Cleveland Indians: Nick Swisher and 7 other reasons for optimism in 2013

Published: Friday, December 28, 2012, 2:43 PM Updated: Friday, December 28, 2012, 3:03 PM
By Mike Peticca, The Plain Dealer

CLEVELAND, Ohio -- The Cleveland Indians haven't had a winning season since 2007, when they were one win away from playing in the World Series.

The Tribe, with Eric Wedge as the manager, went 96-66 to win the American League Central Division. Cleveland then eliminated the New York Yankees, three games to one, in the best-of-five-game American League Division Series. Then, in the AL Championship Series best-of-seven, the Indians went up on the Boston Red Sox, 3-1, before losing three straight games to end their season. Boston went on to win the World Series, sweeping the Colorado Rockies.

Since then, in order beginning with 2008, the Indians have finished with records of 81-81, 65-97, 69-93, 80-82 and 68-94 last season.

That's 363 wins and 447 losses over the last five campaigns, a .448 winning percentage. In those seasons, the Indians have finished a combined 89 games out of first place in the Central Division, and haven't been in serious contention for a wild card playoff berth.

This offseason, the Indians have made all kinds of news trying to improve their fortunes in 2013. The move that made the biggest splash nationally came Sunday, when free agent Nick Swisher agreed to sign with the Tribe, getting a four-year contract worth $56 million. The Dolan family ownership of the Indians is apparently willing to spend more money, in part due to the sale of SportsTime Ohio to Fox Sports Ohio, a deal which includes a multi-million dollars per year boost in rights fees to televise Indians games, as reported on Friday by The Plain Dealer's Paul Hoynes.

But there are other reasons, too, why 2013 has a chance to be a better year than recent ones for the Tribe. Here are several:

1. Terry Francona, accomplished skipper

Francona, introduced as the Indians' new manager on Oct. 8, won World Series with the Red Sox in 2004 and 2007. Following the 2011 season -- after some major player-egos had sabotaged playoff hopes -- the Red Sox let Francona go. He was working as an ESPN analyst when the Indians hired him.

Prior to Francona, the last skipper the Indians brought on with at least one winning season in the major leagues was John McNamara. He managed the Indians in 1990 and for 77 games in 1991, before he was fired and replaced by Mike Hargrove.

Francona is generally held in high regard by big league players. His reputation is considered a plus for the Tribe in any pursuit of free agents, and helped with the Swisher signing.

Francona is familiar with Cleveland and the Indians. The former first baseman-outfielder played for the Indians in 1988, when he hit .311 with one home run in 212 at bats. Francona worked in the Indians' front office in 2001, afer managing the Philadelphia Phillies for four years and before joining the Texas Rangers as their bench coach in 2002.

Tito Francona, Terry's father, was a fan favorite when he played the outfield and first base for the Indians from 1959-64. He hit .363 in 1959, falling 59 plate appearances short of qualifying for the batting championship, and made the American League all-star team in 1961.

2. Roster makes more sense

It would be an understatement to say the Indians had little right-handed hitting the last two years. They had precious few righty batters, let alone ones who could produce runs.

Cleveland's deep thinkers seemed to shrug off any questions about the oddly constructed rosters, in part due to their affinity for the wave of newfangled statistics that have become popular in a few big league front offices.

As mentioned before, the Tribe has landed free agent outfielder Nick Swisher, a switch-hitter who has averaged 26 home runs, 83 RBI and 83 walks in his eight full major league seasons. Also during the offseason, Cleveland has acquired some right-handed hitters who, interestingly, probably don't fit the profiles favored by the sabermetricians.

Former Baltimore Orioles first baseman Mark Reynolds, signed as a free agent, and outfielder Drew Stubbs, acquired from the Cincinnati Reds as part of a three-way trade, strike out at extraordinary rates and are not going to challenge for batting titles. Shortstop Mike Aviles, landed in a trade with the Toronto Blue Jays, seldom draws a walk.

Each, though, offers important qualities. Reynolds has averaged 30 home runs in six major league seasons. Stubbs utilizes his speed on the basepaths and in the field, and has some power. Aviles has a .277 career batting average and can also play second base and third base.

Even with their flaws, the presence of Reynolds, Stubbs and Aviles helps balance the Indians and means opposing managers won't always be able to create a lefty-pitcher vs. lefty-batter situation when they go to their bullpens -- let alone the edge that southpaw starting hurlers have enjoyed against the Tribe. Swisher, too, as a switch-hitter, helps negate what had been a huge disadvantage for the Indians.

3. Young position players still maturing

The Indians' nucleus includes a few holdover position players who have established themselves to varying degrees as solid players, and still haven't reached their prime.

Shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera, still the subject of trade rumors, will be 27 when the Tribe season begins on April 2 in Toronto. Cabrera tends to get out of shape and seems to lose a little interest once the team's season slips away, but he's made the last two all-star teams and being a switch-hitter adds to his value.

