Meisel’s Musings: The Indians’ scoreboard watching, a Yandy Díaz Q&A and helping the hitting coach


By Zack Meisel May 24, 2019 24
CLEVELAND — It was like a Warhol painting, one outfielder lying in the grass, facing right field, and another outfielder lying in the grass, facing the daunting left-field wall. Viewers could sense the agony as if they, too, were writhing around in the sea of green.

Oscar Mercado and Leonys Martín clutched various aching body parts as the Rays raced around the bases. (Martín’s knee is fine, and though Mercado exited the game after an at-bat, his hip injury doesn’t appear to be too serious.)

No series of events better symbolizes the Indians’ past few weeks. Their bats haven’t emerged from hibernation. Meanwhile, the Twins can’t stop hitting home runs and notching victory after victory. Their pace will eventually slow, one would think, but while everyone twiddles their thumbs and waits for that day to arrive, Minnesota continues to create more and more separation in the American League Central.

The Twins will carry an eight-game advantage into the weekend. And the Indians aren’t exactly stuck in the dark.

Between innings, Terry Francona often glances at the scoreboard built into the left-field wall at Progressive Field to monitor what’s happening around the league. He reads box scores in USA Today each morning, so long as the clubhouse attendant saddled with the task can find enough copies at a convenience store on his way to the ballpark.

Jason Kipnis checks the standings on a regular basis, too. He always has. Minnesota’s scorching start to the season hasn’t changed that practice.

“Pretty much, just to keep an eye on where everyone is, just to have my finger on the pulse of what the division is doing,” Kipnis said. “But it doesn’t make me any less worried or more worried about what’s going on. We still have a job to do and if we do our job, I think we’ll be where we want to be at the end.

“I’m not as worried as most people are. If you want to jump off now, go for it. It’s May. We have some light at the end of the tunnel. We have (Corey) Kluber and (Mike) Clevinger rejoining eventually, Clev coming first. Obviously, the law of averages, our numbers should uptick and Minnesota’s should down(tick). It’s a long season. We go through this almost every year, with fans, with other people, trying to make people realize — how many games do we have left versus Minnesota? Sixteen. So much can happen. The first couple years (of my tenure in Cleveland), we were in Detroit and we used to be, like, ‘Oh, this is a big series. Four games versus them.’ We’ve played Minnesota once so far. I think people need to realize that. Are we not looking great right now? Sure. But that doesn’t mean all hope is lost.”

The Indians were welcoming of more competition in the division, of another team actually pushing them during the regular season. They breezed to a third consecutive AL Central crown last year and never found the off button for the cruise control setting in time to put forth a valiant effort in the playoffs.

Of course, no one in the Indians’ clubhouse was begging for an eight-game deficit on Memorial Day weekend. The upcoming stretch — three more against the Rays, then series against the Red Sox, White Sox, Yankees and Twins — should determine quite a bit.
The Yandy Man
Somehow, Yandy Díaz’s biceps look even larger than they did in the past. His hand is bruised, though, which will keep him sidelined this weekend. He’ll have to wait until late August to wreak havoc upon his former team. The Rays placed Díaz on the injured list Thursday afternoon, which Díaz described as “bad timing.”

Díaz boasts a .256/.339/.500 slash line this season, plus nine of his 10 career home runs. He has started 24 games at third base, nine at first and eight at designated hitter.

Francona said he isn’t surprised by the production at the plate.

“I think we always felt that Yandy was a tremendous hitter,” Francona said, “that he needed some time for the field to come around. It seems to have hastened. Whether (hitting coach Chad Mottola) is working with him, whatever. But we knew he was a good hitter.

Here’s the meat of Díaz’s question-and-answer session with a handful of reporters from Thursday:

What sticks out about your time in Cleveland?

It was a good experience. I had a lot of good teammates when I was here.

What has led to you hitting more home runs this season?

It’s definitely the opportunity to play every day and having that mentality of knowing that I’m going to be playing every day and having that chance to know that I’m not going to be playing every three, four, five days, but to be in the lineup every day.

Were you surprised by the trade?

Yeah, of course, I was surprised, but it was a good opportunity that the Rays have given me so far.

Do you think the Indians gave you a fair opportunity?

(Pause.) Probably not as much as the Rays, but with the opportunities that I did have, I tried to take advantage as much as I could.

Has it helped to hit the ball out front more?

Yeah, I think so. Usually, if I let the ball get back a little bit more, it loses power, whereas if I can get a little more out in front, I can elevate the ball a little more.

Are you pulling the ball more, too? It seemed like you had a tendency to go to right field when with the Indians.

I think (it’s) the approach, the approach that I’ve had. I’ve had a lot more pitches inside this year and I think I’m just taking advantage of that.

Awry, Van Burkleo
Ty Van Burkleo has served on Francona’s staff since the manager joined the Indians before the 2013 season. The Indians’ lineup has endured power outages in the past, but this time, the team seems to lack the necessary candles and flashlights to survive.

When The Athletic asked Van Burkleo last week how he was coping with the offensive struggles and whether he had wondered whether he was missing anything, he sternly said he wasn’t second-guessing himself or his approach as hitting coach.

Van Burkleo has spoken in the past about losing sleep when even one hitter is struggling. So, how has he appeared to Francona during this stretch?

“I think we all wear it to some extent,” Francona said. “We all have a responsibility. The coaches have a responsibility for their area. I have a responsibility for the coaches and then the players. There’s always something to be concerned about. As a hitting instructor, it’s an endless job because you’re never gonna have 12 or 13 guys hot. It’s an ongoing — the one minute you think you’ve figured it out, you’d better start all over again. It can be almost thankless at times. But I’ve not seen his demeanor change at all. And I try, when we really hit the ball to make sure I give him an extra — because I know that they’re putting the same amount of time in, whether we get two hits or 12. And their effort’s the same.

“The best thing I can do is let him do his job. I would never go to a hitter. I think that’s dangerous. I think one — or in our case, two voices, because Victor’s back there, too — it’s important to have a consistent voice. As coaches, we talk about the game nonstop because that’s all we do all year. We’re in the car on the way to the ballpark, we talk about the game. On the way home, you talk about the game. There’s a lot of conversation. But I know what he’s doing. I see him coming out of the cage sweating. I see him on the plane digging through video. His preparation is the same. It’s consistent.”
Quotes to note
“I don’t even know, but it smelled interesting. There were a lot of different ingredients in it. It was the best worst time of my life, for sure.” — Shane Bieber, on what his teammates dumped on him to celebrate his 15-strikeout shutout Sunday.

“I was commenting to a lot of the guys on how that was probably one of the more dominant, impressive performances I’ve ever seen. There are a handful of times, maybe, that I’ve seen better, but that was right up there with them. When you see something like that, you marvel at it.” — Tyler Clippard, who has pitched in the majors for nine teams over 13 years, on Bieber’s performance.

Final thoughts
1. A few times over the past year, Francona has said the Indians would consider using an opener if they had the proper personnel and it gave them a better chance to win. The Rays, of course, have made the opener strategy chic.

