Lindor, Bieber, trades, the name change, payroll and hope: Meisel’s Mega-Mailbag


By Zack Meisel 30m ago 1


CLEVELAND — It’s the end of a trying year. Let’s empty the mailbag and move forward into 2021. Without further ado …

Do you have any guesses as to the theme of the name change? A historical team name, like Buckeyes/Spiders/Naps? Something related to the city of Cleveland, like Guardians/Lakers/Rockers? A naval theme to coincide with Clippers/Captains? And should we expect a new color scheme too? — Ethan P.

Everything is just a guess at this point. I don’t think Paul Dolan knows yet what the new name will be. He noted that the “multiphased process” of selecting a name and developing a new brand will be “complex and will take time.” They’ll keep all information about it close to the vest, as they always have with this topic. I’m sure there’s a Word document full of possible choices on some employee’s laptop. They’ll be exhaustive and discuss every option. They’ll scour social media and attempt to gauge fans’ stances on each candidate. Perhaps they’ll even involve the fans in some capacity. But it’s early in the process. I don’t anticipate any clarity on this for a while.

(For what it’s worth, Commodores, Hazards, Lake Effect and Wild Things are growing on me. Figuratively, that is.)

[Send in your idea for a new nickname for a chance to win an extension to your subscription!]

With the recent trades the Tribe has made with the Padres where Francisco Mejia and Mike Clevinger were sent to San Diego, do you think the Padres even take the Indians’ calls in the future? I’d imagine any MLB GM would say they want trades to be a win-win for both teams since they’d hope to work together in the future. How many times will a team get fleeced by another before they stop even taking their calls? — Andy G.

Well, if you get burned often enough, you won’t be the one taking those calls, but that doesn’t apply here. There are certainly front offices across the league that teams know they might be able to outwit, but they have dwindled in recent years. Teams have become more protective of prospects and just more intelligent in general. There used to be a greater information divide, but now all teams have access to a ton of data that they can use to evaluate players. It’s much less common today for two teams to view a player in greatly contrasting ways than it was, say, 20 years ago.

The two trades you reference wouldn’t hinder any future discussions between Cleveland and San Diego. The Indians weren’t confident in Mejia’s defense, but anyone with eyeballs saw him developing into a skilled big-league hitter. It hasn’t translated yet, and he’s now en route to Tampa, but he still hasn’t logged a full season’s worth of plate appearances. As for Clevinger, the trade obviously looks better for Cleveland since he’ll miss the 2021 season and the outlook for pitchers who have endured two Tommy John surgeries is rather bleak. But the Padres needed a front-line starter, and they didn’t surrender any of their elite prospects to the Indians.

History plays a significant role in these negotiations. Some GMs have deeper relationships that can push conversations along. Teams that have regularly worked together know each other’s systems better and have a clearer understanding of the players in question. At this point, the Indians should be as familiar with the Padres’ and Reds’ systems as they are with their own.

Do you believe the shortened 2020 season will have an impact on the number of innings our starters can realistically toss next year? I heard 200 innings may be a bit harder than normal to achieve. If this is true, it once again bodes well that we have such a deep rotation. How many innings did our starters throw last year? – Alex J.

It’s something the coaching staff and front office have started to discuss as their pitchers initiate their offseason throwing regimens. The one, prevailing rule is that workloads will be dependent on the individual. There won’t be some blanket rule applied to everyone. If Shane Bieber’s right arm can withstand a typical ramp-up and a 200-inning season, then Terry Francona and Carl Willis won’t stop him. If it makes sense for Triston McKenzie to start the season at Triple A and be eased into the schedule, they’ll manage him accordingly.

I asked Francona about this recently and he mentioned two “schools of thought.” The first: “You need to ramp up guys carefully next year because they had a limited amount of work last year.” The second: “Well, they saved some bullets.” Francona said they’ll monitor pitchers’ strength and mobility and avoid “putting an artificial limit on them.”

The Indians’ starting pitching depth will help. They can stick an extra starter in the bullpen or even roll with a six-man rotation early on, and they’ll always have an option or two or three ready to be summoned from Triple A. Cleveland’s starters logged an MLB-high 349 2/3 innings in 2020, with the gap between them and the second-ranked Cubs about the same as the gap between the Cubs and the ninth-ranked team.


Where will Francisco Lindor play in 2021? (Harrison Barden / Getty Images)
In a trade involving Francisco Lindor, will the Indians be including a starting pitcher to receive a better package, or would the Indians prefer to trade a starting pitcher separately to fill their holes in their roster? Are the Blue Jays still the favorites? Is there a reason in the rumors on the return for Lindor that the Indians receive a middle infielder? It seems the Indians have a few middle infielders on their top-prospects list. — Gil R.

When does the Lindor trade happen in your opinion? Are we still early in this process? Is this something that won’t come until much closer to spring training? I really like Lindor to the Jays — prospect depth is good and they have expendable MLB pieces. — Wes M.

Welcome to Lindor Central, your one-stop shop for answers about the team’s star shortstop. Let’s begin by reviewing why it’s so dang tricky for the Indians to deal away a player held in such high regard.

1. Other teams don’t know if they’re acquiring Lindor only for 2021, or if he would sign a long-term extension. There’s, obviously, a significant difference in value between a decade of a perennial All-Star and a one-year rental.

2. There are a handful of solid alternatives on the free-agent market. Eventually, Didi Gregorius, Marcus Semien and Andrelton Simmons will sign with teams and shrink the number of Lindor suitors.

3. There are teams that would gladly pay Lindor $20 million for the 2021 season. There are teams that would have no issue forking over a couple of prospects for Lindor. There are teams eyeing an upgrade at shortstop. There is not, however, a long list of teams that check all three boxes. The Reds, for example, would make more sense if they weren’t desperately attempting to shed payroll.

4. Every team conversing with the Indians about Lindor will ask this question: Why execute this trade now, especially with the dynamics of the 2021 season (and impending CBA negotiations) still shrouded in uncertainty, when there might be five star shortstops available in free agency next winter? Lindor, Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Trevor Story and Javy Baez could all hit the open market.

The Mets fit as a trade partner because their new owner has deep pockets and a heightened sense of urgency to win, but they could simply opt to sign, say, George Springer this winter and land one of those shortstops next winter. The Blue Jays are a sensible match — as examined here — but does a young, up-and-coming team want to part with some of that youth and gamble that Lindor will want to stick around beyond the one season?

This is a perfect storm of complicating circumstances. It should never be this challenging to trade such a gifted player, a marketing director’s dream who excels at a premium position on the diamond. I expect that rumors will start gusting in the coming weeks. You’ll hear the term “mystery team” at least once. There might be rumblings that the Indians are willing to pair Lindor with a starting pitcher. And Chris Antonetti and Mike Chernoff will exhaust their phone batteries attempting to retrieve something of value for the face of Cleveland’s franchise.

Since the Angels need pitching and have a couple of high-end outfield prospects in Brandon Marsh and Jo Adell, do you think we could match up as trade partners? — Jason C.

