seagull wrote:

6. One reason the Indians wanted DeShields in the Kluber deal is they believe he is a significant upgrade over Greg Allen as a backup outfielder. The 25-year-old Allen was often used vs. lefties, and he batted only .186 (13-for-70). DeShields hit .274 vs. lefties.

Bullshit!

Indians were forced to take Deshields and his 4.6M projected salary.

Late inning defensive replacement.

Allen is cheaper.

Indians wanted DeShields. They can also get rid of him if they want to.

, 7:44 PM ET

MOOKIE BETTS
OF, BOSTON RED SOX

According to MLB.com's Jon Morosi, the Dodgers are at least as involved in Mookie Betts talks with Boston as they are with Francisco Lindor talks with the Indians at the moment.
Morosi says that's because the Indians are holding out for Gavin Lux in a Lindor deal, while the Red Sox have other priorities, most notably shedding David Price's salary. A Betts-Price trade with the Dodgers would probably net the Red Sox a couple of quality youngsters, but it wouldn't involve Lux. At this point, there's no good reason for the Red Sox to package Betts and Price, other than to line the pockets of John Henry and company. Maybe they could have used the saving on free agents earlier this winter, but the pickings are rather slim now.

RELATED: Cleveland Indians, Los Angeles Dodgers
SOURCE: MLB.com
Jan 2, 2020, 4:55 PM ET

Send help: Acquiring an outfielder should top the Indians’ to-do list

Zack Meisel 7h ago 23
CLEVELAND — The list of free-agent outfielders resembles a graveyard of former Indians’ careers.

There’s Carlos González, who batted cleanup for the Indians one day last season and was booted from the roster the next. There’s Melky Cabrera, whose defensive runs saved totals the past few years mirror the typical winter temperatures in Siberia. There’s Lonnie Chisenhall, whose calves continue to jockey for supremacy on the strain leaderboard. There are familiar faces in Rajai Davis and Leonys Martín.

Those names say a lot about the way the Indians have attempted to patch together a satisfactory outfield in recent years. Eventually, a writer must cease using the headline “Strangers in the outfield.”

The Indians employ nine outfielders on their 40-man roster, yet it remains the area of the diamond most in need of an upgrade.

Indians outfield ranks, 2019: 19th in fWAR, 25th in wRC+
Indians outfield ranks, 2018: 17th in fWAR, 21st in wRC+
The Indians solidified their infield with the signing of César Hernández — you know, provided they don’t deal away their perennial All-Star shortstop. Now, it’s time to enhance the outfield.

Indians outfield projections for 2020:

LF: 1.0 fWAR (25th in MLB)
CF: 1.1 fWAR (23rd)
RF 1.4 fWAR (21st)
Here’s what we know: Oscar Mercado is in line to play on a daily basis.

And … that’s it.

This is a 1,000-piece jigsaw puzzle. We stumbled upon two edge pieces that were already connected when we opened the box. Just looking at the heaping pile of detached pieces can trigger a migraine.

Mercado should be the everyday center fielder … unless the club deems newcomer Delino DeShields worthy of regular at-bats, in which case he could play center and Mercado would shift to a corner.

Yeah, not ideal.

The first domino: Can Franmil Reyes evade embarrassment in right field? He should receive ample opportunity to use his glove during spring training, and the Indians rave about his arm strength. Reyes has visited the Indians’ Dominican complex a few days a week this winter to work on his defensive craft.

If Reyes earns at least semi-regular playing time in right, that would open up some at-bats at the designated hitter spot, which could benefit Bobby Bradley or Jake Bauers. If Reyes remains strictly a DH, the Indians will have 1 1/2 outfield spots to fill.

That fraction is the result of Jordan Luplow’s preying on left-handed pitching (1.181 OPS in 2019, which ranked fourth in the majors behind J.D. Martinez, Nelson Cruz and Alex Bregman). Terry Francona said he wants to learn whether Luplow can prove proficient against righties, and his minor-league track record suggests it’s possible. But, until it happens, it remains another unknown in this outfield full of question marks.

For now, we know Luplow will occupy one of the corner spots anytime a southpaw even looks at the mound.

If Luplow needs a platoon partner, Tyler Naquin would be the natural choice, but he’ll likely be sidelined until summer as he recovers from major knee surgery. Corey Dickerson would have made for a nice pairing, but he signed a two-year pact with the Marlins.

Daniel Johnson has fared well against righties throughout his career, but would the Indians deem him ready on Opening Day? Francona voiced hesitation about carrying rookie hitters in April when defending Mercado’s delayed promotion last year.