“I think you have to look at what team you have, where you’re situated,” Francona said. “The Rays don’t employ a 12-man pitching staff. They actually employ about a 16-man pitching staff. They pitch, they send guys down. And (Kevin Cash) said, ‘I talk to guys during spring and tell them this is how it’s going to be.’ OK, currently on our roster, we have two guys that are option-able. That’s (Adam) Cimber and (Nick) Wittgren. They’re not going anywhere. So every four to five days, we’re not going to DFA somebody. It works with an extremely young roster. The other thing it does, if you look at their roster from front to back, they have really good pitching. Believe me, they’re not going to start somebody that they think is going to give up six. And the guy that you start, you have to be able to have him in the back. I guess what I’m saying is, they’re pretty deep in pitching.”

2. Carlos Santana will earn a salary of $20.8 million next season. The following year, the Indians can exercise his $17.5 million option or pay him a $500,000 buyout. A random thought: Given his devotion to Cleveland, which he routinely refers to as his “sweet home,” and the struggles and frustrations that mounted during his lone season elsewhere, would Santana offer to remain in an Indians uniform beyond 2020 at a discounted rate? Who knows how desperate the Indians will be for a 34-year-old first baseman at that point — Bobby Bradley and Jake Bauers figure to be in the mix — but it would at least make for a compelling option should Santana prefer to occupy his Bratenahl home for the long haul.

3. Corey Kluber had his full cast removed Thursday after an X-ray. He’s healing well and participated in some running drills in the left-field grass Thursday afternoon. He’ll be re-evaluated in two weeks.

.

(Top photo: David Richard / USA Today)

What did you think of this story?

Glad Bauer figured it out. Leadoff hitter homers off him today.

Bauer is so full of crap.

Look, if it were as easy as analyzing, strategizing and that's all, there would be lots of Cy Young winners.

Lots of what athletes go through in every sport (pro or amateur) is about rhythm, feel, energy level and circumstance. Otherwise guys AND teams would keep replicating the same result over and over like robots.

Doesn't work that way obviously. Results vary no matter what you plan. That doesn't mean don't plan - it's just that ups and downs happen....period. Sometimes you just have to grind until it turns around.

The State of the Indians address

Zack Meisel 2h ago 29

BOSTON — The calendar has yet to flip to June. Three of the Indians’ five active starting pitchers have less than a year of major-league service time to their name. The lineup has featured thumpless stand-ins masquerading as cleanup hitters.

The Indians sit 10 games behind the AL Central-leading Twins. At the moment, that gap feels more like the English Channel than a conquerable creek.

How did the Indians get here?

1. This was supposed to be an Indian summer, a Cleveland showcase, the city serving as the epicenter of baseball in early July. The Indians haven’t hosted the All-Star Game in 22 years; they probably won’t do so again for another few decades.

But instead of the Midsummer Classic fueling enthusiasm at Progressive Field, it’s trending toward resembling an awkward dinner party, full of uncomfortable conversation topics. Is the ambassador for the week, Francisco Lindor, destined for the trade block? (Probably not.) What about Trevor Bauer and Brad Hand? Remember when José Ramírez seemed like a shoo-in for the Home Run Derby?

2. The Indians are paying dearly for their sins of winter. And, really, this dates to the offseason before last. It was never about swapping out Edwin Encarnacion for Carlos Santana, or selling high on Yan Gomes or shipping Yonder Alonso to Chicago. It was about a failure to recognize the hoping and praying necessary for this lineup to even emerge merely competent in support of a sound pitching staff. It didn’t require the Hubble Space Telescope to see the potential pitfalls in the lineup.

Lindor’s balky ankle and Ramírez’s faulty bat haven’t helped. But the Indians rank near the bottom of the league in a slew of offensive categories, and a quick glance at the batting order on any particular day explains those results.

3. After Roberto Pérez tapped a dribbler up the third-base line for the game-winning hit against the Rays on Friday, Jake Bauers shouted to the catcher across the clubhouse: “Sick fuckin’ hit, bro.”

“I’ll take that all day long,” Pérez replied.

“I’d take a thousand of ’em,” Bauers said.

It sure was fitting for the Indians to gut out a victory not with a majestic blast to the left-field bleachers, but with a 60-foot putt up the edge of the green.

After all, Carlos Gonzalez batted fourth for the Indians last Tuesday night. By Wednesday morning, he was unemployed. Bauers and Jason Kipnis have since filled in behind Carlos Santana in Terry Francona’s lineup, but the results have left much to be desired. This brand of baseball has been difficult for fans, reporters and even midges to stomach. There are 109 games remaining.

4. When ownership demanded a slimmer budget, the front office had to flex its creative muscles. The aim was to avoid spoiling the current product while also brightening the club’s future.

But the Corey Kluber trade rumors came and went without a final handshake. Michael Brantley departed without a qualifying offer or a suitable replacement. And the modest investments in Gonzalez and Hanley Ramírez bore as much fruit as a North Pole peach tree. The front office, while working with limited margin for error, has committed some painful misfires. (Shoutout to Cleveland native Derek Dietrich, his .993 OPS, 14 home runs and the minor-league deal he signed with the Reds in February.)

5. You know the situation is rough when Francona opts not to schedule any pranks on his old buddy Kevin Cash. When the Rays visited Cleveland over the weekend, there were no scoreboard slights displaying Cash’s abysmal hitting statistics.

“I don’t want to poke the bear,” Francona said of Cash, who has guided the Rays to a 32-19 start.
6. Forget the record comparisons to past seasons. Sure, the Indians stood at 24-25 at one point last year. One could reasonably expect that team was bound to find its footing, especially in such a weak division.

Now, the Indians finally have a formidable foe in the AL Central, and there aren’t exactly hard-swinging saviors standing around the team bus, waiting for work. Bobby Bradley deserves a chance at some point, but would he transform the lineup? Would Ramírez’s regression to the mean fix everything? Has Bauers suggested he’s on the verge of blossoming?

The Twins have blistered the baseball at a historic rate, but even when they fall to the pack a bit, they’ve banked enough of an advantage to push the Indians to the brink of some critical decisions, ones they probably weren’t prepared to have to make so soon.

7. Assuming this season doesn’t include a miraculous reversal of fortunes — and, perhaps, even if it does — it would be wise to dangle Bauer on the trade market. Maybe Hand, too. Kluber’s broken arm has likely extended his stay in Cleveland.

The Indians will probably never publicly identify 2019 as a retooling year, but the evidence is already on the field, in the form of still-developing players such as Oscar Mercado and Jefry Rodriguez. Zach Plesac will make his big-league debut in front of a raucous Fenway crowd Tuesday night.

Francona acknowledged the team needs to evaluate its younger players and allow them to endure growing pains. On Monday, Mercado got caught in between on a single to right field, granting Mookie Betts two extra bases. Betts scored on Rodriguez’s wild pitch a few moments later.

“Part of the reason we’re calling these guys up like we’ve been,” Francona said Monday afternoon in the visitors dugout, “is to let them get some of the firsts out of the way. Sure, we want to win the games that we play, but we also are trying to develop some younger guys and give them a taste of the major leagues.”

That doesn’t sound like a World Series battle cry. It sounds like a team stuck in the middle of an unenviable — albeit self-inflicted — situation.

