They have room yet to add 2 to the 40-man roster if they choose. The deadline to do so is November 18. I imagine they'd want to protect catcher Chun Chen. Maybe pitchers Rob Bryson, Bryce Stowell. I'd rather lose Corey Kluber than any of those 3. More to the point I could make a case for some other team to pick Chen, Bryson or Stowell in the Rule 5 draft, but certainly not Kluber.

Rodriguez to manage High-A Carolina

11:28 AM Tony No comments


Edwin Rodriguez (Photo: MLB)
Today the Cleveland Indians announced that Edwin Rodriguez has been named as the manager of their High-A Carolina Mudcats affiliate of the Carolina League. The Mudcats are located in Zebulon, NC and it is the new High-A affiliate for the Indians after the Cleveland-Kinston relationship ended this past season because the franchise was sold to the Carolina Mudcats.

Rodriguez, 51, went a combined 78-85 (.479) over his two seasons as manager of the Florida Marlins from June 23, 2010 to June 18, 2011. He was the the first Puerto Rican-born manager in Major League Baseball history.

Prior to managing the Marlins he was a manager in the Marlins' minor league system from 2005-2010, first joining the South Florida organization in 2004 as hitting coach for the then Double-A Carolina Mudcats. He also spent parts of three seasons in the Major Leagues as a player with the New York Yankees and San Diego Padres from 1982-85 before concluding his player career in 1987. He has been in the game as a player, coach, scout and manager for the last 32 seasons since 1980.

Rodriguez replaces Aaron Holbert who was the Indians' manager at High-A Kinston the last two seasons but left the organization this offseason to be a part of the Atlanta Braves organization.

Tony on the 40 m an roster moves. I forgot about Barnes. I'm sure Tony is right that he is a lock.

The November roster deadline looms this weekend for all teams in Major League Baseball.

Teams have already begun to set their 40-man rosters by designating a few players for assignment and clearing out the 60-day disabled lists. All that is left to do is to add important players from their minor league player development systems that are eligible for roster protection from the Rule 5 Draft this December. (For more information on what makes a player eligible for roster protection or what the Rule 5 Draft you can view the FAQ.)

The offseason 40-man roster process does not get a lot of attention from a majority of fans or the media. This is mostly because the names being added to the roster are unknowns to a lot of people and the names coming off are players who underwhelmed with performance or had injury issues and the fans are ready to move on to other options.

But the offseason roster process is very important to follow as it is one of the first steps teams take to finalize their roster for the upcoming season. It is also a huge deal for the players coming off the roster because their big league dreams take a serious hit and they find themselves having to quickly reassess things and figure out what they need to do to get back onto a Major League roster. For the players coming onto the roster it is a big moment for them as it is their biggest step to date in their quest to make the big leagues and get an opportunity in the future.

The Indians recently completed some roster moves to clear space on the 40-man roster in advance of the roster deadline.

Outfielder Grady Sizemore’s 2012 club option was declined which removed him from the roster and made him a free agent. Also in the past few weeks the Indians have designated outfielder Trevor Crowe, outfielder Jerad Head, and right-handed pitcher Mitch Talbot for assignment. The Indians also had three free agents in outfielder Kosuke Fukudome, designated hitter Jim Thome, and right-handed pitcher Chad Durbin come off the roster.

With the removal of those seven players above along with some players that were on the 60-day disabled list being added back to the 40-man roster, the Indians current 40-man roster stands at 38 players.

There are certainly some players still on the 40-man roster that could still be removed, but most of the housecleaning has already been done on the roster and it does not appear any more players will be designated for assignment in advance of the roster deadline this weekend. Some of the players who survive the roster cut this weekend will still be the first options to remove if the Indians need roster space when they acquire players this offseason via free agency or trade.

With all this in mind, let's take a look at the players in the Indians minor league system that are eligible for roster protection and the likelihood any are added.

Pitchers: Elvis Araujo, Scott Barnes, Eric Berger, Rob Bryson, Paolo Espino, Francisco Jimenez, Kyle Landis, Matt Langwell, Joey Mahalic, T.J. McFarland, Oswel Munoz, Alexander Perez, Marty Popham, Bryan Price, Danny Salazar, Bryce Stowell, Steven Wright

Catchers: Doug Pickens, Roberto Perez

Infielders: Adam Abraham, Juan Diaz, Jared Goedert, Argenis Martinez, Beau Mills, Karexon Sanchez, Jeremie Tice

Outfielders: Delvi Cid, Ben Copeland, Tim Fedroff, Bo Greenwell, Chad Huffman, Carlos Moncrief, Donnie Webb

Locks

Scott Barnes: Left-handed starting pitcher
2011 stats: 8-4, 3.45 ERA, 18 G, 99.0 IP, 85 H, 12 HR, 36 BB, 107 K, 1.00 GO/AO, .230 BAA

The only absolute lock to be added to the 40-man roster is Barnes. Even though he tore the ACL in his knee back in July he is still too valuable to leave unprotected as he is already considered to be a Major League quality pitcher. He was consistently pitching at 93 MPH last year and has some good secondary stuff to where he has the potential to be a solid middle of the rotation big league starter. He really broke through this past season as a prospect and is no doubt one of the Indians top five prospects going into 2012. He will serve as rotation depth next season, though his chances of pitching in the big leagues are remote because he is coming off of injury and he has several other pitchers in the pecking order ahead of him, so he will need to wait his turn. The wait will serve him good as he still needs to work on his fastball command and get more consistent with his delivery, two things that he can do in the early parts of the season at Triple-A Columbus next year.