The Angels made a ton of sense until they traded for Jose Iglesias a few weeks ago. He’s a solid one-year stopgap until next winter, when the Angels could pounce on one of those free agents as Albert Pujols’ contract comes off the books. (Plus, Justin Upton’s megadeal expires a year later.) The Indians, of course, would love Adell or Marsh, two of the top outfield prospects in the sport.

Does Dave Dombrowski becoming president of baseball operations for the Phillies increase the possibility of a Lindor trade to Philadelphia given his reputation for spending money to bring in marquee players? — Jay M.

I’d think there would be some dialogue, but it’s probably not the best match. The Phillies’ most attractive trade pieces are either major league-ready (and part of their immediate plans), like third baseman Alec Bohm and pitcher Spencer Howard, or they barely have a professional track record (like shortstop Bryson Stott or pitcher Erik Miller, for instance, who were drafted in 2019 and have limited minor-league experience). That said, with Dombrowski, there’s always a chance to work something out. He’s trying to win a World Series yesterday. Their prospects should rent, not buy.

Which do you think comes first, the Lindor trade or free-agent acquisition(s)? — Michael J.

I’d think the trade, so the team would have a clearer view of who it should target with its limited free-agent budget. A week after the club dealt Corey Kluber last December, it signed César Hernández. Everything is moving at the speed of a glob of honey escaping a jar. The Indians should be able to pluck one of the many available middle infielders from free agency in January or February. I’d imagine they ship out Lindor before they do.

I know it’s a tightrope, but for an organization that prides itself on being ahead of the curve, did it surprise you that they didn’t trade Lindor earlier to significantly increase the haul? Comparing the names now to a one-time proposal for Gavin Lux is a huge bummer. — Brian R.

Timing is everything, especially for a front office attempting to balance short-term contention and long-term sustainability. That was my takeaway in my one-year-later review of the Kluber trade a couple of weeks ago. They’re careful not to trade guys too early and jeopardize their immediate ability to contend, but for the sake of the organization’s long-term health, they can’t afford to trade guys after their value has dramatically decreased. Pinpointing that perfect moment to capitalize on a player’s trade value likely costs Antonetti and Chernoff some sleep. It’s why you often hear players’ names pop up in trade rumors months or years before they’re actually dealt.

With Lindor, they obviously couldn’t anticipate a pandemic flipping the 2020 season (and offseason) on its head. Surely, knowing what they know now, they would have dealt him last winter. At the time, they just never received an offer they couldn’t refuse.

At this point, with this market and the return likely to be low for Lindor, would any thought be given to letting him play out one more year here before letting him walk? Or is the idea more about getting his money off the books now instead of getting value? — Baric N.

All indications are they will do everything they can to trade him. The problem is, as illustrated above, they don’t have much leverage. They could keep him for a year and take the draft pick compensation when he leaves, but there’s no “keep him and go for it once more” type plan. They haven’t addressed certain glaring holes around him in recent years, and they certainly aren’t going to do that now on a shoestring budget.

Here’s a question about a topic other than the Tribe’s name, payroll or trade candidates: the universal DH. It seems like such an obvious move. In 2019, pitchers hit .128/.160/.162. What would be good for the game would be for the best of the best (pitchers) to get outs against the best of the best (hitters). So why can’t owners agree to implementation? It’s a no-brainer of a rule change. — David B.

Nothing can ever be implemented or altered without some sort of stipulation, it seems. I’ve been a proponent of the universal DH ever since I learned those letters’ placement in the alphabet. I can appreciate those who cling to the “additional strategy” of double switches and well-timed substitutions, but to have completely different rules in the two leagues has never made sense, and if we’re choosing one set of guidelines, we’re picking the one that doesn’t include people who never practice hitting attempting to swat a 101 mph fastball from Jacob deGrom.

Pitchers continue to get better at pitching and worse at hitting. Every year, there are hurlers who haven’t touched a Louisville Slugger since high school who are required to stand in against a guy who throws a 92 mph slider that Johnny Bench would struggle to hit, let alone Johnny Cueto. Give me extra action, not three guaranteed strikeouts or bunts each game.

I get there was no room for Jefry Rodriguez in Cleveland, but it sure seemed like he’s capable of being at the back of somebody’s rotation (maybe Washington’s, obviously). Does a player like him really have no value in a trade at the present time? — Chris H.

Since he last logged more than just a mop-up inning or two, Rodriguez has spent time on the injured list and overhauled his delivery, so his trade value was quite depressed. He just hasn’t pitched much in two years, and it’s not as though he was a can’t-miss prospect prior to 2019. The Indians non-tendered him to clear a spot on their 40-man roster. They did have interest in retaining him on a minor-league deal, but he opted to return to the Nationals.

Do you get the sense that Nolan Jones is destined for a June call-up? I’m assuming that it won’t be earlier due to clock-suppression concerns. — Quincy W.

That sounds about right. They’ll want to give him time to polish his outfield glove anyway. Antonetti and Chernoff said the basis for increasing his defensive versatility was to forge a quicker path to the majors, since they prefer not to shift José Ramírez off third base. So, I have to imagine that would mean a summer promotion should all go well for a couple of months in Columbus.


The Indians control Shane Bieber for four more seasons. (Jamie Squire / Getty Images)
Will the Indians have contract extension talks with Shane Bieber? Will it continue to be the philosophy to buy out the arbitration years of good, young core players, or will this be something that shifts moving forward? — Dennis Q.

That’s still their philosophy, but it follows an individual basis, and Bieber has a shiny piece of leverage resting in a display case at his residence. The Indians would love not only to buy out his arbitration years but also a free-agent year or two, with the benefit to Bieber being immediate financial security.

But since Bieber has established himself as one of the top pitchers on the planet, he might prefer to bet on himself. He’ll earn boatloads of cash in arbitration starting next winter. He stands four seasons shy of free agency and, provided he remains healthy and productive, he would figure to land a lucrative, long-term deal at the age of 29. That’s a long way (and a new CBA) away, though. Bieber has always said he’d listen, but he has much more weight to throw around than he did a year ago.

It’s clear that the front office has a developed a system for producing big-time pitchers of all skill sets. Why can’t the same be done for position players? For an organization that has to rely on development, why is it lacking in position players who can make an impact? — Aaron C.

First, it’s important to understand how they have established a pitching factory. (I wrote about this in detail last December.) The most pivotal step forward took place about six years ago, when they eliminated barriers between the scouting and development departments. Now, they work together to identify which potential draftees boast qualities that the development staff is confident it can mold. They can seemingly convert any college kid who throws in the low 90s and possesses good command and an appetite for learning into a front-line starter.

They have not identified a similar formula on the hitting side, and it doesn’t help that it usually takes years to realize that what you’re doing isn’t working. (I recently dove into their alarming track record with outfielders.) They make annual tweaks to their drafting strategy and have committed to more grand-scale changes to their overall philosophy. Ten of the club’s top 25 prospects can play second base or shortstop. The lower levels of their system are loaded with internationally signed middle infielders, and that isn’t by accident. Their hope is some stick in the middle infield and some shift to third base or the outfield — and that enough of them demonstrate major-league ability. It’ll take a few more years to determine if that focus is paying dividends. The organization has also started to put more emphasis on contact-based hitters, their way of counteracting the sport’s soaring strikeout totals. Hitters such as Tyler Freeman, Jose Fermin and Owen Miller could have quicker ascents to the majors because they rarely strike out.

