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Jim Duquette: The Top 10 pitching prospects in baseball
By Jim Duquette Apr 17, 2019 87
The outlook for dominant young starting pitching in the minor leagues is bright. This is in spite of recent changes at the major-league level, where the 200 innings pitched benchmark is becoming harder to reach, and teams are relying more on super-bullpens. Seven of my top 10 pitching prospects are 22 years old or younger, and the youngest, MacKenzie Gore, makes the list at the ripe old age of 20. In putting together these rankings, I used a combination of pure stuff and a pitcher having at least two potential above-average pitches, plus at least one additional average major-league pitch. If they develop quickly, each of the pitchers in this Top 10 will be capable of helping their major league team within the next two seasons. Of course, staying healthy is the biggest factor in whether they’ll be able to dominate at the major-league level at an early age.
Before we get to the list, a quick glossary:
The scouting scale is 20 – 80, with 50 being a major-league average grade and 80 being elite.
There are two grades here. First is the present grade, for the pitch as it would play in the major leagues right now. The second is the future grade — what each pitch is expected to be in the future, when at its peak.
FB = fastball; CB = curveball; SL = slider; CH = changeup; SPLIT = splitfinger fastball.
1. Forrest Whitley, Astros
Age: 21 Height: 6’7” Weight: 195 Throws: R
FB: 60/70 CB: 60/60 SL: 60/60 CH: 60/70 Command: 50/60
2018 stats (AA)
IP: 26.1 ERA: 3.76 K/9: 11.6 BB/9: 3.8 K/BB: 3.09
Whitley has flown quickly through the minor leagues. He has electric late life on his fastball, a true weapon which, even if he had no other pitches, would be good enough to dominate minor-league hitters. But Whitley does have other pitches, including an excellent downer curveball that, when paired with his fastball up in the zone, can further frustrate hitters. He also has the makings of a well-above-average change that, with refinement, will give Whitley a third dominant pitch. Add in a slider that has true break but can also be used as a cutter inside to left-handed hitters, and Whitley’s arsenal is good enough to make him a No. 1 starter once he figures out his delivery and command of said pitches. If he hadn’t been suspended for 50 games in 2018 for violating the minor-league drug program, and then missed further time due to a lat strain, Whitley might very well be pitching alongside Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole in the majors right now — that’s how devastating his mix of stuff is. Look for him to be ready to help the Astros later this summer, much like Walker Buehler did for the Dodgers in 2018.
2. Michael Kopech, White Sox
Age: 22 Height: 6’3” Weight: 205 Throws: R
FB: 70/80 CB: 50/50 SL: 60/70 CH: 50/60 Command: 50/50
2018 stats (AAA)
IP: 126.1 ERA: 3.70 K/9: 12.1 BB/9: 4.3 K/BB: 2.83
One of the most dominant pitchers in the game during his rise through the minor leagues, Kopech reminds me of a young A.J. Burnett, with a devastating fastball that ranges from 95-100 mph, with late riding action, that he throws aggressively to any hitter. His slider is also impressive, with a sharp late break away from right-handed hitters and down-and-in to lefties. When he is able to repeat his delivery consistently, those two pitches will make him a top-of-the-rotation starter in the majors. Just to give hitters even more problems, Kopech was in the process of refining a curveball with average spin that could be a quality change-of-speed pitch, along with a change-up that needs to be thrown more before it can become a true weapon. After a short 14-inning stint in the majors, where he looked like he was ready to stay, Kopech suffered an injury to his elbow which required Tommy John surgery. The White Sox will patiently await his return, either at the end of 2019 or the start of 2020.
3. Jesús Luzardo, Athletics
Age: 21 Height: 6’0” Weight: 210 Throws: L
FB: 60/70 CB: 60/60 CH: 60/60 Command: 60/60
2018 stats (A+/AA/AAA)
IP: 109.1 ERA: 2.88 K/9: 10.6 BB/9: 2.5 K/BB: 4.30
Luzardo does not have the physical presence that Whitley or Kopech do; his pitching frame is similar to that of Johan Santana. Luzardo has a nice, fluid arm action and sometimes pitches against a stiff front leg, which can make his breaking ball inconsistent on occasion. But the fastball life and velocity are real, registering as high as 94-98 mph with swing-and-miss type movement. He has moved quickly through the A’s system since being acquired with Blake Treinen in a trade for Sean Doolittle and Ryan Madson — a deal that worked well for the Nationals in the short term, but favors Oakland in the long run. Luzardo was poised to make the rotation this April before an injury to his left shoulder put him on the injured list, but he’s expected back in mid-to-late May.
