just in his first two starts and giving up way more hard contact than you’d expect, most of them on four-seamers and changeups middle-middle or middle-up. There are glimmers of good news here: Hitters whiffed on nearly a quarter of the sliders he threw, a rate that held up even on sliders in the zone, and he landed his breaking stuff for strikes. He’s going to have to locate his four-seamer better, and get the changeup – his weakest offspeed pitch – down in the zone more, but I still see a mid-rotation starter here if he can get past this on-and-off shoulder issue.
63. Jordan Balazovic, RHP, Minnesota, Age: 22
Balazovic has always shown really good feel to pitch, working well to all sides of the plate with advanced command for his age, and his physical projection has started to come out in the last two years, giving him at least mid-rotation potential. Balazovic, the Twins’ fifth-round pick in 2015, now sits 93-95 and can flash better, with an above-average hybrid breaking ball and a solid-average changeup. He’s a strike-thrower who has already shown a willingness to pitch in to hitters, and gets good deception from his delivery thanks to where he holds his glove. There’s still some more projection left here, and he worked in the weight room last summer to continue filling out. If he picks up more velocity or turns either of those secondary pitches into plus offerings, he could end up a No. 2 or better.
64. Braden Shewmake, SS, Atlanta, Age: 23
When Shewmake came out of Texas A&M in 2019, scouts’ expectations were that he’d have to move to another position, either third base or possibly center field, where he’d looked very good during BP and infield/outfield. Now he’s almost a lock to stay at shortstop after a strong showing there in Low A after he was drafted, and he worked at the alternate site with Atlanta in 2020, with a bat that could make him a quiet star over there. Shewmake has good bat-to-ball skills with loose hands at the plate, but his swing is handsy and doesn’t make much use of his lower half, so even as he fills out – and he has a lot of room to do so – he may not automatically add power without some mechanical changes to make him less linear and more rotational. As is, he might hit .300 thanks to his high contact rates, and he’s an above-average runner who’ll add some value on the bases. All that with reliable, solid-average defense at short points to a regular, and a great pick for Atlanta with their second first-round selection in the 2019 draft.
65. Reid Detmers, LHP, LA Angels, Age: 21
Detmers and the Angels were a perfect fit: He, the most polished starter in the 2020 draft class; they, a team with a chronic need for starting pitching, and the urgency of Mike Trout’s peak slipping away while they look for it. Detmers has plus command already and came in with three pitches that graded out as average above-average. The curveball is his best offering, and the Angels let him use his slider more after he barely did so at Louisville. He works to all parts of the zone with his 88-93 mph fastball, although there’s some small concern that velocity might slip when he’s working every fifth day rather than every seventh. The Angels have also worked with him to keep him better aligned toward the plate so he can locate more effectively to his arm side. He’s a starter, for sure, and the question of just what kind of starter is probably a function of how his velocity looks in a pro rotation, a question I hope we’ll answer this summer.
66. Jasson Dominguez, OF, NY Yankees, Age: 18
Dominguez was the top prospect in the 2019 international free agent class and received a $5 million bonus from the Yankees, who seemed ready to move him aggressively until the pandemic hit. Dominguez had an extremely mature body for a 16-year-old when he signed, and even though he won’t turn 18 until early February, he already is more filled out than many players two or three years his senior. He’s big, but still retains explosiveness in his movements, including plus running speed and great hand acceleration at the plate, leading to elite exit velocities. We haven’t seen Dominguez in games yet, so any take on his readiness to hit pro pitching (and work the count, pick up spin, and so on) is just a guess, but his physical tools point to an elite bat who right now can stay in center field.