Do you see Cleveland acquiring any competition for Oscar Mercado in center? I know Delino DeShields was a bust, but he at least had decent fundamentals at the plate. I would love to see them add an athletic outfielder who can play center if needed. — Daniel P.

Perhaps the greatest release of stress for the front office in 2021 would come from Mercado recapturing his rookie season form. Aside from Bradley Zimmer, who is running out of opportunities — and, in 2022, minor-league options — there isn’t anyone in the organization who is remotely close to competing for that job. I’d venture a guess that the future center fielder (post-Mercado) either isn’t in the organization at the moment or is one of the team’s well-regarded middle-infield prospects. As much as anything else, the Indians are hoping they don’t need to figure that out for years.

The Indians can’t find an outfielder, yet the A’s took Ka’ai Tom from them in the Rule 5 draft. What gives? — Ryan L.

Cleveland left Tom exposed to the Rule 5 draft last year, too, and no one selected him. He wasn’t invited to the club’s alternate site in 2020, meaning he wasn’t granted an opportunity in a year in which the team could have used any outfielder with a pulse and a glove. At this point, they’re committed to Mercado, Josh Naylor, Jordan Luplow, Daniel Johnson and perhaps Franmil Reyes, Jake Bauers and Nolan Jones, depending on how defensive assignments shake out. Barring a rash of injuries, Tom wasn’t going to factor into the equation.

Tom will turn 27 in May. He enjoyed a breakout season in 2019, with a .290/.380/.532 slash line split between Double-A Akron and Triple-A Columbus. Oakland will need to carry him on its active roster or place him on outright waivers and, if he clears, offer him back to Cleveland for $50,000.


Triston McKenzie is one of a number of intriguing young Cleveland starting pitchers. (Ken Blaze / USA Today)
Tell me about the pitching pipeline. What does the pitching look like at the minor-league level, and what can you forecast starting pitching-wise over the next few years? — Andy J.

Let’s separate this into a few categories.

The major league-ready hurlers: Shane Bieber, Carlos Carrasco, Zach Plesac, Aaron Civale, Adam Plutko, Triston McKenzie, Cal Quantrill, Logan Allen and Scott Moss.

All but Carrasco are young and earning the league minimum or thereabouts. That’s a strong foundation that, ordinarily, would grant a team a ton of flexibility in building a competent lineup.

The starters who were more likely to help at some point in 2021 if there had been a minor-league season in 2020: Eli Morgan, Cody Morris, Adam Scott, Jordan Humphreys.

You’ll find similar results when you scour their stat lines: encouraging walk rates, high strikeout rates, sparkling ERAs. Morris is a bit of an outlier in this group, as he has only made 20 professional starts, but he’s also 24. Morgan is a change-up specialist who owns a 3.08 ERA in the minors. Earlier this winter, they acquired Humphreys, who has logged a 2.60 ERA with only 1.6 walks per nine innings, though he hasn’t pitched much since 2017. These four don’t project as top-line starters, but they equip the team with plenty of depth.

The other 40-man roster members: Sam Hentges, Jean Carlos Mejia, Carlos Vargas.

Hentges is a fascinating, towering lefty who has boosted his velocity into the mid-to-upper 90s. He struggled at Akron in 2019, but the organization still came away impressed with his potential. Mejia has surrendered a grand total of four home runs in 274 career innings. The club added Vargas, 21, to the 40-man roster last month.

The intriguing prospects: Ethan Hankins, Daniel Espino, Joey Cantillo.

Hankins and Espino, a couple of recent first-rounders who throw hard and rack up strikeouts in bunches, spent the summer in Eastlake. Cantillo joined them after coming over in the Clevinger trade. Cantillo, the elder statesman of this trio since he turned 21 on Dec. 18, possesses a well-regarded change-up and posted a 2.26 ERA with 11.6 K/9 in his first full minor-league season in 2019. All three are likely at least a couple of years away from breaking into the majors. It wouldn’t be surprising if one of them cracked a top 100 prospects list in the near future.

The new draftees: Tanner Burns, The Other Logan Allen, Mason Hickman.

The club used three of its six draft picks in 2020 on college pitchers. Keep in mind, there’s no longer a short-season affiliate in Mahoning Valley (Ohio), so these guys would probably either start the year at the Arizona complex or head to Low-A Lynchburg (Va.).

This is far from an exhaustive list, too. There are guys like Lenny Torres, who hasn’t pitched much since the team grabbed him with the 41st pick in 2018, who didn’t neatly fit into any of these groups. And there’s always the potential for the club to obtain some overlooked prospect in a trade, sprinkle some fairy dust on him and watch him bloom into a Cy Young contender.

No question here, just a request. Please give me hope as a Cleveland baseball fan. — Kyler L.

I could say something along the lines of, “Well, they aren’t going to bottom out. They’ll attempt to pseudo-contend, even as they reinvent this roster over the next couple of years, and they still boast the AL Cy Young winner, one of the most entertaining hitters in the sport, and a rising farm system.” But I wouldn’t expect that to inspire any fan to run through a wall.

There will likely be some growing pains ahead for the young roster. There will likely be agonizing over how the Francisco Lindor era ended with a whimper. There will likely be brain-melting debates about Spiders and Guardians and Walleye and Rocks and constant inquiries about whether the Dolans are seeking to sell the franchise. (There has been no indication that’s imminent.)
But unless you’re a toddler, you’ve probably stuck it out through much, much worse. And what fueled your fandom through those years stuck watching lopsided losses at the old dungeon on the lakeshore or those Acta-led rosters full of anonymous pedestrians?

Hope.

And maybe beer. Stock up on both.

Happy New Year.

that included a nice rundown on the pitching prospects; I'm going to repost that answer in Minor Matters for further reference

2021 vision: 10 predictions for the Cleveland Indians in the new year


By Zack Meisel 3h ago 22
CLEVELAND — In some ways, it’s like the 2020 season never happened.

Teams are being careful not to attach too much significance to players’ 60-game samples from games played in empty ballparks, with altered routines, pandemic protocols, limited access to video and an abnormal ramp-up to the regular season. Some prospects basically relived the early days of spring camp at their team’s alternate site, participating in simulated games, batting practice and scrimmages. Others received virtual instruction while stuck in their hometowns.

For the Indians, many headlines from last January remain unchanged. Take a peek at the 2020 forecast, 10 predictions made in this space one year ago.

1. Mike Clevinger will solidify his standing as an ace … and then he’ll be a popular name in trade rumors next winter.

Clevinger made only four starts for Cleveland before the club sent him to San Diego in a nine-player trade in late August.

2. Franmil Reyes will hit 40-plus home runs.

How is a guy supposed to smack 40 home runs in a 60-game season? OK, he wouldn’t have reached that total in a 162-game schedule, either.

