It might, and maybe he was referring to having Brantley hitting in the lineup so he would get better pitches.

the team record, it's the same or similar to last season.

Thanks for the reminder
And this is without Kluber and Carrasco and Clevinger for major stretches and Bauer well off last year's game
Great job Antonelli and Friends!

Look, same or similar record but last year they were coasting and it was pretty annoying.

All to see it go flat in the playoffs.

Crazy to say, but this way is better. We are breaking in new kids at the same time having a pennant chase to entertain us.

We couldn't do worse in the postseason than last year. So what the hell?

Francisco Lindor’s words ring true: Paul Hoynes rant of the week
Today 5:05 AM
The Indians have brought a spring-training prediction of Francisco Lindor into focus. (Joe Robbins, Getty Images)
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The Indians have brought a spring-training prediction of Francisco Lindor into focus. (Joe Robbins, Getty Images)

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By Paul Hoynes, cleveland.com

CLEVELAND, Ohio -- In March it sounded like spin. The naive words of a talented player trying to pretend that ownership and the front office didn’t trade away the heart of the ballclub in the offseason to save money.

Today there is nothing naive about what Francisco Lindor said concerning the Indians in spring training. He said big names and big salaries don’t always matter. While admitting there is no substitute for talent, he believed a team of good players, pulling on the same end of the rope, could still accomplish big things.


Thinking about it even now, it sounds naive. But the Indians have made it happen.

Oscar Mercado, Zack Plesac, Jake Bauers, Jordan Luplow, Mike Freeman, Kevin Plawecki, A.J. Cole, Nick Goody, Adam Cimber and Nick Wittgren aren’t exactly household names in or outside the baseball universe. But those players and a lot of others have helped the Indians go 28-12 since the start of June, pressure the Twins in the AL Central and take over the AL’s top wild card spot.

They’ve done it despite losing key players to injuries and illness. That included Lindor, who missed spring training and a good chunk of April because of ankle and calf injuries.

“I’ve felt that way since Day One,” said Lindor. "A lot of people were doubting that. On a team you need performers. You need people who are going to perform when the lights are on. I don’t care what your name is. I don’t care where you come from. I don’t care if you’re the best player or not, when the lights are on you have to perform.

“How do you perform? By moving runners. By making the routine plays. By running the bases right. By helping your team in the dugout. That’s performing.”

Lindor knows there will always be room for greatness on any roster. But greatness on a baseball field, like in any business, is limited to a few.


“A baller is someone who hits 40 or 50 homers, hits .280 or .300,” said Lindor. “If you do that, you’ve balled out, you did great that year. But if you have 15 or 20 performers, who perform when the lights go on, you’ll be fine. You’ll be fine.”

Brad Hand’s rise from waiver-wire resident to slider-slinging All-Star

Zack Meisel 48m ago

CLEVELAND — Brad Hand’s slider winds through the air like a boomerang before it dives toward the dirt surrounding home plate. Hitters know it’s headed their way, but they remain helpless.

Wave at it and look foolish. Watch it sail past and it might just float its way into the strike zone. There’s a reason Hand throws his slider more than half the time.

But there might be another weapon lurking in Hand’s, well, hand.

Years ago, Hand’s most trustworthy out pitch was a 12-to-6 curveball. And he has considered dusting it off and bringing it out of retirement this season. At some point, he might just spring it on an unsuspecting hitter.

“It’s still there,” Hand said. “I could throw it.”

He ditched the curveball a few years ago in favor of the slider. Hand’s development of the new pitch coincided with his rise from waiver-wire resident to perennial All-Star.

For years, Hand bounced between a starting role and long relief with the Marlins. His strikeout rate was unimpressive. He allowed a bunch of hits. He simply tried to stick at the big-league level, but it proved to be a struggle.

In 2015, he started messing around with a slider in his spare time. He had temporarily shifted to a relief role, and he couldn’t consistently throw his curveball for a strike. Batters could bide their time, waiting for him to heave his fastball, especially if Hand fell behind in the count.

Hand thought he might be able to command a slider that didn’t plunge as drastically as his curveball. Jeff Mathis, the Marlins’ catcher and Hand’s close friend, knew of his slider experiment. And during a game against the Padres on July 24, 2015, Mathis put down the sign for the new pitch. Hand was shocked. He hadn’t alerted the catcher that the pitch was game-ready.

But it worked.

“He had a true 12-to-6 curveball that was good,” Mathis said. “You knew he had the ability to spin the ball really well. Going back and forth between the bullpen, spot-starting, the long guy — he was trying to figure out who he wanted to be and how he wanted to pitch. He started turning that curveball into that slider and using that ability to spin the ball and obviously it was something that really clicked for him.

“It was just something that I thought he could rip and grip and throw. He had a really good feel for it.”