In Consideration

Elvis Araujo: Left-handed starting pitcher

2011 stats: 9-1, 3.36 ERA, 15 G, 69.2 IP, 65 H, 2 HR, 25 BB, 63 K, 1.36 GO/AO, .245 BAA

Araujo puts the Indians in an interesting conundrum. He is a top ten prospect and arguably the best left-handed pitching prospect in the system as he can get his fastball in the mid-90s and has a nice power breaking ball. But by the same token he has yet to pitch a single inning for a full season Single-A team and has pitched just 6.2 innings above the rookie ball level. Considering that he would be an extremely green pitcher to roster that is still at least two or three years away from sniffing the big leagues. If you roster him now he likely will blow all of his option years in the minors developing and the Indians may run out of time with him later and have to cut him earlier than they want because he was rostered so soon and ran out of options. The Indians are in this position because he missed the entire 2009 and 2010 seasons because of an elbow injury in spring training back in March of 2009 that required Tommy John surgery. After the time away he did not make his return to the mound until this past summer for rookie level Arizona. I think it is very doubtful that he is rostered, but the Indians may feel he is too valuable to expose and just decide to roster him on talent alone.

Rob Bryson: Right-handed reliever
2011 stats: 2-1, 2.29 ERA, 30 G, 39.1 IP, 28 H, 3 HR, 16 BB, 48 K, 0.61 GO/AO, .292 BAA

It is amazing how things can change from one year to the next. At this time last year Bryson would have had a great shot to be rostered, but because of a clause with him being part of the final draft and follow class of 2007 it prevented him from being eligible for roster protection last year. This ultimately hurt him as it is now very questionable whether or not he will be added this offseason. He missed the first two months of the season because of a broken foot and even though he pitched well when he returned he still only managed to finish the season at Double-A Akron. Had he been rostered and healthy all year he probably would have made it up to Triple-A Columbus at some point and pitched meaningful innings there. He is one of the Indians’ top relief pitching prospects and he has extra value to the organization as one of the players acquired in the C.C. Sabathia trade from the Brewers in July of 2009, so this will help his chances of being rostered. But he does not have the momentum this year that he had last year going into the offseason, and it does not look like it will happen unless the Indians clear more roster space.

Tim Fedroff: Outfielder[/b

]2011 stats: .308 AVG, 71 R, 28 2B, 6 3B, 3 HR, 63 RBI, 62 BB, 74 K, 10 SB, .793 OPS

Fedroff had a very good bounce back season after a subpar 2010 campaign at Double-A Akron (.274 AVG, .715 OPS). He is a steady defender who is tough and has shown an ability to draw walks and steal a few bases. I think it is very unlikely the Indians roster Fedroff, but he is a higher profile player and there is a possibility he could be rostered so it is why he is listed here. I just find it hard to believe that the Indians would remove Trevor Crowe from the 40-man roster so they could add Fedroff, a player who in some ways is like Crowe. But Fedroff has never been regarded as a prospect anywhere near what Crowe was, and Crowe is already a Major League option with experience. So barring something very surprising, Fedroff will not be added. He is definitely Major League depth for the Indians next year, but if he is rostered the chances are more likely it comes during the season next year and not now.


T.J. McFarland: Left-handed starting pitcher
2011 stats: 9-10, 3.74 ERA, 27 G, 149.1 IP, 149 H, 11 HR, 51 BB, 115 K, 2.49 GO/AO, .259 BAA

McFarland is about as close to a lock as you can get, but he is not a slam dunk to be rostered so it is why he is listed here. He has the potential to pitch in the big leagues someday as a starter or reliever, and the Indians have been very high on him for awhile. The Indians continue to rave about his ability to eat innings and be a groundball machine, two things that fit right into their current organizational philosophy with starting pitchers. He is currently pitching out in the Arizona Fall League and has pitched well there going 2-0 with a 3.33 ERA in 7 games (6 starts). He has had three straight good to very good years in the minors and though he will probably start next season at Double-A Akron he should pitch a meaningful amount of games at Triple-A Columbus. Unless the Indians only roster one player (Barnes), McFarland will likely be added to the roster.

Beau Mills: First baseman

2011 stats: .289 AVG, 50 R, 22 2B, 1 3B, 18 HR, 67 RBI, 32 BB, 59 K, .860 OPS

It was the year of the comeback for a few Tribe players as not only did Tim Fedroff come back this year to have a good season, but Beau Mills arguably had his best pro season and put himself back on the big league radar. Unfortunately for him he hits left-handed, something the Indians have a lot of on their big league roster already. He also plays first base, which is a position they are looking to upgrade this offseason via free agency or trade, and they already have in house options as good or better than Mills to fill the position such as Matt LaPorta, Shelley Duncan, and Carlos Santana. First basemen generally are avoided in the Rule 5 Draft because of a lack of versatility, and even if Mills did in fact put it all together last year his prospect status with a lot of organizations is probably a ship that has already sailed. He should open next season at Triple-A Columbus and be Major League depth in the event the first base option the Indians do acquire this offseason gets hurt, and then maybe if he is playing well he gets rostered during the season. But he most likely will not be added now.
]

Carlos Moncrief: Outfielder

2011 stats: .233 AVG, 73 R, 26 2B, 7 3B, 16 HR, 53 RBI, 76 BB, 158 K, 20 SB, .768 OPS

This is an extreme long shot, but Moncrief is included as part of the discussion (like Araujo) because of his talent alone. The batting average and strikeouts last year were not very good, but he may be one of the most complete position players in the entire Indians’ system and is one of their better prospects overall. He has had a busy year playing all season for Low-A Lake County and then in Instructional League and now the Arizona Fall League. Every day he showcases his athleticism in the outfield as a very good defender with a howitzer for an arm, and at the plate has a nice power-speed combo and has shown an ability to be patient and draw walks. He is only in Low-A because he spent the first two years of his pro career as a pitcher and in 2010 he was converted to a position player. He provides a lot of raw ability for the Indians to work with, and while the odds are he will never become anything, he by every definition is a valuable prospect because of his potential. Another club may view him just as highly as the Indians – if not even more – and the Indians may decide that is too big of a gamble to risk losing him. That having been said, I’d put the odds of him being rostered as extremely remote.