It’s a bit challenging to envision how Bauers, DeShields, Greg Allen and Bradley Zimmer fit. None of the four has proved deserving of regular at-bats. The latter three share similar skill sets and seem somewhat redundant on the same roster. Zimmer is likely ticketed for Class AAA Columbus after missing much of the last two seasons with shoulder and oblique woes.

The Indians still believe in Bauers, but how much patience can they award him? He posted a .683 OPS last season, with some frightening metrics, including 25th percentile exit velocity, 21st percentile hard-hit rate and 6th percentile expected batting average and expected slugging percentage. That said, he won’t turn 25 until October and was widely considered a top-100 prospect two years ago.

Without question, though, there is everyday playing time to be claimed if the Indians opt to seek an addition via free agency or trade. And following the Corey Kluber deal, even after the club reaches arbitration settlements, the payroll figures to sit just above the $90 million mark. That’s nearly a 25 percent decrease from the 2019 Opening Day payroll, which sat more than $15 million below the 2018 Opening Day payroll.

The Indians probably aren’t going to join the pursuit of Marcell Ozuna or Nicholas Castellanos, the top two outfielders remaining in the free-agent market.

Yasiel Puig is searching for work. He posted a 101 wRC+ last season (in other words, he was the tiniest tick above league-average at the plate), as his power vanished upon his arrival to Cleveland at the trade deadline. Still, even an average or slightly above-average hitter — and one who wouldn’t need a platoon partner — would be an upgrade. He’s projected to be a 2-win player, and it sure seems like he’ll have to settle for a one- or two-year deal for a (relatively) modest salary.

Eric Thames accounted for 1.9 fWAR last season, to go along with a .247/.346/.505 slash line. He’s occasionally played outfield during his career — not particularly well — but has more experience at first base.

Domingo Santana’s horrendous fielding landed him at 0.0 fWAR last season. Kevin Pillar’s skill set isn’t too different from what the Indians already have.

The Indians could swing a trade. The Pirates have dangled Starling Marte. Perhaps the Mariners would listen on Mitch Haniger, or the Orioles on Trey Mancini or the Dodgers on Joc Pederson. Maybe the Indians could deal from their pitching depth to land the Mets’ Brandon Nimmo or the Braves’ Adam Duvall or the Cubs’ Ian Happ or the Rockies’ David Dahl or the Yankees’ Clint Frazier or the Cardinals’ Tyler O’Neill.

The Indians’ total outfield WAR projection ranks 25th in the majors, ahead of only the Giants, Rockies, Royals, Marlins and Tigers. Those five teams combined to rack up 498 losses last season. That’s not ideal company, and it illustrates why the Indians’ outfield needs a boost.

Anybody know if Haase cleared waivers?

One thing to keep in mind in all personnel decisions, which the article didn't mention, is that this season there will be 26 man rosters.

From Corey Kluber:

https://www.theplayerstribune.com/en-us ... -cleveland

Class act! Loved this:

The outpouring of support from the entire fan base to the players and their families was special. The fans and the city didn’t beat us up over losing. They supported us.

This is our team, and that's why we support it. They do their best and when they don't succeed (during the season or offseason for that matter) I feel for them.

Meisel’s Mailbox: Francisco Lindor’s future, Mike Clevinger extension ideas and a three-team race in the AL Central

Zack Meisel Jan 9, 2020 21

CLEVELAND — If there’s feeling in their fingers, Mike Clevinger, Shane Bieber or Carlos Carrasco will throw the first pitch of the Indians’ season at 1:10 p.m. ET on March 26 at Progressive Field.

The Indians’ Opening Day starter is a mystery at the moment. What about their Opening Day shortstop? As spring training approaches — pitchers and catchers report in less than five weeks — it seems more likely that Francisco Lindor will remain with the franchise that drafted him nine years ago. Or, to put it another way, no team has submitted an offer for the four-time All-Star that the Indians deem too good to refuse.

“I still have every expectation that Francisco will be our shortstop Opening Day,” Chris Antonetti said Wednesday. “I’m more confident today in saying that, as more of the offseason has passed. But that’s still our expectation.”

All it requires is one phone call or one late night “U up?” text from Dodgers president Andrew Friedman to threaten Antonetti’s firm stance, of course. But if Lindor’s sticking around, will the Indians surround him with some more talent? Where does that leave the club in the AL Central pecking order?

Let’s tackle that and more in this installment of Meisel’s Mailbox.

With Chicago’s aggressiveness this offseason and Minnesota coming off a 101-win season, do you see 2020 becoming a true three-team race for the Central? Does Chicago have the pitching/bullpen to make it a three-team affair? — Kevin Y.