67. Luis García, RHP, Houston, Age: 24
García was the Astros’ No. 3 prospect going into 2020, but hadn’t pitched above High A, so there wasn’t much reason to expect him in the majors last year … but debut he did, making one start and four relief appearances for Houston in September. He was 93-97 in the big leagues with a plus slider and plus-plus changeup, although he pitched mostly off the fastball. He threw 37 changeups in the big leagues and hitters swung and missed at 10 of them, a 27 percent rate that’s higher than Zach Davies got on his changeup (the most valuable changeup from any starter, per FanGraphs) and close to the rate Devin Williams got on his (30 percent). García has to throw more strikes, although he didn’t work too much in the heart of the strike zone. All three of his pitches could be plus, especially with good vertical movement on the four-seamer, and whether he starts will be a function of his ability to execute a plan and cut his walk rate. That may mean another year in the minors, or an internship in the Astros’ bullpen, before he joins the rotation permanently.
68. Ivan Herrera, C, St. Louis, Age: 21
Herrera is the heir apparent behind the plate in St. Louis, even with Andrew Knizner, a very capable hitter, ahead of him on the depth chart, as Herrera has more potential on both sides of the ball. Signed out of Panama in 2016, Herrera has an excellent approach at the plate, rarely striking out and working the count well to try to get to pitches he can drive. He can really throw, a credit to the Cardinals’ development staff after they worked with him on arm strength and his throwing motion, nabbing 33 percent of opposing runners since he entered pro ball, and when playing in the Mexican Winter League this offseason he threw out 11 of 21 for a 52 percent success rate. He continues to improve behind the plate to the point where he’s going to be an asset on both sides of the ball, and I still believe there’s more power in this bat that we may not see for a few more years.
69. Shane Baz, RHP, Tampa Bay, Age: 22
Baz has the pure stuff to be a No. 1 starter but needs to work on the non-stuff aspects of pitching to get there, so he’s probably one of the guys most hurt by a lost season where he didn’t get reps facing live hitters in games. He did spend the summer at the Rays’ alternate site, where he was one of the youngest guys there, and still showed the same quality of pitches as before. He’s hit 100 in the past and can hold 95-97 as a starter, with a power slider that will probably end up in the 88-90 range and hit 92 in a relief outing in the AFL in 2019. He does need to improve his changeup, the weakest offering he has, although he gets good fading action on the pitch, and he definitely has to improve his command and control, which isn’t helped by the fact that his arm is late relative to his landing. He gets huge spin rates on his fastball and both breaking balls, and he’s going to miss bats in any role. Whether he’s a starter will depend on his getting into games and showing improvement in his command and feel to pitch.
70. William Contreras, C, Atlanta, Age: 23
Contreras got a cup of coffee in 2020, going 4 for 10 in four games, despite having just 60 games above A ball coming into the season. He’s an exceptional athlete with good strength, moving better than you might expect from his stocky build. He’s got a great, easy swing with good follow-through that generates hard contact, and despite being young for his levels he’s posted low strikeout rates. Atlanta has had him work with catching instructor Sal Fasano, and Contreras has come a long way in his defensive skills, where he might end up an above-average defender there. The bat is the part that’s special, where he might become a star, and he’ll probably go to Triple A now at age 23, so he’ll be around the right age for his level for the first time and we should see more of that hard contact turn into doubles and home run power.
71. Seth Corry, LHP, San Francisco, Age: 22
Corry is a high-upside lefty who has started to fill out physically and now has to finish developing as a pitcher to get to his ceiling as a potential No. 2 starter. He’s now pitching at 94-96 and the curveball is plus, although he doesn’t command the pitch well enough yet, and has improved his changeup enough to talk about him as a starter long term. He’s getting stronger and has shortened his arm stroke since high school, allowing him to repeat it more and giving him a little more deception. He may never have above-average control, but could get to average and succeed because his pure stuff will miss bats in the zone. Corry was unhittable in the second half of 2019, after he brought his walk rate down, with a 1.18 ERA in 68.2 innings, 18 walks and 92 strikeouts. He still wasn’t throwing a ton of strikes, but threw enough, especially when behind in the count, to let the quality of his stuff take over. That’s what we’re looking for when games resume as a measure of how likely he is to get to that upside.