Bryce Stowell: Right-handed reliever

2011 stats: 1-1, 2.09 ERA, 38.2 IP, 21 H, 1 HR, 21 BB, 57 K, 0.72 GO/AO, .159 BAA

The year Stowell had was one of the most peculiar of any player in the Indians’ system in some time. After finishing the 2010 season at Triple-A Columbus he looked locked and loaded for a big league opportunity in 2011 because of his prospect standing and 100 MPH fastball. But in spring training he was a mess mechanically as he could not throw strikes and when camp broke he mysteriously was left off any full season team roster. He reappeared in mid-June all the way down at Low-A Lake County, and when asked where he had been or why he was in Lake County the Indians simply said that Stowell had some personal issues he was dealing with and was being built back up. That may have been the case, but there may have also been an injury that neither he nor the Indians wanted to disclose (they do not have to disclose injuries). In any case he spent most of the season on the shelf or in Single-A before finally going to Double-A Akron in late July. He did not get a late season promotion to Triple-A Columbus – even for the playoffs – which is interesting for a pitcher or his caliber and standing, so something else was definitely in play here. The fact that Stowell had such an odd season and teams may not fully understand why the Indians handled him the way they did may be a big red flag and result in them just passing on him for any consideration as a Rule 5 pick. Yes, he has a blazing 100 MPH fastball, but that fastball also comes with some sizable control issues. You combine that with a questionable health status and teams may decide to look elsewhere. I believe the Indians will gamble and not roster him as there appears no way he can stick on a Major League roster all season because of those command issues. But if the Indians do add a third player to the roster, it should be him or Bryson.

Out of the Picture

As for the rest of the players up for roster protection, they pretty much have no shot to be rostered. The reasons as to why this is the case varies, but the main reasons are talent, value, performance and skill set.

A player like Paolo Espino continues to pump out great stats in the minors, but he is one of those undervalued guys in the minors that a lot of teams see little if any Major League future in and even if he does make it the outlook for his success is limited. He is the kind of player that the Indians can take the gamble on not protecting and if he is taken in the Rule 5 Draft they have more than enough right-handed starting pitching and relief depth in the upper levels of the minors to fill in for his loss.

Matt Langwell has put up great numbers out of the bullpen in his minor league career, but because of so much right-handed relief pitching depth he probably will not be rostered especially considering some higher profile right-handed relievers like Rob Bryson and Bryce Stowell are up for roster protection as well. The same thing is the case for a guy like Eric Berger who has some potential Major League value someday, but is still too inconsistent and the Indians have some left-handed pitching depth already on the 40-man roster.

Also, for as solid a season as Jared Goedert had this past season, he has almost no chance to be added to the 40-man roster this offseason. He was removed during the past season and all 29 other MLB teams had a chance to claim him off of waivers but passed. Considering they passed before it is unlikely they will pick him up in the Rule 5 Draft and have that Rule 5 roster stipulation over their head when they could have just added him to their roster a few months ago when he was available on waivers.

Conclusion

With only two spots open on the 40-man roster, the opportunities are definitely limited as to whom the Indians add to the roster before the deadline this weekend. Thankfully, there are not a lot of high level prospects they need to add as most of the players who were up for roster protection were already added during the season. Players such as second baseman Jason Kipnis, third baseman Lonnie Chisenhall, second baseman Cord Phelps, and right-handed pitcher Zach Putnam.

There is no slotting system the Indians use to put together their 40-man roster as they will simply just add the best eligible players. Whether or not they are roster heavy with pitchers or outfielders does not matter as they will always add the talent first and then figure out the position surplus later.

So at the moment – barring a trade or a player or two being designated for assignment in the next few days - it looks like the Indians are going to roster just two players. The two players I predict they will add are Scott Barnes and T.J. McFarland.

As noted above, Barnes is an absolute lock. McFarland is a pretty strong possibility as well, and it appears the only way he is not added is if they choose to just roster one player. There is a small chance the Indians could roster Bryson or Stowell over McFarland, but considering McFarland’s value as a groundball specialist who can start it just outweighs the value of any relief pitcher, especially considering the Indians have so much relief pitching depth in the system.

With Barnes and McFarland looking like the two guys the Indians roster, the only drama that remains is whether or not the Indians make a move to clear another spot on the roster to add a third player. If they do then it should come down to one of Bryson or Stowell and the decision there could really go either way. But that appears remote as in the end I will still predict just two players get rostered.

And there could always be a surprise as in the past there have been some like Wes Hodges and Carlos Rivero who were rostered in 2009.

In any case, in the next few days we will find out for certain who has been rostered.

Guess I was wrong that Chun Chen was Rule 5 eligible.

I'm not very excited by TJ McFarland but I wasn't by Josh Tomlin and McF may be a LH Tomlin: ground ball, inning eating starter.

Indians add three players to the 40-man roster
7:19 PM Tony 1 comment

Scott Barnes
The Indians officially announced today that left-handed pitcher Scott Barnes, infielder Juan Diaz, and right-handed pitcher Danny Salazar have been added to the 40-man roster. They also designated infielder Luis Valbuena for assignment.

Barnes, 24, spent most of 2011 at Triple-A Columbus after two starts in Double-A Akron to begin the season, going a combined 8-4 with a 3.45 ERA in 18 games/17 starts (99.0 IP, 85 H, 36 BB, 107 K). Over his last 10 starts with Columbus from May 24th to July 10th he was 5-3 with a 2.58 ERA (59.1 IP, 49 H, 19 BB, 63 K) before injuring his left knee in a start at Toledo on July 10th. The injury turned out to be an ACL tear and he had season-ending surgeryater required surgery. At the time of the injury he ranked 4th in the International League in strikeouts (90), 7th in batting average against (.240), 10th in wins (7) and 17th in ERA (3.68). The Indians acquired Barnes from the San Francisco Giants in July 2009 in exchange for infielder Ryan Garko. He owns a four year minor league career record of 31-23 with a 3.87 ERA in 82 games (77 GS, 423.0 IP, 366 H, 155 BB, 435 K).