8. They probably won’t initiate a full-scale rebuild. A rotation anchored by Mike Clevinger, Shane Bieber and Carlos Carrasco remains a solid foundation. (Plus Kluber, provided he can correct his early-season glitches.) It can’t hurt to attempt to determine whether the rotation can survive Bauer’s potential absence, which might explain the haste to observe Plesac after just three starts at Class AAA.

9. A 26-27 start doesn’t necessarily warrant a trip to Sellersville. The issue with the Indians’ standing, though, is that one trade won’t provide a widespread remedy. The Indians would have to swing big, but doing so would likely eliminate the remaining talent in the upper levels of their farm system, and for what, a chance at a wild-card spot? That would only cause further damage to the outlook for 2020 and 2021.

10. No, the Indians didn’t anticipate losing Clevinger and Kluber to injuries and losing Ramírez to identity theft.( )

But the offseason decision-making also left the club zero margin for error, and no team dodges adversity for an entire 162-game slate.

So instead of unearthing ways to better support a roster highlighted by a loaded rotation and a top-five position player in the prime of his career — with all of that talent signed for reasonable prices — the Indians left themselves vulnerable to this sort of scenario.

More than any on-the-field accomplishment, this season seems destined to be remembered for Paul Dolan’s “Enjoy him” remark – a quote as regrettable as Jim Thome’s vow to stay in Cleveland or a fellow writer’s declaration that the club’s 2016 postseason dreams were dashed before they began.

11. If a part of the reason for reducing payroll is low attendance, how did ownership think this plan of attack would attract larger crowds and boost fan sentiment? And of all years to scale back, to refuse to budge before the one in which the city is hosting the sport’s summer spectacle is a bewildering choice.

It’s not ownership’s fault that Ramírez won’t be spraying meatballs to the right-field mezzanine as All-Star teammates capture each towering drive on their iPhones, or that Bauer’s struggles have jeopardized his chances of earning a spot on the AL roster, let alone his chances at starting the game in front of his home crowd. But this could have been a golden opportunity for a team outside of Boston, New York, Chicago and Los Angeles to hog the spotlight and earn national attention for its operation.

Instead, the Indians have reached a crossroads, with a dark cloud looming and some difficult decisions lying ahead.

even more reason to be enthustiastic

Marla Ridenour: In total organizational failure, underestimating Twins was Indians’ fatal mistake



It is easy to blame the offseason cost-cutting by owner Paul Dolan for the deplorable state of the Indians, and every nugget of criticism is deserved.

Dolan’s moves that have practically slammed shut the window of championship opportunity are mystifying, especially with the clock ticking on All-Star shortstop Francisco Lindor’s time in Cleveland.

Last season’s sweep at the hands of the Houston Astros in the American League Division Series had already dramatically lowered that window, revealing how far the Indians were from the league’s elite.

But even with Dolan’s face in the bull’s-eye on angry fans’ dartboards, where the Indians stand is a result of a total organizational failure.

They misjudged the American League Central-leading Minnesota Twins, whose 36-17 record paced the majors going into Tuesday.

They misjudged their own roster, believing that an outstanding rotation could cover the flaws of an anemic lineup.

President of baseball operations Chris Antonetti and General Manager Mike Chernoff kept some players too long (Jason Kipnis) and gave up on others too soon (Giovanny Urshela).

They lost or traded too much — Michael Brantley, Edwin Encarnacion, Yonder Alonso, Melky Cabrera, Rajai Davis, Yandy Diaz, Lonnie Chisenhall, Brandon Guyer and Yan Gomes. Admittedly, the latter three would not have moved the needle; Chisenhall is battling calf soreness with the Pittsburgh Pirates, Guyer was released by the Chicago White Sox and Gomes is hitting .239 with two homers for the Washington Nationals.

Should the Indians be buyers or sellers this season? It’s complicated.



Even the Tribe’s successful practice of bringing in veterans either injured or at the tail end of their careers failed when Hanley Ramirez and Carlos Gonzalez flopped.

The reality is harsh.

Ten games behind the Twins in the American League Central going into Tuesday’s action. A team batting average of .222 that ranked 28th out of 30 major league teams. Five regulars hitting .228 or below, including former MVP candidate Jose Ramirez, so lost at the plate that it’s now affecting his defense.

And this isn’t even rock bottom, with eight games in the next two weeks against the Boston Red Sox, Twins and New York Yankees.

The Indians need to boost attendance to increase revenue, yet continue to put an unwatchable lineup on the field. One can only cringe that not only are the Indians wasting Lindor’s final months in town, but they also are giving Terry Francona, one of the best managers in baseball, so little to work with.

With a batting order lacking consistency and too many players not ready for prime time, even trading Trevor Bauer and/or Lindor before the July 31 deadline might not bring enough help.

To the Indians’ credit, they appear to have done a good job evaluating other teams’ farm talent. Oscar Mercado, Jefry Rodriguez, Daniel Johnson and perhaps Jordan Luplow — acquired in trades from the St. Louis Cardinals, Nationals (both Rodriguez and Johnson) and Pirates, respectively — have shown promise. Outfielder Johnson was promoted to Triple-A Columbus after batting .253 with 10 home runs and 33 RBI in 39 games with the Double-A RubberDucks.


The Indians’ bullpen has been better than some expected.

But it’s hard to look at the averages of Ramirez (.197 before Tuesday), Jake Bauers (.215), Kipnis (.225), Roberto Perez (.225) and Leonys Martin (.228) and be optimistic about the remaining 109 games and what lies beyond.

It’s hard not to grate one’s teeth over the relatively modest two-year, $32 million free-agent contract Brantley signed with the Astros in December. When healthy, before Lindor and Ramirez burst onto the scene, Brantley was the dependable veteran that made the Indians’ offense go. Brantley would have filled a void, whether in leadership or in the No. 2 spot in the order, held by Mercado for the past two games.

It’s hard to watch the struggles of Bauer, Ramirez and the rest and have much faith in Francona’s coaching staff. Expected to pitch like the ace he insisted he was, Bauer is 0-3 with a 6.52 ERA since Corey Kluber went down with a broken arm. Kluber wasn’t himself before he was hurt. Ramirez has been unable to hit anything but fastballs since August.

Perhaps some of the young players the Indians’ front office put its faith in will come around, but by the time they do it might be too late. The Twins’ .273 team batting average ranked second in the majors on Tuesday morning. They will visit Progressive Field for a three-game series next week looking to put even more distance between themselves and the Indians. Even if the Twins cool off, the race may be over by the time the Indians host the All-Star Game.

Arrogance doesn’t seem like the Indians’ style, but they acted like they believed they had a cushion, confident they could capture what would be their fourth consecutive division title. Then Kluber and Mike Clevinger were lost to injuries, and the woes at the plate wore on.

So blame Dolan — and he belongs in the bull’s-eye, getting no pass here — but evaluating division opponents wasn’t his job.

Of all those I still say Brantley was the biggest mistake/loss.

And to be fair about the Twins, many saw them improved but NO ONE saw them taking off like this.

Again, Jon Heyman predicted the Twins would win the Central before the season started.