3. The Indians will add another outfielder before spring training.

Unfortunately for the team, this was merely a prediction, not a mandate. Cleveland’s outfielders posted a hearty .194/.270/.300 slash line in 2020.

4. An unexpected hitter will have a breakout season at the plate.

The candidates listed last year (Jake Bauers, Bobby Bradley, Daniel Johnson) never received a chance. Only three other teams — the lowly Mariners, Rangers and Pirates — posted a worse OPS than Cleveland’s .689.

5. The Indians’ Triple-A rotation will be better than a handful of major-league rotations.

This is difficult to quantify since there was no minor-league season, but on a general level, the organization’s starting-pitching depth is unparalleled.

6. At least one of those starters will wind up playing a key bullpen role down the stretch.

The lack of a minor-league season, the trade of Clevinger and the shortened schedule left this prediction unfulfilled.

7. There will be a youth movement in the bullpen.

Emmanuel Clase’s suspension didn’t help, but James Karinchak racked up strikeouts and Ricky Vaughn comparisons.

8. The Indians farm system will earn recognition as a top-10 system in the league.

Without a minor-league season, this was essentially in a holding pattern.

9. José Ramírez will be the José Ramírez of yore.

Jackpot.

10. Francisco Lindor will be the Indians’ Opening Day shortstop.

The front office never received an offer to its liking last winter. It probably wishes it had.

We could certainly recycle some of the 2020 predictions for 2021. The team is still listening to offers on Lindor, still searching for answers in the outfield, still overflowing with starting pitchers, still waiting on its promising but inexperienced prospects to capture evaluators’ attention.

Saying that, though, something about the Indians seems different in 2021. The roster will be absent at least a couple of mainstays. The focus will be on youth and development. The division should prove more competitive and challenging.

Terry Francona tends to shy away from making predictions, often relying on one of his go-to phrases: “We don’t have a crystal ball.” Well, they’re pretty cheap on eBay.

Here’s the forecast for 2021.

1. Cleveland’s outfield will actually be fine.

Yeah, wipe the drink off your screen after your spit-take. Look, Oscar Mercado can only fare better, following his .128/.174/.174 slash line in 2020. Small sample sizes be damned: Josh Naylor resembled Babe Ruth during the 29 hours the Indians spent in the postseason. Really, though, his minor-league track record suggests he should be able to handle big-league pitching, and he now has 350 major-league at-bats to his name, so perhaps 2021 will be his breakout year.

Johnson and Jordan Luplow could form a sufficient platoon in right field. The Indians erred in not awarding Johnson more of a chance last season, instead opting to hand outfield at-bats to Delino DeShields, Domingo Santana and even utility infielder Mike Freeman. As a result, there’s still some mystery about what Johnson can offer at the major-league level.

It might not necessarily be these four candidates, depending on whether Reyes occupies a defensive position or if Bauers or Bradley impress the club enough to land the first base gig. They could always acquire another outfielder in a trade, too. Regardless, the bottom line: This group can’t possibly be worse than last year’s bunch.


Will Franmil Reyes produce in the middle of Cleveland’s lineup in 2021? (David Richard / USA Today)
2. Reyes will actually embody the power threat his massive frame suggests he should be.

OK, I’m not predicting 40-plus home runs this year. Maybe 35. But who knows if they’ll even play a 162-game schedule? Reyes sizzled at the plate for a four-week stretch in August, when he registered a .418 average and a 1.201 OPS. Overall, though, his numbers were somewhat pedestrian, with a solid-but-unspectacular .795 OPS and nine home runs. Reyes has swatted fastballs beyond bullpens, pelted pitches off the scoreboard on the back fields at the team’s complex in Arizona. He has unrivaled opposite-field power. He has seen enough American League pitching. It’s time he puts it all together at the plate for a full season.

3. Nolan Jones will join the big-league club in June.

He has played only 49 games at Double A. He spent the summer in Eastlake, battling pitchers in a spring training-like setting. He’ll likely be playing outfield, maybe even first base, since the front office thinks a new position will place him on a quicker path to the majors. (The fastest path to the majors would be for him to play third base, where he’s worked with John McDonald for the last few years. The organization, though, insists it prefers to keep Ramírez at third, even though he has, in the past, voiced his willingness to shift across the diamond.) Anyway, Jones will need some time to get acclimated to his new defensive assignments, which he tested out in Arizona in October, so he’ll likely start the season at Triple-A Columbus. (There’s also the whole service-time-manipulation-of-the-top-ranked-prospect-in-the-organization thing.) But they’ll have a few different ways to fit him onto the roster once summer arrives.

4. We’ll all be exhausted of the name-change talk by Opening Day.

That is, if you aren’t already. Perhaps the best way to choose a name will be to determine which option fans haven’t grown tired of hearing about by the end of the year. I already have Spiders debate fatigue, as that name seems as polarizing as any political topic. This will be a slow process, one the organization will keep under wraps before revealing the new branding for the Cleveland Hazards in December, just in time for the holiday shopping season. (OK, I don’t actually think it’ll be Hazards, named after Oliver “Hazard” Perry. I’ll guess Guardians.)

5. The Indians’ Triple-A rotation will be better than a handful of major-league rotations.

It could include Logan Allen and Scott Moss, two lefties ready for major-league opportunities. Maybe it will include, for a bit, Triston McKenzie, who shook off two years of rust to turn some heads last season. Eli Morgan isn’t far from deserving a big-league chance. Sam Hentges is an intriguing prospect. Jean Carlos Mejia, Cody Morris, Adam Scott and Jordan Humphreys could all be in the mix. Point is, the Clippers should field a rotation with five starters who wouldn’t be completely out of place if they composed the rotation of a rebuilding big-league team.

6. The bullpen will encounter some bumps but will flash plenty of potential.

Francona wouldn’t commit to naming a closer last month, but he did note that “sometimes the most important out might be in the seventh inning. … I don’t know that you just take a name and put him in the ninth inning because sometimes that guy can help you more by being flexible in the seventh or eighth.” Karinchak is the club’s most gifted reliever, but it might make more sense to deploy him in a fireman role, rather than pigeonhole him into pitching the ninth inning of every close game. That’s something they can determine during spring camp.

At last, we’ll get to see Clase in action, the last man standing from the Corey Kluber trade (and even he was knocked down for a season). Nick Wittgren, who settled on a $2 million deal for 2021 to avoid arbitration, has been Mr. Reliable the last two years. Phil Maton and Cam Hill could help out in middle relief.

It’ll be a young group overall, with potential contributions from Anthony Gose, Nick Sandlin and Kyle Nelson. They could have an extra starter or two in the bullpen as well, perhaps Cal Quantrill or Adam Plutko or one of the lefties, Allen or Moss. There’s a ton of potential here, but it might take some time to sort out who belongs and in which roles.

7. An unexpected hitter will have a breakout season at the plate.

It could be Naylor. It could be Johnson. It could be Luplow. Maybe Bradley. Someone will surprise, and it’ll be a welcome development because outside of Ramírez, Cleveland’s lineup lacks reliable sources of output.


