Elliot (Youngstown OH): The Indians haven't had a lefty in the rotation since Sam McDowell, well not quite. Do any of the current prospects have a chance: Scott Moss, Joey Cantillo or one of the Logan Allens?
Teddy Cahill: How quickly you forget Carsten Charles Sabathia and Clifton Phifer Lee. How fun was it watching those guys? I would guess Sabathia wears a Yankee hat on his Cooperstown plaque, but there should be consideration given to him going in as an Indian. ANYWAY - I'd say they all have chances. You'll probably see Logan S. Allen (the one via SD) highest in this year's handbook, but I wouldn't bet against Logan T. Allen being the best rotation contender when it's all said and done.
Re: Minor Matters
10757Here's a softball
Mike (Honolulu): Prospect-wise, where does the organization need to shore up their stable of players?
Teddy Cahill: All together now: the outfield
Mike (Honolulu): Prospect-wise, where does the organization need to shore up their stable of players?
Teddy Cahill: All together now: the outfield
Re: Minor Matters
10758another easy one
Mike (Honolulu): Is Triston McKenzie likely to be in one of the five rotation spots for the Indians in 2021? What are your expectations for him?
Teddy Cahill: I think that's a safe assumption and I'd expect him to do very well with it. The biggest questions are about how well he'll hold up over a long season, but as long as he's healthy, I think what you saw is what you can get. He'll have some rookie scuffles like anyone, but he's got premium upside.
Mike (Honolulu): Is Triston McKenzie likely to be in one of the five rotation spots for the Indians in 2021? What are your expectations for him?
Teddy Cahill: I think that's a safe assumption and I'd expect him to do very well with it. The biggest questions are about how well he'll hold up over a long season, but as long as he's healthy, I think what you saw is what you can get. He'll have some rookie scuffles like anyone, but he's got premium upside.
Re: Minor Matters
10759om (Akron): Since joining the organization, Eli Morgan has led Indians minor leaguers in strikeouts. BA has been lukewarm on him in the past...does his addition to the 40-man roster improve your outlook on him at all?
Teddy Cahill: It's going to get him back in the 30 this year. I can say that for sure. But the knocks on Morgan are the same as ever - he's undersized and he has to be ultra-fine with his control to succeed. He's done a good job of that so far, but he's only thrown 107 innings in the upper levels. I really wish we could have seen him in games in 2020 because I think it would have been very instructive. But the Indians' implicit endorsement of him by adding him to the roster is meaningful.
Meaning: they know Pitching!
Teddy Cahill: It's going to get him back in the 30 this year. I can say that for sure. But the knocks on Morgan are the same as ever - he's undersized and he has to be ultra-fine with his control to succeed. He's done a good job of that so far, but he's only thrown 107 innings in the upper levels. I really wish we could have seen him in games in 2020 because I think it would have been very instructive. But the Indians' implicit endorsement of him by adding him to the roster is meaningful.
Meaning: they know Pitching!
Re: Minor Matters
10760and speaking of pitching they can develop
John (Shaker Heights): The Indians seem to have a lot of pitching prospects that have seemed to have flown under the radar nationally. Outside of those in the top 10, who do you think may have the best combination of upside and probability to develop into a mid-rotation starter or better?
Teddy Cahill: Tanner Burns is at the top of that list for me. Carlos Vargas, Logan T. Allen and Joey Cantillo are worth mentioning here as well. But I'm very excited about what Burns could become as he works with the Indians PD staff.
John (Shaker Heights): The Indians seem to have a lot of pitching prospects that have seemed to have flown under the radar nationally. Outside of those in the top 10, who do you think may have the best combination of upside and probability to develop into a mid-rotation starter or better?
Teddy Cahill: Tanner Burns is at the top of that list for me. Carlos Vargas, Logan T. Allen and Joey Cantillo are worth mentioning here as well. But I'm very excited about what Burns could become as he works with the Indians PD staff.
Re: Minor Matters
10761I sort of asked this question twice and he answered it the same way, but added a name
Elliot (Youngstown OH): Who do you see as possible closer candidates to challenge Karinchak in a few years?
Teddy Cahill: Emmanuel Clase comes immediately to mind. If the Indians were to decide one of the pitchers currently being developed as a starter is better served in the bullpen, perhaps a Sam Hentges, you never know who might take to that role. But writing Karinchak in as the 2024 closer may have been the easiest part of compiling that lineup.