4. MacKenzie Gore, Padres
Age: 20 Height: 6’3” Weight: 195 Throws: L
FB: 60/60 CB: 60/60 SL: 50/60 CH: 60/70 Command: 50/60
2018 stats (A)
IP: 60.2 ERA: 4.45 K/9: 11.0 BB/9: 2.7 K/BB: 4.11
Gore’s numbers as a high school senior illustrated how dominant he was: 158 strikeouts to only five walks, justifying the Padres’ selection of him with their first-round pick at No. 3 overall in the 2017 draft. His long stride when he lands towards home plate gives hitters trouble, and makes his fastball “play up” a tick, looking faster to hitters than a mid-90s heater ordinarily would. Even while dealing with blisters last season, which pushed him to the injured list on two different occasions, Gore managed to pitch well before the Padres shut him down in August. His breaking pitches were adversely affected as well, but his curveball will be a swing-and-miss pitch this year, crossing the plate in the mid-to-high 70s, and his change-up has fading action with a downward tumble to it. His slider shows flashes of late break, and should improve with better health as well. Both offspeed pitches project to be above average. His high leg raise at balance gives him extra deception, but could potentially lead to lower-half problems in the future if he’s not careful. Until then, lefties and righties will continue to have a tough time recognizing his pitch arsenal.
5. Casey Mize, Tigers
Age: 21 Height: 6’3” Weight: 225 Throws: R
FB: 60/70 SL: 50/60 SPLIT: 60/70 Command: 60/60
2018 stats (Rookie, A+)
IP: 13.2 ERA: 3.95 K/9: 9.2 BB/9: 2.0 K/BB: 4.67
When you are drafted first overall and receive a record signing bonus of over $7 million, it goes without saying that expectations can be ridiculously high. As an elite college pitcher, Mize is not only mature enough to handle them, he has the pitching arsenal to prove any doubters wrong. His split-finger fastball is one of the most dominant pitches I’ve seen in recent memory, and his ability to command it, induce soft contact, and also use it to get swings and misses is impressive. That pitch, combined with his regular fastball, which has angry movement to both sides of the plate with command, gives Mize the mix of pitches to be a top-of-the-rotation starter. His slider has made big strides, though some scouts believe it needs more consistency. But as long as Mize continues to stay healthy, his three-pitch combination indicates that he should arrive in Detroit within the next 18 months, if not sooner. His overall size and delivery should make him a 200-inning starter for the next Tigers postseason club.
Casey Mize (Mark Cunningham / MLB photos via Getty Images)
6. Brent Honeywell, Rays
Age: 24 Height: 6’2” Weight: 195 Throws: R
FB: 60/60 CB: 40/40 SL: 50/60 CH: 50/60 Screwball: 60/60 Command: 50/60
2017 stats (AA/AAA)
IP: 136.2 ERA: 3.49 K/9: 11.3 BB/9: 2.3 K/BB: 4.91
Honeywell has steadily climbed the minor-league ladder with an impressive mix of pitches. As he refined his skills and learned to set up hitters, his strikeout rate steadily improved, reaching an impressive 29 percent in Triple A during 2017. I saw Honeywell dominate with all of his pitches in the Sirius/XM Futures game that year, showing that he was ready to pitch in the major leagues right away. Unfortunately, he did not get the call that season, and then in spring training of 2018, he injured his elbow, requiring Tommy John surgery. The hope is that he’ll be back pitching in minor-league games sometime in the next month or so, with the possibility of arriving in Tampa later this summer — provided he can crack the impressive Rays pitching staff, which is currently leading the league in ERA. It remains to be seen if his five-pitch mix will be successful at the MLB level, or if he would be better served in scrapping one of them.