Each team has flaws, but I think you could craft a case for any of the three winning the division.

Chicago’s lineup should be one of the most potent in the league for at least the next few years. In preparation for the Futures Game in July, I heard Jim Thome rave about Luis Robert until he was out of breath. The White Sox pitching staff seems a bit thin, though. They need Lucas Giolito to repeat as a front-line starter, Dylan Cease to make strides and Michael Kopech to make a healthy return. Let’s not pretend as though Dallas Keuchel and Gio Gonzalez are still top-end starters. Plus, the bullpen could use some reinforcements, even after the addition of Steve Cishek, who is in search of his 10th consecutive effective season. Their path to a division title isn’t too different from how the Twins rose to prominence last year.

I’m surprised the Twins haven’t been more aggressive in upgrading their rotation. Rich Hill and Homer Bailey are fine, but Hill will be sidelined until the summer and the Twins already had a crop of mid/back-end starters. Will they slug 300-plus home runs again? Their lineup remains their strength — and even more so should they add Josh Donaldson — but it wouldn’t be surprising to see their win total tumble a bit from last year’s mark of 101.

As for the Indians, if the front office carries this roster — backed by a $90-ish million payroll — to Opening Day, we can point to several significant question marks in the lineup. The outfield figures to consist of some grab bag including Oscar Mercado, Jordan Luplow, Delino DeShields and maybe Franmil Reyes, Jake Bauers, Greg Allen, Bradley Zimmer or Daniel Johnson. How that unfolds will determine the primary occupant of the designated hitter spot. The youth of the pitching staff presents some uncertainty as well, though there’s enough depth to overcome some regression from certain hurlers.

I can envision a three-team race, with the teams beating up on each other and then feasting on the Royals and Tigers. It would be healthy for the division (and the sport in general), but perhaps not so much for the fans and their blood pressure.

Here’s how Antonetti surveys the situation:

“We know our division continues to improve. The Twins are the defending champs and we know we need to knock them off to get back to where we want to be. And the White Sox have improved a lot over the course of the last few months. But we do feel really good about the group of guys we have that we brought back from last year and the guys that we’ve added to that mix.”

Chances the Indians can sign Shane Bieber, Mike Clevinger or both to long-term deals before the season starts? Any examples of what those deals might look like? Or are both of them interested in the Trevor Bauer one year deal route? — Matt H.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see the front office engage either or both pitchers about an extension in the coming weeks. (And I don’t think either guy has any intention of following Bauer’s one-year-at-a-time plan.)

Clevinger’s age complicates his situation a bit. He turned 29 a few weeks ago and he has three years of control remaining. Will he be able to land a mega deal at the age of 32? Will a new CBA influence that?

And if you’re the Indians, how much money do you want to guarantee him into his mid-30s? I could see a scenario in which they buy out his three arbitration years — at a price enticing enough for him to bite — and then tack on either a fourth year plus a club option year or just two club option years. But, again, anything Clevinger agrees to could prevent him from ever signing a long-term deal on the open market, so it could be tricky to pinpoint the proper alignment.

If they can’t strike an agreement this winter, Clevinger could become one of the most coveted candidates on the trade market next winter.

(And no, they are not shopping Clevinger this winter. He falls into the category of “I really like my house and could see myself living in it for the next 20 years, but if someone calls me and offers three times what I paid for it, sure, I’ll call Two Men and a Truck right now.” Even Antonetti said: “I can’t control the conduct of other teams, as far as them calling us with interest and wanting to explore things.”)

As for Bieber, the Indians control him for five more seasons, so any offer would likely be to cover those five seasons and then tack on a club option year or two. Bieber’s incentive would be to start earning more than the league minimum, which, for a guy who finished fourth in the Cy Young voting, is certainly warranted.

With Eric Haase DFA, what’s the next move for another catcher? They can’t have just two catchers on the 40-man roster and there is no one currently in the minor leagues that could fulfill that role. Is the Haase DFA related at all to the possibility that the Dodgers have Keibert Ruiz? — David W.

The Indians dealt Haase to the Tigers on Wednesday in exchange for cash considerations. They’ll almost certainly add a catcher to the mix — someone who can head to Class AAA Columbus and fill in at the major-league level in the event of an injury — between now and spring training. Bo Naylor is the club’s top catching prospect, but he doesn’t even turn 20 until late February, so they need some insurance in the upper levels of the minors.

If the Dodgers and Indians ever consummated a deal involving Lindor, Ruiz could certainly be a part of the trade package, but his existence had no bearing on the (admittedly odd, given the number of outfielders and relievers on the 40-man) decision with Haase.


