Re: Minor Matters

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16 Felix Sterling. Last year's out of nowhere Latin teenager

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#16 Felix Sterling
Posted by Tony at 12:04 AM
Felix Sterling – Right-handed Pitcher
Born: 03/15/1993 – Height: 6’3” – Weight: 200 – Bats: Right – Throws: Right

(Photo: Felix Sterling)
History: The Indians signed Sterling as an undrafted free agent out of the Dominican Republic in the spring of 2010. He finished 8th in the rookie level Arizona Summer League in ERA (3.16), 10th in strikeouts (57), and 8th in WHIP (1.17).

Strengths: Sterling is a big, strong, physically imposing pitcher whose fastball already sits at 90-94 MPH and flashes two good secondary pitches in a slurvy breaking ball and changeup. As with any young pitcher he is working on improving his command and control, but has shown a good feel for pitching and has the arsenal to remain a starting pitcher as he moves up the minor league ladder. Like most Latin kids he came into the organization as a thrower rather than a pitcher, but unlike most Latin pitchers he had some secondary pitches in place. He seemingly got better and stronger as the season wore on last year, and showed surprisingly good command in his pro debut with an ability to miss bats. With his size and pitches he has the chance to be a middle-of-the-rotation workhorse down the road.

Opportunities: Sterling is still working on the command and consistency of all of his pitches. He is also learning how to effectively use his secondary pitches as he often misses big with them, something he can get away with in the lower levels of the minors but won't as he moves up. Due to his size he lumbers around the field a little bit, so will need to develop a stronger awareness to situations in order to combat some of his deficiencies with fielding his position.

Outlook: While Sterling is very rough around the edges and will certainly be a project for the Indians the next few years, he performed well at a very young age in the Arizona Summer League and showed a ton of raw ability. He really made a lot of strides during his time out in Arizona and opened up a ton of eyes inside and outside of the organization, and is definitely a guy to keep an eye on going forward as he has big time helium potential as a prospect. Even though he will turn 18 years old in March, he will likely open the season in the starting rotation at Low-A Lake County, a sure sign as to the kind of potential and ability the organization thinks he has.

Year	Age	Team	Lvl	W	L	ERA	G	GS	IP	H	ER	HR	BB	SO	AVG	BB/9	K/9	WHIP
2010	17	AZL   R	2	3	3.16	12	11	51.1	40	18	2	20	57	.222	3.5	10.0	1.17
		

Re: Minor Matters

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BA which very highly rates players who've never played professionally lists Kyle Blair at No. 11. Tony is a bit more conservative

#14 Kyle Blair
Posted by Tony at 12:01 AM
Kyle Blair – Right-handed Pitcher
Born: 08/27/1988 – Height: 6’3” – Weight: 230 – Bats: Right – Throws: Right

(Photo: Ken Carr)
History: The Indians selected Blair in the 4th round of the 2010 Draft out of the University of San Diego. As a college junior the Indians were able to pry him away from college for a well overslot bonus of $580,000. The bonus was much less than what he was offered by the Los Angeles Dodgers when they originally drafted him out of high school in the 5th round of the 2007 Draft.

Strengths: Blair has an average two-seam fastball that sits at 90-92 MPH, but his above average secondary offerings in his curveball and changeup make him a legitimate starting pitching prospect. His plus slider is his best pitch and he has the confidence to throw it in any count. The slider has good late, tight break and can be unhittable at times and projects as a potential swing-and-miss pitch in the big leagues. His changeup is still developing and has plus potential. He also throws an overhand curveball which some scouts believe at times is better than his slider, and he shows good command with it to both sides of the plate.

The Indians have scouted Blair extensively since high school, so they have a very good idea of what kind of pitcher he is. He is a big, durable, aggressive pitcher that can be a rotation workhorse who eats innings. He is a very tough, mature pitcher that won't back down and is not afraid to challenge hitters by pitching inside. He shows a good feel to pitch and changes speeds well with an ability to get good downward action on all of his pitches. His arm action is short which helps create deception in his delivery.

Opportunities: The fastball is the key for Blair to remain a starter. While his fastball command continues to improve, he still lacks good command and location of the pitch which leads to a lot of walks. He has had some nagging injuries in college - most notably biceps tendonitis his sophomore season which resulted in a lot of missed time - which have hurt the development of his fastball. Because of his inconsistent fastball he often relies heavily on his secondary offerings and overuses his slider not only to finish off batters, but early in counts as well when pitchers typically setup batters with their fastball. If his fastball command and confidence improves, his slider should become an even more effective pitch. In addition to the fastball command, due to his size and body he needs to stay on top of his conditioning in order to keep extra weight off. He is also an emotional pitcher and can get caught up in the moment, so he needs to learn to control his emotions better on the mound.