Jon Heyman Verified account @JonHeyman
Mar 28

Predictions:

Phillies
Brewers
Dodgers

wild cards: Mets, Cardinals

Red Sox
Twins
Astros

wild cards: Yankees, Indians

World Series

Dodgers over Astros, 7 games

MVPs: Juan Soto, Mike Trout

Cy Young: Jake deGrom, Justin Verlander

Rookies: Fernando Tatis Jr., Vlad Guerrero Jr.

Ridenour article is terrible. Stuck with Kipnis too long ! Geez, how dumb can you be ? Might win the Sheldon Ocker award for stupidity.

Pretty as a picture: Ranking the best pitch framers among MLB catchers


By Mark Simon 1h ago 4
Pitch framing may not be the secret skill anymore, but there’s still plenty of appreciation for the masked men who can steal strikes for their pitchers on pitches out of the strike zone and ensure that pitches in the strike zone are properly called.

At Sports Info Solutions (SIS), we track catcher effectiveness at this skill in a few ways. Our Strike Zone Runs Saved (SZRS) metric can be found at FanGraphs dating to 2010. Over a full season, 15 SZRS will likely put a catcher at the top of a leaderboard. Anything 10 or over will put a catcher near the top (10 actually led MLB in 2018). The higher the number, the better the catcher is. A catcher can rack up SZRS by playing a lot and being good at getting extra strikes or by playing part-time and being great at it.

Additionally, our stats break down how much a catcher is contributing on a per-pitch basis and can evaluate his effectiveness for any area inside or outside the strike zone.

Our catcher metrics may appear to not give the catcher a lot of credit for a called strike compared with other systems. There’s a reason for that: In our system, which is explained at this link (and in even greater depth here), the catcher, the pitcher, the umpire and the batter are treated as the primary participants. The catcher is not the sole determinant in whether a called pitch is a strike.

At the beginning of this decade, no such measurements for pitch-framing effectiveness existed publicly. When stats did become public, Jonathan Lucroy’s value was at a premium and there was a big difference in value between the best catcher and the worst catcher. Now, the gap has narrowed as catchers have devoted more time to pitch presentation, and teams are giving more playing time to those who do it well. Lucroy doesn’t even rank in the top 10 now.

Nonetheless, there are still several catchers who are very good. In the spirit of our ranking of best outfield arms from a couple of weeks ago, let’s rank the top current pitch framers in baseball:

1. Tyler Flowers, Braves
Many catchers are better defensively than Tyler Flowers. But Flowers’ pitch-framing success more than makes up for his defensive deficiencies. Over the past three seasons, Flowers leads the majors in Strike Zone Runs Saved and is far better than anyone else when that is prorated per 1,000 innings.

Most Strike Zone Runs saved per 1,000 innings (2017–2019)

Player No.
Tyler Flowers 21
Max Stassi 17
Austin Hedges 15
Austin Barnes 14

“His pitch framing is out of this world,” Braves starter Mike Foltynewicz told The Athletic’s Dave O’Brien a year ago. “When he gets behind that dish, you know he’s getting three, four, five, six, seven calls for you a game. It really just changes the game. You can be that much more confident knowing you throw this pitch and he’s either going to block it or get a nice frame for you.”

Flowers sometimes uses a stance in which he has one knee on the ground so that he can get as low as possible. That allows him to make a maneuver like this — not setting a target but catching a pitch below the knees as his glove is moving up, thus making the pitch look like it’s down the middle when it’s at the knees or just below:

2. Austin Hedges, Padres
Austin Hedges might be the best defensive catcher in baseball today. He frames and blocks pitches at a very high level. He doesn’t hurt his team with regard to stolen bases allowed. He’s saved 12 runs with his defense this season, five more than any other catcher.

Just on the basis of his pitch framing, Hedges is popular among pitchers because he brings their ERAs down. A collection of pitches thrown with Hedges catching shows his knack for catching a pitch that is just outside the strike zone with at least part of his glove in the zone.

Padres reliever Craig Stammen has thrown to 18 catchers in his 10-year career and rates Hedges as the best, ahead of Hall of Famer Ivan Rodriguez, when it comes to “stealing pitches.”

“With my pitches, he’s really good at tracking the ball that goes down,” Stammen told The Athletic’s Dennis Lin last week. “He makes it look like it’s staying level instead of the ball continuing to go down.”

Here’s what Stammen is talking about. Watch the look of dissatisfaction from the batter, Justin Turner:

3. Austin Barnes, Dodgers
Austin Barnes was the best catcher in baseball at getting more strikes than expected per 100 pitches for his pitchers last season. He ranked third in that stat in 2017. Since his debut season in 2015, Barnes’ strength is ensuring that strikes are strikes. He rates the best in the majors at getting called strikes on pitches in the zone, which he does 93 percent of the time. Barnes got the same kind of praise as Hedges from Dodgers pitching coach Rick Honeycutt, who cited Barnes’ excellence in “(holding) the glove the proper way, especially for the low pitch and being able to frame that ball and not let the speed of the pitch take the glove out of the zone.”

SIS has found that the strike probabilities for a pitch decrease the more a catcher moves his glove horizontally across the strike zone. But watch Barnes set up inside here and reach in a way that makes this Clayton Kershaw pitch look like it’s in the strike zone when it isn’t:

4. Buster Posey, Giants
Buster Posey ranked as a top pitch framer from 2012 to 2016. He was a master at widening the strike zone, which played an instrumental role in Madison Bumgarner’s success during that time. Look at this image of Posey’s catching “hot zones” generated using the TruMedia tool in 2016.


After two seasons of battling injuries, Posey has shown signs of returning to form this season, ranking at or near the top of the SZRS leaderboard early in 2019.

Highest percentage of called strikes
For pitches within approximately 2 inches of a strike zone edge

Player Pct.
Austin Hedges 23%
Buster Posey 21%
Tyler Flowers 21%
Tucker Barnhart 20%
Posey’s strengths, as noted in an article I wrote in 2016, were keeping his head still and moving the ball gently just a little bit. Here, he does that on a borderline pitch to get a called third strike:

5. Jeff Mathis, Rangers
At the season’s end, SIS presents The Fielding Bible Awards to the top defender at each position. Mathis won the award at catcher despite catching only 63 games last season. But this was not a case of giving a Gold Glove to Rafael Palmeiro for barely playing first base.

Mathis won on the merits — for being an outstanding pitch blocker and pitch framer. Regarding the latter, Mathis is elite when it comes to getting strikes on low pitches, whether they are in or out of the strike zone. He frequently beats the ball to the spot and ensures he’s catching it with momentum going toward the zone. His hands are fast. Here’s one good example:

6. Roberto Perez, Indians
Roberto Perez has been a standout pitch framer from the day he joined the Indians in 2014. His value is increased by being a base-stealing deterrent and a strong pitch blocker. He’s right there with Hedges and Mathis in all-around defensive performance, though the numbers indicate the other two are a tiny bit better in Defensive Runs Saved per 1,000 innings over the past five seasons.

Perez was great at getting the high strike for the Indians in their run to the 2016 World Series. He can still get it done in 2019:

7. Yasmani Grandal, Brewers
Critique Yasmani Grandal all you want for his 2018 postseason struggles with wild pitches and passed balls, but he was highly valuable on defense the past four seasons for the Dodgers, almost entirely because of his pitch framing. Grandal may not be the best, but the fact that he’s very good and plays as much as he does (four consecutive seasons of 100 games caught) make his position on the list justified.