(Adam Glanzman / Getty Images)
The Indians got a lot of production last year from three young pitchers — Civale, Plesac and Plutko — whose peripherals don’t exactly back up their performance. While there’s talent there, does it give you any hesitation that the rotation may not be as much of a strength for the team in 2020? There are a lot of reasons each could regress, and when coupled with Cookie’s uncertain performance, could leave the team thin after dealing Kluber and Bauer. — Ethan S.

Hesitation? Sure. There’s always some uncertainty with young players. On the position player side, a similar case could be made when forecasting Oscar Mercado’s sophomore season. The Indians’ pitching depth, though, can help alleviate some of those potential growing pains.

If someone struggles or suffers an injury, the Indians can turn to Logan Allen, a former top-100 prospect. Or Triston McKenzie, the organization’s No. 2 prospect. Or Scott Moss, a southpaw with sterling minor-league numbers. Or Jefry Rodriguez. Or Eli Morgan. Or Adam Scott. They’re all unknowns to an extent, but with the way the Indians produce quality pitchers, it stands to reason that Carl Willis, Ruben Niebla and Brian Sweeney could help any of them tap into their potential in 2020.

Clevinger and Bieber must anchor the group. The Indians remain confident that Carrasco can navigate a full season as a starter (and he’s eager as ever for the season to begin). Civale was the most impressive newcomer last season. Plesac has spent the winter training with Clevinger in Florida.

I’m not sure who will emerge as the best quintet by midseason, but there’s reason to believe the rotation should remain a strength, even if certain guys regress a bit.

How do you see the bullpen situation playing out? Are they more likely to sign an arm, move someone like Jefry/Plesac there, or go with minor league options like Sandlin, Nelson, etc.? — Jack L.

Will the 3-batter rule for relief pitchers greatly affect the roster construction this year, or simply Tito’s use of the bullpen? — Chris W.

Will it change the way Francona manages? Let’s ask him …

“I think you have to because you can’t — once you bring in a pitcher in an inning, I mean, you’re with him for three hitters. Shoot, there’s times where we’ve elected to bring in a young kid maybe if there’s a base open and if he’s wild, knowing that we can go get him. You know, things like that. I mean, I’m even talking about developing guys in the bullpen. Now when you bring a guy in, he’s going to have to get them out or not get them out and the game can be over before you can go make another move. Again, I don’t understand it. I don’t think I’m ever going to. But we will certainly do the best we can and adapt and I’m sure when we get to spring training, we’ll spend a ton of time on the best way to embrace it, because when the season starts, nobody’s going to care if I like it or dislike it.”

Righties compiled an .889 OPS against Oliver Pérez last year. Lefties compiled a .943 OPS against Adam Cimber. There might be some trial and error with how Francona deploys those two. James Karinchak and Emmanuel Clase could become even more valuable, because they can pump their fastballs past any lefty or righty. (Side note: I have no idea what to expect from James Hoyt or Hunter Wood or Phil Maton.)

The Indians do have plenty of depth in the upper levels of the minors, which leads me to three thoughts:

1. At some point in 2020, Nick Sandlin, Kyle Nelson, Robert Broom, Cam Hill and/or Jared Robinson will join the bullpen.

2. They’ll likely add a veteran reliever or two on a non-roster deal, just to add to the spring competition, but probably not a free agent of great significance.

3. It wouldn’t be surprising if, given the rotation depth (and the three-batter rule), someone such as Rodriguez or McKenzie or Allen wound up in the bullpen in August and/or September.

As for the 3 hitter rule - every team will have the same problem. I like it - the only ones who do not benefit are advertisers who run commercials during the zillion pitcher changes.

All it requires is one phone call or one late night “U up?” text from Dodgers president Andrew Friedman to threaten Antonetti’s firm stance, of course. But if Lindor’s sticking around, will the Indians surround him with some more talent? Where does that leave the club in the AL Central pecking order?

This sums it up. Talk is cheap. Everyone has their price at all times.

As for the division title, I keep it simple.

Our rotation is the best in the division, not even close.

So if Jose Ramirez has just a normal season again, with Cesar Hernandez being an upgrade over Kipnis, I can easily see us contending and winning. I'd add Franmil for an entire season in as a factore for good measure.

That pitching thing....is still darn important.

Very interesting interview with one of our top prospects. I am posting it here instead of Minors folder cause I find it interesting how Indians are just churning out pitching prospects one after another using this technology. And how this kid is already so immersed in it at just 19 years old.