The Marlins designated Hand for assignment at the end of spring training the following year, a time when every team trims its roster.

“I didn’t know where my career was headed,” Hand said.

The Padres — the first team to see his slider up close — scooped him up and stuck him in the bullpen. Hand made a league-high 82 appearances in 2016, and he posted a 2.92 ERA, with 111 strikeouts in 89 1/3 innings.

He still relied heavily on his curveball that year, but in 2017, he flipped the script. His slider became his primary out pitch, and it worked wonders.

2017: 45.1% of pitches were sliders
Opponent batting average against the slider: .104
Opponent slugging percentage against the slider: .187

2018: 54.3% of pitches were sliders
Opponent batting average against the slider: .158
Opponent slugging percentage against the slider: .278

2019: 54.6% of pitches have been sliders
Opponent batting average against the slider: .141
Opponent slugging percentage against the slider: .244

Hand made his first All-Star Game in 2017, and the festivities just so happened to take place in Miami.

“That was cool, just to be able to go back there as an All-Star,” he said. “It was pretty awesome. I never would have thought that I would have even made one. It was pretty special for me.”

Well, he has made three in a row, as he’s now firmly established as one of the sport’s premier relievers.

And he racks up strikeouts and saves sans stress. His teammates constantly razz him about his demeanor on the mound. He looks the same as he’s standing in line at the DMV as he does when he’s attempting to squirm out of a bases-loaded jam in the bottom of the ninth.

“His heartbeat never speeds up,” Terry Francona said. “It’s just the same.”

Earlier this season, Dan Otero joked that Hand’s resting heart rate sits at 50 beats per minute, and when hitters reach base against him, it dips to 48.

On Sunday, Hand surrendered a leadoff home run to Bubba Starling in the ninth inning. He proceeded to strike out the next three batters, including All-Star Whit Merrifield, to secure the Indians’ 5-4 victory.

“He didn’t make a very good pitch to Starling,” Francona said. “He came back and made really good pitches to the next three guys.”

Hand said he simply carries his personality — “chill, relaxed, calm,” as he described it — to the mound.

It’s much more strenuous for the hitters forced to face him.

It wasn’t always that way, of course. Sometimes, it’s a change of scenery or role that aids a pitcher in his bid to realize his potential. Sometimes, it’s the refinement of a delivery or a mechanical makeover. Sometimes, it’s the implementation of a new pitch.

For Hand, it was about landing a consistent opportunity and deploying a shiny, new slider. In the four seasons since, including his first calendar year with the Indians, he has compiled a 2.58 ERA, with 388 strikeouts in 282 innings. Even as his fastball velocity decreases as he ages, the two-pitch combination continues to produce sterling results.

And who knows? Perhaps he’ll unleash that curveball at some point. That’s just what his opponents need: another fluttering breaking ball to anticipate.

“Maybe I’ll bring it back,” Hand said. “We’ll see.”

(Photo: Patrick McDermott / Getty Images)

MLB power rankings: Indians and Giants have surged into summer
USA TODAY Sports Published 7:14 a.m. ET July 22, 2019 | Updated 7:45 a.m. ET July 22, 2019

The Cleveland Indians began the season as one of MLB's most disappointing early storylines of the year.

On June 4, they were 29-30 and 11½ games behind the Minnesota Twins in the American League Central.

Since then, they have gone 28-11 with the best winning percentage (.718) in the majors.

Look out Minnesota, the Indians are only three games back and now hold the No. 1 wild-card spot in the American League.

The San Francisco Giants also made a dramatic turn for the better over the last few weeks. A month ago, it looked like the Giants were going to sell just about everything of value on their roster.

Now? Who knows.

The surging Giants are a .500 (50-50) ballclub for the first time all season having won 15 of 18. They sit within 2½ games of a National League wild card spot.

These two teams were the biggest movers in this week's MLB power rankings.



Here's how USA TODAY Sports' eight-person panel voted this week:

RANK (movement from last week)
1. Los Angeles Dodgers (–)

Can they convince the Giants to give them WIll Smith?
2. New York Yankees (–)

Aaron Judge quietly coming on strong in July.
3. Houston Astros (–)

Yuli Gurriel's first 15 games in July: .381 average, 10 homers, 23 RBI.
4. Minnesota Twins (+1)

Don't look now, but the Indians are only a few games back.
5. Atlanta Braves (-1)

Ronald Acuña Jr. eyeing 30 (homer)-30 (stolen base) season.
6. Tampa Bay Rays (–)

Tyler Glasnow may be done for the season, which is a major blow.
7. Cleveland Indians (+6)

Now holding a wild-card spot, hard to imagine them trading Trevor Bauer.
8. Chicago Cubs (–)

Craig Kimbrel settling in with six consecutive scoreless outings.
9. Oakland Athletics (+1)

