civ ollilavad wrote:Some interesting stuff going on with Union vs Management this spring. Spring training camp for the unsigned. Contract disputes. Holdouts. Lawsuits. Might be an exciting start to the season.
We haven't addressed this here, but what the hell. It's the elephant in the room for the dirge that is the offseason.
My take is that many aspects have contributed. First and foremost is the $197 million cap....err...tax point. Make no mistake about it even the Yankees and Dodgers do NOT want over that cap because it is very punitive. Those were the types of teams that would splurge in the past and are holding back now.
But almost as important are the front office staffing now. Every team has an industrial sabermetrics/stats department and the research shows that the majority of long term contracts - ESPECIALLY to guys 30+ do not work out. (Look no further than Jacob Ellsbury with the Yankees as to a total disaster 7 year contract that NY is stuck with) Bottom line those types of contracts were impulse buys in the past by less informed people making the decisions.
This new breed is too smart for that. (and by the way there's a reason the Jays grabbed Shapiro. He built a front office that was the forerunner of these modern day ones - look at all the guys who have been plucked from the team. Luckily we kept Antonetti/Chernoff.) Remember the LA Dodgers bringing in Andrew Friedman from the Rays??? This trend is very real - running the big market teams smarter like the small and middle markets were forced to do for a long while now.
So now this offseason. Agents STILL want to operate under the old paradigm in their contract demands. Guess what? The front offices now are too smart for that. Shorter term contracts are now the rage unless the star player is still in their 20s (and even then....hmm)
Also money is being allocated towards relievers (big contracts for the Shaws and Joe Smiths of the world) because it's smarter more cost effective allocation of funds. By the way Tito and the KC Royals showed the world how smart and effective that was.
Bottom line agents (ahem Scott Boras) have to understand that they aren't dealing with dummies anymore - these guys are Ivy league grads and will not be bullshitted. They have their spreadsheets for their defense and are not budging.
Time for agents to recalibrate. The new rules all around (last CBA included) have taken effect. Agents doing a VERY poor job of adjusting. But they will be forced to eventually. In the meantime, standstill.
The few contracts so far - Jay Bruce at 3 for $39 mill, Todd Frazier for 2 years at $17 mill and yes our Yonder Alonso for 2 years at $16 mill - that is the pattern these days. Smart moves by the Mets and Indians. They found agents willing to move in the new direction and they still ain't going to no soup kitchens.
"I've suffered a great many tragedies in my life....most of them never happened". Mark Twain