-

A Conversation With Cleveland Indians Pitching Prospect Ethan Hankins

by David Laurila

January 16, 2020

Ethan Hankins has one of the highest ceilings in Cleveland’s pitching pipeline. The 6-foot-6 right-hander possesses a first-round pedigree — he went 35th overall in 2018 — and a heater that sits mid-90s with late life. Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel ranked him 15th in Cleveland’s system last year. Moreover, he’s wise beyond his years. Still just 19 years old, Hankins is studious enough about his craft that he could reasonably be referred to as a pitching nerd.

Hankins split his first full professional campaign between Short-season Mahoning Valley and Low-A Lake County, logging a 2.55 ERA and fanning 71 batters in 60 innings. No less impressive are the strides he’s continued to make between the ears. The former Forsythe, Georgia prep may have bypassed Vanderbilt University to sign with the Indians, but his quest for knowledge has by no means waned. Influenced heavily by his off-season experiences at Full Count Baseball, it continues unabated.

Hankins discussed his cerebral approach, and the improvements he’s made to his repertoire, late in the 2019 season.

———

David Laurila: Is pitching more of an art, or more of a science?

Ethan Hankins: “The game we’re playing right now, with all the analytical stuff we have access to, and use — especially with the Indians — it’s starting to become more of a science. I feel like it used to be more an art. Even a few years ago. But it’s been growing into something that can be called a science, because of the average velocities, the spin efficiencies, true spin, 2D spin, 3D spin. There are all of these numbers that can be beneficial if you know how to use them in the right way.“

Laurila: It sounds like you lean science.

Hankins: “Yes, but that’s not because the Indians have thrown it in my face. It’s because I’ve taken to learning how these numbers can benefit you. Granted, the Indians help a lot. They obviously have all of this knowledge. But not everybody uses it. We don’t get pressured to use it.”

Laurila: How do you use it?

Hankins: “There are a million different ways that… oh gosh. I’d say that I’m using it to develop my offspeed, more than anything. My curveball has made a huge jump over the past year. I don’t credit that solely to the Rapsodo, or any of the other technology we have access to, but that does give you a lot of insight. It tells you, ‘This is where you are.’ From there, you’re able to say, ‘OK, I want to be here; I want this pitch to have this much efficiency. This is the direction I want.’

“The information is really valuable, but you have to be very careful with how you’re using it. You have to figure out what works for you. If you see that your numbers are this, but you want them to be that… you may not be heading in the right direction. You might be overthinking it, because while your numbers aren’t good on paper, that pitch might be getting a swing-and-miss nine times out of 10. The pitch you think you want to throw might get a swing-and-miss three times out of 10.”

Laurila: That said, how do you go about making the data actionable? Wanting to improve something like spin efficiency, or spin axis, isn’t the same as actually doing it.

Hankins: “There are different mechanical changes, different tweaks, and it’s not all your upper half. Your foundation is your bottom half. Your bottom half can make you go a lot of different ways with your arm. For me, it’s been that lower half — my load on my back side — that’s really increased the depth on my curveball. I’ve been able to get on top of it more. I’ve been able to throw it harder, because I’m more structured, more directional to he plate.

“It’s also a matter of consistency. It’s hard to be perfectly consistent, especially at this level. So it’s almost a mental cue thing. It can be, ‘I want to be here with my hand,’ Or it can be, ‘My arm needs to be a little bit more on top.’ You might recognize that your front shoulder is flying open, causing you to miss arm side. Making little tweaks can make a huge difference.”

Laurila: Have you increased the spin rate on any of your pitches?

Hankins: “Technically, yes. But that’s not really a goal. I’m not trying to rip 3,500 revolutions per minute, or anything like that. As long as I’m able to make my curveball break as much as I possibly can, and have it mirror my fastball — be able to tunnel them off of each other — that’s the end goal. I want to have a fastball that rises, and a curveball that goes straight down as much I can make it go straight down with my low-three-quarters arm slot. That’s my natural slot. I’ve pretty much been chilling there my whole life.”

Laurila: How are you balancing tunneling and break? Increasing one can often decrease the other.

Hankins: “It’s kind of just having that feel for a fastball. It’s thinking ‘fastball, fastball, fastball,’ knowing what you have to do when you get to the point where the ball is flying out of your hand. It’s impossible, according to science, to… there is no release point. You can’t control where you release the ball. The ball just naturally flies out of your hand. You can adjust where your arm wants to be when the ball flies out, but if the ball wants to fly out of your hand, it’s going to fly out out of your hand.”

Laurila: Have you had an opportunity to talk to Trevor Bauer?