7. Sixto Sanchez, Marlins
Age: 20 Height: 6’0” Weight: 190 Throws: R
FB: 70/80 CB: 50/60 CH: 50/60 Command: 50/60
2018 stats (A+)
IP: 46.2 ERA: 2.51 K/9: 8.7 BB/9: 2.1 K/BB: 4.09
Several evaluators, including The Athletic’s Jim Bowden, have made comparisons between Sanchez and a young Pedro Martínez, and he certainly has the early pedigree and mix of stuff to justify that, despite only striking out 23 percent of hitters last season. His profile — and the expectations around him — were further raised after he was traded to Miami in the J.T. Realmuto deal this spring. Elbow inflammation slowed him in 2018, and there will be questions about his durability, because of his shorter frame, until proven otherwise. But the combination of an electric fastball, wipeout curve and potentially above-average changeup allow him to pitch deep into games, a sign that he’ll be a future ace for the Marlins. Continued work on the development of his change, and simply staying healthy, should be all that Sanchez needs to have huge 2019.
8. Mike Soroka, Braves
Age: 21 Height: 6’5” Weight: 220 Throws: R
FB: 60/70 SL: 50/60 CH: 60/60 Command: 60/60
2018 stats (A/AAA)
IP: 30.2 ERA: 1.76 K/9: 10.0 BB/9: 1.8 K/BB: 5.67
Soroka was drafted by the Braves late in the first round out of high school, and three short years later he found himself pitching in Atlanta. He has a quality three-pitch mix, and uses his fastball effectively at 92-94 mph to retire hitters early in the count — or can reach back for a little more to put them away. His strikeout rate jumped from 19.9 percent in Double A up to almost 30 percent when he was promoted to Triple A, before he was called up to the majors in 2018. After putting up a 3.51 ERA there in 25 2/3 innings, he was placed on the injured list last June with a shoulder issue. However, he was at full strength going into spring training in February. He already has above-average fastball location and the ability to change speeds off of his slider; as his changeup improves, look for him to build on his already dominant performance and push the Braves for a spot in their rotation again this year.
9. Chris Paddack, Padres
Age: 23 Height: 6’4” Weight: 205 Throws: R
FB: 60/60 CB: 40/50 CH: 60/70 Command: 60/60
2018 stats (A+/AA)
IP: 90.0 ERA: 2.10 K/9: 12.0 BB/9: 0.8 K/BB: 15.00
Paddack arrived in the majors without much fanfare, but has opened many eyes with his early season success. Traded to San Diego for Fernando Rodney in 2016, he missed all of 2017 due to TJ surgery. After an impressive 2018 between A+ and Double A, where his ERA was a minuscule 2.10 in 90 innings, Paddack grabbed a starting spot in San Diego this year without pitching an inning in Triple A. His success so far in 2019 has come the same way it did in the minors, via his fastball and changeup, occasionally mixing in his curveball. Manager Andy Green has told me that what has impressed him most, even more than Paddack’s strong start to the season, is Paddack’s focus and determination to be better, analyzing his starts and thinking about how to improve each day. Look for Paddack to change his mix of pitches a bit as the league sees more of him.
10. Kyle Wright, Braves
Age: 23 Height: 6’4” Weight: 205 Throws: R
FB: 60/70 CB: 60/6 SL: 50/60 CH: 50/60 Command: 50/60
2018 stats (AA/AAA)
IP: 138.0 ERA: 3.46 K/9: 8.7 BB/9: 3.3 K/BB: 2.61
After 24 minor-league starts and 138 innings in his first full season, Wright made his major-league debut for the Braves in 2018, though he pitched sparingly out of the bullpen, throwing just six innings. Instead of trusting his stuff and challenging hitters, Wright’s BB/9 skyrocketed by 400 percent in those outings — and unfortunately, that trend has continued for him in 2019. In three starts, Wright uncharacteristically walked almost as many as he struck out, and ultimately was optioned back to the minors last week. Still, his four-pitch mix is impressive overall, and with a mid-to-high 90s fastball, above-average slider, curve and change, I have no doubt he will be a top-of-the-rotation starter for the Braves. His command of those pitches will need to improve dramatically, but with patience, Wright should be dominant again.
(Top photo of Whitley: Joel Auerbach / Getty Images)
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