Roberto Perez (Photo: Brittany Chay)
Seven Up: Indians prospects who have improved their stock
By Tony Lastoria
June 24, 2014
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In year’s past I have often done a “Three Up, Three Down” piece focusing in on some of the players that are really improving or hurting their prospect values, but I have decided to expand this into two pieces this week as there are quite a few who have taken a notable jump up or down at this point in the season.
Today I will focus on the positive and look at the seven players who have really raised their stock not just with their performance but more importantly their development this season. During my conversations with area scouts talking about Indians 2014 draft picks I have also been in contact with several scouts who focus solely on the minor leagues and the same few guys kept coming up as names that have jumped onto the map or more firmly on it.
Here are the seven players along with some insight I have gathered in talking to opposing scouts or Indians personnel over the course of the season:
(Note, the players are listed alphabetically in order not to infer any kind of prospect order between the players.)
Robbie Aviles (RHP, Lake County): Aviles came into the season as the IBI’s #62 ranked prospect, but based on his body or work this season he is surely to move up significantly in the rankings for next season provided he remains healthy and he maintains what he has done to date both from a performance perspective and from a stuff and mechanics perspective. Aviles is no stranger to a high ranking as he was a mid-30s ranked prospect by IBI back in 2011 and had a high draft pedigree coming into the organization. After a few years of struggles, the Indians really honed in on his mechanics this spring to get him away from throwing across his body and a better direction with his arm and hips toward the plate and that subtle adjustment has done wonders for him. In 13 appearances (8 starts) he is 1-1 with a 2.16 ERA, and in 66.2 innings he has allowed 55 hits, 2 homers, 8 walks and has 41 strikeouts. His ability to get groundballs (1.61 GO/AO), keep the ball in the ballpark, limit baserunners and pound the zone with low 90s sinkers with movement really makes him interesting as a possible late bloomer. He suffered a temporary setback with an injury to his shoulder a little over 10 days ago, but the belief is it is not serious and he will be fine.
Joseph Colon (RHP, Akron): Colon came into the season as the IBI’s #33 ranked prospect, a ranking that some may consider to be too high for someone to be considered on the “up”. However, the way he is pitching he is flirting with a potential top 10 ranking for next season and at this point would no doubt at least be in the mid-teens. In 15 starts he is 7-4 with a 2.84 ERA, and in 88.2 innings has allowed 79 hits, 4 homers, 29 walks and has 58 strikeouts. Going into the season he needed to prove he could be durable and so far he has done that as he has pitched deep into almost every game and has yet to miss any time. The byproduct of the fortunate health has been his ability to get out there and get that much needed mound experience he has lacked as he is still a little rough around the edges as a conversion guy. His strikeout rate is low (5.9 K/9) but that is a byproduct of his pitch to contact mentality and the way he fills the zone with low-to-mid 90s sinkers. When he reaches back he can get it up to 96-97 MPH, but his goal is to work quick and go deep into games and he is doing that. His curveball and changeup are the key to his arsenal and both have shown some improvement this season, though both have a ways to go.
Erik Gonzalez (SS, Carolina): Gonzalez came into the season as the IBI’s #40 ranked prospect, a ranking I was a little reluctant on as I just didn’t feel confident putting him that high even though he was just added to the 40-man roster in the offseason and had a good season in 2013. I was not sure how much to believe in his season last year after all of the struggles in 2011 and 2012, but he has made a believer out of me this season. First off, he can definitely play shortstop as his lateral range is very good for a player with his tall, lanky build and he can definitely throw the ball and with accuracy. He’s an average to above average defensive shortstop at the Major League level right now. On top of that he is extremely versatile and able to play almost anywhere on the diamond except catcher, and that versatility is something the Indians will surely take advantage of down the road in the upper levels of the system and potentially as a callup to the big leagues. The bat has not had the thunder this season as it did last season, though the parks are not as favorable to hitters in the Carolina League as they are in the Midwest League so a slight drop in his power numbers were expected. But some of that is a result of his focus to improve on making more consistent contact, being more patient and having a little more discipline at the plate as his batting average, walk rate and strikeout rates have all shown some improvement. This is a guy to keep tabs on as there is still the potential for more with him and he is a guy I could see the Indians throwing around in trade discussions as opposing scouts like him a lot.