Outlook: There is very little projection involved with Blair because what you see is pretty much what you get. He has little room for growth since he is very advanced coming out of college, but along with his low ceiling comes a high floor as he should move swiftly through the Indians system and is expected to at least make the big leagues as a reliever. He may ultimately just end up as a reliever in the big leagues, but if his changeup comes along and he improves his fastball command it could go a long way at him fulfilling his projection as an innings eating third or fourth starter in the major leagues. He will likely open the 2011 season in the High-A Kinston starting rotation.

Re: Minor Matters

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CIV: I found the source. Tony Lastoria's site:
http://www.indiansprospectinsider.com/2 ... sting.html

Wednesday, March 2, 2011
2011 Fan Prospect Listing
Posted by Tony at 11:22 AM
As we continue on with the 2011 IPI Top 50 Indians Prospect countdown, here is something a little different. This is a Top 31 listing of the Indians prospects courtesy of the fans on this site where 20 die-hard message board posters put together their Top 30 and they were all averaged together to come up with one "gallery" listing.

Thanks to devoted site reader Mike B. - AKA the MadThinker on the boards - for putting this listing together.

Re: Minor Matters

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No one rates Hagadone lower than Tony does:

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#13 Nick Hagadone
Posted by Tony at 12:01 AM
Nick Hagadone - Left-handed Pitcher
Born: 01/01/1986 – Height: 6’5” – Weight: 230 – Bats: Left – Throws: Left

(Photo: Ken Carr)
History: Hagadone was selected by the Boston Red Sox in the 1st round of the 2007 Draft out of the University of Washington. He signed with the Red Sox for $575,000. The Indians acquired him as part of a three player package they received from the Red Sox in the Victor Martinez trade. He tore the UCL ligament in his left elbow in a game on April 16, 2008 and ended up having Tommy John surgery on June 10, 2008.

Strengths: Hagadone is a very big, physical left-handed pitcher who features a plus-plus fastball that sits at 95-97 MPH and has topped out at 99 MPH in the past. There are some who believe that as he gets further away from Tommy John surgery, gets stronger, and works out his mechanical issues that he has the arm strength where he could someday hit 100 MPH. He uses his height to his advantage well and gets his fastball on a nice downward plane with some good natural sink to it. He shows solid average command of his fastball and has no fear of putting it on the plate. He gets a good amount of groundballs and really limits home runs because hitters have a hard time getting under his fastball to lift the ball against him. He throws two secondary offerings, a slider and changeup, with the slider being the better offering of the two. His plus slider has lots of depth and tilt and is an out pitch that he just dominates left-handers with. His changeup is a below average offering that is a work in progress and has the potential to be an average offering. While it has shown improvement and at times gets nice downward movement, it is an inconsistent pitch.

Most importantly, Hagadone’s surgically repaired elbow is feeling great as he is 100% healthy and has not had any setbacks with the elbow and his velocity returned last year as he was up to 97-98 MPH several times. His walk rate will always be high, but he is also always going to be a high strikeout guy because he has natural stuff and is not going to give up very many hits. He sets the benchmark very high when it comes to maturity, work ethic, discipline, intelligence, and the passion to play the game of baseball. When he is on the mound he oozes confidence and is always sure of himself. Even last season through all of his struggles he never lost faith in himself and remained extremely positive and confident he can work through the issues he was having. He has a presence about him on the mound where he is very intimidating to opposing hitters by throwing his pitches with conviction and without fear. He is an intense competitor who is tenacious and goes right after hitters, and because of all these intangibles and his stuff he projects as a dominant late innings reliever or possible top shelf closer.

When Hagadone was acquired from the Red Sox in July of 2009 he was in the middle of a rehab program from Tommy John surgery. He remained on a restricted 50 pitch count or three inning limit (whichever came first) for every outing for the remainder of that season. Last year he opened the season on a 60-65 pitch count before being allowed to throw 80-85 pitches in mid-May in order to control his workload as the Indians did not want to jump his innings total too much from 2009 to last year. While he was hard to hit (.226 BAA) and averaged more than a strikeout an inning (9.4 K/9) last year, he had a sub par season because he gave up way too many walks (6.6 K/9).

Hagadone’s command problems plagued him all year, so to help counteract the problem the Indians completed a pre-planned move to the bullpen with about six weeks left in the season. After moving to the bullpen, he finished the year going 1-1 with a 3.68 ERA and .229 BAA in 12 relief appearances (22.0 IP, 19 H, 16 BB, 18 K). The walks were still there, but the quality of his stuff improved. The move to the bullpen was something the Indians told him about back before the season started. Prior to turning pro he was a college reliever who only made seven starts in 55 career college games, but like most priority relief prospects he initially pitched out of the starting rotation to start his pro career in order to help him develop a routine, work on his pitches, expose him to as many game situations as possible, and flipping a lineup two to three times help teach him to pitch rather than throw.