72. Brailyn Márquez, LHP, Chicago Cubs, Age: 22
Márquez’s major-league debut didn’t quite go as planned, but he remains the Cubs’ top pitching prospect, with the upside of a top-end starter or similarly high-impact closer. He can hit 101 and averaged 98 in that one major-league outing, with a wipeout slider that’s going to make left-handed hitters’ lives extremely difficult. He does have a changeup that has improved in the last few years, although it’s still a clear third pitch for him and he may always show a modest platoon split. The main concern I have on Márquez is his delivery, which is tough for him to repeat because of the way he spins off his front heel, how late his arm is relative to when his front foot lands, and his tendency to let his arm slot drift downward, all of which put his command at risk and may lead to a bullpen role in the future. In short bursts, however, he could be one of the best relievers in baseball, with stuff that may rival Aroldis Chapman’s from the same side.
73. Quinn Priester, RHP, Pittsburgh, Age: 20
Priester was the first high school pitcher selected in the 2019 draft and was dominant in instructional league this past fall, bumping 97 in an outing where he faced the first high school pitcher selected in the 2020 draft, Philadelphia’s Mick Abel. Priester was mostly a fastball/curveball guy in high school, with the curveball projecting to plus, but the Pirates have added a slider that shows some promise and have had him use his changeup more, since he barely needed it in high school. He’s got a great frame with broad shoulders and is already starting to fill out; while his delivery was already good in high school, with a repeatable arm action and good use of his lower half to generate velocity. High school pitchers are a risky bunch, but this is exactly where you’d want such a prospect to be 18 months out of the draft, and if he keeps getting stronger his ceiling might be higher than I previously thought.
74. Michael Busch, 2B/1B, LA Dodgers, Age: 23
Busch was a first baseman at the University of North Carolina when the Dodgers took him in the first round in 2019, but they had seen him play a little bit of second base on the Cape before that and decided to try him at the position after he signed. He’s looked OK over there, enough that the Dodgers plan to keep him at the keystone going forward, where his hit tool gives him a chance to become an All-Star. Busch can really hit, with a fast bat and rotational swing that generates strong contact, although he didn’t hit for average while he was with the Tar Heels. He was a high-walk guy in college and could be an impact regular even just as a walks/power guy, but I think he’s going to hit for average as well. We’ll see how his glove looks at second when he’s playing at game speed, but there’s some unexpected upside here now that he’s moved to a harder position.
75. Diego Cartaya, C, LA Dodgers, Age: 19
Cartaya might be a top-50 prospect if he’d had a summer of performance – and of scouts seeing him – but the Dodgers have seen him, and seem to like him enough that they’re willing to discuss Keibert Ruiz in just about every major trade proposal. Cartaya is an advanced hitter for his age with tremendous bat speed and plus power, potentially a 30-homer guy who’ll also hit for average because of how well he can go the other way. He’s improving behind the plate, with the tools to end up above-average there and a plus arm, playing with a lot of energy and setting a good target for pitchers. Like any teenage prospect learning a skill position, he needs reps in game settings, although at least in the alternate site he could catch major-league quality stuff. With a strong season in 2021 that proves he’s the hitter he appears to be, he’ll be much higher in everyone’s estimation.
76. George Valera, OF, Cleveland, Age: 20
Valera missed most of 2018 with a broken hamate bone in his hand and didn’t seem completely recovered when he returned to play the following summer, although he was also very young for the New York-Penn League (may it rest in peace) and still showed great promise in the power department. Valera was healthy for all of 2020 and even came to Cleveland’s alternate site as a 19-year-old, then showed off in instructional league with a beautiful swing that produced hard contact and plus-plus power. He can really hit a fastball already but tends to chase stuff out of the zone too often, something that may improve as he’s facing more pitchers who are around the plate and he gets more pitches he can square up. On defense, he’s adequate in a corner, but could get to above-average with the right instruction. He’s a flashy player, but that’s great if you can bring it, which Valera certainly can, with 30-homer upside and the potential to hit for a high average even if he continues to swing and miss.