Second baseman Jason Kipnis will turn 26 the day after the season opener. He faded somewhat in the final couple months of last season, his first full one in the big leagues. Yet, he showed he can drive the ball, stole 31 bases and emerged as a standout fielder, even though it hasn't been that long since he made the move from the outfield to second.

Switch-hitting catcher Carlos Santana turns 27 six days into the season. He could become a premium offensive player for his position, as shown by his strong second half in 2012, after a slow start to what was his second full major league campaign. Santana's biggest challenge is to improve his work behind the plate.

Michael Brantley, 25, was first brought up to the Indians in 2009, but for him, too, 2012 was only his second full campaign in the bigs. It was a pretty good one, as he played a solid center field and batted .288 with just one strikeout per every 10 at bats -- though he hit just six homers. Brantley might be moved to left field as Stubbs is considered one of baseball's top defensive center fielders.

Third baseman Lonnie Chisenhall, 24 and considered among the Indians' top couple prospects the last few years, has hit .260 with 12 homers in 354 at bats during parts of the last two seasons with Cleveland. Chisenhall was emerging as a key part of the lineup when he was hit by a pitch last June 29, breaking his right forearm and sidelining him for 10 weeks.

Stubbs, 28, and Reynolds, 29, aren't too old to improve as hitters, too.

4. More money

The Indians' player payrolls in recent seasons have been among the cheapest in baseball, much to the chagrin of their fans.

Though the Indians' budget for their 2013 roster hasn't been publicly defined, it's apparent that the purse-strings have been at least somewhat loosened by the Dolan family ownership.

General manager Chris Antonetti and his staff had no chance of playing in the same ballpark as the Los Angeles teams, for instance, and getting in the game for star free agents such as Josh Hamilton and Zack Greinke.

Yet, the Indians have shown a willingness to put some cash on the table. The Swisher deal is believed to include a vesting option for a fifth year at $14 million -- matching the per-year value of the contract's first four years.

The Indians signed Reynolds to a one-year contract, reportedly for $6 million and another $1.5 million in incentives. And, Cleveland offered free agent outfielder Shane Victorino a four-year/$44 million deal, but he opted to sign for three years and $39 million with the Boston Red Sox.

As mentioned before, if indeed the Indians are operating with an increased budget, a primary factor is likely the purchase of SportsTime Ohio by Fox Sports Ohio. The team's recent spending and the influx of more money may mean, too, that the Indians would have more opportunity to make meaningful player acquisitions as the July 31 trade deadline approaches, if they are in playoff contention.

5. Deep, proven bullpen

The strength of the Indians the last 2 1/2 seasons has been their bullpen. Teams seldom take for granted that good relief pitching will carry over from one season to the next -- it might be the most fluid aspect of the game -- but the Indians can't be blamed for thinking their bullpen will again be among the American League's best.

Closer Chris Perez, whose candor sometimes creates controversy, has been an all-star the last two seasons. There has been speculation he could be traded, probably more because of his market value than due to his outspokenness.

Eighth inning specialist Vinnie Pestano and set-up man Joe Smith have both been superb the last two seasons. Pestano's stuff is one reason Perez has been mentioned as a trade candidate.

Matt Albers and Bryan Shaw were obtained from the Arizona Diamondbacks in the three-team trade also involving Cincinnati. They and Cody Allen add to the depth of the right handed relief pitching, while Nick Hagadone and Scott Barnes have the potential to help from the left side.

6. Starting pitchers' youth

Young doesn't necessarily mean good, but all of the pitchers who are locks to be in the starting rotation or have a chance to join it are in their 20s, and have either shown some promise at the big league level or are considered prospects to some degree.

The key offseason acquisition has pitched 16 1/3 major league innings but is considered one of baseball's top prospects, and was the third overall pick in the 2011 amateur draft. That's right-hander Trevor Bauer, who will turn 22 on Jan. 17 and was acquired from Arizona in the three-way trade that included the Indians' move of right fielder Shin-Soo Choo to Cincinnati. Bauer, if he looks good in spring training, has a solid chance to begin the season in the Indians' rotation.

Holdovers who are virtually assured of starting spots are Ubaldo Jimenez, who will be 29 on Jan. 22, and Justin Masterson, to be 28 on March 22. The right-handers both have above-average stuff, but need to establish consistency. Jimenez, of course, has been a disappointment since the Indians got him in a deal with the Colorado Rockies just prior to the 2011 trade deadline.

Zach McAllister, who hit 25 on Dec. 8, and Corey Kluber, 26, both joined the rotation last season, in part because Jeanmar Gomez, 25 come Feb. 10, didn't take advantage of his opportunity. Gomez, though, remains a rotation candidate, as does David Huff, 28, the lone left-hander in the group.

