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by civ ollilavad
Baseball America chooses its Rookie of the Year
2014 Rookie Of The Year: Abreu Quiets Critics With Dominant Debut
When Jose Abreu came out of Cuba—and even before then—one highly respected scout after another came back with the same report on the slugger who had decimated Serie Nacional pitching.
His bat is too slow. He’s a restricted athlete with a bad body. He can’t lay off hard sliders away. Sure, he has huge raw power, but there are too many holes in his swing. He’d make a great softball player.
“He’s turning 27 years old and has a career full of 85 to 87 mile an hour fastballs,” one international scout said. “He’s not an athlete and he doesn’t have bat speed. You’re asking a 27-year-old non-athlete to go to the big leagues and make an adjustment. Against 97 (mph), this guy has no chance. All of us who know him are all saying the same thing.”
All this for one of the greatest hitters Cuba has ever produced, who regularly posted an on-base percentage north of .500 and slugged over .800 in Serie Nacional, including a ridiculous .453/.597/.986 MVP campaign with 33 homers in 293 plate appearances in the 2010-11 season. Abreu had scouts who believed in him, but despite a record contract for a first-year Cuban player of six years, $68 million, plenty more were skeptical.
“It’s a dead-body guy who can barely play first base and can’t run a lick,” another international scout said. “I didn’t see the bat. He’s a mistake hitter who weighs 250 pounds, is going to hit .240 to .250 and will feast on fourth and fifth starters. He doesn’t have natural bat speed—it’s more of a strength swing. He’s a strong guy and when he centers the ball it goes a long way, but you can tie him up against marginal pitching.”
One year later, Abreu has silenced his critics on his way to winning Baseball America’s Rookie of the Year Award. Abreu, 27, hit .317/.383/.581 with 36 home runs, leading the majors in slugging with a 5.5 Wins Above Replacement (WAR), per Baseball-Reference.com.
So, how did the White Sox get it right while so many other talented scouts whiffed so badly on Abreu?
Yoenis Cespedes was the darling of the international scouting community when he came out. His combination of athleticism, bat speed, power, arm strength, premium position (at the time) and track record both in Cuba and during international competition tantalized scouts. They were right—Cespedes came almost exactly as advertised.
ROOKIE OF THE YEAR
2013 Jose Fernandez, rhp, Marlins
2012 Mike Trout, of, Angels
2011 Jeremy Hellickson, rhp, Rays
2010 Jason Heyward, of, Braves
2009 Andrew McCutchen, of, Pirates
2008 Geovany Soto, c, Cubs
2007 Ryan Braun, 3b, Brewers
2006 Justin Verlander, rhp, Tigers
2005 Huston Street, rhp, Athletics
2004 Khalil Greene, ss, Padres
2003 Brandon Webb, rhp, Diamondbacks
2002 Eric Hinske, 3b, Blue Jays
2001 Albert Pujols, of/3b/1b, Cardinals
2000 Rafael Furcal, ss/2b, Braves
1999 Carlos Beltran, of, Royals
1998 Kerry Wood, rhp, Cub
1997 Nomar Garciaparra, ss, Red Sox
1996 Derek Jeter, ss, Yankees
1995 Hideo Nomo, rhp, Dodgers
1994 Raul Mondesi, of, Dodgers
1993 Mike Piazza, c, Dodgers
1992 Pat Listach, ss, Brewers
1991 Jeff Bagwell, 1b, Astros
1990 Sandy Alomar, c, Indians
1989 Gregg Olson, rhp, Orioles
Teams were too light on Yasiel Puig, but that was understandable. Puig had barely played internationally, was suspended his final season in Cuba, then signed quickly after defecting to Mexico with minimal opportunity for teams to evaluate him.
Abreu’s case is more puzzling. In the three years before Abreu left Cuba, between all the international competitions Abreu participated in, there were more than 200 at-bats outside of Cuba that scouts could have seen in person. There was legitimate uncertainty around what to make of Puig, but Abreu was a maintstay on the Cuban national team. There was no mystery with Abreu, nor was there any long-term projection involved.
For the White Sox, the majority of their scouting on Abreu came from Marco Paddy, the team’s special assistant to the general manager in charge of international operations. The White Sox didn’t have anyone at the 2013 World Baseball Classic, but Paddy had scouted Abreu at four or five international tournaments, including while he ran Toronto’s international scouting until the White Sox hired him after the 2011 season.
Once Abreu left Cuba, the only time the White Sox saw him was at a two-day open showcase at the end of September in the Dominican Republic. Just two White Sox officials were in attendance: Paddy and vice president Ken Williams. They never held a private workout for Abreu. They didn’t need to—they were sold. Back in the front office, the team’s in-house analytics attempted to translate his Cuban performance and project his numbers against major league pitching. The team’s internal forecasts weren’t quite as robust as some of the public projections, but they suggested star upside.