The Indians feel Hagadone is best suited in the bullpen because of his command issues, lack of a quality third pitch, and because he is such a highly intense competitor. By having him pitch in short stints they feel it will better maintain his focus letting him air it all out over two innings versus the mindset as a starter having to go five innings and pitching deep into games. As a starter his consistency with repeating his delivery for five to six innings and 80-90 pitches is a constant battle and results in a lot of effort in his delivery where as a reliever the need to consistently repeat his delivery is less important. His changeup had been inconsistent and a work in progress, but in the bullpen that pitch can be shelved to where he can almost exclusively rely on his fastball-slider combination to get hitters out. He also has had inconsistent command, which is typically easier to cover up in the bullpen over one or two innings rather than as a starter going five to seven innings. His stuff is still not all the way back to where it was prior to Tommy John surgery in June of 2008, and the command is usually the last thing to come. His stuff and command may start to play up in the bullpen, and not having to worry about flipping a lineup two to three times a game he can show everything and go after hitters more aggressively. The Indians have not ruled him out as a starter in the future and he likely will pitch in a piggyback role again this year, but his major league future is almost certainly in the bullpen.

Opportunities: Developing Hagadone’s secondary pitches and command is the main focus right now. He showed improved confidence in both his slider and changeup last year, but both still need a lot of work. The Indians have challenged him to throw his slider for strikes early in the count and to refine and tighten up his slider, and they have challenged him to get a better feel for his changeup and to use it more to right-handed hitters. His command was consistent all last season and he never really got into a rhythm. He was leaving his fastball up in the zone a lot, and the command of his offspeed pitches was erratic. To combat his command issues he needs to work on staying in a good rhythm with his delivery and better repeat it. They have challenged him to work on pounding the strike zone more consistently with strikes and eliminating the big misses. The Indians are also working to control his emotions on the mound because he is so intense and competitive that at times he is his own worst enemy as he has a tendency to get too amped up and it works against him. He needs to get better at reading swings and just needs mound time to gain more experience. He had to endure a lot of high pitch and high stress outings in almost every appearance last season, which was likely the byproduct of still finding his way back to complete health. He did go on the disabled list with some mild shoulder soreness in the summer, but returned after a short amount of time away and was fine the rest of the season.

Outlook: At some point or another in a pro career, an athlete will face adversity with a season that is not up to their standard. Most of the greats have had that one clunker of a season, just ask Cliff Lee if he remembers 2007. With that in mind, a clean slate this year may be just what the doctor ordered for Hagadone as he has a chance to start anew and right the ship. The kid gloves should be off this year as the Indians should not worry too much about maintaining his health as much as they did last year, so he has a chance to make a ton of strides this year with his command and stuff. At the moment, the Indians lack any real left-handed relief pitching depth in the upper levels of their farm system, so they are hoping he can fill that void this year and become a legit big league reliever and cornerstone to their bullpen for many years. He should open the 2011 season with a return trip to Double-A Akron, but should spend a considerable amount of time at Triple-A Columbus and may be called up to Cleveland for his big league debut in September when rosters expand.

Year	Age	Team	Lvl	W	L	ERA	G	GS	IP	H	ER	HR	BB	SO	AVG	BB/9	K/9	WHIP
2007	21	Lowell	A-	0	1	1.85	10	10	24.1	14	5	1	8	33	.163	3.0	12.2	0.90
2008	22	Greenville	A	1	1	0.00	3	3	10.0	5	0	0	6	12	.135	5.4	10.8	1.10
2009	23	Greenville	A	0	2	2.52	10	10	25.0	13	7	0	14	32	.149	5.0	11.5	1.08
2009	23	Lake County	A	0	1	2.45	5	5	14.2	8	4	0	5	21	.163	3.1	12.9	0.89
2009	23	Kinston	A+	0	0	5.06	2	2	5.1	5	3	0	5	6	.250	8.4	10.1	1.88
2010	24	Kinston	A+	1	3	2.39	10	10	37.2	28	10	2	29	45	.206	6.9	10.8	1.51
2010	24	Akron	AA	2	2	4.50	19	7	48.0	44	24	5	34	44	.242	6.4	8.2	1.63

Re: Minor Matters

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Hagadone's WHIP since he migrated from the Red Sox have been consistently terrible. Was excellent before we got our hands on him.