Next seven games vs. division rivals: Astros and Rangers.
10. Washington Nationals (-3)

Must be doing everything in their power to add a reliever or two.
11. Boston Red Sox (-2)

Crucial stretch: next 14 games are against the Rays and Yankees.
12. Milwaukee Brewers (–)

Keston Hiura's first 19 games after promotion: .370/.432/.658.
13. St. Louis Cardinals (+2)

Considering he's extended through 2024, they should be worried about Paul Goldschmidt.
14. Philadelphia Phillies (–)

Aaron Nola has a 1.55 ERA in his last six starts.
15. Arizona Diamondbacks (+1)

In the wild-card race but Zack Greinke's value will never be higher ...
16. Texas Rangers (-5)

Rough stretch out of the All-Star break may persuade them to sell.
17. Los Angeles Angels (–)

Mike Trout cruising towards career-highs in homers and RBI

Wild Things: Thirty years later, the Indians resemble their Major League counterparts
By Jason Lloyd 19m ago 1
TORONTO – Mike Clevinger has seen it. So has Jason Kipnis and just about every other player in the Indians’ clubhouse. By this point, “Major League” is a cult classic among both casual fans and current players alike.

But as the movie turns 30 years old this summer, what if this Indians team is the incarnate of the script? It isn’t a perfect comparison, of course. The Indians have a superstar in Francisco Lindor, a former MVP finalist in Jose Ramirez and they’ve already made the playoffs each of the past three years. They came within one win of a World Series championship not long ago and they were picked by plenty to win the division yet again this season despite more roster uncertainty than usual.

But the parallels are evident enough that a number of players on this team agreed they recognize it, too.

“They’d probably say I was fuckin’ Jake Taylor,” Kipnis laughed. “I’m the old guy with all the ice packs on his knees.”

Kipnis is certainly the veteran nearing the end, but his outstretched grab to finish off Monday’s win against the Blue Jays proved he isn’t ready for the Mexican League just yet. And while no one quite fits the role of Ricky Vaughn or his California Penal League haircut, Oliver Perez can pass for snotballer Eddie Harris and Bobby Bradley has so much Pedro Cerrano in him that it got him shipped back to the minors.

Bats, they are sick. I cannot hit curveball. Straightball I hit it very much. Curveball, bats are afraid.

The Indians have pulled together this season to play for each other and do it for themselves perhaps more than any other year, certainly since the core of this team was assembled.

Ownership cut their payroll. The front office is flirting with the idea of trading their best pitchers. No one shows up to their games.

There’s only one thing left to do. Win the whole fucking thing.

They haven’t put up a poster yet, but that could be next. In 2016, the team hung a poster of a bodybuilder with Terry Francona’s face on it. Every time they won a playoff game, they peeled off another piece – just like in the movie. It stands to reason that poster or one similar could return this fall if this team successfully runs down Minnesota.

The Twins have been a constant topic of conversation within the team’s ongoing group chat. No one can remember how or why exactly it started, but this is the first year the Indians have engaged in an ongoing group text with the entire roster throughout the season.

“Eighty percent of it is roasting each other,” Clevinger said. “Twenty percent is about baseball.”

That 20 percent includes plenty of talk about the Twins. Minnesota’s game is sometimes playing in the clubhouse now either before or after Indians games, depending on start times. No one panicked when the deficit swelled to double figures and no one is beating his chest now that it’s down to three games.

When guys aren’t talking about the Twins, they’re challenging each other with side bets. Trevor Bauer and Clevinger have often wagered over their velocity. Other veterans have joined in, challenging Bauer by offering $500 for a complete game. A home run on a certain night might be worth $200 to a hitter.

Before the final out of Sunday’s victory against the Royals, after Brad Hand already recorded the first two outs on strikeouts, Kipnis crept onto the infield grass and hollered loud enough to get Hand’s attention.

“A strikeout is worth $100,” Kipnis said, bribing his closer into striking out the side. Hand nodded, then struck out Whit Merrifield to end the game. Kipnis paid up in the clubhouse.
Francisco Lindor and Jason Kipnis have helped guide the Indians back into the pennant race this summer. (John E. Sokolowski / USA Today)
The veterans at the top of the payroll are responsible for the bulk of the wagers and a handful of players who were willing to discuss it all agreed Bauer has probably paid out more in side bets than anyone else this year. That’s no surprise given how much Bauer, who is earning $13 million this season, gives away to charity every season. The others use Carlos Santana as a meat shield – Santana is the highest-paid player at $18.3 million so they expect him to make a lot of the wagers. Kipnis is next ($14.7 million) and then Bauer.