Diaz, 22, spent the entire 2011 regular season at Double-A Akron where he led the team in games (133), hits (133), total bases (192), multi-hit games (35) and doubles (24) after hitting .255 (133-522) with 24 2B, 4 3B, 9 HR & 60 RBI in 133 games. The switch-hitting shortstop was 6th in the Eastern League in at bats and 16th in hits. He was an Eastern League All Star and was promoted to Columbus for the postseason where he hit .250 (8-32) with 3 2B, 4 RBI and 5 runs scored in all 8 playoff games. He was acquired from Seattle in June 2010 along with outfielder Ezequiel Carrera in exchange for infielder Russell Branyan.

Salazar, 21, was limited to eight starts between Lake County and the rookie Arizona Indians this past season after undergoing reconstructive surgery on his right throwing elbow the previous August. In those eight combined starts he posted a 3.07 ERA (14.2 IP, 14 H, 4BB, 18 K). He owns a five year career minor league record of 15-15 with a 3.47 ERA in 60 starts (272.0 IP, 260 H, 82 BB, 198 K).

With the moves the 40-man roster is now at 40.

Salazar? There's a surprise. Someone would have drafted him? And kept him? Seems awfully unlikely, but the Indians certainly know better than me. I'd be surprised if he makes it anywhere near the majors before his options have been used up.

I'd draft Stowell if I were a second division team looking for bullpen power arm.

Not sure why we had not suggested Diaz before. He's supposed to be an excellent defensive SS. That's a useful commodity for trade if nothing else. John McDonald is still around; just signed another FA contract. All he can do is field and he's been around the majors a decade.

Tony on the choices:

The Indians made 40-man roster decisions yesterday to add left-handed pitcher Scott Barnes, shortstop Juan Diaz, and right-handed pitcher Danny Salazar. To create some extra roster space to add the third player they designated infielder Luis Valbuena for assignment.

Yesterday was the 40-man roster deadline for teams to add players from their minor league system that are up for roster protection from the Rule 5 Draft held every December. By adding a player to the 40-man roster it protects them from being selected in the Rule 5 Draft and all the other players that were not rostered are free to be selected in the draft.

Some of the decisions the Indians made were obvious, but most of them were puzzling. Here is a quick smorgasbord of thoughts on the decisions:

•First off, let’s get this one out of the way….it was a very obvious decision to roster Barnes. This was a slam dunk decision and was a given going in that they would roster him. He has Major League value as a starting pitcher and if not for tearing the ACL in his left knee in July he may have been a legit big league option to start this coming season. He will still be big league rotation depth this coming season, but will use the first half of the season mostly to get healthy and to work on things at Triple-A Columbus in order to set himself up for an opportunity in Cleveland. He has some good stuff as he consistently gets the ball up to 92-93 MPH and he has a very good changeup, and he has a funky hitch in is his delivery which helps create some deception. He is also viewed as more than a back of the rotation big league starter as the Indians and other clubs believe he has the potential to be a solid middle of the rotation starter in the near future, and if starting does not work out he could be a good lefty reliever in the bullpen.


•Moving on from Barnes, the rest of the roster additions were very surprising. With respect to the Indians and their decisions makers, I disagree with the adding of both Diaz and Salazar to the roster. And I mean that as no disrespect to both Diaz and Salazar either as I am always elated to see a minor league player achieve their goal to get on the 40-man roster as it is one of the first steps to get that coveted big league opportunity. But I have to wonder what the urgency was to get both of these players on the roster?


•Diaz is a good defender and switch hitter, but his bat is limited and while he does have Major League potential it is very limited as he does not figure to ever be an everyday player and at best may be a utility infielder. He also lacks some of the speed and overall athleticism a team sometimes wants in a utility infielder. Yes, he could conceivably play any infield position and play it well, but with his 6’4 and 180-pound frame and average speed he is not going to be a very useful late inning pinch running option off the bench, which is typically another value a utility player offers. In some ways, he is a lot like former Indians’ prospect Carlos Rivero who was actually rostered at this time two years ago (and removed less than 12 months later), but even though their performance in their careers to date have been similar he does not have the prospect pedigree Rivero had.


•Yes, the Indians are high on Diaz and some may say it is just them trying to validate the Branyan trade by making them look smart ending up with two 40-man players in Diaz and Ezequiel Carrera. But a player like Diaz is not hard to find in the minors. I do not see what the worry was that he may have been lost in the Rule 5 Draft, and even if he was lost he does not have the bat and extra tools to his game that would seem to help carry him on a Major League roster all season. Had he even survived on a roster all season, the Indians would lose at most, what, a Hector Luna type of player?


•The Indians essentially removed Luis Valbuena from the roster to add Diaz. For them to do that it does not say a lot about how the Indians view Valbuena. Both Diaz and Valbuena are fringe Major League players, and while this may come as a surprise...I would have rather held onto Valbuena instead of rostering Diaz. The Indians still had one option left on Valbuena for next season so they could have just stashed him away at Triple-A Columbus (like Diaz) as infield depth. I know a lot of people could no longer stand Valbuena, but he is a superior hitter to Diaz, which is saying a lot considering how awful he has performed at the Major League level the last two years. For as much of a slouch as Valbuena has been in the bigs, Diaz can’t touch Valbuena’s .895 combined OPS at Triple-A Columbus over the past three seasons. Although Diaz is a better defender, I don’t think it trumps the value Valbuena still brought as a more versatile and experienced player with a better bat and who has proven himself at the Triple-A level already. Boy, I never thought I would see the day I preferred Valbuena on the roster to another player.