Hankins: “I haven’t, although I’ve talked to Cody Buckel a lot. He’s good friends with Trevor, and talking to him is like talking to Trevor. He’s really big into Driveline. I’ll ask him a question, and we’ll go on that question, build off that question, for 30 minutes to an hour. Cody is an extremely smart guy when it comes to pitching and pitch design. Everything along that line.”

Laurila: Have you been to Driveline?

Hankins: “I haven’t, but back home we have our own system, our own program, which is kind of like Driveline. It’s called Full Count, and I’ve been going there since my sophomore year. A lot of guys in North Georgia go there, including a bunch of big-leaguers. We have access to a lot of the same things I have with the Indians. There are a lot of great baseball minds there that have experience with Rapsodo, Edgertronic… everything. I actually work there in the off-season.”

Laurila: In what capacity?

Hankins: “I work with kids — younger kids, high school kids — trying to pass along the knowledge I’ve gained over the years, including from the Indians. We do weighted balls. We do… I mean, it’s essentially the same type of goals they have at Driveline. Everybody wants to throw harder —- everybody wants to throw gas — but we want to develop guys as pitchers, not just to throw hard. We talk about making pitches better, and how to pitch. Like what to look for with guys’ swings. If he’s late on a fastball, what do you do? Pitching is more than just throwing hard.”

Laurila: What have you topped out at?

Hankins: “I’ve been up to 98 this year, but I’m not worried about top velocity. What I want is to maintain my velocity from the first inning throughout how many I go that day.”

Laurila: What about your spin rate?

Hankins: “I’ve been between 2,600 and 2,700. I get ride, but because I throw from a lower arm slot it’s not a consistent ride. You have guys like James Karinchak who throw from up here [a high arm slot] and get like 30 inches of vertical ride. It will look like the ball is skimming the ground, but really, it’s up in your eyes.”

Laurila: What are you throwing besides a four-seamer and a curveball?

Hankins: “A changeup, which I feel is my best pitch when it’s on, and a slider. My slider is a pitch I’ve been working on, but not working-on-working-on. That’s because my curveball was further along when I first got drafted. They were like, ‘OK, we’re going to focus on your curveball.’ My slider is going to come along once I get more feel for it. I need to better understand what to look for with ‘my slider.’

“Different guys are different. Like Chris Sale. His slider is big and sweepy. He can make it slower, or he can make it faster. I don’t have that type of feel yet. I also don’t want mine to be like his. I want mine to be more of a Verlander slider — short, sharp, and 86 [mph]. Almost like a cutter, but with depth. Short and sweet, with just enough to miss a barrel.”

Laurila: You said your changeup is your best pitch when it’s on. What’s the story behind it?

Hankins: “It’s a circle change, and Trevor Hoffman taught it to me. Honestly, he didn’t even mean to. It was during the Perfect Game All-American game. I was throwing a bullpen, and he was standing there. He said, ‘Is that a changeup?’ I was like, ‘Yeah; it’s not very good.’ He goes, ‘Why don’t you try to throw it like this? This is how I threw mine.’ I said, ‘OK’ So I did, and it went straight down. I was like, I’m going to stick with this.’

“It’s progressively gotten better and better. It’s to the point of beyond words that can explain how happy I am with it. That’s something I’ve always wanted to throw, but it had always been like a BP fastball. It was 83-84. Now it’s like 88-90 with good depth. Sometimes it gets classified as a sinker.”

Laurila: You said it’s a circle?

Hankins: “Yes. There’s nothing all that funky about the grip. I just let it roll out of my hand like a regular circle changeup. There’s not… like if I over-pronate, I tend to fly open. It’s kind of like a mental thing where I’m trying to break it more, which isn’t what I should be doing. Your arm naturally pronates. It turns over that way, so when I over-pronate, it just sails on me. I miss really bad. You don’t want miss really bad. Right?”

Ahhhh… Analytics!!!!

The Indians’ bullpen could be fun — and young — in 2020

Zack Meisel Jan 16, 2020 21
CLEVELAND — Every bullpen experiences some turnover from year to year. The Indians bid farewell to Tyler Clippard, Nick Goody, Tyler Olson, Dan Otero and A.J. Cole this winter.

Of the seven relievers on the club’s 2019 Opening Day roster, only three — Brad Hand, Oliver Pérez and Adam Cimber — are expected to break camp with the club in late March.

There’s a wave of youth headed toward Cleveland’s bullpen. A group of minor-league relievers appears poised for a major-league opportunity at some point in 2020 after posting sterling statistics at Lynchburg, Akron and Columbus. Two young, hard-throwing, big league-ready pieces could also push the potential of the Indians’ pen to new heights. And, given the team’s starting pitching depth, it’s possible a member or two of that brigade joins the bullpen come summertime.