Francisco Lindor’s days in Cleveland appear numbered. (Harrison Barden / Getty Images)
8. Francisco Lindor will be the Opening Day shortstop … for the Toronto Blue Jays.

In my end-of-the-year super-mega-epic mailbag last week, I detailed all of the hurdles complicating Cleveland’s bid to trade Lindor. The front office has next to no leverage, other than the fact that Lindor is really talented and they could hang onto him until the summer.

Some have attempted to compare Lindor to Yu Darvish, suggesting that the uninspiring return for the 34-year-old pitcher who is owed nearly $60 million the next three years means the Indians won’t get much for Lindor. And while the latter part of that sentence might ring true — the Indians aren’t going to be injecting rocket fuel into their farm system from this deal — the Darvish comparison is basically apples to kumquats.

Lindor being a rental is what will limit his return, and with shortstops like Didi Gregorius, Marcus Semien and Andrelton Simmons available in free agency now and with shortstops such as Lindor, Javy Baez, Trevor Story, Carlos Correa and Corey Seager potentially available in free agency next winter (and with a new CBA and perhaps a somewhat pandemic-free baseball economy coming), teams can strong-arm the Indians into settling on an underwhelming package for the perennial All-Star.

None of those factors, though, alter Cleveland’s ultimate preference: to reap something in return for Lindor before he exits (and not just a draft pick). The Blue Jays are just a hunch since they seem motivated to make some sort of splash and they boast a healthy farm system and some young major-leaguers who would appeal to the Indians. The Mets could also be the answer. Maybe the Phillies. Maybe the … well, there aren’t many sensible matches. That’s another obstacle. Get ready for a “mystery team” or two.

9. At times, the Indians will look like the class of the league. Other times, they’ll look like bottom-feeders.

There are too many unproven entities on this roster, a horde of inexperienced players who might suffer some growing pains in 2021. The pitching staff is deep and talented but also young and not immune from regression. The lineup may be full of players attempting to cement their place in the big leagues. It’s not difficult to envision a stretch in which the rotation rattles off two weeks’ worth of sterling starts that provokes a surge in the standings. And yet, it’s also easy to pinpoint the numerous question marks on the roster and to imagine a lengthy skid fueled by cold bats and some inconsistent pitching.

10. The Indians will finish third in the AL Central.

There’s a lot to be decided, so no need to skewer this prediction or dial your bookie just yet. Assuming the Twins add a piece to their rotation and the Indians send Lindor elsewhere, this seems like the safest forecast for Cleveland’s ultimate finish in the division. The Indians still employ the reigning Cy Young winner, an AL MVP threat and a bunch of young, intriguing players, but a division crown is a tall order. The White Sox will field a deep, imposing lineup and a capable rotation. The Twins remain more than formidable. The Royals and Tigers should be a bit better.

There are two clear-cut contenders and two teams starting the upswing of their rebuilds. And then there is Cleveland, caught somewhere in the middle, stuck in a payroll-induced purgatory, attempting to play both sides at once.

6. At least one of those [AAA] starters will wind up playing a key bullpen role down the stretch.

The lack of a minor-league season, the trade of Clevinger and the shortened schedule left this prediction unfulfilled.

But one of the proto-AAA starters [McKenzie] played a key rotation role down the stretch.

I agree that this year's OF can't be as bad as last year's [well actually it could be worse, remember we were not last in OF production in 2020] but relying on the inevitably of Mercado not slashing 100/110/120 again is not much to go on. I do, however, think Naylor can be a good bat; and I like Luplow platooning with someone, more likely Jones than Johnson. Would be nice to some other CF available since Mercado's defense wasn't so hot either.
Are we likely to get a Blue Jay CF in the Lindor trade? Whoever that is will probably play ahead of Oscar.

The Washington Post

With deep pockets, grand ambition, new Mets owner swings blockbuster deal for Francisco Lindor


By
Dave Sheinin
Jan. 7, 2021 at 4:54 p.m. EST

On a day when arguably the best shortstop in baseball went from one of the sport’s smallest markets to its largest — in a blockbuster, six-player trade that cranked up the volume on an eerily quiet offseason — it was the subtext that stood out. The New York Mets got considerably better by acquiring Francisco Lindor, and the Cleveland Indians got worse. But the true catalyst for this deal, at least as much as talent, was money.

The money Lindor, 27, stands to make when (or if) he hits free agency at the end of the 2021 season. The money the Indians saved by unloading not only Lindor but also veteran pitcher Carlos Carrasco in the same deal. And the money the Mets’ new billionaire owner, Steve Cohen, has been itching to spend since he took control in November.

That money, it turns out, goes a long way when many other teams are downsizing.

Cleveland’s baseball team plans to drop the name Indians after 105 years

What the trade — Lindor and Carrasco to the Mets for younger shortstops Amed Rosario and Andrés Giménez and prospects Josh Wolf and Isaiah Greene — says about baseball as an industry is open for debate, particularly with the sport in a state of upheaval: facing both an ongoing labor Cold War and the prospect of a second straight season altered by the coronavirus pandemic.

But what it says about the goals of the Mets and Indians is clear.

On one side is the Mets. Since Cohen took ownership from the Wilpon family — saying at his introductory news conference, “I’m not in this to be mediocre … I want something great” — New York has been the industry’s most aggressive and motivated mover on the offseason talent market. It already signed the sport’s largest free agent contract this winter, the four-year, $40 million deal for catcher James McCann, and is viewed, even after the Lindor/Carrasco trade, as the leading suitor for free agent center fielder George Springer and pitcher Trevor Bauer.

In Lindor, the Mets added a four-time all-star and one of baseball’s most dynamic and telegenic superstars to a lineup that already includes 2019 National League rookie of the year Pete Alonso and rising star Dominic Smith. And in Carrasco, they added a proven starter with a career 3.77 ERA to a rotation headed by two-time Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom and former all-star Marcus Stroman.

On a sheer talent level, if the Mets aren’t already on equal footing with the three-time defending division champion Atlanta Braves in the National League East, they may be there by the time spring training camps are scheduled to open in mid-February.

With Cohen’s deep pockets and lofty ambition, the Mets almost certainly will sign Lindor to a mammoth, long-term contract extension — mirroring the Los Angeles Dodgers’ trade for superstar right fielder Mookie Betts from the Boston Red Sox roughly 11 months ago, which was followed five months later by the Dodgers signing him to a 12-year $365 million extension. Like Lindor, Betts was one year away from reaching free agency at the time of the trade.

Mets’ Robinson Canó suspended for entire 2021 season after second positive PED test

“We acquired Francisco because of his present ability and the possibility he could be a Met long term,” Mets President Sandy Alderson said during a video news conference. “There’s no guarantee of [an extension]. It’s something we will approach in the next few weeks. … I think what we have to offer is a great city [and] an organization we think is on the rise. There’s a lot of excitement with new ownership. I think there’s a lot of reason to be optimistic.”

And the Mets pulled off Thursday’s blockbuster without giving up anyone they couldn’t live without. Rosario and Giménez, both shortstops, were made obsolete by Lindor’s acquisition, while Wolf, a 20-year-old right-handed pitcher, and Greene, a 19-year-old outfielder, were the ninth- and 10th-ranked prospects, respectively, in the Mets’ farm system, per MLB Pipeline.

