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by TFIR
Cleveland Indians 2020 roster projection 1.0: The post-Kluber era
By Zack Meisel Dec 19, 2019 30
CLEVELAND — A year ago, the Indians’ roster underwent a face lift. Of the 25 members of the 2018 Opening Day team, only nine made the cut for Opening Day 2019.
There could be a similar transformation this winter. It’s likely that Carlos Carrasco, Mike Clevinger, Shane Bieber, Brad Hand, Roberto Pérez, Carlos Santana, José Ramírez, Jordan Luplow, Oliver Pérez and Adam Cimber will return. That’s 10. Jake Bauers and Greg Allen could nudge that total to 12. (Keep in mind, Francisco Lindor was sidelined at the start of the 2019 season.)
The Indians still need a second baseman. Their outfield is a jumbled mess. There figures to be competition for the final spot or two in both the rotation and the bullpen.
Even the most accurate forecast for the team’s 2020 Opening Day roster is sure to evolve in the next few months. That won’t stop us from presenting our best guesses, though. Teams will operate with 26-man rosters in 2020, with that number increasing to 28 in September. We’ll update this periodically throughout the offseason and during spring training.
(Note: This first version is admittedly a bit conservative, since there are still many directions the front office could travel to bolster the roster.)
Catchers (2): Roberto Pérez, Sandy León
The Indians preferred León’s defense to Kevin Plawecki’s, even though León’s bat has been plastered on the side of milk cartons since 2016 and he’ll earn about $500,000 more than Plawecki was projected to make via arbitration. Pérez is expected to fully recover from his October ankle surgery before he arrives in Arizona for spring training, where he’ll begin his bid to duplicate a Gold Glove campaign that also included an offensive breakout.
“That was one of the most exciting things that’s happened in a long time,” Terry Francona said of Pérez’s Gold Glove recognition, “because I know how much he cares about being good defensively.”
Don’t forget about Eric Haase. The poor guy has been biding his time at Triple-A for three years. The Indians would like him to make more consistent contact at the plate.
Others on the 40-man: Haase
Infielders (6): Carlos Santana, Francisco Lindor, José Ramírez, Christian Arroyo, Andrew Velazquez, César Hernandez
This is the most likely landing spot for an external addition, whether via trade or free agency. Of course, a Lindor trade would lead to plenty of shuffling.
The Indians prefer to keep Ramírez at third base for now, which indicates they may believe top prospect Nolan Jones is still a year from contributing at the major-league level. Still, Ramírez’s willingness to shift to second base provides the front office with some flexibility in finding another infield solution.
Odds are, they’ll sign a free agent to play second base. For now, we’ll guess César Hernandez, a 29-year-old switch-hitter projected to be about a league-average hitter with a solid on-base percentage. He posted a .780 OPS against right-handed pitching in 2019.
Arroyo figures to be in the mix, as he’s out of options, but it’s difficult to determine how he fits. The Indians have yet to see him play since acquiring him from Tampa in July. Yu Chang should receive plenty of attention in spring training, too.
Franmil Reyes’ aim to play some outfield could create an opening at DH/1B for Bobby Bradley or Jake Bauers. With Mike Freeman designated for assignment, Velazquez assumes the utility infielder role.
Others on the 40-man: Chang, Bradley
(David Richard / USA Today)
Outfielders (5): Oscar Mercado, Jordan Luplow, Franmil Reyes, Jake Bauers, Delino DeShields
We think Mercado will be the center fielder. Beyond that, the complexion of the outfield is anyone’s guess.
Luplow will play against left-handed pitching, and Francona indicated he wants to learn once and for all whether Luplow can stick against righties, too.
Reyes has spent time this offseason at the team’s Dominican academy, working on his outfield ability and trying to find the right weight that makes him more agile but keeps him just as powerful. His play in right field should be a central storyline of the spring, since his ultimate placement will have a ripple effect on the rest of the defensive arrangement.
Bauers can play left field or first base, but needs to prove he can hit well enough to justify either. Greg Allen remains a candidate for a reserve role because he can play all three outfield spots and switch-hit, but he’s a bit redundant with DeShields in the fold. So is Bradley Zimmer, who faces an uphill battle toward a roster spot after his lengthy recovery from 2018 shoulder surgery.
And then there’s Daniel Johnson. Tyler Naquin won’t be ready for Opening Day, and if Luplow needs a platoon partner — and if the Indians don’t acquire anyone via trade or free agency — Johnson seems like an ideal fit. He posted a .311/.368/.538 slash line against right-handed pitching at Double-A Akron and Triple-A Columbus last season.
For now, though, we’ll presume Johnson starts the season in Columbus. This is an area of the roster that might undergo some changes before Opening Day.
Others on the 40-man: Zimmer, Allen, Naquin, Johnson
Starting pitchers (5): Mike Clevinger, Shane Bieber, Carlos Carrasco, Adam Plutko, Aaron Civale
A year ago, the Indians had no expectation of Aaron Civale or Zach Plesac contributing to the major-league club. Now, they’ll be relying on them.
Even without Corey Kluber, there are reinforcements should anyone falter or fall victim to the injury bug. The Indians have 12 starting pitchers on the 40-man roster, and all but two could be ready to provide a lift in 2020.
The team is preparing for Carrasco to start, but his health will obviously dictate things. Don’t be surprised if the Indians approach Clevinger and Bieber with conversations about long-term extensions in February, though the two might have blinders on after watching Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg land mega deals.
Plutko is out of options, so we’ll go with him as a safe choice here. It’s possible that the Triple-A Columbus rotation starts out with one of Civale or Plesac, Triston McKenzie, Logan Allen, Jefry Rodriguez and Scott Moss, which would be a better quintet than at least a handful of major-league rotations.
Others on the 40-man: Plesac, McKenzie, Allen, Moss, Rodriguez, Sam Hentges, Jean Carlos Mejia
Relievers (8): Brad Hand, Nick Wittgren, Oliver Pérez, Adam Cimber, James Hoyt, Emmanuel Clase, James Karinchak, Hunter Wood
The Indians need Hand to return to form for this group to prove sufficient. Pérez and Cimber will have to adapt to the new rule that requires all pitchers to either face three batters or reach the end of an inning. The team is intrigued by Hoyt, as evidenced by their seemingly weekly practice of cutting ties with him and then immediately reuniting with him.
Karinchak and Clase are the wild cards, armed with ability that could have them blossom into late-inning firemen. It wouldn’t be surprising if the club added another lefty to the group; keep an eye out for minor-leaguer Kyle Nelson.
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