Carlos Carrasco, who turns 26 on March 21, may be in the running for a starting spot. Carrasco, once considered a top prospect, made several solid starts in 2010 and 2011 with the Indians before having Tommy John surgery on his right (throwing) elbow. He threw well in limited duty at the end of last season for the Class AA Akron Aeros, and the reports on how he recently threw in the Arizona Parallel League were encouraging.

7. So-so Central besides Tigers

On paper, the only imposing team in the Central Division is its two-time defending champion, the Detroit Tigers. The Chicago White Sox led the division in 2012 prior to a late-season collapse. They were one of baseball's biggest surprises over the first few months, and aren't considered among the elite teams.

The Kansas City Royals have a solid young nucleus and have improved their pitching during the offseason, but they haven't won more than 75 games in a campaign since 2003. The Minnesota Twins finished two games behind the Indians, in last place with a 66-96 record.

Looking at the depth of good teams in the AL East and West divisions, it would be a surprise for one of the two wild card teams to come out of the Central Division. The Indians' best hope for the postseason rests on them playing better than expected; for the Tigers to falter as good teams sometimes do, and somehow place below Cleveland; for none of the division's three other teams to play much better than .500 baseball.

Pass the Kool Aid

Stubbs, 28, and Reynolds, 29, aren't too old to improve as hitters, too.

That's incorrect. They are what they are which is big swinging RH who will have help balance the lineup. But there is not reason to expect them to improve; Stubbs has been declining steadily over recent years; Reynolds hasn't hit as well in his last 3 seasons compared to his first 3.

Stole this from IndiansInk forum I just ran across:

Bill James 2013 Indians Line up

.279 .342 .416 Cabrera (16 HR/12 SB)
.279 .344 .379 Brantley (7 HR/19 SB)
.231 .336 .463 Reynolds (32 HR / 5 SB)
.256 .362 .458 Swisher (25 HR / 2 SB )
.274 .351 .429 Kipnis (18 HR/28 SB)
.262 .310 .433 Chisenhall (18 HR / 3 SB)
.261 .383 .476 Santana (25 HR / 4 SB)
.267 .300 .409 Aviles (13 HR / 13 SB) (DH)
.246 .319 .386 Stubbs (16 HR/ 33 SB)

Team Average:

2013 Projected: .262/.339/.427 170 HR / 119 SB
2012 Real Total: .251/ .324/.381 136 HR / 110 SB

That would be quite a decent improvement. But can they pitch?

From the same place:

170 HRs would have put the Indians 12th in Baseball last year (25th)
.262 BA would have put the Indians 9th in Baseball last year (18th)
119 SB would have put the Indians 10th in Baseball last year (12th)
.339 OBP would have put the Indians 1st in Baseball last year (11th) [1st?!]
.427 SLG would have put the Indians 7th in Baseball last year (25th)

Runs

All that other stuff means nothing unless you score runs.

What's the projected runs number?

Click on OBP, or any stat, to see the rankings:

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/team/_/sta ... order/true

According to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, the Indians have reached a one-year contract with Brett Myers.

The deal includes a club option for 2014. Myers, 32, had a solid 3.31 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 41/15 K/BB ratio in 65 1/3 innings of relief last year between the Astros and White Sox. He'll return to starting duties with Cleveland and should carry value in mixed fantasy leagues.

Source: Jon Heyman on Twitter Jan 1 - 5:07 PM

MLB Rumors: Indians to sign pitcher Brett Myers
January 1, 2013 By Craig Lyndall 4 Comments
Twitter is abuzz with rumors that the Indians have signed pitcher Brett Myers. The Indians have yet to confirm the signing which is likely pending a physical if it has actually occurred. Matt Loede from 92.3 the Fan in Cleveland was the first to post it.
If it is true, Brett Meyers gives the Indians a 32-year-old pitcher with starting experience who most recently came out of the bullpen for the White Sox. He played in 35 games for the White Sox with a 3.12 ERA. He had 21 strikeouts and nine walks.
Myers is also famous (or infamous) for his verbal altercation with a Philadelphia reporter that resulted in him saying, “Boom. Outta here.”

paul hoynes
‏@hoynsie

Indians sign Brett Myers to one year deal. He 'll be in rotation

Now they need to sign a DH (Manny) and unlike the past decade they will have accomplished their off season goals.

As far as I can tell, they haven't even signed Swisher yet. Myers and Swisher will require 2 roster moves.

Must be waiting for the FO to come back from their cruise.

A little more - there's a club option.

Brett Myers - R - White Sox

According to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, the Indians have reached a one-year contract with Brett Myers.
The deal includes a club option for 2014. Myers, 32, had a solid 3.31 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 41/15 K/BB ratio in 65 1/3 innings of relief last year between the Astros and White Sox. He'll return to starting duties with Cleveland.

A really nice signing IMO to lengthen the rotation.

No doubt anymore that it should be an improved club next year. And who knows if they are done?

Love the Aviles signing BTW.

I agree with kenm that a DH would top it off quite nicely.

Do you agree about which DH?