Most Strike Zone Runs Saved since 2015


8. Max Stassi, Astros
Max Stassi is an example of how putting the work into receiving pitches pays off. Jake Kaplan detailed how Stassi made himself a better pitch framer an offseason ago. Now, he’s on this list — rightfully so, given that he co-led the majors in SZRS in 2018 with Grandal and Flowers. Stassi hasn’t had as much of an opportunity to show off his refinements this season. He’s currently on the injured list with inflammation in his left knee.

9-10. Christian Vazquez and Sandy Leon, Red Sox
The Red Sox would be at or near the top of the list if we looked at which teams were the best at pitch framing, but since this is a list of individuals, we’ll give Vazquez and Leon equal billing for the final two spots. Each is particularly good at getting strikes on high pitches and inside pitches. The two have alternated being better by season, with Vazquez netting slightly better numbers in total.

Honorable mention
As you can imagine, there were other players under strong consideration. The next three on our list were Martin Maldonado (Royals), Mike Zunino (Rays) and Tony Wolters (Rockies). If you put them in your top 10, we wouldn’t argue with you. You’re welcome to debate it with us in the comments.

Meisel’s Musings: Jordan Luplow’s bid to chase away the ghosts of Brandon Guyer, Ryan Raburn and Jason Michaels


By Zack Meisel 2h ago 3
BOSTON — Forgive Jordan Luplow if he didn’t sleep well in his hotel room on Wednesday night, and not because of the hustling and bustling on Michigan Avenue in downtown Chicago.

The Indians will square off on the city’s south side on Thursday evening against Manny Banuelos, Luplow’s personal punching bag. Luplow has socked a trio of home runs in five at-bats against the southpaw this season.

He has feasted on left-handed pitching in general in 2019, to the tune of a .318/.388/.795 slash line. It’s those righties who have proven tough to crack (.167/.200/.190 clip).

Luplow doesn’t want to be pigeonholed into a strict platoon role, though. He doesn’t want inclusion on some new, knockoff version of that infamous pre-Baker Browns quarterback jersey that instead highlights the various right-handed hitting specialists who have come and gone. Jason Michaels, Ryan Raburn and Brandon Guyer will always have their place in Indians lore.

But Luplow wants to play on a daily basis. He wants to prove he can hit right-handed pitching.

“I know I can,” he said. “It’s there. You hit a bunch of home runs and do all this stuff off lefties — that shows that you can hit the ball. Just because it’s a righty doesn’t make it that much different. Maybe they’re pitching you a little different, their stuff is a little different, the angle is different. But it’s there.”

It’s not as though Luplow climbed through the Pirates’ system waiting for the day he’d earn a promotion to the majors to serve a part-time role. His splits didn’t reveal any glaring differences. He was named the organization’s Minor League Player of the Year in 2017. Let’s examine his minor-league splits the past three years.

Luplow vs. LHP in 2018: .254/.369/.468
Luplow vs. RHP in 2018: .268/.334/.425

Luplow vs. LHP in 2017: .308/.372/.585
Luplow vs. RHP in 2017: .279/.362/.475

Luplow vs. LHP in 2016: .228/.346/.368
Luplow vs. RHP in 2016: .267/.372/.446

This season, all six of Luplow’s home runs and nine of his 10 extra-base hits have come against lefties. The one time he harmed a righty: his go-ahead, two-run double in the ninth inning on Tuesday. Terry Francona could have turned to Leonys Martín to pinch-hit, but the manager stuck with Luplow, who was appreciative of the chance and rewarded Francona for his decision.

It’s a bit of a Catch-22. For Luplow to prove he deserves more playing time against righties, he has to hit righties. He can’t hit righties unless he receives playing time against righties.

“Opportunity,” he said. “I’ve been getting a lot of opportunities against lefties, so obviously I’m able to see them a lot more. Righties, a little less up here. It’s different than it is in the minor leagues. It just shows the detail that they go into up here, with matchups, the pitching changes you see mid-game, a lot of data-driven lineups, stuff like that.”

Why is it so much more difficult to hit a pitcher who shares the same handedness?

“There’s a reason guys switch-hit,” Luplow said. “There’s a reason it’s so envied to be left-handed or switch-hit. There are a lot more (right-handed pitchers). If someone does throw a lefty and you’re right-handed, it’s still coming in to you. You don’t have to worry about anything fading away, really. If you’re early on a same-side guy, if you’re fooled, you get the ass-out swings as it’s fading away from you.”

Quote to note
“He had it under control the whole day. He was composed. I didn’t see him flinch at anything that was thrown at him. He went out there and he did his thing and we backed him up. Man, he threw a hell of a game.” — Luplow, on Zach Plesac’s major-league debut
(Paul Rutherford / USA Today)
Final Thoughts
1. Carlos Santana recorded the Indians’ first triple of the season on Wednesday night, leaving the Marlins as the only club without a three-bagger. Naturally, two innings after Santana snapped Cleveland’s dry spell, Greg Allen supplied another triple. Allen tacked on the team’s third of the night in the seventh inning. Fenway Park’s funky dimensions certainly aided the cause. The Royals, by the way, entered Wednesday’s action with a league-high 22 triples.

Santana became the first Tribe hitter in 31 years (Joe Carter) with a triple and a home run in the same game at Fenway Park. He finished a single shy of the cycle. He said he considered bunting for that final hit in the ninth inning after he ran the idea past Sandy Alomar Jr., but third baseman Rafael Devers foiled that plan by playing far enough in on the infield grass.

2. This is the tiniest of sample sizes, but it’s worth mentioning how hard Allen hit the ball during the series in Boston.

Allen’s batted ball results:

Popout, 93.3 mph exit velocity
Flyout, 102.3 mph
Lineout, 97.1 mph
Lineout, 82.0 mph
Home run, 104.2 mph
Triple, 95.5 mph
Flyout, 96.0 mph
Triple, 101.9 mph
Lineout, 87.0 mph

“He’s going to have to look up at a batting average for a while that he doesn’t like,” Francona said. “He’s going to have to be mentally tough enough to know that he’s a good hitter. He hit balls on the nose the whole series. He didn’t get rewarded for it all the time, but he got some really big hits for us.”

Said Allen: “Whenever you’re having quality contact on a consistent basis, that usually points to you doing things the right way. That’s what you look for. As a hitter, there are so many things we can’t control. Being able to put a good swing on the ball, often times, it’s usually the result that you’re hoping for. There are times when you might hit a ball hard and it finds a glove, but you build that habit and you build those at-bats over time and eventually they start to fall in.”

3. Maybe José Ramírez simply needed a day to exhale. Francona rested the third baseman on Monday, and Ramírez responded with consecutive multi-hit performances for the first time since Aug. 14, 2018. In a matter of two days, Ramírez boosted his OPS to .623 from .593.

