Keep biting off these wins in April and 90 games is much more realistically achieved.

Today we are at 13-5.

77-67 the rest of the way gets to 90.

In contrast, the Twins have to go 84-60.

So we're 21-11, which gives us a great head start. But, no games yet with Yankees or with Texas. RedSox are probably not going to be in a slump when we play them again. We've not proven yet we can beat the 2 favorites in the Central (1-4 vs Twins and Sox) and at least one of Minnesota and Chicago is likely to put things together eventually while we have lots more matchups with them.

All that we have cinched so far are: 70 wins (49-81 is all that requires); we'll be above 500 through May and into June.

The biggest reasons to think we can continue winning half or more of our games is the pleasant discovery d that we have a large cohort of capable but not overpowering pitchers; our defense is not crap so we shouldn't blow too many winnable games.

Our offense sputters off and on but if Choo and Santana hit the way we expect them to the offense should we sufficient. Management's willingness to promote White before the typical June date suggests that some "aggressive" steps may be taken to keep the team in contention. We lack a true "ace"and I don't think Masterson is ever going to convince experts that he can retire left-handers. And we don't know how he and Tomlin and White and Carrasco will bounce back when have inevitable slumps.

But the start means some positive thinking by the players. And the manager knows how to motivate and how to play up to or beyond his talent.

None of which of course is an answer to "how many games will the Indians win this season?" My original answer was somewhere in the low 70 range like most everyone else. And I have to be realistic and suggest that we're still not necessarily a 500 team for the final 130 games, but it is nice to assume that we are and thus end up with 86 wins. But that is so much more than I originally guessed that I can't convince myself, so I'll say 83-79 and add that with Pomeranz joining the rotation in 2011 and Chisenhall and Kipnis in the lineup and some additional power bullpen arms (Putnam, Lee and Hagadone) next year should be very good

Testing Preferences

WAHOO! JOEZ has arrived!

Looks like the 70-80 crowd has a very good chance of being correct on this one.

Another Tribe season is in the books. All things considered, how would you grade their performance this year?

Tough to quantify because of all the injuries and all the adversities but I'd go c-b.

Hard to rate 80-82 anything higher than a low B or lower than a straight C. We discovered:

postivites

Asdrubal Cabrera can be a team centerpiece. Carlos Santana can contribute a lot to the offense even with a sub-250 average. Brantley can be a tolerably adequate OF (or more?). Jason Kipnis probably will be a solid bat. Justin Masterson can be a good No. 2 or No. 3 starter for about 90% of a season. Josh Tomlin despite lack of "stuff" can be a solid back of the rotation starter. Joe Smith, Vinnie Pestano are solid bullpen depth. Lou Marson is a good No. 2 catcher or a No. 1 on a team with lots of offene. Manny Acta knows how to honor players and coaches for careers well spent.

negatives:

Fausto Carmona is at best a back of rotation pitcher. Tony Sipp is too prone to long balls to be in the back of the bullpen. Grady Sizemore is probably finished. Matt LaPorta makes no progress. No RH bats in the majors or in the minors. Starting depth depleted to get Ubaldo. Travis Hafner will not rebound to 2007 form during this lifetime.

unknowns:

Ubaldo Jiminez an ace or The new Carmona? Just a unlucky season or is Choo breaking down now too? Lonnie Chisenhall's ceiling. Is the REAL David Huff the guy who had a handful of good starts in August or the guy who pitched for us in 2010 and Sept 2011? Chris Perez a closer for the long haul?
Jeanmar Gomez a No. 5 starter? Chen Lee, Zach Putnam, Nick Hagadone big league bullpen-ready?

The fact that Masterson took a huge leap forward, Ubaldo has all that upside, Tomlin can be counted on to be a solid starter - and of course that bullpen came a long ways, points to all kinds of improvement this year.

When your pitching is the bedrock of your team, that's a good thing.

Add to the offense (I have lots of hope for Kipnis and Chisenhall as well) and we'll really have something.