77. Ryan Weathers, LHP, San Diego, Age: 21
When the Padres took Weathers with the seventh overall pick in 2018, it was a function of his polish as a starter rather than the projection you’d associate with a high school arm or a typical Padres draft pick, and in 2019 his fastball had backed up so it was barely major-league average. In 2020, however, his stuff took a big jump forward, and he was working at 95-97 over the summer, holding that into his major-league debut in the playoff series (another one of the Mark Kiger All-Stars) against the Dodgers. Weathers, the son of longtime big leaguer David, has four pitches, with his changeup his best secondary offering, and his slider improved as his arm has sped up. He’s always been a strike-thrower who projected to get to above-average or better command. Weathers does have his dad’s physique, and will have to work on his conditioning as he gets older. I don’t know if Weathers will really pitch at 95+ as a starter going forward, but even if he’s 92-95 with the improved slider and the same command/control, that’s at least a mid-rotation starter.
78. Tyler Freeman, SS, Cleveland, Age: 22
Freeman has filled out some more since we last saw him in games, which does help address one of the biggest concerns about him as a hitter – whether he’d be strong enough to keep hitting the ball hard and thus hold up his consistently strong batting averages. Freeman rarely strikes out, with just 87 strikeouts so far in 997 pro plate appearances, and is a solid-average to tick above-average runner who plays a competent shortstop but will probably end up at second base, especially in a system with so many superior defenders at short. Everything Freeman does plays up because he shows such good instincts and feel for the game, earning the dreaded “ballplayer” tag from scouts and coaches (as if the other kids on the field are not also ballplayers, which would create a substantial ontological dilemma for those of us who evaluate the sport for a living). I don’t think this swing is going to generate power, but he looks like he’ll hit .300+ consistently with solid OBPs, average defense at short or plus defense at second, and a little added value on the bases as well.
79. Alek Manoah, RHP, Toronto, Age: 23
Manoah was the top college right-hander in the 2019 draft but the Blue Jays got him with the 11th pick on some concerns about his size and minor health issues before his draft year. It looks like a steal now as Manoah continues to stay healthy and throw hard, while improving his conditioning over the course of 2020 and the last two offseasons. Manoah sits 93-94 and can touch 98, with an above-average slider and above-average changeup as well as a curveball he can land for strikes. He is big, 6-6 and 260 in college, and only pitches from the stretch, but he throws strikes and attacks guys consistently with his fastball, an approach that should continue to serve him well as he moves up the ladder. He does have to keep his body in shape, but if he stays healthy he should be in the Blue Jays’ rotation within the next two seasons, with mid-rotation upside.
Keibert Ruiz (Mark J. Rebilas / USA Today)
80. Keibert Ruiz, C, LA Dodgers, Age: 22
Ruiz made his major-league debut in 2020, hitting his first big-league homer, and earned rave reviews from how well he hit at the Dodgers’ alternate site, although we still have to see him do that in games. Ruiz has always been a great hitter for contact, with a career strikeout rate under 10 percent in pro ball, but hasn’t translated that contact into any in-game power yet. The Dodgers, who have an excellent track record of altering swings to improve launch angle (Max Muncy, Chris Taylor, Will Smith), are working with him to generate more leverage at the plate. He’s an adequate receiver with a fringy arm, but does enough behind the plate to stay at the position, where his potential high batting average/moderate power/low strikeout bat would make him an above-average regular.
81. Deivi García, RHP, NY Yankees, Age: 22
The little right-hander who could, García brought his four-pitch mix and very deceptive delivery to the majors last year and continued to miss bats with all three of his secondary pitches, even though it just doesn’t look like he should be as good as he is. García will pitch at 90-95 with his four-seamer, which doesn’t have great spin but does drop more than the typical four-seamer does, and hitters cut right through it like he’s throwing 100. They don’t pick up the ball well out of his hand; his fastball, changeup and slider all come from about the same slot, but go to different parts of the zone in addition to being different pitches entirely, and he gets a lot of swings and misses on all three secondary offerings (he does raise his arm slot just slightly to get on top of the curveball). He is on the small side for a starter, listed at 163 pounds, and when hitters do connect with his four-seamer they tend to hit it hard, but maybe he’s just a great twice-through-the-order starter or a “five and dive” guy who can regularly strike out seven or eight batters in those five innings of work.
