What do the Cleveland Indians need to fix? Edwin Encarnacion and the starting rotation
By Paul Hoynes, cleveland.com
phoynes@cleveland.com
CLEVELAND, Ohio - Every season is different and no team exemplifies that more than the Indians.
After 57 games last year they were 32-25 with a 21/2-game lead in the AL Central. They moved into first place in Game No. 54 and did not relinquish it for the rest of the season. What's more, they were eight games away from going on their franchise record 14-game winning streak, the turning point of the season.
This year the Indians are 29-28 after 57 games. After losing to Colorado on Wednesday, they trailed first place Minnesota by one game.
The roster is basically the same - Edwin Encarnacion replacing Mike Napoli was the biggest change - but it's hard to imagine this year's team coming anywhere close to last year's winning streak. They just completed a 1-4 trip in which they lost two out of three to the Royals and were outclassed by the NL West-leading Rockies.
There is an old baseball saying that goes, "no team is as good as it looks when it's winning or as bad as it looks when it's losing." The Indians better hope there is some truth in that because if the gap between a contender and the kind of baseball they're playing is as wide as it appeared to be against the Rockies at Coors Field - DH or no DH - they're in trouble.
Terry Francona is about as protective a manager as the Indians have had when it comes to defending his players. But on this last trip, he was obviously trying to send them a message.
After a 12-5 loss to the Royals on Saturday, he said, "that wasn't close to good enough."
Following Wednesday's 8-1 loss to the Rockies, Francona said, "What I really care about more than anything is just our ability to value how important every game is, and leave it out on the field. If it's not good enough, then we'll come back tomorrow. If we do that, we're going to be OK."
If you're into subliminal messages, does that sound like Francona was questioning the effort of this team?
Let's see what the numbers say. Here's a look at the performances of certain Indians at the 57-game mark this year compared to last year.
A big difference offensively has been the lack of production in the middle of the lineup from Encarnacion compared to what the Indians received from Napoli. Encarnacion is hitting .230 (45-for-196) with 24 runs, four doubles, 10 homers, 22 RBI. He has 30 walks, 61 strikeouts and a .745 OPS.
The Tribe's DH is tied for sixth on the team in RBI. Lonnie Chisenhall, with 101 fewer at-bats, has one more RBI than Encarnacion.
Napoli hit .234 (48-for-205) with 38 runs, 10 doubles, 14 homers and 42 RBI through 57 games last year. He had 20 walks, 83 strikeouts and a .802 OPS.
Last year in Toronto, Encarnacion was hitting .248 (54-for-218) with 24 runs, 13 doubles, 11 homers and 44 RBI after 57 games. He had 52 strikeouts, 22 walks and a .781 OPS.
The other big difference has been in the starting rotation. The rotation ended 2016 with the second-lowest ERA in the American League. Today they rank last at 4.87.
Here are some of the reasons why.
Josh Tomlin was 8-1 with a 3.54 ERA in 10 starts at the 57-game mark last year. He had 41 strikeouts, seven walks with 24 earned runs allowed in 61 innings.
This year Tomlin is 3-7 with a 5.54 ERA in 11 starts. He's allowed 39 earned runs in 63 innings. Tomlin's strikeout and walk production have remained consistent - 44 punch outs and four walks.
Danny Salazar was 6-3 with a 2.24 ERA after 11 starts in 2016. He allowed 17 earned runs in 68 1/3 innings and was headed for the All-Star Game.
This year Salazar is 3-5 with a 5.40 ERA in 12 games, including 10 starts. He's allowed 33 earned runs in 55 innings. Salazar is on the disabled list with a sore right shoulder.
Trevor Bauer opened last year in the bullpen, but was back in the rotation by the time the Indians hit the 57-game mark. He was 4-2 with a 3.88 ERA in eight starts. He struck out 57, walked 22 and allowed 26 earned runs in 60 1/3 innings.
This year Bauer is 5-5 with a 6.10 ERA in 12 starts. He's allowed 42 earned runs in 62 innings. Bauer has 76 strikeouts and 25 walks.
The loss of Corey Kluber for most of May with a back injury didn't help. Mike Clevinger came up and did a nice job filling in, but Kluber's workload was missed. He was only 5-6 with a 3.84 ERA at this time last year, but he'd already thrown 79 2/3 innings in 12 starts. This year he's 4-2 with a 4.36 ERA in seven starts, but he's thrown only 43 1/3 innings.
When three-fifths of the rotation isn't pitching well, it doesn't matter how good the bullpen is and the Indians have a good one. If there are no leads to protect, having the top-rated bullpen in the league doesn't do anyone much good.
The Indians have received a boost at the top of the lineup with Michael Brantley's return, but it has been muted somewhat because Jason Kipnis opened the year on the disabled list. Last year Kipnis was hitting .263 (59-for-224) with 31 runs, 10 doubles, seven homers, 29 RBI and a .730 OPS. He's hitting .226 (36-for-159) with seven doubles, seven homers and 22 RBI in 41 games this year.
Shortstop
Francisco Lindor's batting average has dropped from .308 (69-for-224) after 57 games last year to .267 (59-for-221) this year. He's doubled his home run production from six to 12, but he had 29 RBI last year compared to 26 this year. Lindor's stolen bases have dropped from 10 to three this year, but his OPS has jumped from .809 to .842.
Third baseman Jose Ramirez's average has dropped from .310 (52-for-168) to .290 (60-for-207), but that could be because he's playing every day instead of bouncing between left field and third as he did at this time last year. Ramirez, however, has gone from three homers to eight, while his OPS has stayed about the same -- .832 this year compared to .830 in 2016.
Chisenhall, despite two trips to the disabled list, has helped the offense. He's hitting .275 (26-for-95) with six doubles, seven homers, 23 RBI and a .922 OPS. Last year he was hitting .288 (32-for-111) with eight doubles, two homers, 11 RBI and a .808 OPS at this point of the season.
Carlos Santana has been his steady self. Last year he hit .229 (48-for-210) with nine doubles, 10 homers and 27 RBI, while moving between the leadoff and No.5 spots. He struck out 29 times, drew 31 walks with a .756 OPS.
This year, after being moved out of the leadoff spot, Santana is hitting .224 (50-for-223) with 16 doubles, seven homers and a team-high 34 RBI. He's posted a .721 OPS.
"I think everybody can get better," said reliever Andrew Miller. "There's nobody that's safe. It's not that we should be pointing fingers. There's certainly no group that should be singled out.
"I think it's across the board. We can show up and be a better team than we've been. It's great that we believe that, but at the end of the day, that doesn't matter if we don't go out there and back it up."