•As for Salazar, he is a very talented pitcher and a guy the Indians have been high on for some time, and he was sensational in his return to the mound this summer and fall since coming back from Tommy John surgery in August of 2010. He only made a handful of appearances late in the year, but in eight combined appearances between rookie Arizona and Low-A Lake County he went 0-0 with a 3.07 ERA (14.2 IP, 14 H, 4 BB, 18 K). But where he really shined was in the Fall Instructional League where he made five appearances and had a 1.32 ERA (13.2 IP, 9 H, 1 BB, 13 K) and was up to 98 MPH with his fastball.

•Even still, the decision to roster Salazar is one I just do not get at all. He is still a pitcher who has never pitched above the Low-A level. That’s three levels of the minors below the big leagues he has never pitched in. Considering he is coming off of injury, pitched a limited amount of innings, and has so little experience in the higher levels of the minors I can’t think of why any team would pick him in the Rule 5 Draft. None. Sure, he is throwing harder and the scouts for other teams probably saw that this fall, but would he really have been selected in the Rule 5 Draft? I guess anything is possible as no one saw right-hander Jose Flores getting selected last year as the Mariners picked him up as a flier after he threw well in the 2010 playoffs. But man, it just seems like a big reach to add Salazar.


•If I had known the Indians would go this route, I would have rather just rostered Barnes and left an open spot on the roster because now they have very little roster flexibility. Very rarely will you ever see a team designate a player for assignment that they just added to the roster in the same offseason, so when perusing the Indians’ 40-man roster the next two players in line to remove to make space on it for a free agent/trade pickup would be outfielder Nick Weglarz and left-handed pitcher Kelvin De La Cruz. I’d rather keep both of those guys on the roster than Diaz or Salazar.


•I had predicted on Tuesday that I thought left-hander T.J. McFarland would be the second player rostered and if a third player was rostered it would be one of the right-handed relievers Rob Bryson or Bryce Stowell. I felt going in it was unlikely anyone but Barnes or McFarland would be rostered, but I guess I must have misread their feelings on McFarland (and I guess Diaz/Salazar). He best projects as a back of the rotation Major League starter which does is not a major concern to protect, but after rostering right-hander Zach McAllister last year and knowing how much they like McFarland and his sinker I felt he would be added because of his value as a starter or reliever down the road. [McFarland impresses me very very little, FWIW, Civ says]


•Also, actions also speak louder than words. The fact the Indians rostered Salazar over guys like Stowell and Bryson shows they have more belief in Salazar as a prospect. That Salazar has been a grossly undervalued prospect while Stowell and Bryson may have been overvalued by others. I still believe the Indians value both Stowell and Bryson, but it is clear it is not as high as some thought it was. It also has to be a big blow for both Bryson and Stowell to get passed over like this. It looks like Bryson’s foot injury really hurt him in more ways than one this year, and whatever happened personally with Stowell must have really hurt his standing as well.


•With all that said above, I am not too worried about losing anyone in the Rule 5 Draft. Even if the Indians do lose a guy or two, I don't expect any of them to stick. So my perplexity on the moves is not who they rostered instead of someone else, it is that I think they rostered two guys they did not have to and may now maybe have to lose someone of more importance on the 40-man roster as a result (i.e. Weglarz).

Here's what Tony said about Danny Salazar before the 2010 season and before his TJ surgery. He rated Salazar our #33 prospect. Baseball America did not list him anywhere on their depth chart which had well over 50 players including 32 pitchers.

History: Salazar was signed by the Indians as an undrafted free agent out of the Dominican Republic during the International Signing Period in July 2006. He made his stateside debut in Instructional League in 2007 and in the rookie level Gulf Coast League in 2008.

Strengths & Opportunities: Salazar has a three pitch mix of a fastball, slider and changeup. His plus fastball sits between 89-92 MPH while touching 94 MPH. He pitches off his fastball and relies on it a lot, and the pitch has good late movement and he commands it well by throwing good strikes in the zone. He has a good feel for a changeup at such a young age, and it is his best secondary pitch at the moment showing good tumbling action. He also flashes an average slider with late, hard bite that hitters have no chance at when he is on. He is a former shortstop and moves around well, so that excellent athleticism will help him make adjustments more easily and in a shorter timeframe. He shows great composure and good makeup.

Salazar made a lot of progress last year pitching in his first full season. He spent the first six weeks of the season in extended spring training, and when he first arrived at Low-A Lake County in May he was up in the zone with his fastball command. He was also getting a little bit across himself with his delivery, so it did not allow him to leverage the ball down in the zone consistently. As the season wore on he made progress with improving his pitching mechanics and his stride direction was much more consistent which in turn allowed him to command his fastball better. This shows in his numbers as in the first half of the season he was 1-3 with a 6.81 ERA in 8 starts, but in the second half he was 4-4 with a 3.20 ERA in 13 starts.

Salazar's improvement in the second half was also a result of him getting better at trusting his stuff and keeping hitters off balance with his improved secondary pitches. The main focus for him this coming season is getting him more consistent with his delivery, command, and refining his secondary stuff. Also, the Indians would like to see him pile up more strikeouts since they think he has the stuff to do it, and they believe he will start to increase the strikeout total once he more consistently gets ahead of hitters so he can get to his quality out pitches.

Outlook: The Indians feel Salazar had a year last year in Lake County that was very similar to the seasons that fellow right-handers Jeanmar Gomez and Hector Rondon had when they passed through there at the same age in 2007. He really had a very good season for a guy who was 19 years old and very young for the league, and even better is he showed much improvement as the season went along by making strides with his delivery and strike throwing. He is a sleeper prospect to watch who has some helium, and should pitch in the starting rotation for High-A Kinston, or due to starting depth in the system could begin the year in Low-A Lake County but move quickly to Kinston.

