Now that Kevin Love is extended, is Larry Nance Jr. next?
By David Zavac Jul 30, 2018 6
Now that Kevin Love’s bank account, and status in Cleveland, is a bit more secure, the Cavaliers can turn toward the other player they’ve made a big investment in over the last five months: Larry Nance Jr. Heading into the final season of his rookie deal, Nance is set to make a little less than $2.3 million in 2018-19. It stands to reason that Cleveland would want to lock him up long term, and there are indications they’re working on it now.
The Cavs gave up a 2018 first-round pick, plus absorbed the contract of Jordan Clarkson to bring Nance into the fold (they also shipped off Isaiah Thomas and Channing Frye, since returned), in what was something of a breakout season for the 25-year-old. The third-year power forward/center posted a career-high true shooting rate on his highest usage and rebounded a higher percentage of available offensive and defensive rebounds than he had before.
He’s an interesting case for a number of reasons. He’s never played as many as 23 minutes per game in the NBA, and it’s unclear whether he can withstand the rigor of starting at the center position. After a brilliant start in Cleveland, he got banged up and his performance declined. He doesn’t have shooting range in a league that’s increasingly looking for it; it’s unlikely, as he enters his age-26 season, that he’ll ever develop it. He’s not a traditional shot blocker.
He does, however, bring elite athleticism and energy to the table. As a super-sub big, he can avoid the wear and tear of big minutes, run the floor, wreak havoc with active hands defensively and dunk lobs and putbacks.
Does the team see him as more than that? His age and the amount of time he’s been in the league can play tricks on you. Is there upside? Can he get bigger or handle more minutes? You’d look at his age and say what he is now is pretty much what he’ll be. You look at his actual game experience and think there’s room for him to learn, whether it’s as a team defender or in terms of facilitating or cutting. The Cavs will have to navigate what he is now, versus what they think he can be. The good news is, he’s already pretty good. This isn’t a bet on someone who has never performed, or an extension based on a single playoff series. Even so, you wish there was a longer track record.
The Cavs will also have to navigate what they have on their roster. Given his shooting limitations, Nance is best served at center, or next to a center that can shoot. Love played center for most of last season. Are they still committed to that? Love chafed at it, and it would make sense to go into the season with Love and Nance as your starting frontcourt. It’s a pretty good one! But the team also has Tristan Thompson, who would be difficult to move, Ante Zizic, who deserves a shot to play, and now Frye, who might be the guy a coach like Tyronn Lue trusts with the team winning games.
In reality, though, Love and Zizic are the only ones who should definitely be part of the team’s long-term plans. This is what makes Nance a priority for keeping long term. Perhaps Thompson has a bounce-back year in him; it’s unlikely, but you could find room for all three over the next couple of years if you really wanted to. In all likelihood, though, an energized Thompson just makes him a bit easier to move.
In terms of dollars and cents, it’s hard to ever know what the sides are looking for. The Cavs can be patient, and Nance has an injury history and about one season of close-to-high-level play. On the other hand, the team already has quite a bit invested in him, and he’s a fan favorite. He’s been great in the locker room and is the type of guy teams like to employ. If the deal were richer than four years and $50 million or so, I think I’d raise my eyebrows a bit. This is not a Thompson or J.R. Smith situation, where the team risks losing him for nothing. He doesn’t have that much leverage. At three or four years around $10 million per year? That’s something that would seem to make sense for everyone.
Last positive thing about an extension: Even if things go south for the Cavs this season and they end up missing a playoff spot or trading Love, having Nance in the fold makes sense for a team trying to win or lose. He’s a young prospect worth investing in. We’ll see whether they can get something done.
Re: Cleveland Cavaliers
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