The largest pot anyone can recall occurred during Zach Plesac’s outing last weekend against the Royals. In his previous start at Kansas City on July 4, Plesac stopped the game to have a trainer bring out a towel so he could wipe down his arms and hands while on the mound.

Plesac wasn’t wearing an undershirt and he had shaved his arms just a couple of days before the start, so there was nothing to stop the sweat from pouring down his arms and onto the ball in the Midwest humidity. It was to the point that he had trouble with his grip, so he had to stop the game and ask for the towel. Those in the Indians dugout feared he was hurt before they figured out what was going on.

“Dirt wasn’t working and the rosin was just getting chalky,” Plesac said. “I didn’t know what else to do. I couldn’t wipe my hands on any of my clothes, they were soaking wet. So I asked for a towel. It was a big situation, guys in scoring position and I had to execute a pitch. I’d rather look like an idiot and be able to grip the ball.”

Veterans started howling from the dugout immediately. No one, including Francona, had ever seen anything like it. Royals manager Ned Yost began barking about whether it was even legal, which the umpires couldn’t really address because no one had ever seen it happen before.

His teammates have worn out Plesac for weeks on the group text for the towel incident, and enough guys threw money into the pot that the rookie earning the league minimum could’ve won around $5,000 if he stopped the game over the weekend against the Royals and asked for a towel again. He declined.

“I almost did it,” he said. “They would’ve loved to have seen it.”

For all the roasts and laughter, some of this is born out of genuine frustration. The payroll cuts last winter stung a number of the veterans, as does the idea of trading Bauer or Hand. Part of that is what prompted the “play for each other” mentality that seems to have encompassed the clubhouse.

And while no one has used a boat engine in the tub yet or needed duct tape for the plane’s propeller, at least one player boarding the charter flight for this trip to Toronto noticed a large section of the plane had paint missing above the door. The paint had peeled away and the steel gray exterior of the plane was exposed.

That definitely made the group chat.

They were left for dead when they ended May with a losing record and were closer to last place than they were first. And they know they will soon be dismissed again in town when the Browns open training camp in a couple of days. But they play on and fight for each other.

This band of no-names and misfits, anonymous relievers and unheralded rookies. They text and they wager and they laugh and they play and they win and then they get up the next day and do it all over again.

And they wait for Jobu to come. He will come.

(Top photo of Tom Berenger and Charlie Sheen: Janet Macoska / Getty Images)

What did you think of this story?

Duquette: Six players I’d hold off on trading … for now


By Jim Duquette Jul 23, 2019 65
With the July 31 trade deadline just around the corner, the phone calls and dialogue continue between front offices, without much to show for their efforts so far. Andrew Cashner, Martín Maldanado and Homer Bailey are among the few players who have been traded this month, and with the standings changing on an almost nightly basis, the lines are still a little blurry on who will actually be available. Below are six players who have been a consistent part of the trade rumors but who I feel should not be traded, at least yet. It does not mean that in some cases they will not or should not be dealt eventually, just that I think now is not the right time to do it.

All stats are through July 22.

1. Madison Bumgarner, LHP, San Francisco Giants
No team has changed their fate more in the last three weeks than the Giants, who have gone from clear seller to wild-card contender in Bruce Bochy’s final season, winning 15 of their past 18 games. First-year general manager Farhan Zaidi has been clear about their stated goal of rebuilding for the future but also playing meaningful games in 2019. With the Rockies and Padres struggling within the division, and uncertainty in Arizona over whether they will buy or sell, San Francisco has a real opportunity to build on their recent momentum.

Trading Bumgarner — the face of the franchise for the past five years — is no easy task. I believe they should hold onto Bumgarner and present him with a qualifying offer at the end of the season, or even try and re-sign him for the next four seasons. The Giants could still trade a few bullpen pieces like Will Smith or Sam Dyson and use internal replacements without materially impacting the team’s chances in a one-game play-in. MadBum’s last five starts have been exceptional; he has a 1.55 ERA and .219 BAA ever since he figured out he was pitching to one side of the plate against the Dodgers on June 20. At this point, San Francisco should ride the team’s momentum. We’ve certainly seen the Giants be successful as a wild card team, and it would be a mistake to count them out in October if they found themselves in the playoffs.

2. Trevor Bauer, RHP, Cleveland Indians
Bauer is still one of the most dominant pitchers in the American League, despite a subpar stretch of eight starts from April 30 to June 6 where his four-seamer and change-up command eluded him. Bauer allowed 15 extra-base hits (including six homers) in that period, pitching to a 5.47 ERA. His name has been included in trade rumors since this winter, when Cleveland was trying to shed payroll and acquire young, controllable talent. The team was fortunate to accomplish that goal without giving up Bauer or the rest of their core rotation. Fast-forward to this summer, however, and those rumors have not gone away. In fact, three different front-office executives told me that they believe Bauer will be traded at the deadline because of the Indians’ pitching depth.