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Staff Report
November 22, 2011

The major headline from the five-year renewal of baseball's labor agreement is that the sport is now assured of 21 straight years without a strike or lockout, the longest period of labor peace since the beginning of collective bargaining.

And from the broadest perspective, the sport will continue to operate for the next five years pretty much as it has for the previous 16.

But for those who work in scouting and player development, sea changes are coming to the draft and the international market. While baseball won't have a hard slotting system present in other sports—in which every selection in a draft gets a designated, non-negotiable bonus payment—teams will have specified budgets for drafts and international signings.

The recommended budgets were expected. The severity of the punishment for exceeding those budgets perhaps was not.

Under the new system, each club will get an aggregate bonus pool for the first 10 rounds of the draft, based on all of its picks—each of which will be assigned a value. While clubs will not be required to stick to the value of each pick, they will be expected to come in under the overall budget number.

"I think it will make a difference; you're no longer going to be able to sign players after top rounds," one National League crosschecker said via text message. "Teams with the philosophy to spend and accept risks no longer benefit, and it hurts small-market clubs who choose to develop organization through draft.

"I'm not excited about this . . . More kids will end up in college, similar to pre-2005. The bar has been set high on payout of high school players. If a player slips to the third round, the chances of signing him away from an SEC or ACC school will be very slim now. Hey, at least it will be fun again to scout Team USA and the Cape (Cod League)."

College baseball looks like it could be a major winner as a result of this agreement. UCLA coach John Savage watched as three of his top recruits—righthander Joe Ross, third baseman Tyler Goeddel and catcher Austin Hedges—signed for a combined $7.25 million within the final hour of the 2011 signing deadline. The new rules could direct more marquee players to college.

"I think the last couple of years, there's been a lot of high school players that get substantial money who normally would have gone to school where they were picked," Savage said. "So I think you'll see a little less of that, because the consequences will be heavy, in terms of loss of draft picks and financial penalty.
"I think you'd be foolish to think that it's college baseball-driven; we all know it's not. But from a party that's heavily involved in this decision, it looks like it was a good day for college baseball."

Teams that exceed the signing budget by 0-5 percent will pay a 75 percent tax on the overage. Teams that go over by 5-10 percent will pay the same tax and lose a first-round pick in the next draft. Teams that go over by 10-15 percent will pay a 100 percent tax and lose a first- and second-round pick. And finally, teams that go over by more than 15 percent will pay the 100 percent tax and lose their first-round picks in the next two drafts.

"I'm reserving judgment on the draft, but I think guys out of high school will still get good money," one veteran agent said. "I want to see how it works but it was getting ridiculous . . . Your opportunity costs were starting to really climb, you're spending $10 million on a draft class and if you're lucky you're getting five players to the majors, two of those for a cup of coffee. So you're talking $2 million per big leaguer, and that's a lot to pay for talent."

International signings will have a similar pool, with similar penalties. Going over by 0-5 percent kicks in the 75 percent tax; 5-10 percent includes the same tax and a loss of the right to sign more than one player for a bonus of more than $500,000. Go over by 10-15 percent and a team incurs the 100 percent tax and can't sign any player for more than $500,000. Going over by more than 15 percent draws the 100 percent tax and prohibition to sign any player for more than $250,000.

"In the amateur talent acquisition area, we not only made economic reforms that we think will help our weakest clubs have access to talent at a truly affordable price, but we went beyond those economic issues, in some cases at the urging of the MLBPA, to do things like awarding extra picks to teams that have performed poorly in order to improve the overall competitive balance of the game," MLB executive vice president of labor relations and human resources Rob Manfred said at the press conference announcing the deal.

Fix The Draft

For years, people in baseball—including Baseball America—had called for various ideas to tweak the draft. Such talks usually increased as the renewal of a labor deal approached, but other issues inevitably took center stage and the draft was left for later. This time around, commissioner Bud Selig made draft changes an emphasis in Major League Baseball's negotiating position, and the sport's peace in larger issues left time to tackle the issue.

In addition to the signing bonus pool, the new CBA also changes free agent compensation and seeks to award more picks to low-revenue teams.

Starting in 2012, the familiar Type A and Type B free agents, based on the Elias ranking system, will be eliminated. Now the only free agents subject to compensation will be those who are offered contracts equal to the average salary of the 125 highest-paid players in the game as they enter the free-agent process. Players also have to be with a team for an entire season to be subject to compensation, so pending free agents who are traded at midseason will not generate extra picks for the teams that acquire them.

A team that signs one of those free agents will give up its first-round pick. Unlike before, when the top 15 overall picks were protected, now only the top 10 are protected. In those cases, the team will lose its second-highest selection (not necessarily its second-round pick, as before).

There's also a lottery for six extra picks following both the first and second rounds. Teams that are in the bottom 10 in revenue and/or market size go into a pool for six picks after the first round, with odds of winning based on the prior season's winning percentage. Teams that don't get one of those picks—and any other team that receives money from revenue sharing—then goes into another lottery for six picks after the second round. The odds of winning are based on prior season winning percentage.

A couple of other notable draft changes:

• The draft will continue to be conducted in June, but the signing deadline will be moved to a date between July 12-18, depending on the date of the All-Star Game. Since 2007, the deadline has been in mid-August.

"I think that's a win-win for everyone," Savage said. "The guys that want to go out will go out. They'll be able to get out in their short seasons and play right away. I think Major League Baseball will like that. It's also a win on the college side; it gives you a little time to recover (from unexpected draft losses). It at least gives you 60 days, in some cases 90 days, to re-evaluate where you're at, roster-wise, and if you do have money available you can go out and get somebody at that time."