Elliot (Youngstown OH): Who do you see as possible closer candidates to challenge Karinchak in a few years?
Teddy Cahill: Emmanuel Clase comes immediately to mind. If the Indians were to decide one of the pitchers currently being developed as a starter is better served in the bullpen, perhaps a Sam Hentges, you never know who might take to that role. But writing Karinchak in as the 2024 closer may have been the easiest part of compiling that lineup.
Re: Minor Matters
10762Corey (Washington): Which of these 3 pitchers currently on the Indians' 40 man roster has the best chance of ending up as a starter, Scott Moss, Sam Hentges, Carlos Vargas?
Teddy Cahill: Vargas for me. I'm a big, longtime fan of both Moss and Hentges, but I see the best combination of upside and certainty in Vargas.
Teddy Cahill: Vargas for me. I'm a big, longtime fan of both Moss and Hentges, but I see the best combination of upside and certainty in Vargas.
Re: Minor Matters
10763Mike (Honolulu): The Indians only MLB debuted 4 players in 2020 -- Daniel Johnson, Cam Hill, Triston McKenzie, and Kyle Nelson. Excluding McKenzie, do any of these remaining three players have any role on the 2021 Indians?
Teddy Cahill: I think yes. The Indians outfield depth chart is pretty wide open right now, so there's no reason to exclude Johnson, even if it's in a part-time role. And as relievers, Hill and Nelson are certainly in the mix as well. As a lefthander, Nelson especially can never be counted out. Now, are any of the three big pieces on the roster? I don't think so, but with such an open outfield picture and the fact that every team runs through a lot of arms every year, you can't discount the possibility someone grabs an opportunity and runs with it.
[Not a major endorsement of Daniel Johnson]
Teddy Cahill: I think yes. The Indians outfield depth chart is pretty wide open right now, so there's no reason to exclude Johnson, even if it's in a part-time role. And as relievers, Hill and Nelson are certainly in the mix as well. As a lefthander, Nelson especially can never be counted out. Now, are any of the three big pieces on the roster? I don't think so, but with such an open outfield picture and the fact that every team runs through a lot of arms every year, you can't discount the possibility someone grabs an opportunity and runs with it.
[Not a major endorsement of Daniel Johnson]
Re: Minor Matters
10764An optimist. Of course the Indians cost-efficient approach has been working well for years and the organization has a great reputation in the industry.
Mark (Cleveland): It seems like the Indians are taking a half-step back for the next year or two and hoping to reopen the competitive window when the young guys in the minors are ready. What's the outlook for this team once that happens? Do they have all the pieces they'll need in place?
Teddy Cahill: I wouldn't really agree with the idea that they're taking a half step back, at least not yet. If Lindor is traded and the return doesn't include win-now pieces, I might have to change that assessment, but this is a team with a Cy Young winner and MVP candidate in place for the next few years. But I would say that, yes, I think the Indians have the pieces to make a big push in a few years when the younger players are reaching the big leagues. Bieber, Plesac and McKenzie are young. Jose Ramirez is on a long-term deal. Nolan Jones should be established ahead of the big wave of younger players, whether you're talking about the one that could be playing in Double-A this year or in A ball. Over the years, this organization has been good at signing useful veterans to short-term deals to complement the core. To me, that sounds like a winning formula.
Mark (Cleveland): It seems like the Indians are taking a half-step back for the next year or two and hoping to reopen the competitive window when the young guys in the minors are ready. What's the outlook for this team once that happens? Do they have all the pieces they'll need in place?
Teddy Cahill: I wouldn't really agree with the idea that they're taking a half step back, at least not yet. If Lindor is traded and the return doesn't include win-now pieces, I might have to change that assessment, but this is a team with a Cy Young winner and MVP candidate in place for the next few years. But I would say that, yes, I think the Indians have the pieces to make a big push in a few years when the younger players are reaching the big leagues. Bieber, Plesac and McKenzie are young. Jose Ramirez is on a long-term deal. Nolan Jones should be established ahead of the big wave of younger players, whether you're talking about the one that could be playing in Double-A this year or in A ball. Over the years, this organization has been good at signing useful veterans to short-term deals to complement the core. To me, that sounds like a winning formula.