On the other side of Thursday’s deal is the Indians, who have been hemorrhaging high-end talent at a shocking rate the past two years. Convinced they had no chance of re-signing Lindor after this season, they instead dealt away the player who had become the face of their franchise during a stretch that featured four playoff appearances in five seasons, highlighted by a trip to the 2016 World Series. Carrasco’s inclusion in the deal was a blatant salary dump; he is owed $27 million over the next two seasons.

“I can understand the sadness [of Indians fans], the frustration, all the emotions that go along with a trade like this. I appreciate them and experience them myself,” Indians President Chris Antonetti said. “ … We have to operate within the system that’s in place. We try to build a successful franchise within the rules of the collective bargaining agreement and the economic system of baseball.

“We made multiple attempts to sign [Lindor], but that didn’t happen, and now he has transitioned to another organization. That’s just the reality of the professional baseball landscape right now.”

Imagine: in 2018, the Indians won 91 games and their third straight American League Central title featuring a lineup anchored by Lindor, who hit a career-high 38 homers, and a rotation headed by Corey Kluber, Bauer, Carrasco and Mike Clevinger.

But within the past 18 months, all five have been traded away for mostly younger players and prospects. And now the Indians, coming off a second-place finish in 2020, are left with a shell of a team that, as currently constructed, will have a payroll in the $50 million range in 2021, which would be among the lowest in MLB.

Whether fault lies with an economic system, exacerbated by the revenue losses from the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, that has increased the stratification between baseball’s haves and have-nots or with an ownership group willing to use that economic system and short-term losses as excuses for keeping payrolls low — the effect is the same for Indians fans.

Those fans are being made to say goodbye to another great player — two of them, actually — in the name of future payroll flexibility. Which is a fine enough goal and which has become the buzz phrase of modern baseball — but which is nowhere near as much fun to root for as Francisco Lindor.

Our man Meisel:

The state of Cleveland baseball without Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco


By Zack Meisel Jan 7, 2021 122
CLEVELAND — For nearly a year, Chris Antonetti and Francisco Lindor have discussed the possibility that the shortstop’s tenure in Cleveland might end with a trade.

Last year, those conversations served to assure Lindor that nothing was imminent and that if any trade dialogue gained steam, the club president would notify the four-time All-Star. Earlier this winter, though, Antonetti called Lindor and unveiled the front office’s altered blueprint.

The possibility of a Lindor trade has been the sport’s worst-kept secret. The Indians have been motivated to trade their homegrown superstar before Opening Day 2021, aiming to recoup young talent before Lindor, a guy who checked every box as a franchise player, reaches free agency. Antonetti and Lindor touched base over the holidays, and Antonetti kept the 27-year-old in the loop as talks with the New York Mets reached a crescendo this week.

But Lindor and Cleveland fans can probably agree: Having an idea that a trade might materialize doesn’t necessarily eliminate the gravity of its consummation.

The Indians, so hellbent on balancing short-term contention with long-term planning, now lean much further toward the latter. The departure of Lindor and Carlos Carrasco — in exchange for four players ranging in age from 19 to 25 — clears more than $30 million off Cleveland’s books for 2021 and leaves the club with an estimated payroll in the $35-40 million range.

This might not mirror a traditional rebuild, in which a team strips its roster to the studs and takes five or six years to build it back up — the pitching staff is too skilled and José Ramírez is still ensconced at third base — but there’s no doubt that growing pains and an emphasis on development will be prevalent themes in 2021. Really, this process began a couple of years ago, with the trades of Trevor Bauer, Corey Kluber and Mike Clevinger and the ever-plunging payroll. This was just the final, most significant and most painful step in recalibrating the roster.

“At some point,” Antonetti said, “things change and you have to transition. And we’re now doing that.”

The Indians met with Lindor and his agent on several occasions in an attempt to pinpoint some common ground on a long-term extension, but those meetings weren’t fruitful. The last-ditch effort came during spring training last year when Paul Dolan flew to Goodyear, Ariz. Antonetti said he felt “there was a mutual intent and desire” to work something out. Lindor publicly voiced his preference to remain with the franchise, though he never revealed what sort of salary would be sufficient. In the end, no agreement was reached, which all but sealed the fate that came to fruition on Thursday.

Lindor’s future has been a popular topic since he rebuffed the team’s $100 million extension offer following the 2016 season. An eventual trade has almost seemed inevitable, even before Dolan told The Athletic in March 2019 that the day the franchise hands out a $300 million deal is “when somebody else is doing $1 billion deals.” Of course, Dolan infamously added in that conversation: “Enjoy him. We control him for three more years. Enjoy him, and then we’ll see what happens.” Dolan hasn’t spoken to reporters about the payroll since then.

Antonetti has contended that any team can afford any one player, saying it’s more about having the wiggle room to supplement the roster around that star. Yet, even with Lindor, Ramírez and an unparalleled pitching staff all in tow for less than market value, the Indians failed to fill glaring gaps on the roster the last few years, even as they could sense this storm on the horizon.

Now, the payroll sits about $100 million lower than it did three years ago. Antonetti said his expectation is the front office “will reinvest resources back into the team.” Granted, that’s been a familiar phrase the last few offseasons, though each winter has grown chillier beside Lake Erie.

Only five players on the roster are in line to earn more than the league minimum:

1. José Ramírez, $9.4 million, the MVP runner-up
2. Roberto Pérez, $5.5 million, a two-time Gold Glove-winning catcher
3. Austin Hedges, the backup catcher, expected to earn about $3 million via arbitration
4. Nick Wittgren, a reliable reliever who agreed to a $2 million salary for 2021, according to sources
5. Phil Maton, a right-handed reliever, expected to earn about $850,000 via arbitration

Perhaps the club will approach Shane Bieber about a long-term deal. Bieber is under team control for four more seasons; he’ll eligible for arbitration for the first time next year. (And, hey, if they can’t strike a deal, we could be having the same conversation about him come 2023.)


So, what does 2021 look like?

From a roster standpoint, the Indians can absorb Carrasco’s departure, though his farewell will surely sting for members of the organization and the fan base. Carrasco was the club’s longest-tenured player, a guy who signed a pair of team-friendly contracts to remain in Cleveland, a guy who was diagnosed with leukemia just a year and a half ago, a frequent presence in the pediatric cancer ward at the Cleveland Clinic, where he visited ailing kids even while fighting his own battle. It’s quite the unceremonious exit for such a beloved figure in the community and in the clubhouse.

Cleveland does have plenty of rotation options, with Bieber, Zach Plesac, Aaron Civale, Triston McKenzie, Adam Plutko, Cal Quantrill, Logan Allen, Scott Moss and others. The bullpen is mostly young and intriguing, anchored by James Karinchak, Emmanuel Clase and Wittgren.

Then, there’s the position-player group.