They're a .500 team. C is a .500 grade.

Two bad we can't award "6 weeks" and semester grades.....



There was some definite "A" action.

Stole this from the PD:

Grady Sizemore: Should Cleveland Indians pick up option year on his contract; find cheaper way to keep him; say good-bye? Poll

Published: Thursday, October 06, 2011, 5:15 PM Updated: Thursday, October 06, 2011, 5:26 PM

By Starting Blocks


CLEVELAND, Ohio -- Three years ago, few baseball observers would have foreseen this situation.

Center fielder Grady Sizemore has one year left on his contract, due to play him $8,500,000. The Indians hold an option on the deal, however. They can decline to pick up the option and pay Sizemore, 29, a $500,000 buyout, making him a free agent eligible to sign with any team.

Cleveland could also decline the option and try to sign Sizemore to a much smaller pact, maybe a one-year deal for $2, 3 or 4 million, with performance-based incentive clauses.

Sizemore was regarded by many as one of the best players in baseball when he made consecutive American League all-star teams in 2006-07-08. His last three seasons, though, have essentially been ruined by injuries.

The most worrisome of Sizemore's health issues has been his recurring knee problems. This Monday, he had arthroscopic surgery on his right knee performed by Dr. Richard Steadman, as Plain Dealer Indians beat writer Paul Hoynes wrote. Steadman also did the microfracture surgery on Sizemore's left knee on June 4, 2010.

Hoynes wrote:

In the last three years, Sizemore has had five operations: one on his left elbow, two on his left groin, one on his right knee and one on his left knee. The one-time iron man has broken down spectacularly.


Sizemore was 21 when he made his major league with the Indians on July 21, 2004. He hit .246 with four home runs in 138 at bats, playing 43 games.

Sizemore emerged as an impact player in 2005. In the four-season stretch from 2005-08, he missed just nine games, and besides the three all-star selections, won two Gold Glove Awards.

From 2005-08, Sizemore hit .281. The left-handed leadoff hitter averaged 116 runs scored and 81 RBI a season. Sizemore's average season worked out to 41 doubles, eight triples, 27 home runs, 82 walks and 29 stolen bases in 37 attempts. He was so productive that his 143 strikeouts per campaign barely mattered.

The last three years, though, Sizemore's games played dipped to 106 in 2009, 33 in 2010 and 71 this season. He batted .248, .211 and .224, respectively. That's .234 overall in 832 at bats, with 122 runs, 47 doubles, nine triples, 28 homers and 109 RBI. He stole 17 bases in 29 tries, including none in just two attempts this season, when he also had hernia surgery. In the three seasons, Sizemore drew 87 walks and struck out 212 times.

Do the Indians pick up Sizemore's option, hoping that he can have reasonable health and maybe approach his old form? Do they say to him, "No, but here, take this smaller one-year deal, and show us and all of baseball you're still a good player, and that you deserve a big contract a year from now."?

The Indians have until three days after the end of the World Series to decide whether or not to pick up Sizemore's contract.

I voted for the option. No brainer.

I personally would not pick up the option, but I think the Indians will.

My first preference is to decline and re-negotiate, but will be surprised if that happens.

Don't think he will stay healthy. Will not be a major factor in 2012 IMO.

I've been influenced by Kenm, as well as baseball and life logic.

I say Dolan saves the $$.

It's a way better than 50-50 gamble on Dolan's part for it eventually being shown as him making the right move.

And he'll be saving money as opposed to spending money.

Sizemore might get more than the option $$ elsewhere, but my confidence in him returning to a value of even a "peanuts" 9 million is pretty thin.

His physical soundness is in question, as well as his ability to contribute.



He's a career .269 hitter now, and has not even attained THAT average since 2007 when he hit .277. He's no longer a base running threat.

.248, .211 and .224 in the albeit limited three last seasons.

I'm a gambler, and I look for longshots in my exotic wagers.

I'd have a hard time putting Sizemore in a Superfecta combo, let alone a Trifecta or Quinella or Exacta.