82. Ryan Rolison, LHP, Colorado, Age: 23
Rolison is the Rockies’ top pitching prospect and also the closest to the majors of their potential starters, so there’s a good chance we’ll see him in Coors Field in 2021. Rolison pitches at 92-94 with a plus curveball that is an out pitch against left-handed batters and good enough to help get right-handers as well, and he’s refined his changeup since we last saw him in games. He also throws a slider that’s more of a fourth pitch but gives him a second option against lefties. The Rockies have done a great job cleaning up Rolison’s delivery, taking him from a cross-fire arm action when they drafted him to getting him online to the plate so he can pitch to his glove side and improve his chances to stay healthy. He’s a solid fourth starter now but could be an above-average one if he develops that changeup to an above-average pitch.
83. Jhoan Duran, RHP, Minnesota, Age: 23
Duran is best known for his unusual out pitch, a splitter-sinker hybrid that carries the awkward “splinker” moniker, but he’s got enough of a complete arsenal that he’s more than just a one-pitch guy who’ll have to go to the bullpen. He’s 95-99 with his four-seamer and his curveball can be plus, although he doesn’t land the breaking ball as often as he will probably need to do in the majors. He has starter size, listed at 6-5, 230, and his delivery should allow him to start as long as he maintains his tempo and avoids rushing through it, especially the way he gets on top of the ball to take advantage of his height. He has less probability to start than his Twins teammate Jordan Balazovic, but has the better swing-and-miss pitch in that splinker, and might be closer to helping in the majors because that pitch can carry him as he works on the breaking ball and on improving his control and command.
84. A.J. Puk, LHP, Oakland, Age: 26
Puk and Jesús Luzardo seemed to be tied at the hip as they marched toward the majors in 2019, both with troublesome injury histories and premium stuff, but Luzardo stayed healthy enough to pitch a full season in 2020 while Puk had to have surgery on his shoulder. The procedure was supposedly minimal, cleaning out the joint, and his rehab is apparently going very well, so he’s still Oakland’s top prospect. Puk was sitting 97 in relief in the majors in 2019, with a power slider up to 90 mph, and his changeup was actually the better of his two offspeed pitches. The A’s reworked his delivery after drafting him to make better use of his 6-foot-7 frame, getting him to finish better over his front side, and he seemed on track to be an above-average starter even with what would probably be fringy command in the end. If his stuff is intact after the latest operation, that’s still his ceiling.
85. Heston Kjerstad, OF, Baltimore, Age: 22
The Orioles took Kjerstad, an outfielder at the University of Arkansas, with the second overall pick in 2020, cutting an under-slot deal with him so they could overpay two high school players in the fourth and fifth rounds. Kjerstad has a big bat with excellent hand acceleration and history of hard contact … when he makes contact, which has been an issue for him in the past when facing better competition in the SEC. He’s a capable right fielder who should be no worse than average with the glove, although he played some first base in college as well. There’s some noise early in his approach at the plate, which may be behind the swing and miss, but when he squares something up he hits the ball hard, with 30-homer power to go with what will likely be a 25 percent strikeout rate or more.
86. Nolan Jones, 3B, Cleveland, Age: 23
Jones looks like a good three true outcomes hitter in the making, running deep counts already with high walk totals (96 in 2019), showing some power now but with much more projected now that he’s 22 and filling out physically. He doesn’t show much of a two-strike approach, keeping the same swing even when behind in the count, relying more on his strong ball/strike recognition to allow him to get to something he thinks he can drive. Jones’ main concern is that he doesn’t hit left-handed pitching at all; across 2018 and 2019, he had 250 PA against lefties, and hit just .167/.316/.286 with a 36 percent strikeout rate. That can improve, but it hasn’t yet, and he was worse in 2019 than 2018. He’s the kind of player who will probably be more hurt by the lost year in 2020, because this will only get better with more repetitions against the very pitchers he can’t hit. There’s also some concern that he won’t stay at third base, potentially ending up in right field, although that’s likely to be more driven by who’s ahead of him (e.g., José Ramírez) than by his defense, as he can play a capable hot corner already. At third base, with the 25-homer power I expect from him and high walk totals, he’d be an above-average regular — but he has to start to hit lefties in the next year or two to keep that ceiling in play.