The White Sox had access to the same information as every other team. They may have even had less than other clubs, since they weren’t operating off any video of Serie Nacional games. Yet they came away with a vastly different projection on Abreu compared to most of their competitors, and they didn’t realize at the time how many in the industry thought they were out of their minds.
“With every guy you sign, you’re always going to have a bit of concern,” Paddy said. “Nobody can say when you sign a guy, you don’t have any concerns. In the case of Jose, the one thing we liked was his bat stayed through the zone a long time. You can sit there, look at different stuff, but this guy’s bat stays in the zone. If it stays in the zone, you have a chance to hit the ball because that’s where the ball is.”
The White Sox didn’t see any issues with Abreu’s bat speed. At Abreu’s showcase, they saw him face pitchers throwing in the low-90s, and watched the first fastball he saw land over the right-center field fence. Paddy was already a believer and Williams liked what he had seen on video of international tournaments. That showcase just helped solidify their enthusiasm.
“The plus-plus power was what got him the most notoriety, but we viewed him as a more complete hitter than that,” White Sox general manager Rick Hahn said. “It wasn’t just an all-or-nothing, big swing home run guy, it was someone who had the ability to adjust and be a professional hitter.”
For all the concerns about Abreu’s ability to get beat by good velocity, he turned out to be one of the best fastball hitters in the majors. Against pitches of 95 mph or better, Abreu hit .325, according to Baseballsavant.com. By pitch type linear weights at FanGraphs, among qualified hitters, Abreu had the best results against fastballs of anyone in 2014.
“It’s a pretty simple swing,” Paddy said. “There was no interruption, no leg lift or anything, just a small lower half load with his front knee and then the bat is in position to hit right away. There weren’t any hitches. He just stood there, watched the ball, did his lower half load and his hands came right to the ball. He lets the ball travel as far as he could. I think sometimes you can be deceived by that. “With his lower half load, there wasn’t any leg lift kick, he didn’t dive into the ball—his lower half was pretty stiff already. He just did a little hip load, turned his knee in and his hands came through.
“It was a pretty simple approach. Everything was simple about it. He allowed the ball to travel quite a bit. Sometimes you commit too soon, but he’d just stand there and let the ball travel and let his hands come through. In those two days (at his open showcase), guys were throwing 93-94 mph, and it didn’t faze him at all.”
The White Sox weren’t completely on an island in their evaluation. But for a free agent in the prime of his career with no draft pick compensation attached, Abreu was a steal.
“In today’s market, paying slightly over $11 million in the free agent market roughly translates to about the league average player in terms of market value,” Hahn said. “For him to exceed that, we had a number of indicators that that was going to be at least what we were dealing with, and a decent likelihood that he was going to be able to exceed it.”
And that’s exactly it—even teams highest on Abreu weren’t willing to pay him more than a steady, average big leaguer. Teams had already seen the success of Cespedes and Puig. Owners weren’t afraid to pay premium dollars for foreign professionals who have yet to establish major league track records, with Daisuke Matsuzaka and Yu Darvish cashing in from Japan. Abreu signed in the same offseason as Masahiro Tanaka, who signed for seven years, $155 million, not including the $20 million posting fee the Yankees paid the Rakuten Eagles. Fellow 2014 free agents Carlos Beltran and Mike Napoli, both in their 30s, got paid more per year than Abreu.
“He’s an extremely intelligent hitter who made adjustments from at-bat to at-bat, something that’s only going to help him going forward now that he knows the league, knows how pitchers are going to try to get him out,” Hahn said. “He burst on the scene in the big way initially, then he had a minor slump there where pitchers started pitching him a little different, moving away from fastballs in to try to get him to expand out of the zone on breaking pitches away. Jose in turn adjusted to that and again became quite dangerous.
“Given not only his approach to hitting but his game overall, his level of preparation involved, how seriously he takes it, now that he knows the league, the potential is there for him to exceed his extraordinarily impressive debut.”
With Cespedes, the tools were electric. It’s easy to fall in love with a dynamic, high-energy athlete who has lightning bat speed, huge raw power, a rocket arm and does so many things that are just fun to watch.
Abreu was more cerebral. The power show he puts on in batting practice is eye-catching, although many scouts didn’t think he would be able to get to his power against major league pitching.
But unlike Cespedes, there isn’t much flashiness with Abreu. He’s not going to grace the cover of any fitness magazines or be confused for a track-and-field athlete. He doesn’t whip the bat through the zone with the ferocity of Bryce Harper or Giancarlo Stanton, but his timing at the plate is always on point, and he’s smart enough to make adjustments against better pitching.
If hitting a baseball is one of the hardest things to do in sports, determining who can hit major league pitching is still one of the hardest things to do in scouting.