Paul Hendrix (Infielder, Lake County): Hendrix was not even ranked in the IBI Top 100 going into the season, so his showing to date will surely place him in it next season no matter what he does from here on out. At this point his versatility and offensive showing has him firmly somewhere in the bottom half of next year’s Top 100 provided he finishes the season strong. After a big month of May when he hit .386 with 5 HR, 16 RBI and 1.095 OPS in 27 games, he has really cooled off in June hitting .213 with 0 HR, 2 RBI and .556 OPS in 16 games. Even still, his overall numbers are good as he is hitting .304 with 6 HR, 22 RBI and .872 OPS in 58 games. He is prone to high strikeout totals so that is an area of his game he is still working through, but he is walking at a 12.4% clip which is very good and he has pop in his bat and some versatility. Developing his pitch recognition skills and his overall discipline are the key to his success because he is pretty much maxed out defensively and with his power as he probably is what he is there.
Ryan Merritt (LHP, Carolina): Merritt came into the season as the IBI’s #45 ranked prospect. So far he has answered questions surrounding durability concerns because of his small size and whether or not his stuff would translate as he moved up into the more advanced levels of the minors. In 13 starts he is 7-2 with a 1.61 ERA, and in 84.0 innings has allowed 61 hits, 2 homers, 17 walks and has 64 strikeouts. While his stuff is not overwhelming, he has three pitches that he commands well and are all at least average offerings. What makes him so effective is the deception he creates, some late life to his fastball, excellent command and some well above average pitchability. The Indians typically like to have their pitching prospects get a significant amount of time at the High-A level since it is such an important level in their development, but he’s been so good that he may be speeding up the Indians timeline and forcing a promotion to Double-A Akron earlier than expected. At this point, if he keeps pitching like he has he should be up in Akron by late July or early August so he can get 5-7 starts there and get comfortable with his destination to begin next season.
Jordan Milbrath (RHP, Lake County): Milbrath came into the season as the IBI’s #53 ranked prospect. That was a high ranking to some at the outset considering he was not yet on the map, but after his impressive showing in Instructional League it was well deserved. He is a big time worker and very coachable, and that hard work and aptitude has paid off in a big way early in his career with a very good showing so far this season. In 14 appearances (11 starts) he is 2-8 with a 3.39 ERA, and in 66.1 innings has allowed 54 hits, 2 homers, 31 walks and has 44 strikeouts. After a very hot start he had a recent stretch of six starts where he really struggled, but the All Star break appears to have done him some good to get him refocused, relaxed and most importantly refreshed as he was strong his last time out. He is still somewhat raw to pitching so as he gets more mound experience the consistency with his performance could come. But right now from a physical standpoint with his size, his delivery and some very intriguing stuff with a fastball that reaches the mid-90s and a promising curveball, he is a guy to be very excited about and has a good chance to be in the Top 30 next season. Of course, how he continues to develop and perform these last four and a half months up through the end of Instructional League in early October will go a long way at determining that.
Robert Perez (Catcher, Columbus): Perez came into the season as the IBI’s #71 ranked prospect. It is important to note that proximity to the Major Leagues does not factor into these rankings, so while Perez is pretty well developed and already in Triple-A it typically does not have much bearing on where a prospect is ranked. The rankings are based on impact potential at the Major League level if/when the player gets there. He has long been considered an above average defensive catcher and could no doubt handle a staff, play defense and control the running game at the big league level. The bat on the other hand is something that has always held him back. He has often shown a good, patient approach with a willingness to work counts and draw walks, but it has often times been to the point where he was too passive in his at bats and it hurt the overall quality of the actual swings he did take. He also dealt with Bell’s palsy last season which no doubt had some effect on his performance at the plate when his plate discipline crumbled. This season he is hitting .314 with 7 HR, 32 RBI and .956 OPS in 43 games, a year that is well above his career norm. You have to take the sudden spike in his performance with a grain of salt as he is not a .300 hitter, but the approach is back, his at bats have really been strong and he is making more consistent, hard contact – which has led to the spike in his batting average and power. He's a below average hitter in the big leagues, but with some ocassional pop and a good approach you can get by with a backup catcher of that caliber who provides good defense. He’s still a nice Major League backup catcher in the making, and he has solidified himself as a catcher that should be on the Indians 40-man roster for years to come as a third catcher or even on the 25-man roster as the main backup.
Follow Tony and the Indians Baseball Insider on Twitter @TonyIBI. Also, his new book the 2014 Cleveland Indians Baseball Insider which profiles the Indians' Top 100 Prospects and more is available for sale.