Re: Minor Matters
10765John (Shaker Heights): The Indians seem to collect young, athletic, hit-over-power infielders like many of us collected baseball cards when we were kids. Have you gotten any sense why they've been so focused on that? Is it because they believe those players are statistically more likely to be big leaguers? Is it a belief in specific aspects of their player development program? Something else? Finally, beyond those mentioned in top 10, which of those infielders stand out the most?
Teddy Cahill: I think organizationally, there is a belief in the importance of the hit tool and athleticism. The guys with big tools but who are raw and have questions about their ability to consistently make contact are riskier. I don't think this is a unique view to the Indians, but there are teams that don't see it that way or at least aren't as disciplined in their approach. And the Indians have had success with that profile - think Tyler Freeman and Brayan Rocchio. We'll see if it pays off at the big league level, but the early returns are promising. As for infielders outside the top 10, Gabriel Rodriguez is the most obvious. He was in the 10 a year ago but got squeezed out by the Clevinger trade and Gabriel Arias' arrival. As far as deeper cuts, I really like Yordys Valdes and Angel Martinez.
at least in his brief Rookie League debut season Valdes did not display much of a hit tool [179/251/247]
Teddy Cahill: I think organizationally, there is a belief in the importance of the hit tool and athleticism. The guys with big tools but who are raw and have questions about their ability to consistently make contact are riskier. I don't think this is a unique view to the Indians, but there are teams that don't see it that way or at least aren't as disciplined in their approach. And the Indians have had success with that profile - think Tyler Freeman and Brayan Rocchio. We'll see if it pays off at the big league level, but the early returns are promising. As for infielders outside the top 10, Gabriel Rodriguez is the most obvious. He was in the 10 a year ago but got squeezed out by the Clevinger trade and Gabriel Arias' arrival. As far as deeper cuts, I really like Yordys Valdes and Angel Martinez.
at least in his brief Rookie League debut season Valdes did not display much of a hit tool [179/251/247]
Re: Minor Matters
10766Logan (MI): I love this list. I think this system is very underrated and tons of upside. Do you project Rocchio and Bracho as above average big leageurs? Do they have top 100 upside? Also, Could you explain why you have Naylor over Valera? Is a knock on Valera or praise for Naylor?? Thank Teddy!
Teddy Cahill: Valera vs. Naylor was a significant point of debate among the group here as the list was being finalized. Ultimately, I don't think there's any significant separation between them. They're both Top 100 players for me. The case for Naylor is that he's a really productive hitting catcher with impressive framing ability. The case for Valera is that he's thought of as having serious upside at the plate and has drawn Juan Soto comps dating back to his amateur days. I don't think there's a wrong answer there. But the premium position Naylor is playing now and his athleticism to play third base if he needed to move out from behind the plate was the edge for me. As for Rocchio and Bracho, I would say yes. Long way to go, questions still to be answered, but they have that ability.
Teddy Cahill: Valera vs. Naylor was a significant point of debate among the group here as the list was being finalized. Ultimately, I don't think there's any significant separation between them. They're both Top 100 players for me. The case for Naylor is that he's a really productive hitting catcher with impressive framing ability. The case for Valera is that he's thought of as having serious upside at the plate and has drawn Juan Soto comps dating back to his amateur days. I don't think there's a wrong answer there. But the premium position Naylor is playing now and his athleticism to play third base if he needed to move out from behind the plate was the edge for me. As for Rocchio and Bracho, I would say yes. Long way to go, questions still to be answered, but they have that ability.
Re: Minor Matters
10767Bill B (Glen Allen, VA): Thanks for taking our questions. Does Daniel Espino become the next young Indians pitcher with high upside to work his way relatively quickly to the majors? Seems a great young talent who just needs innings... and given Cleveland's desire to shed payroll, wonder if a late 2022 ETA is possible.
Teddy Cahill: Late 2022 would be aggressive, but Espino has already forced the Indians to be more aggressive with him then they usually are. I'd peg his ETA more likely as late 2023, early 2024, though with the caveat that it's still an unknown how the organization is going to handle the lost developmental time of 2020. Espino missed out on an opportunity to log a lot of starts and establish his routine and learn what it takes to be successful over a full season. Do they want him to be able to focus on that at a lower level in 2021 or will they prioritize him facing as challenging hitters as he's ready for? I could see them taking either approach.