He;s 25 now and still at AA. This is not a fast-developing star. Although as Tony says "He sets the benchmark very high when it comes to maturity, work ethic, discipline, intelligence, and the passion to play the game of baseball. When he is on the mound he oozes confidence"

Re: Minor Matters

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My breakout success story of 2010, Bryce Stowell is Tony's No. 12. BA, which doesn't know as much as Tony and me, lists him at No. 18, and comments:

Moved to the bullpen in 2010 he saw his velocity skyrocket adn operated in the mid 90s and touching 98 with solid life. He used his suddenly overpowering fastball to go from high A to AAA tailing off in Columbus and coming down with an elbow strain that didn't require surgery. Stowell also throws a hard slider that lacks consistencey; he can mix in a changeup on occassion. He also missed the first six weeks of 2009 with biceps tendinits so he staill has to prove he can stay healthy for a full season. He also must learn to command his fastball better.

#12 Bryce Stowell
Posted by Tony at 12:01 AM
Bryce Stowell – Right-handed Pitcher
Born: 09/23/1986 – Height: 6’2” – Weight: 205 – Bats: Right – Throws: Right

(Photo: Ken Carr)
History: Stowell was the Indians 22nd round pick in the 2008 Draft out of UC-Irvine. He was draft eligible because he was a redshirt sophomore and 21 years old, so he had the option of returning to college for another year or two, but the Indians pried him out of college with a $725,000 bonus. He pitched in the Cape Cod League in the summer of 2008 before signing with the Indians and in 9 games (6 starts) he went 3-1 with a 2.36 ERA (45.2 IP, 32 H, 4 HR, 9 BB, 58 K).

Strengths: Stowell throws a fastball that sits at 94-96 MPH and has touched 100 MPH, and he complements it with a slider and circle changeup. His fastball is a swing and miss pitch at the big league level that has some built in deception and saw some big gains in velocity last year. His bread and butter secondary offering is a slider which he has made good strides in developing since he was drafted and is considered a major league swing and miss pitch he can put hitters away with. His fastball and slider combination are weapons which lead to lots of strikeouts as he is very aggressive with both pitches and goes after hitters and does not run away from contact. His changeup is still developing and is a pitch he showed a lot more confidence in last year. It gives a different look to hitters and adds another wrinkle to his power arsenal to keep hitters off balance and guessing a little more.

Stowell struggled with his health and mechanics in 2009 which affected his performance that year. His delivery was often rushed, and he ended up dragging his arm which resulted in him missing high with his fastball. He made a lot of strides at the end of 2009 and in spring training last year with better solidifying his arm slot, repeating his delivery, and making in-game adjustments, which was a big reason for his surge in development and performance last year. The biggest area of improvement was in his velocity as he jumped from sitting at 91-93 MPH and touching 95 MPH in 2009 to sitting at 94-96 MPH and touching 100 MPH last year. The velocity spike was the result of all the hard work at the end of 2009 and in spring training last year, and was a huge key to his success last season with throwing strikes more consistently and piling up the strikeouts.

The move to the bullpen full time also helped Stowell tremendously last year as he really took off in the role. From the day the Indians drafted him they viewed him as an impact caliber big league bullpen arm, but like they do with a lot of their high profile relief pitching prospects they had him pitch in the starting rotation early on to help facilitate the development of his pitches and routine as well as expose him to as many game situations as possible. He is a fierce competitor with excellent leadership abilities and is tough on right-handers, which combined with his stuff the Indians feel he has a chance to be a late-inning reliever who can strike a lot of guys out and get outs on his own.

Opportunities: Stowell has now been bothered with arm issues in both of his pro seasons. He had bicep tendonitis in spring training in 2009 which set him back and forced him to open that year in extended spring training, and then last year he left his last appearance on August 21st with some discomfort in his right elbow that was later diagnosed as a mild right elbow strain, and the injury prematurely ended his season. While he is reportedly recovering well from the elbow scare, it remains to be seen just how healthy he is until he gets out there this spring. The arm issues in each of the last two seasons are a concern to monitor going forward.

Aside from his health, Stowell’s biggest area of struggle has been the walks and is something that showed itself a lot more after joining Triple-A Columbus late last season. Since he is a power pitcher a higher walk rate is expected and teams can live with it, but he needs to show more command of all three of his pitches. Refining his command should be the primary focus for him this season. He also needs to finish off the development of his slider and changeup. He did not use them a lot last year at High-A Kinston and Double-A Akron because he really only had to pitch with his fastball, but after joining Columbus he began to see he needs to develop his secondary pitches in order to consistently get out hitters at the higher levels. To improve his command and secondary offerings he needs to continue to refine his delivery and arm slot.