But do they really have enough depth to stay within reach of the Twins if they trade Bauer? There are serious questions about Corey Kluber’s effectiveness once he returns, and there is no timetable for Carlos Carrasco’s return. Lastly, Minnesota has slid back in the standings while Cleveland has played their best baseball of the season over this stretch. It would be a mistake if the Indians traded Bauer at this point, with the Twins squarely in their sights. A better time to move Bauer would be this winter; they might not get as much in return then, but on the other hand, they would have more teams to negotiate with. Just about any team that doesn’t want to overpay in free agency would be players for Bauer.

3. Zack Wheeler, RHP, New York Mets
Wheeler’s recent stint on the injured list with shoulder fatigue crushed any hopes for the Mets to acquire a haul of controllable pieces for him. Even his pending start this week and possible second start prior to July 31 could not rebound Wheeler’s value enough for it to make sense to trade him now. The Mets’ focus for a Wheeler trade should shift to this fall, when New York should offer him a qualifying offer (assuming the righty finishes the season healthy and pitches at his expected No. 3 starter rate).

Prior to his injury, Wheeler had appeared to be headed toward being one of the most coveted pitchers on the market, and if he finishes the season strong, that could still be the case. If the team were to offer the qualifying offer and Wheeler accepted, the Mets would control him for another year. Another healthy season of Wheeler would help the team remain competitive and buy them more time to develop young starter Anthony Kay, who is likely to assume the rotation spot sometime in the summer of 2020. If Wheeler chose free agency, the money would be available to spend elsewhere and the Mets could use the draft pool money, likely pick No. 35 next year, to draft aggressively — like they did this summer when they selected and signed Matt Allan, their 89th overall pick, for a well-above-slot $2.5 million. Most evaluators think Allan will develop into a high-end starter in the near future.

4. Noah Syndergaard, RHP, New York Mets
This is not the ideal time to trade Syndergaard, considering his combined career ERA coming into 2019 was 2.93 over 86 starts, with a 132 ERA+; he currently has an ERA of 4.36 and an ERA+ of 94. He got off to a turbulent start this season, having trouble with the grip of his slider. Hitters have averaged a gaudy .581 SLG versus that pitch through July 1. Once July started, however, Syndergaard found a new grip, and the slider has recovered its shape and depth (.077 BAA). Additionally, his two-seam fastball — the fastball he should use moving forward — has been much more effective, as he has not allowed a home run off of that pitch.

If you were an opposing team, when exactly you saw Syndergaard would likely determine your level of interest; regardless, it’s not as high as it will be at the end of this season if Syndergaard returns to his full, dominant starter self. There will always be time to trade Syndergaard this winter if the Mets desire. The team will face an interesting decision if he finishes the season on a roll — will they trade him, thinking he is at peak value, or hold him in the hope that he returns to his dominant No. 2 status behind ace Jacob deGrom? If the Mets want to compete in the division over the next year or two, it’s likely they’ll need Syndergaard, and would be better off keeping him rather than jettisoning him for younger talent.

5. David Peralta, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks
Peralta has been on the injured list with a shoulder injury for the past few weeks, but luckily for Arizona, he is due back in the next week or so. When he’s been healthy, Peralta, along with Ketel Marte, has been one of the Diamondbacks’ most consistent offensive players. While his wRC+ of 112 is down from last year’s career-high of 130, Peralta still puts together a quality at-bat each night. With the level of interest surrounding him down due to the injury — and overall interest in acquiring offensive pieces not as high over the past few deadlines — it would be more beneficial to Arizona to hold Peralta. Before he becomes a free agent at the age of 33 in 2020, the Diamondbacks should try and extend him for a few more years.

6. Clint Frazier, OF, New York Yankees
There is zero doubt that Frazier needs a change of scenery after the way he handled himself on June 2 versus the Red Sox, when his multiple misplays in the outfield cost the Yankees the game. He compounded the issue further by leaving after the game without addressing the media. The organization sending him to the minors was a wake-up call, meant to place more of an emphasis on that part of his game. While it may never be a strong suit of his, Frazier’s defense has adversely affected his overall value in the short term. However, his .788 OPS and 11 homers over 209 plate appearances has elevated his status on offense. Unless the Yankees can use him as the main piece of any trade this month, Frazier should not be traded until such a suitor steps up, likely this winter. Frazier is too good of an athlete to not improve his defense and should eventually make some AL team happy they acquired him.

They have Brad Miller; he'd probably like to come back to Cleveland.
Bryce Harper is a pretty good RF and still young, but his salary may be too much for the Tribe to take on.

Short take on their farm system is:

At the top of their system, the Phillies are anchored by two Top 100 prospects in third baseman Alec Bohm, who earned a berth in the Futures Game in his first full season as a pro, and righthander Spencer Howard, who has shown elite stuff over the past two seasons.