87. Triston Casas, 1B, Boston, Age: 21
Casas was the Red Sox’s first-round pick in 2018 based on their belief that he was an advanced bat with power potential who would play even at first base. Casas lets the ball travel deep at the plate, helping him control the zone, and worked on handling hard stuff on the inner half over the summer at Boston’s alternate site. When he rotates his hips, he can show big power, especially to his pull side, although he showed vulnerability on fastballs up in the zone in 2019, something he worked on over the summer. He has a clear two-strike approach, unusual for a teenage hitter and even more so for hitters today, where he gets very wide and shortens up to put the ball in play at the expense of some power. The Red Sox have tinkered with him at third base, but that’s a longshot to be more than an emergency option. If his bat is what they think it is, and he can continue to hit for power and draw walks as he did in 2019, he’ll profile just fine over at first.
88. Jonathan India, 3B, Cincinnati, Age: 24
The baseball world gave up on India after a terrible 2019 season at the plate where he tried to play through a wrist injury he suffered in April, but in 2020 he looked like he had all his hand strength back and was hitting the ball harder all summer at the Reds’ alternate site. India came out of nowhere to have a huge junior year at the University of Florida that moved him from something like second- or third-round status all the way up to the fifth pick in 2018. He was always seen as an instinctive, tough player who would get the most out of his tools, but it wasn’t until that spring that he showed he could drive the ball for extra-base hits, with 21 homers for the Gators before the draft, although in pro ball with wood bats that will probably look more like 35 doubles and 15 homers. He’s an above-average defender at third who could certainly move to second and handle short in a pinch. If the Reds decide to move Eugenio Suárez’s contract at some point, it could be in part because of their faith that India will man one of those two infield spots by the end of this year.
89. JJ Bleday, OF, Miami, Age: 23
Bleday was the fourth overall pick in the 2019 draft, coming off a spring where he led Division I hitters with 27 homers despite playing in the SEC. Bleday is athletic for a big corner outfielder, moving well for his size with a plus arm, and at the plate he has quick hands and a disciplined approach that should let him race through the low minors (if such a thing still exists). He had a substantial hand hitch in college, which led to some concerns about his ability to hit with a wood bat against better pitching, but the Marlins have worked with him to reduce the size of that hitch, and there are certainly big-league hitters who’ve hit despite such mechanical issues – Hunter Pence comes to mind – because they had quick wrists and great hand-eye coordination. Bleday seems to have those things, and while he’s going to have to work on hitting left-handed pitching, he has the power and patience already to project as a middle-of-the-order bat who adds value on defense in right.
90. Matt Allan, RHP, NY Mets, Age: 20
The Mets went all in on Allan in the 2019 draft, taking him in the third round and giving him most of the remaining money in their bonus pool that year, going under slot with their picks in the rest of the top 10 rounds because of their belief that they were getting a first-round arm. So far that appears to be the case, as Allan has looked like a potential No. 1 starter. He’ll pitch at 92-95 with more in the tank and his curveball is at least a 60 already, a power pitch with tight, downward break, along with a much-improved changeup that had left-handed batters in Mets camp raving. His four-seamer can play down a bit below his velocity, but he’ll get a lot of outs with the secondary stuff and isn’t afraid to attack hitters with all of his weapons. He’s probably more of a No. 2 starter than an ace, with all the risks associated with a pitcher who will pitch all of this year at age 20.
