Re: Draft Folder

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Expect A Manic Monday

Posted Aug. 15, 2011 2:41 am by Jim Callis

Baseball begins the day of the signing deadline with 23 of the 33 first-round picks still negotiating rather than playing. Eleven of 27 supplemental first-rounders also haven't come to terms, and 98 of the 331 selections in the first 10 rounds have yet to turn pro.

Much of that is by design. As it has since 2000, MLB has recommended specific bonuses for each pick in the first five rounds and a maximum for all subsequent choices (those guidelines are available for BA subscribers here). This year, the commissioner's office has asked clubs to refrain from offering more than those recommendations to players—especially first-rounders and college juniors—for as long as possible. Advisers have confirmed that some first-rounders had yet to be offered more than slot money before deadine day.

Additionally, MLB is trying to clamp down on the amount of bonus information unveiled before tonight's midnight ET deadline. The idea is to prevent players from using other above-slot bonuses as leverage. Two advisers told Baseball America on Sunday that teams threatened to scrap as-yet-announced deals if terms leaked out before the deadline.

Nevertheless, compared to the international amateur and major league free-agent markets, the draft remains the biggest bargain in talent acquistion. The bottom line is that teams want to sign their draftees and will pay for talent.

And they will pay dearly today. Six of the top seven choices remain unsigned—Gerrit Cole (No. 1, Pirates), Danny Hultzen (No. 2, Mariners), Dylan Bundy (No. 4, Orioles), Bubba Starling (No. 5, Royals), Anthony Rendon (No. 6, Nationals), Archie Bradley (No. 7, Diamondbacks)—and could command big league contracts and two-sport deals totaling $45 million or more. It may require at least $2.5 million each to sign four high schoolers taken near the end of the first round: Tyler Beede (No. 21, Blue Jays), Joe Ross (No. 25, Padres), Blake SWihart (No. 26, Red Sox) and Robert Stephenson (No. 27, Reds).

It's possible that all 33 first-rounders will have signed by the end of the day for something in the neighborhood of $95 million in bonuses and guaranteed salaries included in major league contracts.

Last year, teams combined to spend $91.1 million on bonuses on the final day of the signing period, and a total of $195.8 million on bonuses overall. Both of those figures are records that figure to be obliterated in 2011.

Also in jeopardy is the single-team bonus mark of $11,927,200 set by the 2010 Nationals. The Blue Jays already have spent more than $5 million and have yet to sign Beede and six other picks in the first 10 rounds.

The most prominent prospects not expected to turn pro are Pirates second-rounder Josh Bell and Nationals third-rounder Matt Purke. An outfielder from Dallas Jesuit HS, Bell was the best all-around prep hitter in the draft, but his mother is a college professor and wants him to attend the University of Texas. Industry insiders question whether he'd sign for even an eight-figure bonus.

The Rangers drafted Purke 14th overall out of high school in 2009 and agreed to a $6 million bonus, but MLB controlled the team's finances and killed the deal. Purke instead attended Texas Christian, and he entered 2011 as Baseball America's third-rated draft prospect behind Rendon and Cole. After going 16-0 as a freshman, he had shoulder, back and blister problems as a draft-eligible sophomore this spring. Rather than settle for less than Texas offered him, he's more likely to take his chances on going at or near the top of the 2012 draft.

Re: Draft Folder

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Tony on the next 13:35

The 2011 Draft signing deadline is upon us

10:06 AM Tony No comments


Dillon Peters
The draft signing deadline is tonight at midnight.

What this means is all players from the 2011 Draft must be signed by 11:59:59 p.m. EST tonight or teams can no longer sign them and the players go right back into the draft pool next year or when they are qualified to enter again. The entire draft process would start all over again for them.

The only exception to the signing deadline is college seniors can be signed after the August 15th deadline, though this usually does not apply to anyone since college seniors are signed well before the deadline because of their limited leverage.

