10311
by TFIR
Perhaps the Tribe read this writeup on Shane Bieber, and that's why they're ready to deal Kluber...oh that and the many holes on the roster I guess... this is from a fantasy baseball article but with lots of stats to back it up (try to get past this guy's weird sense of humor)
I’ll admit that I didn’t go heavy on the Shane Bieber info in the lede ‘graphs for one big reason. Everything about him is gorge, so there’s little to say except how wonderful he is. In 114 2/3 IP last year, he gave up 23 walks. He had a top 13 walk rate (when sorting by 110 IP), and here’s the guys above him in K/9: Verlander, Stripling and *raspberries lips*
Him and Kluber both had 9.3 K/9 with obscenely walk rates. Stripling (10 K/9) and Verlander (12.2) and no one else. Maybe I’m a daydream Bieber, but 9.3 K/9 and a 1.8 BB/9 doesn’t make him a sleeper. It makes him a top 20 starter who just doesn’t happen to have that many innings under his belt. His 3.30 xFIP last year was 20th in the league, about the same as Syndergaard, Nola and Strasburg. Every stat you look up with Biebs, you find a group of starters who you’d like to own for where Bieber is being drafted. He had the tenth highest Zone% for his pitches and his Swinging Strike rate was 11.4%.
Only James Paxton matches him in that respect. His K-BB% was 19.6%, which was similar to Charlie Morton. His ground ball rate was even sexy at 46.6%, just above Jacob deGrom. He was top 30 for lowest number of fly balls, near Morton and Nola again. The only stat he’s bad in, and he was the absolute worst in the league was BABIP (.356). A sign that he was hit by some terrible luck. Basically, if a ground ball was headed right for Lindor, a squirrel would grab the ball and throw it into left field for a single. Sometimes, the squirrel would toss it to his friend, a badger, who would then kick the ball for extra bases, allowing runs to score. If Beiber didn’t have bad luck, he’d have no luck at all.
Speaking of no luck, if he has simply neutral luck this year, he’s a top 30 starter, with a chance for a top 20 starter season, and he’s being drafted after 200 overall in some leagues. The Indians and I (we’re a team now, apparently) had great luck with Trevor Bauer last year. This year, give me that Biebs! For 2019, I’ll give Shane Bieber projections of 13-7/3.45/1.12/154 in 156 IP with a chance for much more.
"I've suffered a great many tragedies in my life....most of them never happened". Mark Twain