• No more major league deals, as drafted players may only sign minor league contracts.

• Free-agent compensation picks awarded by lottery "may be assigned" by a club, which would seem to indicate they can be traded. If correct, that would be a draft first.

• The top 200 prospects will be subject to a predraft drug test and will participate in a predraft medical program as well.

International Changes Coming

The changes to the amateur scene also affect things internationally, with a cap for the 2012-2013 signing period. Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports reported that the cap will be $2.9 million for all teams in the first year, and it will be adjusted for subsequent years based on winning percentage.

The penalties are as noted above, and the agreement says the penalties will increase in 2014-15 "if a draft or drafts is not agreed to by July 2014." Several sources said an international draft is a clear goal in the next few years.

Starting with the 2013-14 signing period (July 2, 2013-June 15, 2014), teams will be allowed to trade a portion of their international cap space, subject to certain (though unspecified) restrictions.

Lastoria's take on the new CBA:

Wednesday, November 23, 2011

The new CBA and how it affects the Indians

11:20 AM Tony

Major League Baseball and the Player’s Union unveiled a new Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) yesterday which will maintain labor peace for at least another five years. When this new agreement expires in 2016 there will have been 21 consecutive years of labor peace in the sport, which is something to be proud of when you consider some of the labor wars that have resulted in other sports in the past few years.

The new CBA brings a lot of good to the game as it will now include an additional wild card for each league – something which helps the Indians – and also adds or changes much needed things like the use of more replay for fair/foul and trapped ball calls, free agent compensation, minimum salary requirements, and more.

But the big changes were to the draft and international market; two things which will drastically affect how every team operates in both areas going forward, especially the Indians. Here are some random thoughts on those changes and how they may affect the Indians:

The biggest change is how teams will be capped on what they can spend on a draft before they are penalized with taxes or the loss of picks. For the upcoming 2012 Draft teams will be given a bonus pool of $4.5 million to $11.5 million based on where they are in the draft order and how many picks they have. The Astros have the #1 pick so will get the $11.5 million pool and the amount will go down from there until the last team which gets $4.5 million. The bonus pool applies to all picks signed in the first ten rounds plus any overage on picks signed after the 10th round in excess of $100K. If a team is 0-5% over their bonus pool they pay a 75% tax, if they are 5-10% over they pay a 75% tax and lose a 1st round pick the following year, if they are 10-15% over they pay a 100% tax and lose a 1st and 2nd round pick the following year, and if they are 15% or more over they pay a 100% tax and lose two 1st round picks.

Ouch. Those new draft stipulations with the taxes and loss of picks are harsh. It remains to be seen just how harsh they are as the total bonus pool is rather high, so teams should still be able to sign most of their picks without penalty. But say good-bye to the days of taking risks later in the draft after the 10th round as it will be near impossible for teams to sign any player for big money after the top ten rounds. For example, in 2008 the Indians signed 16th rounder left-handed pitcher T.J. House for $750K and 22nd rounder right-handed pitcher Bryce Stowell for $725K. Under the rules of the new agreement both of them could only sign for a maximum of $100K and anything over that would be added to their bonus pool for the top ten picks. That means almost $1.3 million from those two signings would have come directly off their bonus pool. Considering they picked late in the draft and spent about $4.7 million on their top ten picks in 2008, it would have resulted in a severe overage to the bonus pool and likely resulted in a tax and loss of picks. Obviously they would not have allowed this to happen, so the end result is they would not have signed House, Stowell and/or some of the other top ten picks.

And that is the problem with the new draft rules in the CBA. The league and Player’s Union will say that teams can still freely spend whatever they want on any player – which is true - but what the changes do is severely limit the quantity and quality of talent they can draft and sign. The top talent costs a lot, and if a team wants to draft that top talent and take the risk by spending money on bonuses for them they should be able to do so without restrictions. Yes, the new bonus pool will probably help level out some of the spending which had gotten out of control the last few years (give thanks to Neil Huntington and the Pirates for this), but this rule is essentially only helping the owners keep more money in their pockets. It hurts the teams and hurts the players as a greater amount of higher profile picks will now go to or return to college. Teams will have fewer opportunities to take more risks throughout the draft as their creativity will be stunted since or the most part the players taken after the 10th round will have to be signable players who go for slot.

The college coaches have to be celebrating right now as what MLB effectively just did was push a lot of talent to school. It is great that a lot of these kids out of high school will now go to college where they can get an education and also continue to improve, but going to college will not necessarily make them better players. There is no proof that going to college will make anyone player better, in fact for pitchers it is argued it can hurt some of them because they can be extremely overworked which puts them in danger of injury. There is no clear path to the big leagues as it can be argued that getting players into a professional environment with better training, coaching, nutrition, facilities, and so on is better for these high school players in the long run. The top high school talent will still sign, but say good-bye to those mid to upper high school talents teams had been taking risks on signing in recent years.

How does this affect the Indians? Well, they like a lot of other small to mid-market teams felt they could create a competitive advantage by “outscouting” teams. By spending a lot of resources on the draft to get the elite players they felt it was their one area to be ahead in the game of teams like the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, and so on. In recent years the Red Sox and others have gotten smarter and realized the draft is important, so that competitive advantage has shrunk, but it was still a playing ground where teams like the Indians could sign the players they wanted as long as they picked them. With the restrictions set by the bonus pool and to the top ten rounds, the Indians are now limited a lot more by what they can do in the draft. They can no longer really go above and beyond what a bigger market team may do in fear of drastic taxes and the loss of picks.