Outlook: Coming off a poor 2009 season where he struggled with health and inconsistency, Stowell really bounced back well last year with an incredible showing across the three highest levels in the minors. He had a dominating year in every facet of scouting last season, be it objectively through any measureable traditional or sabermetric stat or subjectively by what was seen on the field. He is a legitimate late inning major league bullpen prospect and has a good shot to get his chance in Cleveland at some point his coming season. He is Rule 5 eligible at the end of the season and will have to be rostered in the offseason anyway, so there will be no roster reasons to keep him off the roster this year unless the Indians want to manage his service time. The one thing really working against him is all the bullpen depth above him which may result in the Indians leaving him in Triple-A all year to finish him off and be ready for an opportunity in 2012. He is not expected to have any lingering effects from the elbow injury last August and should be 100% for the start of spring training, and will open the 2011 season in the Columbus bullpen.

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Year	Age	Team	Lvl	W	L	ERA	G	SV	IP	H	ER	HR	BB	SO	AVG	BB/9	K/9	WHIP
2009	22	Lake County	A	0	0	1.00	3	0	9.0	4	1	1	3	15	.133	3.0	15.0	0.78
2009	22	Kinston	A+	4	6	5.31	19	0	61.0	64	36	6	34	62	.270	5.0	9.1	1.61
2010	23	Kinston	A+	1	0	1.42	11	0	25.1	16	4	2	8	41	.186	2.8	14.6	0.95
2010	23	Akron	AA	1	0	0.00	14	7	22.1	15	0	0	11	33	.192	4.4	13.3	1.16
2010	23	Columbus	AAA	1	1	5.49	17	0	19.2	11	12	2	17	28	.167	7.8	12.8	1.42

Re: Minor Matters

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T.J. House is another of my favorites. He's been reliable and he's stayed healthy. He's been one of the youngest starters in his league for two seasons. It is time for him to put up some really healthy numbers, however. BA has him at #15.

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#11 T.J. House
Posted by Tony at 12:01 AM
T.J. House – Left-handed Pitcher
Born: 09/29/1989 – Height: 6’2” – Weight: 215 – Bats: Right – Throws: Left

(Photo: Tony Lastoria)
History: House was selected by the Indians in the 16th round of the 2008 Draft out of Picayune High School (MS). He was projected to go in the fop five rounds of the draft, but a commitment to Tulane University and a $1.5 million bonus demand scared teams away. The Indians took a flier on him, and when the coach at Tulane that recruited him stepped down and took another job, he decided to sign with the Indians for $750,000. He pitched out of the bullpen in qualifier action for Team USA in the summer of 2007, pitching only three innings while posting six strikeouts and a .214 opponent batting average. In high school, he stayed in great shape during the offseason by participating on the swim team and helped them win a state championship in 2006. Last year he finished 6th in the Carolina League in losses (10), 8th in ERA (3.91), 3rd in games started (26), 5th in innings pitched (135.2), and 7th in strikeouts (106).

Strengths: House is a physically, mentally advanced left hander that has a three pitch mix of a fastball, slider, and changeup. His heavy fastball is a plus pitch that sits at 91-94 MPH and has touched 95 MPH, and has good tailing action. He did not show any velocity gains last season, but he has good arm strength where as he matures he is expected to see an uptick in his average velocity. His excellent slider is another plus pitch that sits in the mid 80s and is a nasty weapon, and shows good depth and late break. His 80-81 MPH changeup has plus potential and has rapidly developed into a quality pitch for him. He gets good separation with his changeup from his fastball and made big strides with his confidence in throwing it last season.

House also started working on a curveball midseason in order to give him another weapon to throw in the strike zone that has some depth to it and also complement his changeup so it is not overused. It is something to add to his arsenal to give hitters a different view with a slower speed and a little bit more break and a downward plane. He did not throw it in a game, and instead worked on it in bullpen sessions to make sure he was getting good rotation on it before unveiling it in a real game setting, which may happen sometime this season. He also made some big strides with his conditioning and endurance last year. In his first season at Low-A Lake County in 2009 he hit a plateau and struggled toward the end of the season as he got really tired and fatigued. Last year his body and arm did not wear down and he finished much stronger thanks to a commitment in the offseason to work on his conditioning to better prepare himself to handle the physical toll of starting 26-27 games and pitching 150 innings over a full season. He also did a lot of work on his shoulder to keep him from falling off in the second half.