Outside of Ramírez (and maybe Franmil Reyes), it’s a collection of unproven commodities, well-regarded minor leaguers who still need to prove they can consistently handle major-league pitching. Josh Naylor? He has upside. Oscar Mercado? Same thing. Daniel Johnson, Jordan Luplow, Bobby Bradley, Yu Chang, Jake Bauers and now Amed Rosario and Andrés Giménez? There’s potential, sure, but the jury’s still out.

Rosario and Giménez could form the team’s Opening Day middle infield. Rosario turned 25 in November. He owns a .268/.302/.403 slash line in 403 career games with the Mets. He produced his best season in 2019, when he hit .287 (.755 OPS) with 15 homers, 30 doubles and 19 stolen bases.

Giménez, 22, debuted last season with New York, posting a .263/.333/.398 slash line in 132 trips to the plate. He earned acclaim as a top-100 prospect the last few years, peaking in the top 30, per several outlets, prior to the 2019 campaign.

The other two prospects in the deal, Josh Wolf and Isaiah Greene, lack much of a professional track record. Wolf, the Mets’ second-round pick in 2019, logged eight innings in rookie ball in 2019. Greene was New York’s second-rounder last summer.

As has been written in this space repeatedly over the last few months, these weren’t the ideal circumstances in which to trade a pivotal player. The Mets held plenty of leverage, given that free agency has hardly commenced and they simply could have signed Didi Gregorius or Marcus Semien or Andrelton Simmons. Teams could have opted to wait until next offseason to sign Lindor or Corey Seager or Trevor Story or Javy Baez or Carlos Correa, who are all scheduled to reach free agency. And there wasn’t a long line of suitors in this pandemic-influenced offseason for Lindor, who is expected to earn about $20 million via arbitration during his final year of team control. Rentals don’t fetch what they used to.

“It does seem like if you look at the history of those deals,” Antonetti said, “and what the expected return for players with one year left was 10 years ago versus today, that return might look appreciably different. … It’s just a very unique environment to execute transactions right now.”

The front office can trumpet its plan to contend in 2021, but the reality is that Cleveland clearly sits behind Minnesota and Chicago in the projected battle for AL Central supremacy. The Indians are much better positioned for future seasons than they are for 2021.

Antonetti traded texts and calls with Carrasco in recent days, so the 33-year-old righty wasn’t blindsided by the seismic trade. Antonetti said he was in tears as he informed both players that the deal was nearing completion. “I think they were as well,” he said.

“Trades like this are really, really hard to make,” Antonetti said. “But at the same time, we feel it’s the right thing to do for us. A big part of the success we’ve had as an organization over the last decade or so is because we’ve been willing to make difficult choices to position our team to be successful. Hopefully, this will be — as painful as it is right now — a trade that positions us to be successful moving forward.”

Lloyd: How much longer can Indians ownership operate this way?


By Jason Lloyd 1h ago 39
Maybe it’s fitting that this is how it ends, with Francisco Lindor off to New York. He is, after all, heading to a Mets franchise that recently navigated the type of ownership storm that certainly seems to be blowing toward Cleveland.

A day of reckoning is coming for the Dolan family, perhaps sooner than later. By all accounts, they are wonderful people. They’re Clevelanders. Those within the franchise gush about working for them. They are easily the best-run franchise in town. This isn’t an indictment of their character or the franchise stability they’ve created. Nevertheless, it’s fair to wonder …

How much longer? How much longer can this continue?

Trading Lindor is hard enough. The Indians did everything right with him. They nailed a top-10 draft pick, developed him in their farm system and watched him bloom into a superstar. That’s the way the system is designed to work. And now they’re shipping him off.

It’s difficult to stomach, it’s not fair and fans certainly have every right to feel cheated and angered. But this isn’t the first time it has happened with a small-market team and it definitely won’t be the last.

Trading Lindor is certainly an indictment of the Dolans, but the inclusion of Carlos Carrasco is what makes it fair to question if they are financially fit for this game anymore.

Let’s be clear: The loss of Lindor obviously hurts more now and into the future. But Carrasco’s inclusion truly reveals the deficiencies in this ownership regime.

Carrasco has only $27 million left in guarantees on his incredibly team-friendly deal. He’s entering his age-34 season and he has pitched more than 1,200 innings, so maybe this is a shrewd move to trade a guy one year too early rather than a year too late. But it feels more like an ownership group that cannot afford even the discounted salary of a franchise pillar.

Pitching is coveted more than any position, and the Indians just dumped terrific value. They are operating financially like the A’s and Rays. That’s a problem.

Team president Chris Antonetti and general manager Mike Chernoff have been transparent about the catastrophic losses facing the Indians and all of baseball in this pandemic. Now the bill is coming due, and the Dolans don’t have enough cash to cover the check.

Don’t conflate Cleveland’s Larry and Paul Dolan with New York’s father-son duo of Charles and James. Charles is Larry’s billionaire brother and the founder of Cablevision. Larry is a retired Cleveland attorney. The blood might be the same, but the money sure ain’t.

The Cleveland Indians are these Dolans’ primary source of income. This isn’t a family that made billions in tech or real estate. They aren’t business moguls. There is no empire of wealth. They’re Clevelanders and huge sports fans who did well as attorneys and bought a team 20 years ago when there was a little more room for mom and pop stands in professional sports. But in that time, the game has changed for ownership groups, and now baseball is pricing them out of their own neighborhood.


Indians president Chris Antonetti and team owner Paul Dolan chat prior to a game on June 26, 2017. (Nick Cammett / Diamond Images / Getty Images)
A minority partner would certainly help, but those are more difficult to find than it would seem. It’s an ego stroke to call yourself an owner of a pro sports team, regardless of how small the stake, but there are few other benefits. Minority owners have zero control over the day-to-day operations and they’re rarely consulted on important decisions. Minority owners just write the checks and have to trust the majority ownership group to get it right.

If the Indians are losing money, such as they claim every year, where is the incentive for a new investor? Particularly if you’re an outsider to Cleveland?

John Sherman bought 30 percent of the Indians and served as the Dolans’ partner until purchasing full control of the Royals in 2019. Sherman has acknowledged he had a deal in place to assume full control of the Indians from the Dolans before his hometown Royals became available.

The Indians theoretically should be appealing to an investor who could negotiate a similar timeline of transitioning into majority interest, but that hasn’t been the case. Why sink money into a product for even four or five years when you have no say in the outcome? Just wait and perhaps buy the whole thing in a few years and have complete control.

The Wilpon family searched for nearly a decade to find a minority owner who could take a significant piece of the Mets. Nothing ever materialized in part because they couldn’t find anyone to fully trust their disastrous ownership style, and the game eventually swallowed them up. The Wilpons ultimately sold controlling interest to billionaire hedge fund manager Steve Cohen, who announced his presence to Major League Baseball with Thursday’s trade for Lindor.

Eventually, that will happen here and the Dolans will be forced to sell their entire interest. Moments like this make it seem inevitable. Paul Dolan hinted in our 2019 sit-down with him that the family’s ownership tenure could be tied to the health of his parents, Larry and Eva. Larry turns 90 next month.

“My parents are aging,” Dolan said two years ago, “so things could happen.”

