5078
by civ ollilavad
[who sits around counting swings and misses? there are lots of strange jobs out there]
Carlos Carrasco has stuff to dominate rest of season
David Schoenfield, SweetSpot blogger
Major league hitters don't swing and miss as often you may think. When they swing, they put the ball in play 41 percent of the time, hit a foul ball 37 percent of the time and swing and miss just 21.6 percent of the time, or about one of every five swings.
Which helps tells us about the type of stuff that Cleveland Indians pitcher Carlos Carrasco had Wednesday night against the Tampa Bay Rays. Carrasco came within one strike of throwing the Indians' first no-hitter since Len Barker's perfect game way back in 1989, and while it was painful to see Joey Butler line an 0-2 changeup over the leaping Jason Kipnis, Carrasco's performance rates as one of the most impressive of 2015, not just in results but in pure dominance.
The Indians' Carlos Carrasco works from the stretch and uses four pitches that would grade out as plus.
The Rays swung at 67 of Carrasco's 124 pitches -- and missed 30 of them, a swing-and-miss rate of 45 percent, or more than double the MLB average. That's the most swings and misses in a game this year, three more than Max Scherzer generated in his one-hit, 16-strikeout outing June 14 against the Milwaukee Brewers. The last pitcher with 30 swings and misses in a game was Francisco Liriano of the Minnesota Twins in 2012 start against the Oakland A's. And the last one with more? I'm not sure. Our database only goes back to 2009 and nobody else had 30.
Carrasco works from the stretch and has four pitches that would grade out as plus: a 95-mph fastball with sink to it, a changeup with late movement, an excellent slider and a curveball. Obviously, everything was working on this night and watching him blow away the Rays -- 11 of his 13 strikeouts were swinging -- left me wondering: How did he enter the game with more hits than innings and a 4.16 ERA?
Carrasco took a perfect game into the seventh inning, losing that when Butler walked on a 3-2 changeup after fouling off two pitches. Maybe Butler remembered that changeup when Carrasco got two strikes on him in the ninth. Or maybe it was the right pitch -- Butler swung through a changeup on the 0-1 pitch -- and Carrasco just elevated it a little too much, allowing Butler to smack a hard liner into right-center. Remarkably, it was the third game in a row this series that the Cleveland starter was perfect through five innings, following Cody Anderson on Monday and Danny Salazar on Tuesday. If that sounds rare, it is: It's the first time it's happened in the expansion era (since 1961). Maybe that's a bit of indictment of the Tampa Bay lineup, but it also points to the potential of this Indians rotation -- potential that had a lot of people picking the Indians to win the division.
Most swings-and-misses in a game since 2009 (x-no-hitter):
Carlos Carrasco, Cle July 1, 2015 30
Francisco Liriano, Min July 13, 2012 30
x-Tim Lincecum, SF July 13, 2013 29
Anibal Sanchez, Det April 26, 2013 28
CC Sabathia, NYY June 7, 2012 27
A.J. Burnett, Pit Sept. 21, 2013 27
Anibal Sanchez, Det May 29, 2013 27
Max Scherzer, Det Aug. 24, 2013 27
Yu Darvish, Tex April 2, 2013 27
Corey Kluber, Cle Aug. 27, 2014 27
Max Scherzer, Was June 14, 2015 27
Following a long and winding road after the Indians acquired him from the Philadelphia Phillies in 2009 -- a path that included Tommy John surgery after the 2011 season -- Carrasco finally put everything together in the second half last season, when he posted a 1.79 ERA in his final 10 starts after moving into the rotation. Carrasco has always had the stuff; his head and heart have been questioned at times. Maybe that was fair, maybe not. His breakthrough seemed to result in large part to throwing his slider more. After throwing it less than 10 percent of the time in 2011 and 2013, he increased its usage to 22 percent last year, a rate he's maintaining in 2015.
There's still that issue of his hit rate before Wednesday night. It's more normalized now, but Corey Kluber has suffered from the same affliction: A high K rate and also a high hit rate. It's not quite as simple as blaming the Cleveland defense. With two strikes, both are devastating: Kluber has allowed a .130 average (10th lowest among starters) and Carrasco a .133 average (13th). In a hitter's count, however, Carrasco has allowed a .442 average, which ranks 96th out of 98 qualified starters; Kluber ranks 91st with a .411 average. With the quality of stuff those guys have, they shouldn't be bunched with guys like Kyle Kendrick, Jeremy Guthrie and Jeff Locke.
My first thought was perhaps they lay in too many fastballs when behind in the count; Gerrit Cole, another starter with Grade A stuff, also ranks poorly in this area with a .413 average allowed (the MLB average is .339) and he does rely on his 95-plus heater a lot. But Carrasco ranks 65th and Kluber 78th in percentage of fastballs thrown in hitter's counts.
I don't have an explanation. But there is this: The Indians are 36-41 and I'm not quite ready to declare their season over, because we saw what Carrasco can do and we've seen him get on a roll before. Kluber's peripheral stats are still outstanding; he's not going to go 3-9, 3.66 in the second half. Salazar and Trevor Bauer are still striving for consistency but have great stuff as well. Anderson may solidify the fifth slot in the rotation. The Indians had the best rotation in the majors in the second half last year. It could happen again. If it does ... well, you never know.
After all, the Indians are due -- not just for a no-hitter but something even bigger.