Even though House has only made steady progress to date, he has all the tools to develop rapidly going forward. He has a smooth delivery and mixes up his speeds and pitches well and has good command of the zone at an early age. Even on nights when he just does not have it, he shows an ability to battle and maintain his composure to still take his team deep into a game. He has a maturity level that is off the charts and is a very skilled pitcher with a high baseball IQ who pitches beyond his years. He has a drive to succeed as even when he is not pitching he is always tuned into the game watching hitters to pick up weaknesses and also watching other pitchers to pick up something new. He is very coachable and very open to ideas for improvement. He is often compared to major league left-handers Scott Kazmir and Mike Hampton because of his athleticism, strong build, competitiveness, and power to his stuff.

Opportunities: Most of House’s issues last year stemmed from him not finishing his pitches. Sometimes he does not open his hips enough so he can get a good drive because he cuts across his body by stopping short with his front foot and not exploding through the zone. When a pitcher does not finish his pitches they lose that leg drive and the ball does not jump out of their hand like it should. As a result, a lot of his pitches were staying up and on the same plane, his velocity was down a little, his fastball was flat, and his breaking ball was not as sharp as it normally would be. High-A Kinston pitching coach Tony Arnold worked with him over the course of the season to make sure he stays out front and drive through the zone, and he will need to continue to be cognizant of this going forward. He also needs to be more consistent pitch to pitch and for his entire outing. He has a tendency to get a little flat, and when that happens hitters start to put the ball in the air, so the Indians have challenged him to better repeat his delivery, stay focused pitch to pitch, and keep the ball down in the strike zone.

House’s fastball command and velocity were off some last year, which resulted in some inconsistency handling the strike zone and more walks, so he needs to continue to work on the command and location of all of his pitches and also better establish the lower part of the plate. His slider and changeup need more consistency, and the addition of his curveball would be a big boost to his stuff if he can develop it. He needs to better control a running game and maintain his focus when runners are on base.

Outlook: House has made slow and steady progress in his first two-plus years in the organization, and had an unspectacular, but solid season last year. His command was inconsistent all season, but even though he often labored through many of his innings and starts he found a way to keep his team in games. For a 20-year old in the Carolina League last year he held his own and has proven to be a durable, reliable starter. He projects to be a middle of the rotation big league starter with the potential to be more if he learns to better command the zone and develop his changeup and curveball. Due to depth in the upper levels he may open the 2011 season at Kinston, but should pitch a majority of the season at Double-A Akron, which is where his prospect mettle will truly be tested.

Year	Age	Team	Lvl	W	L	ERA	G	GS	IP	H	ER	HR	BB	SO	AVG	BB/9	K/9	WHIP
2009	19	Lake County	A	6	11	3.15	26	26	134.1	127	47	8	49	109	.250	3.3	7.3	1.31
2010	20	Kinston	A+	6	10	3.91	27	26	135.2	135	59	7	61	106	.264	4.0	7.0	1.45
		MiLB Totals		12	21	3.53	53	52	270.0	262	106	15	110	215	.257	3.7	7.2	1.38

Re: Minor Matters

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Baseball America's very unimpressed analysis of Matt Lawson

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Indians Acquire
Matt Lawson, 2b/lf
Age: 25. Position: 2B (99 G), LF (13 G), SS (2 G), CF (1 G).
Born: Nov. 18, 1985 in Joplin, Mo.
Ht.: 6-0. Wt.: 195. Bats: R. Throws: R.
School: Missouri State.
Career Transactions: Selected by Rangers in 14th round of 2007 draft; signed June 10, 2007 ... Traded by Rangers with 1B Justin Smoak and RHPs Blake Beavan and Josh Lueke to Mariners for LHP Cliff Lee, RHP Mark Lowe and cash, July 9, 2010.

Club (League) 	Class 	AVG 	G 	AB 	R 	H 	2B 	3B 	HR 	RBI 	BB 	SO 	SB 	OBP 	SLG
Frisco (TL) 	AA 	.277 	76 	292 	48 	81 	16 	5 	7 	34 	37 	64 	3 	.371 	.438
West Tenn (SL) 	AA 	.319 	42 	166 	27 	53 	10 	2 	2 	22 	11 	31 	3 	.376 	.440
Total 	.293 	118 	458 	75 	134 	26 	7 	9 	56 	48 	95 	6 	.372 	.439

Included as a throw-in in the Mariners-Rangers Cliff Lee trade last June, Lawson finds himself on the move yet again. In fact, he has a chance to appear in all three Double-A leagues in roughly the same calendar year if he opens this season with Akron of the Eastern League. Lawson checked off the Texas and Southern leagues in 2010. His range of abilities make him a likely utility player down the road, but probably one limited to second base and left field because of a below-average arm. Lawson has some home-run power, but his game is centered on grinding out at-bats and lining the ball into the gaps. An absolute best case would be Ryan Raburn, though Lawson has less power and less arm strength.