Beyond that, there is a lot of uncertainty. Risers like lefty Damon Jones and catcher Rafael Marchan give the system hope at both the upper and lower levels, but high-value prospects like shortstop Luis Garcia and Mickey Moniak have failed to impress scouts.

Yes, their system is not known for their productivity.

They can feel free to send us Rhys Hoskins, but no way in hell they do that. And other than him there's no young controllable talent unless you include Realmuto, and they couldn't do that either.

Those guys are huge parts of their team they have no replacements for.

I quickly looked over the top Phillies prospects, although it’s hard, I’m on my phone and my eyes aren’t what they used to be. And my wife’s driving is worse than my eyes.

But I came up with the same two names as Civ, before reading your posts.

Brohm hits for average, gets on base, and doesn’t strike out a lot. Love that. Has pop, looks to already be about a 20 HR type guy and that should only improve.

Howard has allowed way less hits and struck out way more batters than innings. And sports a 1.79 ERA.

Those two, and toss in a relief pitcher prospect like Dohy, a lefty reliever who has struck out 80 batters in 48 innings in AAA this year at the age of 22, and I’d be on board.

The case for going for it.

This post is not for the Yankees and Astros and Dodgers of the world. They’re going for it, and they should, obviously. They’ll make trades with an eye on winning it all at the end of the season.

This post is not for the Orioles and Marlins and Tigers of the world. They’re rebuilding, and they should, obviously. They’ll make trades with an eye toward building a good team in the future.

This post is for the D-Backs and Giants and Indians of the world, though. They’re not presently title contenders, and they’re not bottom-feeders, and yet the conversation seems to be about what these teams can sell and how they can turn current value into (possible) future value … at a time when they are actually in the conversation for this year’s postseason.

Why sell? Why see the world the way D-Backs general manager Mike Hazen does, apparently?

Let’s make the case for some of the borderline teams to keep the gang together, if not necessarily to buy additional reinforcements.

1. You’re winning, duh

I mean, that’s the point, right? That’s why we play the games? That’s why people show up to watch? Just winning in itself is a valuable goal — if championships are the only metric for success, then 29 teams are losers every year. Our own Grant Brisbee said it well:

This Giants team is fun now. Right now. Here, in the present, they’re giving fans a reason to watch. The Giants are doing positive baseball things, and you want to watch. You clear time to watch. When you can’t watch, you pull out the phone six times every half-hour to check on them.

When I was younger, I thought the point of baseball was to follow a team that won a championship. That was it, a binary record of one success and 29 failures every year. Except that was a dumb, constricted and painful hobby that I fashioned for myself. Now I’m pretty sure the point of baseball is to follow a team that makes you care, that makes you pull that phone out six times every half-hour. And there’s no shame in preferring the season in the hand instead of the decade in the bush.

Or maybe you prefer Herm Edwards’ “You. Play. To. Win. The. Game.” All this talk about sustained winning sometimes seems to miss the point about winning right here and now.

And even if we’re talking economics or front-office speak or whatever, winning games without winning it all has a
point:

2. Nothing is correlated with attendance like winning baseball games

Big-ticket free agents don’t drive attendance. Big-prospect callups probably don’t drive attendance. (Though maybe they do in the minor leagues.) Bobbleheads can lead to a one-game increase in attendance, but we’re talking about a long-term increase.

“Winning has a substantial and long-lasting effect on attendance,” wrote Michael C. Davis, an economics professor at the University of Missouri-Rolla, in his study on the relationship between on-field performance and attendance.

Maybe, in the context of larger and larger league and local television deals, attendance has become a secondary source of income. For example, the Reds have put together a better season so far than they’ve had in a while. Their attendance is up, year over year, more than two thousand people per game. Only one team has seen its home attendance improve more than the Reds.

Take those extra 2,813 home attendees and multiply it by 81 home games and the $64 Forbes estimated the Reds can make per average fan, and you get an extra $14.5 million for the Reds this year. They spent an extra $25 million this year to get there, and even that $14.5 million is half of the guaranteed $30 million a year the Reds currently get from television rights.

But that same study said winning has a four-year lag time, so it’s not just this year’s extra money, it’s the next four years that could benefit from more wins. There also have to be cascading effects — if hard to separate out and analyze — in terms of the willingness of free agents to sign in the city, the value of the next negotiated television contract and the potential prices for tickets per game and per season.

Winning is worth it, and selling a player when your team is winning more than it has in the past projects the wrong message to your fan base.