91. Geraldo Perdomo, SS, Arizona, Age: 21
Perdomo is a no-doubt shortstop with outstanding instincts for his age, showing it on both sides of the ball with great strike zone knowledge and excellent reads and actions on defense. He’s a very disciplined hitter who has gotten a little bit stronger but needs to keep adding muscle so he can convert all that contact into more impact; he’s starting to drive the ball now but can turn that into more extra-base hits and some home runs when he fills out his 6-foot-2 frame. He’s an average runner with a plus arm and those aforementioned instincts, so he projects as a plus defender at short. The Diamondbacks rave about his makeup and feel for the game, giving more reason to think he’ll get the most of his tools; we’re just waiting on that physical projection to come through to see if he’ll be a regular or make enough hard contact to become a star.
92. Alejandro Kirk, C, Toronto, Age: 22
Kirk got a surprise call-up to the majors and was very impressive for a kid who’d never played above High A, and had just 151 professional games total before he reached the big leagues. His bat-to-ball skill and swing decisions are both excellent, leading to very low strikeout rates, while he’s got explosive acceleration at the plate and showed in the majors he can hit for power the other way and turn on 97 in. He’s a solid catcher who can frame, block and throw well, but he’s on the big side already for a catcher at age 22 and has to maintain his conditioning. He was listed at 5-8 and 265 pounds last year, and while he’s apparently lost weight heading into spring training, that’s going to be an ongoing issue for him so he can stay behind the plate, as there’s no other position for a player with his build. His bat will make him a longtime regular as a catcher, with a chance to be a star if he keeps his body in shape for it.
Jarren Duran (Reinhold Matay / USA Today)
93. Jarren Duran, OF, Boston, Age: 24
Duran changed his swing in 2020 to drive the ball more in the air, addressing what I thought was the big issue with his outlook: He struck out too much for a guy who wasn’t hitting for power or making consistent hard contact. Duran is a 70 runner who is a plus defender in center and might end up a 70 out there as well, while at the plate he has been a good singles hitter so far in pro ball, but with an isolated power of just .105 in 2019 between High A and Double A at age 22. Now that he’s lofting the ball more, and has gotten stronger, he should at least see double digits in homers and more doubles (and triples, thanks to his speed) that will balance out any swing and miss he’s likely to have. We’ll see how well it carries over into games, but it’s enough to change his outlook from someone outside the top 100 in 2020 to on the list now.
94. Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF, NY Mets, Age: 19
Crow-Armstrong went to the same high school baseball factory, Harvard-Westlake, that gave us Lucas Giolito, Max Fried and Jack Flaherty, and boosted his draft stock last spring before the shutdown by getting stronger in the offseason and starting the season very well before the pandemic ended it. Crow-Armstrong is a future 70 defender in center with a plus arm, and a 60 runner with good instincts on the bases. At the plate, he has good feel to hit with bat speed, although his front side can go soft and he’s shown more swing and miss, including at showcase events, than you want from a player of this profile. He’s also faced better pitching in his amateur career than most high school kids, which could be skewing that last variable. He has a high floor because of his glove and speed; if he firms up that front side he could also become a great lead-off hitter with high averages and OBPs to go with the plus defense.
95. Garrett Mitchell, OF, Milwaukee, Age: 22
Mitchell had the tools to go in the top 10 in the 2020 draft, but he’s a type 1 diabetic and many executives were uncomfortable using a high pick on a position player with that condition. (There have been several MLB pitchers with type 1 diabetes, including Brandon Morrow, who was himself a top 10 overall pick in 2006.) Mitchell is at least a 70 runner with plus range in center, and he has good hand-eye coordination, rarely striking out in college but often mistiming so that he doesn’t always hit the ball as hard as he should. I said at the time of the draft that his defense and speed would make him a regular even with just a 45 hit tool and 45 power, which is still a realistic projection for him. If he gets that timing issue at the plate worked out, and can use his speed more out of the box, he could get to a 55 hit tool and be a borderline star.