Re: Minor Matters

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Colorado Rockies
Signed: LHP Stephen Head (Southern Illinois (Frontier))

A two-way player at Ole Miss prior to his second-round selection in ’05 (by the Indians), Stephen Head slugged 60 homers in five seasons in the affiliated minors—plus 13 more in the Frontier League last year. But as the above indicates, the Rockies signed him as a pitcher. He made two relief appearances for Southern Illinois in ’10.

Re: Minor Matters

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Tony reaches his Top 10. Did I overlook Cord Phelps or has he not been listed yet? If not, Tony's overranking him. Joe Gardner his No. 10 is BA's No. 9. They say "he draws some comparisons to Justin Masterson--- both are loose, long-levered RH who attack hitters with quality sinkers from a low 3/4 arm slot. Gardner's sinker sits at 89-92 and touches 94, allowing him to post an exemplary groundout/airout ratio. He leans heavily on his 2-seamer, which has so much life that he has problems locating it at times. Though he can dominate a lineup with his fastball, h needs to improve his secondary pitches. His low arm slot makes it tough to maintain a constant slider which is avg at best. He needs a better change-up to combat LH [sounds like Masterson again]. Gardner has the potential to be a mid-rotation starter if he can develop a reliable slider and changeup; if not his ability to get groundouts would have value out of the bullpen.

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10 Joe Gardner
Posted by Tony at 12:01 AM
Joe Gardner – Right-handed Pitcher
Born: 03/18/1988 – Height: 6’5” – Weight: 225 – Bats: Right – Throws: Right

(Photo: Ken Carr)
History: Gardner was selected by the Indians in the 3rd round of the 2009 Draft out of the University of UC-Santa Barbara. He played summer ball in 2008 in Alaska for the Kenai Peninsula Oilers and went 6-0 with a 0.92 ERA, and then later went 2-0 with a 0.69 at the National Baseball Congress World Series in Wichita, Kansas. His pitching coach while with the Oilers was UC-Santana Barbara pitching coach and recruiting coordinator Tom Myers, who ended up offering Gardner a spot on the UC-Santa Barbara team where he transferred for the 2009 season. Last year he finished 4th in the organization in ERA (2.75), 1st in wins (13), and 1st in strikeouts (142). Even though he did not join High-A Kinston until mid-May, he finished 1st in the Carolina League in wins (12), 2nd in ERA (2.65), 13th in innings pitched (122.1), 9th in strikeouts (104), and 3rd in WHIP (1.11).

Strengths: Gardner is a big, strong, physical pitcher who throws a 91-94 MPH two-seam sinking fastball that touches 95 MPH with late heavy sink and excellent movement down in the zone that produces a ton of groundball outs. He relies on the hard boring action of his sinker heavily, throwing it 80-90% of the time, and is clearly the best pitch in his arsenal and arguably the best sinker in the minors. His low-three quarters slot and smooth arm action allows for a lot of sink and good tailing life to it. He has good command of his sinker by consistently throwing it for strikes, and really eats up right-handers because of his fearless approach of working in on their hands and feet. The sinker is hard and heavy and he consistently keeps it down in the zone which makes it hard for hitters to lift the ball off of him and really limits home runs.

Gardner complements his two-seam fastball with a slider and changeup. Both pitches are not expected to be major league weapons and project as only average offerings. His hard biting slider is solid-average and it sits around 80-81 MPH. The slider is the better of his two secondary offerings and has been adequate so far as a professional, and is expected to see improvement as he becomes more comfortable with it. He shows a feel for an average changeup with decent fade. He does a good job of keeping hitters off balance with it, particularly left-handers, and has seen more success and improvement with it. He also picked up a four-seam fastball once he signed with the Indians as they wanted him to have a variation to his fastball to have movement away and something to elevate and use when ahead in the count.

Even though his numbers last year were spectacular, Gardner is not a strikeout pitcher. Instead he relies on more of a pitch to contact approach and uses his sinker to limit extra base hits and get quick outs via the groundball. He is very aggressive and very confident on the mound and goes right after guys, and is not afraid to pitch inside to both left-handers and right-handers. The Indians really like him as a starting pitching prospect because in addition to his excellent sinker they believe both his changeup and slider will at least become major league average pitches, and he projects as a solid middle of the rotation pitcher who can haul innings.