There’s plenty of uncertainty with this area of the roster, but there’s a ton of promise, too. Let’s take a closer look.

Let’s just pretend the second half of 2019 never happened
Brad Hand

We can use the All-Star break as an arbitrary endpoint to illustrate Hand’s Jekyll and Hyde-like 2019 season.

First half: .200/.265/.304 opponent slash line, 2.17 ERA
Second half: .310/.383/.512 opponent slash line, 5.40 ERA

The first sign of trouble surfaced on June 25, when, in his fifth outing in six nights, he surrendered five runs to the Royals in the ninth inning. He had allowed four runs in his previous 35 appearances to start the season.

He earned a 10-day reprieve that included the All-Star break, but in mid-August, he recorded four consecutive rough outings, including three blown saves. He only pitched once after Sept. 8, as the Indians diagnosed him with a tired arm. His fastball velocity certainly reflected that malady, as it dipped below 91 mph in his final two appearances of August.

Overall, Hand maintained an elite strikeout rate in 2019, ranking in the top 5 percent of the league. His fastball lost a bit of zip, tumbling to an average of 92.7 mph in 2019 from 93.8 mph in 2018.
2016: 30.8% K rate, 28.8% swing-and-miss rate
2017: 33.5% K rate, 30.9% swing-and-miss rate
2018: 34.4% K rate, 32.3% swing-and-miss rate
2019: 35.4% K rate, 30.7% swing-and-miss rate

If his left arm avoids another midseason siesta, Hand could be equipped to again anchor the Indians’ bullpen. And this season, he could have some more help in the late innings. But keep in mind, only one other pitcher has made more appearances in the past four seasons: Bryan Shaw.

The two kids with fireball-spewing cannons for right arms
Emmanuel Clase, James Karinchak

They’re young, they make radar guns malfunction, and there’s reason to believe the triumvirate of Carl Willis, Ruben Niebla and Brian Sweeney can help them tap into their potential. If Clase and Karinchak stick, it’s a safe bet the Indians’ bullpen won’t again rank last in the majors in average fastball velocity.

Oh, relievers must now face three batters? Not sure you want to trust your lefty specialist to navigate his way through the middle of an opposing lineup? OK, then call upon Clase to fling his 101-mph cutter, a pitch that doesn’t discriminate against lefties or righties. It just whizzes past any hitter standing beside its path. Clase ranked third in the majors in average fastball velocity in 2019 and ranked in the 97th percentile in fastball spin.

Karinchak made a brief cameo with the Indians in September. Before that, he racked up 74 strikeouts in 30 1/3 innings in the minors. He has a well-regarded fastball (described by teammate Adam Plutko as “freaking fuzz”), a curveball that plummets from the sky to the dirt like a raindrop and a warmup routine that has him mimicking his delivery in the bullpen during the first inning. Even Karinchak said it himself in September: “If I execute pitches, they usually don’t hit them.”

The two possess loads of upside. The downside, of course, is their combined major-league innings total — 28 2/3 — and any growing pains that might surface during their first full season in the majors.

The beacon of stability
Nick Wittgren

In an unheralded transaction last February, the Indians acquired their most consistent reliever of 2019. The metrics paint a messy portrait: a pedestrian fastball velocity and spin and an alarming exit velocity and hard-hit rate. But the results offer a different tale.

Wittgren posted a 2.81 ERA last season and a 2.94 ERA the previous year.

2016: 3.14 ERA, 3.67 FIP
2017: 4.68 ERA, 3.58 FIP
2018: 2.94 ERA, 3.13 FIP
2019: 2.81 ERA, 4.17 FIP

Think of FIP (fielding independent pitching) as a measure of the factors a pitcher can control on the mound. His career-worst mark in that category last season (despite a career-best ERA) reflects some of those metrics: When hitters made contact against him, they often pummeled the baseball. Like many pitchers during the year of the Simply Orange baseball, Wittgren’s home run rate soared.

Still, he served as perhaps the club’s most reliable reliever from start to finish. He should be one of Francona’s most trusted hurlers at the start of the season. Oliver Pérez. (Scott R. Galvin / USA Today)
The two staring at a troublesome new rule
Oliver Pérez, Adam Cimber

LHB vs. Pérez in 2019: a Leonys Martín-like .207/.274/.333 slash line
RHB vs. Pérez in 2019: a Francisco Lindor-like .286/.346/.543 slash line

LHB vs. Cimber in 2019: a 2018 José Ramírez-like .296/.387/.556 slash line
RHB vs. Cimber in 2019: a Greg Allen-like .244/.304/.341 slash line

Cimber excels when he places his sinker and slider in spots that trigger weak contact. He thrives on deception, with his submarine delivery style, though left-handed hitters didn’t seem to have trouble picking up the ball last year while Cimber’s knuckles scraped the dirt.