96. Brice Turang, SS, Milwaukee, Age: 21
Turang spent the summer at the Brewers’ alternate site and logged a lot of at-bats against the Brewers’ best left-handed pitching prospects, including hard-throwing Antoine Kelly and the more polished Aaron Ashby, looking good even against their better breaking stuff. Turang is starting to drive the ball out to the gaps more even though he probably has another 10-15 pounds to gain, probably profiling as a low-average power hitter once he’s filled out, with average bat speed but a history in high school of showing good rotation and loft in his finish to eventually hit for more power. He’s a plus defender at short and a plus runner who has excellent instincts on the bases. We’ll see what type of hitter he is in games this year — he was a high-contact guy in 2019, a more strikeout-prone guy with some more power in high school — but either way he’d project as a solid regular or more at a position where any offense is a bonus.
97. Taylor Trammell, OF, Seattle, Age: 23
Trammell has now been traded twice, going from the Padres to the Mariners this past summer in a deal that brought catcher Austin Nola and two relievers to San Diego, and between the two trades and the lack of a minor league season, his development has slowed. Trammell has great feel for the game, showing it in particular on defense where he should be a plus or better defender in left, with the range and reads to play center but probably not the arm for it. He has plus raw power and makes hard contact, but over the past two years it’s become more evident that his hit tool isn’t as advanced as it appeared off his breakout year in 2018, even though he’s shown good ball/strike recognition. He’s received raves from all three organizations for his makeup and work ethic, and has the physical tools to become a star, but needs more at bats, maybe even to repeat Double A, to convert that strike zone command and hard contact skill into higher batting averages so the power can play.
98. Orelvis Martinez, SS, Toronto, Age: 19
Martinez is still just 19 but finished the summer at the Blue Jays’ alternate site, impressing the team with his production against older pitching. The ball explodes off his bat thanks to his plus bat speed and present power, while he has already shown glimpses of advanced plate discipline. In the field, he’s got a plus arm and great hands, still playing shortstop but with a body that might eventually push him to third base. I noted last winter that he might be the Jays’ best prospect in a year, but with no minor league season to show progress and the addition of the best player in the 2020 draft in Austin Martin, Martinez has to wait a year for any such coronation. He has an enormous ceiling as a strong OBP guy with 25-30 homers and plus defense at third. We just need to see how the bat plays at higher levels.
99. Brayan Rocchio, SS, Cleveland, Age: 20
Rocchio is on the smaller side, but he does just about everything well and gets some comparisons to Francisco Lindor, although Lindor was a more polished hitter at 20 than Rocchio is. Rocchio has a very good eye at the plate and above-average speed on the bases, giving him a good chance to stay at shortstop in the long term. He’s a switch-hitter, with a slightly better swing from the left side, staying back on the ball more than he does when hitting right-handed, although both swings are very direct to the ball. He just may hit for some power left-handed because he rotates more and transfers his weight more with contact. Rocchio was unable to come from his native Venezuela to the U.S. in 2020 due to the pandemic, so unfortunately he’s missed even more time than most prospects, so he may be a year behind some of his short-season teammates from last year, but he still above-average or better upside as a high-OBP shortstop who might get to 15 homers or more.
100. Nick Lodolo, LHP, Cincinnati, Age: 23
Lodolo is close to the majors at this point, a lower-ceiling starter who should pitch in the majors for a long time with a fairly safe floor. He’s working at 90-94 now with two breaking balls, including a hard slider that breaks well away from left-handed hitters and works as a chase pitch, while he’s developing the changeup he’ll need to keep getting right-handers out as he faces better competition. Lodolo comes from a low three-quarter slot that makes him really tough on lefties, with good extension that so far has given him an edge against right-handed batters even without an average changeup. He’s probably a fourth starter in the end but could also have value right now in the bullpen as a left-on-left guy or long man while he works on developing that fourth pitch.
(Top photos: Wander Franco, center, and clockwise from top left, Jarred Kelenic, Nate Pearson, Cristian Pache and MacKenzie Gore / Getty Images)