4. Oliver Pérez notched his 1,500th strikeout on Wednesday. Andrew Benintendi, the victim, was 7 years old when Pérez recorded his first career strikeout. That came against Ichiro Suzuki on June 16, 2002, during Pérez’s big-league debut with the Padres. Pérez and Ichiro played together a decade later in Seattle, and Pérez made sure to remind the future Hall of Famer of their first encounter. Pérez still has a video of the at-bat.

5. Danny … [checks notes] … Salazar has advanced to the throwing-live-batting-practice stage of his years-long recovery from shoulder trouble. It’s the furthest he has progressed in another season of setbacks and check-ups. There’s no telling if or when he’ll ever contribute to the Indians, of course. Salazar hasn’t thrown a pitch in a professional game since October 2017.

6. Francona will serve on Alex Cora’s coaching staff for the American League in the All-Star Game at Progressive Field in July. Francona said he was honored to receive the invitation, and added he would occupy the role of “hang-er on-er.”

Season on the Brink: What a Cleveland Indians rebuild could look like if things go south
Updated 6:12 AM; Today 5:02 AM
By Joe Noga, cleveland.com

CLEVELAND, Ohio — Expected to contend for a fourth consecutive division title, the Cleveland Indians have struggled to stay afloat in the American League Central Division with an offense that ranks at or near the bottom of the AL in several important categories.

Beset by injuries to a handful of top players, the Tribe has seen its hitters unable to consistently rise to the occasion. The sluggish start has led to speculation that some sort of rebuild could start soon. Factors from payroll to playing time will determine the type of team Cleveland will field for the rest of 2019 and beyond.

As the calendar approaches June, here’s a look at what could happen to the Tribe’s roster if a rebuild starts sooner than once anticipated.

What’s gone wrong?
Cleveland’s front office, under orders from ownership, cut payroll in the offseason by trading away sluggers Edwin Encarnacion and Yonder Alonso as well as catcher Yan Gomes, and not making a $17.9 million qualifying offer to free agent Michael Brantley.

The club opted not to pursue a free-agent bat to replace Encarnacion in the middle of the lineup. Instead, the Indians inked several past-their-prime hitters to minor-league contracts with invitations to spring training. Matt Joyce, Hanley Ramirez and Carlos Gonzalez each had opportunities to provide some sort of spark on offense, but could not generate what manager Terry Francona was looking for at the plate.

That left the Indians with a razor-thin margin for error, and when injuries struck Francisco Lindor and Jason Kipnis in spring training and the funk that enveloped Jose Ramirez at the plate for the final two months of 2018 carried over into the start of 2019, the Indians found themselves 10 games behind Minnesota in the AL Central on Memorial Day.

Through 53 games in 2018, the Indians had 28 wins, a .253 team batting average, 79 home runs and were averaging 5.0 runs per game. They had a 4 1/2 game lead in the division.

In 2019, the club had 26 wins in its first 53 games, a .222 team average and 54 home runs, scoring 3.8 runs per game.

In those first 53 games of 2018, Alonso, Encarnacion and Brantley accounted for 32 home runs.

Cleveland still has the pieces of a top-five starting pitching rotation; a bullpen that ranks No. 2 in the AL behind Houston; and the No. 4 overall player in baseball according to MLB.com’s preseason rankings in Lindor. But they haven’t felt this far from the top since late in the 2015 season.
Why rebuild?
Minnesota tried to load up for a run at the Indians’ AL Central crown last year by investing in pitching, but an underperforming rotation and a spate of injuries kept that club from ever really contending.

The Twins reloaded again this past offseason with several moves on the offensive side clearly made with Cleveland in mind, namely adding Nelson Cruz and Marwin Gonzalez, both noted Indians foils.

The new mix found its stride early under first-year manager Rocco Baldelli and has all the momentum a team needs to coast into the postseason. They hit 100 home runs in their first 50 games, becoming only the the second team in history to do so after the 1999 Seattle Mariners.

Even if Cleveland’s offense turns things around, and even if Corey Kluber and Mike Clevinger return to the rotation from injury and perform at a high level, the Indians would have to hold off at least two wild-card contenders such as Tampa Bay, Boston and Oakland to make the playoffs.

Could it happen? Sure.

But the opportunity is here now to further shed payroll and add controllable, young pieces that could sustain another championship window beginning in 2020 or shortly thereafter.

With Clevinger, Shane Bieber and Carlos Carrasco under team control and anchoring the pitching staff, and rising young players like Oscar Mercado and Zach Plesac ready to break through, it might make sense to see whether the franchise can survive trading the likes of Trevor Bauer and Kluber.
Trade candidates
If the season reaches a point where Cleveland’s front office decides to initiate some sort of rebuild, there are a few players on the current roster whose trade value could fetch a handsome return of prospects and big-league ready bats.

Trevor Bauer
Contract: Bauer is making $13 million after winning his arbitration case in the offseason. He is under club control for one more season (2020) in which he is likely to earn somewhere in the $20 million range. That’s more than the Tribe can afford.

2019 stats: 4-4, 3.99 ERA, 76 2/3 IP, 88 K, 1.16 WHIP.

What he could bring: Despite a dismal May that saw him go 0-3 with a 6.52 ERA and six home runs allowed in 29 innings, Bauer would still command a boatload of prospects and likely at least one young, controllable major league bat from a contending club. The Indians hesitated to pull the trigger on a Bauer trade in the offseason, preferring to hold out for the right deal. But teams will be less willing to part with marquee prospects if Cleveland waits until this offseason to move him, knowing that his potential arbitration award is unmanageable for the Tribe.
Corey Kluber
Contract: Kluber’s contract has club options for $17.5M in 2020 and $18M in 2021 (plus escalators) with $1M buyouts in both seasons. On the shelf with a broken arm since May 1, Kluber is probably not going anywhere for the rest of this season, but his contract makes him attractive to a younger team that needs a veteran anchor for its rotation, or a contender looking to add one more piece for a run.

2019 stats: 2-3, 5.80 ERA, 35 2/3 IP, 38 K, 1.65 WHIP.

What he could bring: If Kluber is able to pitch effectively again this season, he could be a prime trade candidate as soon as the offseason starts, commanding at least a team’s Top-30 prospect in return.
Brad Hand
Contract: Hand is under contract through 2020 with a $10M club option ($1M buyout) in 2021. His success early in this season is making him almost a lock to be traded if the Indians initiate a rebuild. Contending teams are always looking for back-end bullpen help. Ironically, the Minnesota native’s most ideal landing spot would be with the Twins, but there is very little chance either club would be interested in a trade among division rivals.

2019 stats: 2-2, 1.19 ERA, 22 2/3 IP, 33 K, 0.88 WHIP, 15 saves.

What he could bring: A contending team would likely have to part with a Top-30 prospect or a package of controllable, young players to get its hands on Hand.


Francisco Lindor
Contract: Lindor and the Indians agreed to a $10.55M contract in the shortstop’s first year of arbitration eligibility. He’s almost guaranteed to make about 13M in his second arbitration year and could top out anywhere around $25M in his final year (2021). It makes little sense to wait until the offseason after 2020 to trade Lindor, because teams will offer less, knowing that the Indians can’t afford to pay his third-year arbitration contract. He is probably not going to be traded in-season this year, but both Manny Machado and Bryce Harper started drawing trade rumors well before their final arbitration seasons. And their contracts this past offseason were said to have set the floor for Lindor’s impending free agency in 2022.