One thing I have not seen yet from the CBA is if the picks in the first three rounds are still protected. If so, you could see a lot of teams forego signing some of their first three picks and instead use that money to sign picks in later rounds. For example, in the 2012 Draft the Indians could sign their 1st rounder but elect not to sign their 2nd and 3rd rounder so they have more money to sign other players from the 4th to 10th round and maybe cover some of the overage from some picks they sign after the 10th round. Not only would this allow them to have extra money for later round picks, but it would also give them a 2nd and 3rd round pick as compensation in the 2013 Draft and more money in their bonus pool. That seems too easy of a way to manipulate things so maybe there are some parameters in place to avoid all of this, but if not I would not be surprised to see teams do this.

Teams can now no longer give drafted players Major League deals. This does not really affect the Indians too much as they were not big proponents of doling out Major League deals to first round picks. Of late teams have been more willing to sign players to Major League deals as it helps spread the signing bonus over a few years and helps the players get some additional perks. But these deals can often hurt a team as they have to carry a player around on the 40-man roster who may be a year or two away and may never reach the big leagues. The Indians learned this lesson nine years ago when they drafted Jeremy Guthrie with their 1st round pick in 2002 and gave him a Major League deal. Because he was signed to a Major League deal it only gave the Indians four years to keep him around before he had to stick on a 25-man roster, and they subsequently lost him after the 2006 season. In most cases clubs can control young talent for at least six or seven years when you include the three options that can be used when they are on a 40-man roster plus the three to four years they can be in the minors without having to be added to the 40-man roster. Had Guthrie been signed to a regular minor league deal with a bonus he probably would never have been rostered until 2004 or 2005 and thus would have been able to stick around an additional two or three years before being under the roster crunch because he was out of options. In a nutshell, this is a good change and essentially just saves the teams from themselves as the Major League deals were just not needed (or smart).

The draft signing deadline date has been moved up from August 15th to a date between July 12th and July 18th. Hallelujah! The date would have just been fixed at July 15th, but with the All Star game around then Major League Baseball wanted some flexibility to be able to change the date by a few days either way so as to not conflict with the midsummer classic. The last thing they wanted during the three day All Star period was teams spending all of their time scrambling to sign picks at the deadline. This was a much needed change as anyone who has seen what has gone down the last two years with the August signing deadline could see clear as day how much of a charade the whole thing had become. The big money first round picks or way overslot later round picks all waited until the deadline date to sign or it was the date that the league allowed teams to sign the players due to their way overslot bonuses. Hopefully this change will also allow teams to more freely announce deals as they happen rather than have to sit on them for days or weeks until the league says they can. Most importantly, it all but guarantees that newly drafted players will get out to short season ball and play a significant amount of games in their first summer. That is a win-win for the player and the organization.

There was also a significant change made on the international front where teams will have a $2.9 million cap on international bonus spending. Teams that go over that amount will be taxed and have their bonus budget for the next signing period reduced. This should help a team like the Indians as they have mostly operated under a $2 to $3 million international budget in recent years, so they can surely stay within those signing parameters. They have often avoided the big name signings because they were way overpriced and the market had become ridiculous, so now with the new bonus pool it will maybe level out some of the spending among other teams and get the market more in line. This could help them be in the running for more high profile players they may otherwise not have been in on in the past.

There have also reportedly been some changes to Super 2 status where more players will be eligible for, though no specifics have been provided yet on what the change was. If I were to guess it will simply be that less service time will be required for players with more than two years but less than three years of Major League service. Also, there reportedly are some changes to the fourth option year rule and outright assignments, but again, I am not privy to what those changes are at this time.

Bottom line, the new CBA offers up a lot of good things for the game, but when it comes to the changes made to the draft, from the outset it looks like it will hurt teams like the Indians. We will not really know for sure until this year’s draft occurs how much it affects things, but the good thing is there appears to be a good rapport between the league and Player’s Union where if this turns out to be a disaster that they could amend some of these changes after a couple of years.

Still no one kicked off the 40 man roster to make room for Grady. There are still 41 names on the list. Think anyone would draft Nick Weglarz who is no longer a kid: he's 24 and just concluded a dreadful season in AA, putting up numbers far worse than he previous tries there; injured for about half the season which is not uncommon for him; and still can't really play any defensive position.

2008 games played: 106 ops: 828
2009 games played: 105 ops: 808
2010 games played: 87 ops: 893
2011 games played: 41 ops: 666

The games played numbers are seriously deficient. I think he's established pretty securetly that he is not going to be a reliable daily player.

Nothing very exciting about Thomas Neal, OF we got from the Giants for O Cabrera and stuck on the 40-man roster. Compared to Weglarz:

He's RH vs. NW another lefty
They're both 24
In AAA in 2011 is OPS was 734, not very good
In 2011 he played only 70 games, also was hurt
In previous seasons he's played full years.
In 2010 in AA his OPS was 799, almost good.
In 2009 in HiA his OPS was 1010, which is nice but pretty irrelevant.

BA's first Pre-Rule 5 story lists potential draftees. Stowell and McPherson feature among the top couple dozen:

T.J. McFarland, lhp, and Bryce Stowell, rhp, Indians: A 2007 fourth-round pick, McFarland hasn't picked up velocity as a pro. He still touches the low 90s but mostly resides in the upper 80s with his sinker. He has a fringy slider and solid-average changeup that help him get groundballs (2.5 groundouts for every airout), and he gave up just nine home runs in 137 innings at Double-A Akron. He's a fifth-starter type or a lefty specialist, and lefthanded hitters posted a .624 OPS against him in the Eastern League. Stowell had an elbow injury in 2010 that lingered into 2011, and he pitched half a season, making 24 appearances. He finished in Double-A and struck out 57 in 39 innings overall. His fastball has hit 99 mph in the past, though his velocity was down this year to the low to mid-90s. His fastball tends to be fairly straight, and his slider and changeup are fringy, so he's more of a set-up type than a potential closer despite his power stuff.