Tribe needs Carmona to perform like ace
Published: Wednesday, June 01, 2011
By Jim Ingraham
JIngraham@News-Herald.com
How are they doing this?
How is this possible?
-- How are the Indians in first place in the Central Division, with, at the start of play Tuesday, the best record in the American League, when all of the following is true?
-- Their No. 1 starter, Fausto Carmona, is 3-6 with a 5.31 ERA. In his last three starts, he is 0-3 with a 10.06 ERA.
-- They have played 51 games and Grady Sizemore has started in center field in only 17 of them.
-- No. 3 hitter Shin-Soo Choo is hitting .250.
-- No. 4 hitter Carlos Santana is hitting .214.
-- Their starting third baseman, Jack Hannahan, is hitting .227.
-- All of their left fielders combined are hitting .231 with one home run and 13 RBI.
-- Going into Tuesday's game, in May, Sizemore was hitting .111 (5-for-45), Orlando Cabrera .229, Hannahan .178, Shelley Duncan .190 and Lou Marson .167.
-- Since Travis Hafner went on the disabled list, their record is 8-9 and they have scored three runs or fewer in 10 of those 17 games.
-- In their last seven losses, they have been shut out three times, outscored, 50-7, and Carmona has been the starting pitcher in three of those seven games.
It all comes back to Carmona.
And it should.
To get to the postseason, the Indians need a No. 1 starter, and right now, they don't have one. It's certainly not Carmona, who looks like he's regressed again to his little-boy-lost-in-the-woods years of 2008 and '09.
The problem with Carmona is there is no middle ground. He's either really, really good, or he's Jason Johnson.
In his two really good years, 2007 and 2010, Carmona was a combined 32-22 with a 3.41 ERA. In his two really bad years, 2008 and 2009, he was 13-19 with a 5.89 ERA.
So far this season, it's been Schizo Carmona — his hot and cold career in miniature.
In Carmona's three wins this season, he has a 1.64 ERA and opposing batters have hit .197 against him.
In his six losses he has a 10.19 ERA, and opposing teams have hit .314.
Why is this important? Because — cliché alert — you win with pitching, and the Indians' bullpen has been off-the-charts nasty.
How nasty? This nasty: Going into Tuesday's game, in a combined 81 appearances, the Indians' four top relievers — Rafael Perez, Vinnie Pestano, Tony Sipp and Joe Smith — are 7-2 with a 1.43 ERA.
How do you have the best record in the American League, despite all the negatives listed above? You have a bullpen with ERAs that look like this: Smith 1.88, Pestano 1.42, Perez 1.37 and Sipp 1.19.
The four relievers are the main reason why, from the sixth inning on, the Indians have outscored their opponents, 117-80.
And that doesn't factor in closer Chris Perez, who is 14-for-15 in save situations.
A bullpen like that will keep you in the race. But to win the race, you need a productive starting rotation led by a thoroughbred No. 1 starter — which to this point Carmona is not.
The Indians' winning percentage is more than 200 points lower in games Carmona starts than it is in games started by someone else. The Indians are 5-7 (.417) when Carmona starts, and 26-13 (.667) when anyone else starts.
That's about as ugly a profile as a No. 1 starter can have. The guy who is supposed to be leading the rotation is in reality holding it back.
In other words, so far this season, the Indians are winning in spite of their No. 1 starter, not because of him. That does not bode well for the Tribe's long-term lease on first place. Teams that win division titles almost always have big winners at the top of their rotation.
Carmona was one himself once. In 2007, the Indians won 96 games and the Central Division title with Carmona (19-8) and CC Sabathia (19-7) at the top of their rotation.
Since 2000, the team that has won the American League Central Division title has had at least one pitcher win 15 or more games in 10 of those 11 years. In eight of those 11 years, the division winning team has had a least one starter win 17 or more games.
It's June 1 and Carmona is 3-6. Does he look like a pitcher headed for 17 wins? If not, somebody is going to have to pick up the slack.
Justin Masterson? He didn't lose a game in April, but didn't win one in May. Josh Tomlin? Winning 15 to 17 games is a lot to ask of a pitcher in his first full season in a major-league rotation.
So while it may be hard at this point to envision Carmona winning 15 to 17 games this season, it may be impossible for the Indians to win if he doesn't.