3. That team projection that says you won’t keep winning? It could be really wrong.

It’s easy enough to flip over to Baseball Prospectus or FanGraphs and say the Giants are projected to go 28-32 the rest of the way and end up below .500 (and out of the postseason). That sort of thing is based on the best science we’ve got when it comes to player projections, aggregated, with some strength of schedule thrown in to boot. And there are plenty of general managers — such as Hazen — who are looking at similar projections and considering selling.

Those team projections have large error bars. From research we did early last year, it’s clear that, in any given season, two-thirds of teams will likely:

Exceed or fall short of their projected win total by ~9 wins
Exceed or fall short of their projected runs scored by ~63 runs
Exceed or fall short of their projected runs allowed by ~73 runs
While it’s possible that some of the noise in preseason team projections comes from roster changes in-season — roster changes that come at the trade deadline, for example — there’s such a large spread in the projections that it’s probably false precision to say that the Giants are for sure a sub-.500 team going forward, or that the Phillies should fall back, or that the Red Sox (yes, really, the Red Sox) should sell Mookie Betts (yes, really, Mookie Betts) because projections say one thing or another.

“There are wins out there at the deadline when other teams sell and talent consolidates,” Billy Beane said at one Winter Meetings. The bad teams are about to get worse, and standing pat at the deadline could easily change a team’s rest-of-season strength of schedule and change its projected win totals … without a single roster change by the team itself.

5. ‘Sort of’ selling doesn’t return much these days

Say you’re a team that’s playing well and trying to build toward the future. Say you’re interested in selling your free-agents-to-be and keeping the core intact. Say you’ve got a free-agent-to-be such as Yasiel Puig and you’re hoping you can add a top prospect and maybe even get back into the free-agent bidding for Puig in the offseason. Sounds great! Cake/eat it too, etc.

J.D. Martinez was perhaps the best free-agent-to-be hitter shopped in the 2017 season. When the Tigers traded him to the D-Backs, they received Dawel Lugo, Sergio Alcántara and Jose King for their rental stud. Not one of them was a top-100 prospect. Not one of them currently projects to be above replacement.

Maybe that’s just one example, since the Orioles did get an interesting (borderline top-100) prospect in Yusniel Díaz for their rental Manny Machado last year, but there’s also a difference between Machado and Puig, who isn’t likely to get a $300 million deal next offseason for a variety of reasons, including defensive versatility and contact rate. Rentals aren’t bringing back what they used to in trades.

The market values years of control. If you’re selling free-agents-to-be, you’re not going to be shopping in the top-100 prospects bin. Once you leave the top 100, the likelihood you’ll get even a useful bench part drops below 25 percent. Line up that sort of risk against the above items and are you as sure selling — while winning — is the way to go?

There are no absolutes, and for every team, there are only shades of gray. The 2017 Royals and 2018 Pirates might have thought they were either currently good or close to being good and that buying longer-term assets would help them in the present and again for their next team, and their activities at those deadlines might have hurt their teams in the long run.

So it might be folly for the Giants or D-Backs or Reds or Padres to buy. They’re still sorting through their rosters, trying to figure out where they are and how long it’ll be before they’re in the middle of their peak winning cycle. If a team such as the Padres could sell Kirby Yates, replace the reliever from within and also shed an onerous contract, it might actually improve its 2019 squad. There could be some creative trades coming that walk the line between winning this year and improving for next year.

But sell, particularly someone such as Trevor Bauer or Robbie Ray, a player who will be on the roster next year, and for prospects? Now? Really?

Cleveland Indians: A little trade deadline deal that turned out to be very big -- Terry Pluto


Updated Jul 27, 9:42 AM; Posted Jul 27, 6:00 AM

By Terry Pluto, The Plain Dealer

DEADLINE DEALS

A year ago, the Indians made two deals right at the July 31 deadline.

The first appeared to be an important one. They sent prospect Willi Castro to Detroit for Leonys Martin. They were desperate for someone to play center field, and the veteran Martin appeared to be a short-term fix. Ten days later, Martin went on the disabled list with a life-threatening bacterial blood infection. He played only six games for the Tribe in 2018.


Martin opened the 2019 season as the Tribe’s center fielder. He batted .199 with 9 HR in 65 games. He was placed on waivers and is now playing in Japan.

Castro is a 22-year-old shortstop batting .290 (.798) with 5 HR and 44 RBI for Class AAA Toledo. He has had some defensive issues (16 errors). But at the very least, Castro could be in Detroit next year as an utility infielder.

Turns out the trade did little for the Tribe, but it could help Detroit at some point.

LITTLE BECOMES BIG

The other trade seemed like a yawner. The Indians sent two low-level minor leaguers (Conner Capel and Jhon Torres) to St. Louis for Oscar Mercado. This was announced about an hour before the deadline.

Mercado was the Cardinals’ second-round pick in the 2013 draft out of Tampa Gaither High School. He was a shortstop, and played that position in the minors from 2013-16. He averaged 31 errors a season. He also never hit higher than .254 (.638 OPS).