This will be Pérez’s 18th season in the majors, a record for a Mexican player, and a meaningful milestone to the 38-year-old. His $3 million salary for 2020 kicked in when he made his 60th appearance last season.

Terry Francona will have to determine the most effective ways to deploy Cimber and Pérez, now that every outing comes with a three-batter minimum (or the completion of an inning).

“His ability to mix and match guys, he’s unbelievable at that, so it takes a tool out of his toolbox,” Indians GM Mike Chernoff said. “But he’s a creative guy. He’ll find other ways to do it.”

Francona has voiced his displeasure with the new rule. He has asked the front office to send him information on how the rule might influence his managing and how he can coexist with it.

“I’m not a fan,” he said. … “It’s a hard one for me. I’m struggling with this.

“Once you bring in a pitcher in an inning, I mean, you’re with him for three hitters. Shoot, there’s times where we’ve elected to bring in a young kid maybe if there’s a base open and if he’s wild, knowing that we can go get him. Things like that. I mean, I’m even talking about developing guys in the bullpen. Now when you bring a guy in, he’s going to have to get them out or not get them out and the game can be over before you can go make another move. Again, I don’t understand it. I don’t think I’m ever going to. But we will certainly do the best we can and adapt and I’m sure when we get to spring training, we’ll spend a ton of time on the best way to embrace it, because when the season starts, nobody’s going to care if I like it or dislike it.”

Will the rule change how the Indians construct their roster?

“We’ll have to see. Over time, it may change it,” Chernoff said. “When something like that happens more abruptly, you don’t necessarily want to overreact or change your roster or anything like that. Especially with the way Tito handles a bullpen, where he was so good at mixing and matching, we want to make sure he has the right pieces to execute whatever plan he wants to execute, so I could see it potentially changing over time.”

The three unknown right-handed commodities
Hunter Wood, James Hoyt, Phil Maton

We could just slap a bunch of question marks onto this section, but you pay for this service. We owe you analysis. So, instead, we’ll say this:

[shrug emoji]

OK, Wood owns an encouraging track record and an effective fastball, and he’s only 26. Hoyt is 33 but has logged only 80 big-league innings and only 8 2/3 since 2017. For the Indians to reserve him a 40-man roster spot for so long indicates they believe in his ability. He did rack up a ton of strikeouts with the Astros in a previous life. Maton will turn 27 on Opening Day Eve. He’s another righty with a nifty strikeout rate and glistening minor-league numbers. His fastball clocks in at an average of 91 mph, but he has elite spin on both that pitch and his curveball.

Any of these three could evolve into a steady force in the bullpen, or be shown the exit.

The kids waiting for a chance
Cam Hill, Kyle Nelson, Nick Sandlin, Jared Robinson, Robert Broom

There’s much more to life than ERA and strikeout rate, but here’s a sampling of what the quintet produced in those areas last season.

Hill: 3.58 ERA, 13.2 K/9
Opponent slash line: .223/.304/.372

Nelson: 2.28 ERA, 13.1 K/9
Opponent slash line: .169/.254/.313

Sandlin: 2.39 ERA, 13.0 K/9
Opponent slash line: .194/.321/.333

Robinson: 3.34 ERA, 12.5 K/9
Opponent slash line: .217/.317/.349

Broom: 0.73 ERA, 10.2 K/9
Opponent slash line: .149/.247/.200

All but Broom reached Triple-A last season, and all could knock down the big-league door in 2020.

(Top photo of James Karinchak: Frank Jansky / Getty Images)

Very interesting interview with one of our top prospects. I am posting it here instead of Minors folder cause I find it interesting how Indians are just churning out pitching prospects one after another using this technology. And how this kid is already so immersed in it at just 19 years old.


Then there's this:

Trevor Hoffman taught it to me. Honestly, he didn’t even mean to. It was during the Perfect Game All-American game. I was throwing a bullpen, and he was standing there. He said, ‘Is that a changeup?’ I was like, ‘Yeah; it’s not very good.’ He goes, ‘Why don’t you try to throw it like this? This is how I threw mine.’ I said, ‘OK’ So I did, and it went straight down. I was like, I’m going to stick with this.’

Just pure chance!

-

Runs for and Runs against are the most important stats in baseball.

Wondering how much the 3 batter rule and the 26 man roster will change run production.