2019 stats: .289 BA, 7 HR, 19 RBI, 6 SB, .830 OPS.

What he could bring: The Indians would hold all the cards in a potential Lindor trade. They could ask for a major-league bat, controllable young talent and a haul of prospects, essentially ravaging a contender’s farm system. Trading Lindor earlier rather than later commands a higher return because a team would have two years of arbitration control over him before he hits the free agent market.
Potential trade partners
In years past, the Indians were buyers at the July trade deadline, and even further into each season at the August deadline as well. This year, there’s only one trade deadline, and if the Indians are going to be sellers, they’d better have a good idea which teams can offer the most in return.

New York Yankees

Why they’d make a deal: New York’s roster has been ravaged by injury since the beginning of the season, but manager Aaron Boone has been able to keep the Yankees at the top of the AL East with a clubhouse mix that includes the likes of ex-Indians minor leaguers Gio Urshela, Clint Frazier and Cameron Maybin. Their biggest need would be at shortstop, but Cleveland would certainly demand the sun, moon and stars for two full years of Lindor control.

Players the Indians might target:

Anthony Seigler, C: New York’s No. 6 overall prospect, according to MLB Pipeline, Seigler is a 19-year-old switch-hitting catcher who also fancies himself a switch-pitcher, throwing in the high 80s with equal effectiveness with both arms. A line-drive hitter to all fields, Seigler has demonstrated good patience at the plate and good bat speed. Picture a young Victor Martinez who could also become the Tribe’s first ambidextrous two-way player. Last year for the rookie league Pulaski Yankees, Seigler hit .266 with a .721 OPS. He had 21 hits in 24 games.

Antonio Cabello, OF: The No. 9 overall prospect in the Yankees farm system, Cabello was an international signee last year. The 18-year-old Venezuelan earns high grades for his speed and arm strength and has advanced discipline and bat-to-ball skills at the plate. He moved from catcher to center field before his pro debut. With New York’s rookie league team last year, Cabello hit .308 with five homers and 21 RBI and a .949 OPS in 46 games.

Luis Gil, RHP: New York’s No. 13 prospect, the 20-year-old Dominican has 58 strikeouts and a 1.12 WHIP in 42 innings this season for Class-A Charleston. At 6-foot-3, Gil has the makings of a dominant mid-to-late inning reliever with a fastball that regularly sits in the mid-to-high 90s and a plus curveball.


Los Angeles Dodgers

Why they’d make a deal: It’s no secret that the Dodgers and Indians were engaged in trade talks for Kluber and/or Bauer in the offseason that eventually fizzled because Cleveland stood by its high demands for either player. Los Angeles wasn’t willing to part with top outfield prospect Alex Verdugo, nor NL MVP candidate Cody Bellinger, and the first few months of the season have demonstrated why that was a good decision. But as contenders begin to materialize, L.A. needs to solidify its rotation for a third consecutive World Series run, and Bauer would be the perfect fit.

Players the Indians might target:

Keibert Ruiz, C: The No. 2 overall catching prospect in baseball according to MLB Pipeline, Ruiz is a switch-hitting 20 year old with good power and above-average plate discipline. He was the toughest batter to strike out in the Double-A Texas league last season. Currently hitting .285 with two home runs and 18 RBI in 39 games for the Tulsa Drillers, Ruiz projects as a 15-20 home run hitter in the big leagues.

Gavin Lux, SS: A first-round pick in 2016, Lux could project as a starting second baseman in the big leagues as early as next season. He has good power and makes consistent contact, with plus speed. The nephew of former college standout Augie Schmidt, Lux, 21, grew up around the game and developed good instincts. Last year he led all minor league shortstops in all three slash categories (.324/.399/.514) and led Tulsa to the Texas League title.

D.J. Peters, OF: Compared to Jayson Werth for his build (6-foot-6, 225-pounds) and athleticism, Peters is the No. 10 prospect in the Dodgers’ system. His power numbers have translated at every level he’s played including leading the rookie Pioneer League in total bases (161) and OPS (1.052) in his pro debut. He took MVP honors in the Class-A California league, and led all Double-A hitters in home runs (29) last season. Peters strikes out a lot, but can also hit the ball out of any park. His plus arm makes him destined to play right field in the big leagues.


San Diego Padres

Why they’d make a deal: The Padres might not have enough to challenge Los Angeles in the NL West, but they are a game out in the wild-card chase and they have the top farm system in all of baseball to construct a deal. San Diego has a young but talented pitching rotation that could use a veteran starter (or two) to solidify a spot in the playoff mix.

Players the Indians might target:

Luis Urias, 2B: Currently shredding the Pacific Coast League (AAA) to the tune of a .364 average with 13 home runs and 28 RBI, the 21-year-old infielder is the most polished hitter available in the Padres farm system (No. 3 overall). He won a California League batting title and the MVP award at age 19 and was a Double-A All-Star in 2017.

Hudson Potts, 3B: San Diego’s No. 12 prospect, Potts hit 20 home runs for Class-A Fort Wayne at age 18 and followed that up last year with 19 dingers in the California League. He’s shown an aptitude for making adjustments at every level and has found success since moving to third base from shortstop.

Josh Naylor, OF: Recently called up to the majors, Naylor is the brother of 2018 Indians first-round pick Bo Naylor. He’s played in two All-Star Futures games and was hitting .299 with 10 home runs and 35 RBI for El Paso (AAA) when he was promoted.


Give them a look
The other side of a potential rebuild is the opportunity for the Indians to evaluate their young talent at the major league level after cutting ties with heftier veteran contracts. Francona acknowledged last week that the club needs to find out what it has in its less experienced players such as Mercado, Tyler Naquin and Greg Allen.

Mercado, 24, appears to be settling in, batting .333 with an .880 OPS in 12 games since his major league debut May 14.

Allen, 26, made the opening day roster, but struggled to a .106 average in his first 19 games and was sent down to Triple-A Columbus for a month. After rejoining the club he’s hit in two of four games, including the game-winning home run against Boston on Tuesday and two triples in Wednesday’s 14-9 slugfest.

Naquin, 28, on the injured list with a calf strain since May 14, had three hits in nine at-bats including a home run in three rehab games with Columbus and Double-A Akron.

A rebuild would also give the Indians longer looks at players such as Jordan Luplow and Jake Bauers, and the incentive to give prospects such as Bobby Bradley (14 homers, 38 RBI, .954 OPS at Columbus) a chance to get their feet wet.

“We’re at a point where we feel like we need to find out about some of these younger guys,” Francona said. “If we don’t find out that could be a mistake. We need to find out if these guys are guys that we can win with. And sometimes the answer’s yes and sometimes the answer’s no, but not knowing is not good.”
Check back Monday for Season on the Brink Part 2, which will look at what the Indians’ options are if they decide to make moves and try to contend for the playoffs this year.

Buy or sell? Evaluating the Indians’ options as trade season approaches

By Zack Meisel 2h ago 10
CLEVELAND — There’s only one date circled on every general manager’s calendar this year: July 31. The August waiver deadline no longer exists.