Mercado looked like a draft mistake.

In 2017, the Cardinals converted him to the outfield. The 6-foot-2, 200-pound Mercado is a fluid athlete and the switch helped. He was no longer a defensive disaster. He began to hit, and caught the attention of the Indians.

President Chris Antonetti said the Tribe was searching for young outfielders, especially those at the higher levels of the minors. Mercado was one of several names on their list. Another was Jordan Luplow, who kept bouncing between Class AAA and Pittsburgh in 2018.

The Cardinals had several promising outfielders in the upper levels of their minor league system, including Harrison Bader, Tyler O’Neill, Yairo Munoz and Adolis Garcia.

The Indians were desperate to add more athleticism and speed. They didn’t know when Mercado would be big-league ready. He was hitting .285 (.759 OPS) with 8 HR, 42 RBI and 31 stolen bases. But the Tribe knew he was better prospect than what they had at the upper minor league levels. Mercado was only 23 at the time of the deal.

Mercado had a strong spring training in 2019. He was sent to Class AAA Columbus, but there was a sense he’d come to Cleveland soon. He was promoted on May 14 when the Indians were 21-19.



Since then, they are 40-23 with Mercado playing nearly every day. The right-handed hitter entered the weekend batting .286 (.803 OPS) with 8 HR, 29 RBI and 9-of-11 in stolen bases. He has taken over center field.

PROSPECTS, PROSPECTS!

Lots of names of low-level minor leaguers were exchanged. Capel, who was in Class A at the time of the trade, is now batting .254 (.746 OPS) with 10 HR and 40 RBI splitting 2019 between Class AA and AAA. He’s 22. Torres, 19, is batting .219 (.690 OPS) with 4 HR and 19 RBI in Class A.

It’s hard to know when (or if) prospects will mature into big leaguers. The Indians sent four young players to the Yankees at the 2016 July 31 deadline for Andrew Miller. They were sure Clint Frazier and Justus Sheffield (the top two prospects) would be in the majors by now.

Frazier would be a big leaguer with most teams, but the Yankees are loaded in the outfield. Frazier batted .283 (.843 OPS) with 11 HR and 34 RBI in 191 at bats for New York earlier in the season. He in Class AAA now. The Yankees traded Sheffield to Seattle. He has pitched only 5 2/3 big league innings. He now in Class AA.


The Indians gave up on Jesus Aguilar too soon, and he went on to make the 2018 NL All-Star team with Milwaukee in 2018. This season, he’s struggled (.228, .707 OPS, 8 HR, 34 RBI).

San Diego gave up on a Class AA pitcher named Corey Kluber, who has won two Cy Young awards with the Tribe.

DEADLINE LOOMS

I’m in the minority of media people who expect Trevor Bauer to be traded, despite the Indians’ rise in the standings. I sense the front office has a certain type deal in mind: Players who can help now, and later.

There are teams such as Houston and the Yankees desperate for starting pitchers and loaded with prospects who can help the Indians.

The front office is not afraid to make deals knowing fans will be unhappy, as probably will be the case if Bauer is traded by July 31.

DEALS NOT MADE

On the same July 31, 2016 trade deadline day when the Tribe acquired Andrew Miller, they also thought they had a deal for catcher Jonathan Lucroy. But he exercised his right to veto the deal.

Who was in that transaction?

1. Francisco Mejia: He was later used in a 2018 trade to bring All-Star closer Brad Hand and solid reliever Adam Cimber to the Tribe. Mejia has batted .221 (.666 OPS) in 64 big league games. He’s hitting .275 for the Padres since being recalled on June 17 from Class AAA, where he hit .365.


2. Greg Allen: After a slow start (4-for-38) and a return to the minors this season, Allen is back in Cleveland and batting .333 (20-for-60) over a 10-game stretch.

3. Yu Chang: He opened the Class AAA season playing with a bad finger and was 8-for-53 in April. Chang spent some time on the disabled list. Since he returned, he’s batting .314 (33-for-105) for the Clippers. He could be the Tribe’s second or third baseman next season.

4. Shawn Armstrong: He’s a marginal major league reliever who has a 4.70 ERA for Baltimore this season at age 28.

5. Since turning down the trade to Cleveland, Lucroy has played for Texas, Colorado, Oakland and the Angels. That’s four teams in three years.

6. Yep, sometimes some of the best deals are the ones that don’t happen.

Tribe has always been better at judging other teams' talent than drafting their own.

"always" is of course not always correct. Lindor turned out OK for a No. 1 pick. Bieber, Plesac Plutko are not bad either. Cody Allen was a great late pick.
But your general point is certainly correct; we are great at developing prospects we pick up at about the AA level and making them stars