Even though he was drafted in 2009, Gardner made his professional debut last year because of an injury he sustained in his last start in college which resulted in him not pitching with the Indians in 2009. After a complete game shutout against Long Beach State on May 9, 2009 he left his next start after two innings with an injury and then missed his final start of the season. The injury was a strained right serratus anterior muscle, which is a muscle located in the upper-torso region near the armpit that is largely responsible for the protraction of the shoulder bones. The Indians were aware of the injury when they drafted and signed him, though the injury was not expected to linger as long as it did. As a result, instead of making his professional debut and getting some quality work and innings at short-season Single-A Mahoning Valley in 2009, he in turn spent his first pro summer on a rehab assignment in Goodyear, Arizona and then made his organizational debut in Instructional League in September of 2009.

Gardner was consistent all last season from outing to outing and really did a good job keeping his routine in line and adjusting to the day-to-day grind of being a professional baseball player. He was so effective because he mixed in his slider and changeup well where a lot of times hitters were so geared up for his sinker with two strikes that he often went to his slider and rung up many hitters with it. He threw strikes and consistently filled the bottom of the zone with all three pitches to keep hitters off balance. He had no adjustment period when he was promoted to Kinston as he settled in there right away and dominated all year. He had some midseason struggles where he was trying to be a little bit too fine with his pitches and was having a lot of big misses, but was able to quickly correct the issue. After reviewing some video tape coaches found he was using his secondary pitches in favorable counts rather than going to his bread and butter pitch – his fastball – to put hitters away. Further study revealed that his delivery was being rushed which caused his front side to fly open a little bit and resulted in his fastball flattening out. After a few bullpen sessions he was able to work things out and slow things down which were instrumental in getting him back on track. The organization was extremely pleased with what he showed last year, and while he still has a long way to go, the progress he has made in such a short amount of time is impressive and exciting.

Opportunities: Since Gardner relies on his sinker so much, the development of his slider and changeup are really going to be the key in making him a more complete pitcher and also help him stay in the rotation as he continues to move up in the system. His slider and changeup are not projected to be plus pitches, but if he can get them both to where they are average to a tick or two above average major league pitches, they will go a long way at making his sinker so much more effective as he moves up the ranks in the minor leagues. He can get by with his sinker alone at the Single-A level against young, inexperienced hitters, but as he gets to Double-A and higher where hitters are much more patient and have much better plate discipline, his changeup and slider will become big keys to what kind of pitcher he ends up being and how far he goes. He needs to work on tightening up his slider as he has a tendency to get around it too much, and he needs to more consistently throw it to both sides of the plate, especially away from right-handers. His arm slot can sometimes lead to some sweeping action to his slider, which can lead to trouble against left-handers. His changeup is too firm and it tends to flatten out, so he needs to work on softening it up a little.

Even though his sinker is an excellent pitch, Gardner lacks a true swing and miss pitch which could present problems as he moves into the higher levels of the minors and potentially the big leagues. His sinker is a lot like Fausto Carmona’s in that it moves so much that he has trouble consistently keeping it in the zone, so he needs to continue to work on consistently commanding it down in the zone. He tends to have an inconsistent arm slot where at times it can end up more sidearm which leads to him elevating the ball. He is also not very athletic for a pitcher as his delivery is kind of funky and uncoordinated. He needs work on controlling the running game and holding runners better. He is still raw on the mound and really just needs to pitch and gain experience so he can better understand what he can and can’t do on the mound. The Indians think there is still some untapped velocity in his arm, so if his delivery is cleaned up and his mechanics improve he could see an uptick in his velocity.

Outlook: Gardner had about as good of a pro debut as you can possibly have last year with some very impressive numbers to go along with some interesting stuff. His awesome showing in Instructional League the previous fall really served as a springboard to some spectacular numbers last year as he had an outstanding groundball rate (3.21 GO/AO), opposing batting average (.197) and missed lots of bats (8.7 K/9). His emergence as an innings eating, sinker-balling, middle-of-the-rotation big league pitching prospect was one of the biggest stories to come out of the 2010 season. He showed he can dominate at both levels of Single-A, and one of the more intriguing stories to follow for the 2011 season will be how he adjusts and his stuff translates at Double-A against some top level competition. It’s still unclear what kind of prospect he will be, so this season will go a long way at proving that. He should open the 2011 season at Double-A Akron. If things continue to go well, he could enter into the Indians big league pitching plans sometime in 2012.

Year	Age	Team	Lvl	W	L	ERA	G	GS	IP	H	ER	HR	BB	SO	AVG	BB/9	K/9	WHIP
2010	22	Lake County	A	1	0	3.24	6	6	25.0	17	9	2	11	38	.185	4.0	13.7	1.12
2010	22	Kinston	A+	12	6	2.65	22	22	122.1	85	36	4	51	104	.199	3.8	7.7	1.11
		MiLB Totals		13	6	2.75	28	28	147.1	102	45	6	62	142	.197	3.8	8.7	1.11