So, the market should develop more quickly than it has in years past. For the Indians, it means the front office might have to come to grips with its harsh reality sooner than it would have preferred.

The Indians (29-30) sit 11.5 games behind the Twins in the AL Central. They’re a half-game closer in record to league-worst Baltimore (18-41) than to Minnesota (40-18).

Chris Antonetti and Mike Chernoff face some difficult decisions, ones that should determine the path of the franchise. Does the team fit the description of a seller? Should it gear up for one more run at a division title or a wild-card berth?

How the Indians approach the next eight weeks will shed light on how the organization feels about its chances of contending in 2020 and beyond.

The case to buy
The Twins own baseball’s best winning percentage … so they have to cool off at some point, right? Let’s not forget the Indians and Twins will meet Tuesday night for Date No. 4 of 19 this season; they haven’t even met each other’s parents yet.

And once Corey Kluber and Mike Clevinger return to the mound and Jason Kipnis and Jake Bauers and Leonys Martín and José Ramírez and Greg Allen and Tyler Naquin and Kevin Plawecki and Willie Mays Hayes and Pedro Cerrano and Tanner Boyle and Mike Engelberg get going at the plate, the Indians should, at the least, be in position to snag a wild-card berth, right?

Cleveland’s needs are obvious: Just trade for a bat … or two … or three. Nick Castellanos might cost the club, say, Yu Chang. Another hitter from the Reds or Nationals or Mariners or Royals might cost the team a lower-level prospect or two. But such is life as a contender, right?

This plan doesn’t seem wise. At this point, the team hasn’t demonstrated that a couple of additions would vault it from floundering to flourishing, and it’s not worth the risk of further damaging the future when this season already seems like such an uphill climb.

The case to sell
When a team’s best chance at October action appears to be a wild-card berth — a chance at having a 50-50 chance at earning a Division Series matchup — is it prudent to push the chips to the center of the table?

Odds are, the Indians aren’t going to tear down the roster to the studs. That would require trades of Trevor Bauer, Brad Hand, Carlos Carrasco, Mike Clevinger, Francisco Lindor and others. That sort of overhaul isn’t happening in a matter of weeks.

Bauer is the most trad-able asset, and the Indians know his Cleveland calendar only runs through October 2020 anyway. So, they might as well flip him now for a young position player or two and allow a contender to pay the premium for two Bauer-aided postseason pushes.

If an enticing offer arrives involving Hand, it’s worth consideration. Hand has a more-than-reasonable salary next season ($7.5 million) and an affordable club option for 2021 ($10 million), and he’s been unflappable as the Tribe closer, but if he could bring the Indians a haul, Antonetti would have to listen. The same tactic applies to Carlos Santana.

The Lindor conversation will surface at some point, but he seems more likely to be moved after the season or sometime in 2020, if at all. Both sides seem to understand the reality of that situation.

Anyone want Martín or Plawecki or Oliver Pérez? Have at it.

Hey, Dodgers, care to revisit those offseason trade talks and pretend that Kluber’s value hasn’t plummeted, thanks to his bruised ERA and broken right arm? No? Hello? Are you still there? Thanks for nothing, Verizon.

Barring a June surge, it’s hard to argue against the Indians selling. Really, it’s just about the degree to which they sell. They might be able to hang around in the wild-card race even if they move a piece or two, and they have to try to recoup some young assets because it’s not like Class AAA is brimming with talent-oozing position players. (That said, we’re all ready to see whether Bobby Bradley can mash major-league pitching.)
The case to do neither
Issue is, Bauer and Hand are the only two obvious trade pieces who would net the Indians premier talent. Clevinger and Bieber aren’t going anywhere. Trade stock for Kluber and Ramírez has tumbled. Even Bauer might have decreased his value a bit with his last month of work, which leans more toward pedestrian than otherworldly.

So, in that case, why not just hang on to what the team has, stand pat, hope for some rebounds and health, and tweak the roster this winter when Kipnis’ cumbersome contract comes off the books?

This seems plausible but could hinder the club’s efforts to build a contender for 2020 and beyond. This might make more sense if the Twins weren’t fixated on running away with the division.

The case to do both
The Indians have planned all along to transition from the old core — Kipnis, Kluber, Yan Gomes, Michael Brantley — to the new nucleus without enduring a painful rebuild in between. They dangled Kluber and Bauer last winter in part because they trusted a rotation anchored by Clevinger, Carrasco, Bieber and the surviving trade candidate.

The key to that strategy is reaping some benefits from the final years of those veterans’ contracts. Since they didn’t pin Kluber’s contract on another team, the Indians will have to decide whether they want to fit his club options worth $17.5 million and $18 million the next two seasons into their financial framework. Had they been able to saddle some other team with Kipnis’ salary — and they tried the last two offseasons — perhaps they would have made an effort to re-sign Brantley, or sign any other position player who didn’t peak during Barack Obama’s first term. (Just because Hanley Ramírez and Carlos Gonzalez excelled when “Toy Story 3” was the top-grossing movie in the country doesn’t mean they were bound to return to those heights with “Toy Story 4” coming out this summer.)

It’s all about the timeline.

The Indians are stocked with talented position players in the lower levels of the minors, guys who probably aren’t yet established enough to serve as attractive trade bait, but who offer hope for four or five years from now. But what about the interim?

The pitching side seems promising, with Clevinger, Carrasco, Bieber, Zach Plesac, Jefry Rodriguez, Triston McKenzie, Eli Morgan, Aaron Civale and a slew of intriguing young relievers. For fun, go plug in the names James Karinchak, Kyle Nelson, Robert Broom, Nick Sandlin and Argenis Angulo into Baseball Reference’s search function.

We’ll wait.

(“Jeopardy!” theme plays)

(James Holzhauer flashes awkward smile)

Impressive stuff, huh? A ton of strikeouts. Microscopic hit rates.

Pitching can make the Indians a formidable team for the foreseeable future. All of the big-league holes reside in the lineup.

And there’s that one giant metaphorical elephant standing in the center of Antonetti’s fourth-floor office: Lindor.

Eventually, the front office and ownership must determine if and when it makes sense to deal the star shortstop, and what sort of ramifications that decision will have on the roster, the farm system and the fan base. As long as he remains on the Indians’ roster, he gives the team a better chance of winning. It makes little sense to keep him in Cleveland for next season if the team isn’t forging ahead and attempting to capture a championship. But if winning is the primary goal in 2020, the Indians can complete some retooling over the next six months to make that aim more realistic.

If the Indians can get a major-league-ready position player or two for Bauer, they might as well pull the trigger. If a team submits a tantalizing offer for Hand, they should go ahead, but they shouldn’t settle.

And at the same time, Antonetti should scour the market for some cost-controlled pieces, players who would fill some of the glaring gaps in roster assembly.

This doesn’t have to be a simple sell-off. The Indians can pinpoint some position players who would stick around Cleveland beyond 2019. This is how the front office attempted to approach the offseason. They’ll be six months tardy with the maneuvering. And this time they’ll have a strict deadline.

(Top photo: David Richard / USA Tod

Ok, I am done chuckling over the wildcard references.

Tampa Bay is killing it again this year. And then there's those Yankees and Red Sox.

Not happening.