Teddy Cahill: Late 2022 would be aggressive, but Espino has already forced the Indians to be more aggressive with him then they usually are. I'd peg his ETA more likely as late 2023, early 2024, though with the caveat that it's still an unknown how the organization is going to handle the lost developmental time of 2020. Espino missed out on an opportunity to log a lot of starts and establish his routine and learn what it takes to be successful over a full season. Do they want him to be able to focus on that at a lower level in 2021 or will they prioritize him facing as challenging hitters as he's ready for? I could see them taking either approach.
Re: Minor Matters
10768Rod (Seattle): Wow! I don't think I have ever seen so few "Bests" that are not in the projected line-up. Any insights?
Teddy Cahill: It's maybe a little weird, but a few things are at play here. 1) the Indians don't have a lot of diversity in the top 10. Seven of the 10 spots go to middle infielders or pitchers. The best tools categories are a very diverse bunch. 2) There are some guys who have a clear carrying tool represented on the best tools. Those kinds of players don't always fare so well on the overall list. All in all, I wouldn't take much from it. It's more quirky than telling.
[has a lot to do with the lack of quality among our outfielders: the "bests" include Holmes, Benson, Kwan, Johnathan Rodriguez]
Teddy Cahill: It's maybe a little weird, but a few things are at play here. 1) the Indians don't have a lot of diversity in the top 10. Seven of the 10 spots go to middle infielders or pitchers. The best tools categories are a very diverse bunch. 2) There are some guys who have a clear carrying tool represented on the best tools. Those kinds of players don't always fare so well on the overall list. All in all, I wouldn't take much from it. It's more quirky than telling.
[has a lot to do with the lack of quality among our outfielders: the "bests" include Holmes, Benson, Kwan, Johnathan Rodriguez]
Re: Minor Matters
10769John (Shaker Heights): No one from the Indians' 2020 Draft class made the top 10. I suspect that is more a function of the depth in this farm system, correct? However, since the scouting reports don't include anyone from the draft, can you share any interesting news or updates on any of their picks?
Teddy Cahill: As a Shaker native myself, I have to make sure I get to all questions from Shaker. Yes, it's a function of the Indians not graduating anyone from their top 10 and adding a new top-10 player in Arias. You'll find Carson Tucker and Tanner Burns in the 11-15 range in the handbook. I'd say the most interesting notes I have to pass on from the draft class is that Carson Tucker and Petey Halpin both added weight/strength over the last year. Tucker especially got bigger and stronger and, as a result, the Indians think there's more power in there that he would have shown this spring if he had the opportunity.
Teddy Cahill: As a Shaker native myself, I have to make sure I get to all questions from Shaker. Yes, it's a function of the Indians not graduating anyone from their top 10 and adding a new top-10 player in Arias. You'll find Carson Tucker and Tanner Burns in the 11-15 range in the handbook. I'd say the most interesting notes I have to pass on from the draft class is that Carson Tucker and Petey Halpin both added weight/strength over the last year. Tucker especially got bigger and stronger and, as a result, the Indians think there's more power in there that he would have shown this spring if he had the opportunity.
Re: Minor Matters
10770Nancy (Tribetown): After the Clevinger trade & a great 2020 draft, when is the last time the Indians system had this much depth?
Teddy Cahill: I've been writing the Indians' prospect list since 2013 and I can't recall a time the organization has had this much depth. It's been brewing for the last couple years but it's gone to another level this year because Karinchak was the only graduation this year, the three prospects added in the Clevinger trade and the draft class. Give it another month to add in another international class and it figures to get even deeper. I personally think we aren't giving it enough credit in our organization rankings, but that comes down to some philosophical questions about depth vs. stars and proximity to the big leagues. Overall, I think it's a really impressive system and one that gives the Indians a lot of reason for optimism over the next decade.
Teddy Cahill: I've been writing the Indians' prospect list since 2013 and I can't recall a time the organization has had this much depth. It's been brewing for the last couple years but it's gone to another level this year because Karinchak was the only graduation this year, the three prospects added in the Clevinger trade and the draft class. Give it another month to add in another international class and it figures to get even deeper. I personally think we aren't giving it enough credit in our organization rankings, but that comes down to some philosophical questions about depth vs. stars and proximity to the big leagues. Overall, I think it's a really impressive system and one that gives the Indians a lot of reason for optimism over the next decade.