With the signing deadline (finally) upon us, the Indians go into this final day with a couple of high profile players still unsigned. First round pick shortstop Francisco Lindor and second round pick right-handed pitcher Dillon Howard are still unsigned, and the only other unsigned pick in the Indians' first 16 rounds is eighth round pick left-handed pitcher Stephen Tarpley. The only other unsigned high profile draft pick for the Indians highly regarded by Baseball America and Perfect Game is 20th round pick left-handed pitcher Dillon Peters.

All of the unsigned high profile picks are high school players, which is of no surprise. These are players that have the option of attending a big time college program so their asking price is high. They will all also command overslot money, which even if they already have agreed to terms their signings may have been delayed by MLB until today to try and control the overslot spending and also avoid other players/agents from seeing the bonus amounts they signed for so as to not start a game of “can you top this” with the signing bonuses.

Of the players listed above, the Indians are very much expected to sign both Lindor and Howard. Both of the signings will likely go right down to the last second tonight, but it would be a complete shock if both are not signed by the time the clock strikes midnight.

Yes, Lindor and his agent have done some posturing in the media of late saying he would consider going to a junior college this year and go back into the draft next year. His agent negotiated a big deal last year for Tigers supplemental first round pick third baseman Nick Castellanos and got him a record $3.45 million in that round of the draft. So there is no doubt he has and will continue to play hardball up until the deadline tonight.

That having been said, Lindor is already a top ten pick and risks a ton going back to school even if next year’s draft is consider weaker. When the dust settles tonight he should be an Indian.

It has widely been expected that Howard sill sign. The head coach at the University of Arkansas mentioned a few weeks back that he expected Howard to sign, which is something that is not said by a coach unless he knew something. It is possible he had already received some sort of official notification from Howard or his representation that he intends to sign. Considering the money he will likely command, it is possible he and the Indians already have some sort of deal in place but they are just waiting for MLB to approve it.

As for Tarpley and Peters, things are a lot more uncertain.

With Tarpley being one of the Indians top ten picks, there is a good chance he is signed. The Indians have maintained all along they intend to sign all of their top ten picks, which is what they said and did last year, so it would be surprising if something did not materialize with him and the Indians today. It will take a significant amount to sign him, though nowhere near that rumored $3 million amount floating around the internet last week.

Peters may be a lower pick than Tarpley, but he is actually considered the better talent right now. He slid for signability reasons as he has a very strong commitment to the University of Texas and will command big money. If the Indians sign him, he may end up with the third highest bonus in their entire draft next to Lindor and Howard. It does not look promising with him, maybe 50-50 at best that he signs. It may come down to him or Tarpley.

Either way, everything will be known within the next 12 hours or so. Purely speculating here, if I were a betting man I’d say Tarpley gets announced sometime this afternoon and that Howard and Lindor are announced right at midnight. I’ll go out on a limb that Peters is also signed, though I could be very wrong on that one.

I’ll be posting the signings as they happen today, so be sure to check back. To view all signings and the 2011 Draft recap click on the "Draft" tab at the top of the page, then "Draft History" and then "2011". Here is the direct link to it.

Re: Draft Folder

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Just listened to BA Podcast discussion of Callis and about today's draft signing possibilities.

They expect Lindor and Howard both to sign at least $2,000,000 each, maybe more, could be $3M for Lindor and since Howard is represented by Boras Inc. anything goes. Both will go down to the wire but expect both to sign.

Steven Tarpley will take "at least Supplemental 1st round money" to sign.

Kevin Brady, Dillon Peters, Tyler Sparks and someone else who I didn't catch are good players but will be tought to get. Could be backups if some of the top 3 don't sign; or perhaps could be additional signings.

Expect action at the end of the day.

Re: Draft Folder

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Indians sign Howard

11:04 PM Tony No comments


Dillon Howard
(Photo: Perfect Game)
While nothing is official, according to ESPN's Keith Law the Indians have signed 2nd round pick right-handed pitcher Dillon Howard. While he was committed to the University of Arkansas, it was widely expected since the end of June that he would sign with the Indians. His addition to the Indians farm system will put him up near the top of the class, if not the top, as far as pitchers go in the system when rankings come out for next year.