Between the name change, the stadium lease expiring and a payroll sliced to $35 million, this is a franchise ripe to be sold — although I don’t believe this team is in real danger of leaving town. Being native Clevelanders, I don’t believe the Dolans would sell to anyone interested in moving the franchise.

There is a danger, also, in the devil you don’t know. For all of the Dolans’ financial deficiencies, they do everything else exactly right. That’s why a small-market team has retained big-market talent like Terry Francona, Antonetti and Chernoff for all these years. All three could leave for more lucrative jobs and bloated payrolls, yet all three choose to stay. It’s an important point to make. New ownership could lead to front-office and managerial instability.

But the Indians aren’t the Athletics or Rays and should never have to operate as such. Both of those teams are stuck in awful stadiums that do not generate revenue. The stadium isn’t the problem in Cleveland. The empty pockets are.

(Top photo of Francisco Lindor: Jason Miller / Getty Images)

What did you think of this story?

Here is my problem with this article - let me make it clear that I agree it's time for new ownership. BUT this sentence: "Carrasco has only $27 million left in guarantees on his incredibly team-friendly deal." No it is not. Not anymore - that was before the pandemic. Brad Hand - $10 million for 1 year - was not even picked up for that price. All you need to know. Carrasco signed a team friendly deal - but now his age and the new (hopefully short term) economics make that deal much less friendly in the MLB marketplace. Except for the Mets and a select other few.

Lloyd and Meisel have the right concept but not quite right on the dollars. I had to do the math, since that's what I enjoy doing,

Lloyd says payroll is $35M. That is wrong. Meisel tells us 5 guys make just under $21M total. He says "no one else makes more than minimum." Not far off but wrong

Minimum this year is $570,500. That is almost exactly $20M for the other 35 assuming that no one makes more. They do, not a lot more, but some will be $50,000 or more about that. So add another $1M..

So the payroll is about $42M.

Trevor Bauer, Corey Kluber, Clevinger and Carrasco:

I am guessing that except for Bauer, these other pitcher's cost to value ratio are all on the downside. And Bauer is a headcase that wanted one-year deals. With deep starting pitching, these trades are no-brainers from a business point of view. Get a bunch of young talent your analytics dept supports and hope a fraction of them succeed.

Lindor did not have a good year last year. Has he peaked? Will he continue at .300, 30+ HR, 80 RBIs for 5 more years? Or become .275 with 22 Hrs and get paid about $300 million? Who knows? Some ball players play well into their 30's - many do not. And many of those that did over the last 25 years are linked to PEDs. Lindor was great, but it wasn't like he was drawing huge numbers of fans to the ballpark. It sucks that he can't be a member of the Tribe for his whole career - but there is no way Cleveland (or any team really) should give $300+ million contracts to any ballplayer.

civ ollilavad wrote:Lloyd and Meisel have the right concept but not quite right on the dollars. I had to do the math, since that's what I enjoy doing,

Lloyd says payroll is $35M. That is wrong. Meisel tells us 5 guys make just under $21M total. He says "no one else makes more than minimum." Not far off but wrong

Minimum this year is $570,500. That is almost exactly $20M for the other 35 assuming that no one makes more. They do, not a lot more, but some will be $50,000 or more about that. So add another $1M..

So the payroll is about $42M.

Nice post civ.

Look the public only looks at the players and they only know Lindor and Carrasco. They see 2 Mets guys they never heard of and 2 minor leaguers they never heard of. Bottom line!!

If they are bitching about the trade they have no clue how intricate it is to make a MLB market trade. The contracts, the lengths, the ages. The fact that Lindor turned down a $100 million extension, The pandemic's effect on the payrolls on virtually every team.

On and on. Taking all that into account I am surprised they got what they did for a (star) shortstop on a 1 year rental deal! And an older starting pitcher making what he is making. Say what you will but that is how the market views him and how it works. They did well finding a match with one of the very, very few teams that would bite on that concept.

By the way, the Mets gave James McCann 4 years at $40 million when no other team would go that long with contract length. Do the fans know that?? So the Mets were the ideal partner all along and Sandy Alderson and Antonetti have been buddies for a long time - the Mets GM today said that Alderson and Antonetti did the majority of the groundwork before he was even hired. Does the general fan know that?

He also said the Tribe was deciding whether to package Carrasco and Lindor separately or together. Remember the Red Sox sent David Price to the Dodgers in the Betts trade as a way for the Dodgers to take on the money and reduce the prospect in return. Same here. The minor leaguers therefore became really young kids. But the Tribe brass likes them - there's a tradeoff.

rusty has been saying for a long time - Cleveland is a small market like an Oakland or a Tampa. So yeah that is the model unless you have an owner that is willing to spend without regard balancing anything.

Civ to Vic:

We share many opinions on this. We kept Kluber through and slightly beyond the peak of his career and perhaps get a good reliever for him.
I'm a big Clevinger fan and I think his talent is No. 1 starter quality but his injury history is terrible and we got what could turn out to be an excellent package for him.
Bauer is an excellent pitcher and a jerk. He would never have stayed with Cleveland. We got a power hitter for him and maybe some pitching.
Carrasco is certainly on the latter side of his career but is not pitching any worse than before his illness. Since the collection of not so exciting talent we got for Lindor seems like a not exciting package for Lindor alone, it's a little unclear what we got for Carrasco other than a dump of his salary. If we can replace his innings and wins for 10% of the cost. Otherwise I don't see the benefit.

TFIR just snuck his post in before I hit send. I guess he is right about the Lindor return but it really doesn't do much for me. Not as much about the quality of the guys we got but why a couple major league ready pretty good infielders and not outfielders?
We could use Chang at one IF spot, we could rush Gabriel Arias up [did they forget about him already?] we could do the same with Tyler Freeman: I know they haven't played AAA but I could see one of them if not both getting major league opportunity in 2021 if we had picked up someone who can play CF instead

civ - Hammy was on MLB Network this morning and he said it's time to give Chang a shot. He pointed out quite vigorously that the Indians have averaged 92 wins over the last 8 years (non pandemic).

Also, Harold Reynolds put on some video of Greene hitting and Reynolds does the draft show for MLB. He said, and the video showed, that his best comparison to Greene was Brantley. Lefty swing, smooth.

One more thing - the Mets tried Rosario in the outfield last year and that could be his future. Take a look at his 2019 season and his age. That could be the outfielder.

If they put the kid from the Mets at short and his defense is fine and he hits close to 270 his first year - how many fewer games do they win versus having Lindor playing?

And if the other ss (Rosario) becomes a solid 2B helping form a strong middle IF combo for years to come, can we complain? (Probably...)

Certainly if Lindor averages .300, 35, 80 for the next 5 years while staying at a GG level of D and leads the Mets to the promised land. Guess we will see.

Greene sounds like a possible solution to the CF problem in a year or so. The pitcher seems to have the stuff the Tribe likes to develop.

This next season is likely to be under the COVID cloud - so use it to develop the young talent. No pressure to make and advance in the playoffs, so Tito can help turn these kids into major leaguers.